BLNR Price Projection?

[Special-K7]

Hi all, I know that this is completely speculative, but I wanted to get a consensus as to whether the BLNR will rise in price or decline slowly? No purchase history here so grey is my only option and have a price target of around 12k USD.

[Collector2019]

It seems blnr is being produced in larger quantities when compared to blro. I’d speculate decline in grey prices in 2020 as demand soften as a result of end users getting them at retail.


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[georgekart]

Originally Posted by Collector2019

It seems blnr is being produced in larger quantities when compared to blro. I’d speculate decline in grey prices in 2020 as demand soften as a result of end users getting them at retail.


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This. BLNR on jubilee seems to be produced in high quantities to replace both BLNR and LN. And as such the demand is not much higher than supply. Combine with a price raise and more customers getting them at MSRP with less wait, I think it will go down. Not below MSRP, but definitely down.

[2nastie]

If you have a price target of $12,000 USD and buying grey is your only option then you are limited to those criterias only.

Right now the majority of the BLNR jubilee (if not all) on the grey market is trading above $12,000. So it would mean you may be out of luck.

If the market goes back up, then it's still above your $12,000 limit.

If the market adjust further downwards then you will would be able to purchase one when it hits your threshold.

Based on your question, a potential price rise will not alter your current situation. However, with steady flow and slightly lower demand than when it first launched, it appears the BLNR jubilee will be trending to a lower price range. I say buy it at the price you comfortable with. If you are going to wear it, if and when it gets to $12,000 range, the ups and downs are irrelevant afterwards.

[pj1369]

I think it will get to $12k in next 18-24 months barring any Rolex surprises.


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[Easy E]

It’s worth a shot to go into an AD and ask for one. Be sincere, you never know you might get one at list. For sure, 100%, you won’t if you don’t go.

[Hotrod297]

$12K or less would be great!
But I'm speculating $13K range later this year.
Rolex, Please keep pumping them out...LOL

[fsprow]

I suggest consulting an ouija board or a palm reader. No one has any idea.

[exador]

Still a way to go before hitting $12k

[Wmrcer]

My guess 12-13k by end of summer. Have a feeling rolex plans to really pump out product this year. Btw all speculation.

[peterpl]

6-12 months it will be in the 12s easily - already some private sales in the mid-high 12s now.

Probably 11s actually in 6-12 months time.

[sambb]

i predict 11-12 by summer end. esp if there is a decline in stock market. will even be lower after US presidential election depending on outcome and economy.

[mdx77]

Don’t look now but David SW and MANY other grey dealers jacked their prices too Jan 1.....

[Wmrcer]

Originally Posted by sambb

i predict 11-12 by summer end. esp if there is a decline in stock market. will even be lower after US presidential election depending on outcome and economy.

On second thought I agree aswell. 11-12k by end of summer. Couple already listed in the 13k range.

[Dougiebaby]

Originally Posted by Special-K7

Hi all, I know that this is completely speculative, but I wanted to get a consensus as to whether the BLNR will rise in price or decline slowly? No purchase history here so grey is my only option and have a price target of around 12k USD.

Are you talking about lightly used BLNRs at greys or new?

If used, I wouldn’t be surprised if they hit $12ish in 12-18 months. If new, I would expect them to hit $13ish in that same timeframe.

This is barring one thing...

There have been several speculating the BLNR will be discounted at Basel 2020 and replaced with a black. If this happens, then the BLNR jubilee will increase in price.


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[BigBoy17]

Might dip lower if another variant is offered at basel

[Special-K7]

Originally Posted by Dougiebaby

Are you talking about lightly used BLNRs at greys or new?

If used, I wouldn’t be surprised if they hit $12ish in 12-18 months. If new, I would expect them to hit $13ish in that same timeframe.

This is barring one thing...

There have been several speculating the BLNR will be discounted at Basel 2020 and replaced with a black. If this happens, then the BLNR jubilee will increase in price.


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Either used or new. I’ve been in between a Sub or a DJ41 so I figured the BLN solves both issues in one.

[Dlong]

Originally Posted by mdx77

Don’t look now but David SW and MANY other grey dealers jacked their prices too Jan 1.....

Pigs get fed. Hogs go to slaughter.

