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13 April 2021, 02:45 AM | #1 |
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seriously... the 15202 selling above $100K new now!!!
did people lose their mind here? i was just trying to buy one 4 months back and was offered couple for $60K... i feel this is not collecting anymore.... it is just ADs and Grey manipulating this market under the orchestration of the brands...
what do you guys think here? shall we completely forget about the likes of the 15202 and the 5711.... |
13 April 2021, 02:54 AM | #2 |
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Meanwhile the Winklevii are sitting nicely on bitcoin billions literally, and Ripple XRP just made lots of people nice speculative money. $100k USD is (oddly enough) nothing in this twilight zone.
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13 April 2021, 03:49 AM | #3 |
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Not manipulating. . .they are just offering inventory at crazy prices. . .nobody has to buy, let alone click the sites
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13 April 2021, 04:23 AM | #4 |
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Hoping to make a quick buck before people find out that the AP brand has been ruined last weekend
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13 April 2021, 04:28 AM | #5 |
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This is an example of MANIPULATION by the grey market. Overnight one single watch went from 50-60k to 85k and now 100k.....
We are eventually going to strangle ourselves if we support purchasing from the grey dealers.... stocks go straight to the greys and end-buyers buy from greys at 2-3x the price while the greys and the ADs split the profit.... Greys make money, ADs make money selling higher than MSRP. Only the final buyer pays through his/her nose for the watch and takes away all the pleasure of owning the watch and spends all the time babysitting the god damn watch to avoid losing the value from scratches/wear and tear... |
13 April 2021, 05:14 AM | #6 |
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A sale represents an agreement between a willing buyer and seller. No evil forces here. Can't blame a seller for asking more than a negotiation might produce. An AP is a totally discretionary purchase.
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13 April 2021, 05:44 AM | #7 | |
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HMHM, I'm not quite ready to call it a manipulated market if the Grays are still bidding for inventory at the traditional 20-25% margins. HOWEVER, I maintain that an enterprising dealer can easily corner the market of Green Daytona, , 15202, FPJ CB with a mere 5M USD working capital for each reference. I don't include 5711 because I have less feel of depth of inventory there. |
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13 April 2021, 05:58 AM | #8 | |
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13 April 2021, 05:58 AM | #9 |
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Lots of free money floating around and a limited number of timepieces to buy. I would absolutely love to own a 15202 but will not have the opportunity to buy one at a price I'm willing to pay. I'm okay with that. Once there are less people willing to pay premiums, these pieces will either sit unpurchased or the prices will come down. At this point, the manufactures are winning and the grey market sellers are winning, so they have no impetus to move from the status quo.
One awesome side effect of the current state of affairs it that people have a ton of money to throw at truly creative independents who are bucking trends, allowing new brands to sell enough pieces to innovate and blossom. That's where my interest lies these days. |
13 April 2021, 07:13 AM | #10 | |
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13 April 2021, 07:22 AM | #11 |
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13 April 2021, 09:47 AM | #12 |
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The madness will never end.
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13 April 2021, 11:23 AM | #13 |
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Just buy a different watch if you’re not happy with the price of the 15202...
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13 April 2021, 11:23 AM | #14 |
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13 April 2021, 11:33 AM | #15 |
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Takuya has one for 88K. A month ago he had it listed for 66K. Then AP discontinued it. It wasn’t on his website and I thought someone bought it but a few weeks later it magically reappeared for 88K. Six months ago you could find a new one for 45K.
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13 April 2021, 11:42 AM | #16 |
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Nice watch but no quick set date and setting the date with the tiny crown is a pain, the watch loses about ten seconds a day so if accuracy matters forget about it. And it’s a scratch magnet. I bought one in 2013 for 21K new from an AD that had it in stock. And I think I sold it for a little less to Justrolexes. The good old days.
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13 April 2021, 11:45 AM | #17 |
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I used to think it won’t end...but that assumed some concept of normalcy.
This latest crap where models are hoarded and prices literally double overnight like a tech IPO is going to destroy the entire market if it doesn’t course correct soon. This is not sustainable and I’m simply not convinced that end consumers are buying at these super inflated prices.
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13 April 2021, 11:47 AM | #18 | |
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13 April 2021, 01:01 PM | #19 |
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don’t see it slowing down anytime soon
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13 April 2021, 03:56 PM | #20 | |
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Pretty soon you'll have people buying fractional shares of a collection of watches that trades as an ETF. You can own 0.01% of a Paul Newman Daytona... enjoy. As the things mentioned above become a store of value or heavily financialized, it's not good for enthusiasts who actually enjoy these things. |
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13 April 2021, 07:54 PM | #21 | |
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13 April 2021, 07:56 PM | #22 |
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13 April 2021, 08:14 PM | #23 |
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It’s so boring nowadays tbh... we go to the stores and all we see is empty cases. No watch to try, rude staffs at ADs (AP boutiques offer the best experience so far). Starting to lose interest in collecting in this opaque market because the balance is so heavy in favour towards the ADs and greys while watch enthusiasts are left to beg for a watch.
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13 April 2021, 08:19 PM | #24 | |
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(That said, I remember when the FPJ Optimum went for $65k just barely a year ago.) |
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13 April 2021, 08:43 PM | #25 |
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It's hard to watch Normal goods/Hobbies turn into Veblen goods/Hype but that was it what is happening to more and more of our beloved models.
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13 April 2021, 09:00 PM | #26 |
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14 April 2021, 12:45 AM | #27 |
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14 April 2021, 12:51 AM | #28 |
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This is the other truism in this conversation. Can't blame buyers for wanting to spend the money that is raining down on their heads. So what if they all like blue dial stainless steel watches that were designed by Gerald Genta in the 1970s and a few other low production watches that have been popularized by Hodinkee and sites like this one.
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14 April 2021, 01:41 AM | #29 |
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I think there is a lot of hate here for no reason. Everyone who has a 15202 right now is cheering. I know I am having just got one at retail a few months ago. People are buying at these prices otherwise they wouldn't all be listed at them.
The average collector won't be able to play in the field anymore. Now it's going to be people who don't care to spend 100k on a 15202. They have the money. That is who they are targeting now. Other brands should be cheering. If people can no longer afford AP, Patek, Rolex, they have no where else to go but other brands. As long as this BS continues where everyone wants the same 3 brands, every other brand is going to fail. |
14 April 2021, 02:12 AM | #30 |
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The other thing that needs to be mentioned, is not all buyers of watches at these prices are buying just because they like the watch and are a true collector. You have a lot of speculators, that are not grey dealers, who purchase at these prices as they anticipate prices to further rise. That will cause prices to keep increasing, REGARDLESS if there is enough value for money in the watch.
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Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos |
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