[OIH]

Originally Posted by Dlong

Pigs get fed. Hogs go to slaughter.

Settle down guy

[Mystro]

Watch what DavidSW is doing with pricing. He is a expert and long term player in the industry. He didn’t get that way by accident and makes his money on market trends.

DavidSW has been moving new 126710BLNR models in the mid to upper $15k range fairly quickly/easily the last few weeks. Today he has replaced last weeks sales with two new 126710BLNR models and are priced full stickers $15,975 and partial stickers for $15,585. These are bank wire prices shipped overnight. David does not discount nor does he need to so his advertised prices are easy to follow for what they are really selling for.

When I see DavidSW pricing at $14.5k then the market trend is in fact lowering by industry leaders but that has not happened. That would be solid empirical evidence at that point as he doesn’t inventory watches for a long time. You will always find the occasional private seller dumping for lower if you want to roll the dice that way.

[pj1369]

Originally Posted by Dougiebaby

Are you talking about lightly used BLNRs at greys or new?

If used, I wouldn’t be surprised if they hit $12ish in 12-18 months. If new, I would expect them to hit $13ish in that same timeframe.

This is barring one thing...

There have been several speculating the BLNR will be discounted at Basel 2020 and replaced with a black. If this happens, then the BLNR jubilee will increase in price.


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I concur. However, let's see what Rolex releases and does over the next 6months. This would all be best case scenario which isn't always the most likely.


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[pj1369]

Originally Posted by Collector2019

It seems blnr is being produced in larger quantities when compared to blro. I’d speculate decline in grey prices in 2020 as demand soften as a result of end users getting them at retail.


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Hi, what are you basing this on? Forum anecdotes or looking at sales channels/sites?


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[Likestheshiny]

Yeah, 12k seems attainable not too long from now. It's one of only two steel GMTs being produced -- they can't stay rare for too much longer.

[pj1369]

Originally Posted by Likestheshiny

Yeah, 12k seems attainable not too long from now. It's one of only two steel GMTs being produced -- they can't stay rare for too much longer.

I agree. However, they also said that about Daytona's several years ago...


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[TswaneNguni]

Above MRSP .Important if you buy grey only .
Have a 116710 BLNR from AD,personally wont pay more than MRSP for it .Luckily in the market there are buyers that keep Daytona/BLRO/BLNR/LV prices high .

[DBlue2018]

These are falling at present imho

[Manu74]

It's worth MSRP, nothing more, nothing less.
Grey prices of Batgirl are coming down sooner and faster than Pepsi, which is far more sought after.

[uncleluck]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Watch what DavidSW is doing with pricing. He is a expert and long term player in the industry. He didn’t get that way by accident and makes his money on market trends.

DavidSW has been moving new 126710BLNR models in the mid to upper $15k range fairly quickly/easily the last few weeks. Today he has replaced last weeks sales with two new 126710BLNR models and are priced full stickers $15,975 and partial stickers for $15,585. These are bank wire prices shipped overnight. David does not discount nor does he need to so his advertised prices are easy to follow for what they are really selling for.

When I see DavidSW pricing at $14.5k then the market trend is in fact lowering by industry leaders but that has not happened. That would be solid empirical evidence at that point as he doesn’t inventory watches for a long time. You will always find the occasional private seller dumping for lower if you want to roll the dice that way.

And it’d be pretty easy for anyone to create a market scenario. Let’s just say a dealer sniffs prices are falling (which they are in the UK for sure and not selling) it’d be easy for a large grey dealer to put prices up and show watches as sold as it gives confidence to buyers to go in. All the time the inflated sold watches are sat in the safe still and the next hook line and sinker buyer who phones up “ah yes, we’ve just had one come in” Put the prices down and people don’t want them & it makes things worse. I can guarantee people would have had more confidence at hugely inflated prices and buy rather than thinking “oh look, they’re under $12k I’m gonna buy now”. They’ll be thinking... they’ve fallen this much they’re on the slide, I don’t want one.

Not saying this is what SW does but I’m sure everything isn’t as black n white as people make out. Only got to watch some of Austin Daniels vids to see just how flooded the grey market is. He does tours of dealers over the world and some of them have 20 blnr’s at silly prices, some of them display one or two but you can bet your butt they have 5 more in the safe of the ‘scarce’ watches.