AP Scarcity

[Xerxes77]

This “New Normality” start with Patek Nautilus few years ago....
Then Rolex sports model become luxury goods and start to be available only to big spender or to older customers...
Now AP became very hard to find maybe not like Patek but I can say more hard to achieve then a sport SS model (not Daytone, SkyDweller blue or GMT BLRO who remain hardest to find)

I think AP are prepared this moments from years ago when decide to close all retailers and remains only with AP Boutique. This are first step due by AP to can control the market. At some point they come with an idea of buying back preowned AP models to can stop devalued AP watch on grey market.

Now we are assisting to a period when all AP SS models are very hard to find and unfortunately will be harder and harder......., to almost impossible to achieve a SS AP model if you are not ready to purchase a Code or something other model who are not selling very good.

Question is: Where you see AP watches in let’s say a year from now regards availability and price on grey market?

I think this is the beginning and AP SS sport models will become almost harder to find like Patek SS sport models.

[GoingPlaces]

So if I were to walk into an AP boutique what pieces am I likely to be able to purchase other than a code? Are offshores easy to get?

[Timelessness]

I think it would be interesting if AP goes the Patek route and starts producing ROs only in PM (or severely limits production of steel pieces), what happens then to the grey-to-retail ratios and existing steel pieces?

[Xerxes77]

Existing SS Royal Pieces has triple value in the last 2 years ...I can buy a ROC 26320 blue dial in 2019 with 19000€...... and now on chrono24 I see is listed at 52000€...... crazy but true... a 15400 RO are 13-14000€ in 2019 and now are around 30000€.....
So, yes, AP plan to reduce sellers and to have control of the selling process work very very good ........
In 2019 you can buy a RO 15202 steel new from Chrono24 with 29-30000€ and now it’s 50-60000€....
I think Offshore will become like Aquanaut for Patek..... more easy to get but not easy.....,
And buying a Code will be necessary to can qualify for a SS RO....
Just my opinion.....

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Xerxes77

Existing SS Royal Pieces has triple value in the last 2 years ...I can buy a ROC 26320 blue dial in 2019 with 19000€...... and now on chrono24 I see is listed at 52000€...... crazy but true... a 15400 RO are 13-14000€ in 2019 and now are around 30000€.....
So, yes, AP plan to reduce sellers and to have control of the selling process work very very good ........
In 2019 you can buy a RO 15202 steel new from Chrono24 with 29-30000€ and now it’s 50-60000€....
I think Offshore will become like Aquanaut for Patek..... more easy to get but not easy.....,
And buying a Code will be necessary to can qualify for a SS RO....
Just my opinion.....

AP also had 3 price increases in 2020 so that factors into everything moving up

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by huncho

AP also had 3 price increases in 2020 so that factors into everything moving up

Yes.... good point....I forgot this.... but now when all AP watches are selling almost by AP Boutique they can control price.....

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Xerxes77

Yes.... good point....I forgot this.... but now when all AP watches are selling almost by AP Boutique they can control price.....

Not only that but it is more revenue to AP, I believe I read somewhere AP sold their watches to ADs at ~30% off MSRP. Now they can keep the entire MSRP, makes sense to me.

[Watchristic]

Originally Posted by Xerxes77

Existing SS Royal Pieces has triple value in the last 2 years ...I can buy a ROC 26320 blue dial in 2019 with 19000€...... and now on chrono24 I see is listed at 52000€...... crazy but true... a 15400 RO are 13-14000€ in 2019 and now are around 30000€.....
So, yes, AP plan to reduce sellers and to have control of the selling process work very very good ........
In 2019 you can buy a RO 15202 steel new from Chrono24 with 29-30000€ and now it’s 50-60000€....
I think Offshore will become like Aquanaut for Patek..... more easy to get but not easy.....,
And buying a Code will be necessary to can qualify for a SS RO....
Just my opinion.....

Don’t think the reference 2019 is accurate as It was difficult back then to source RO 15500 or 15202 from boutique even 15450 in blue was near impossible. In 2019 15500 in blue was trading at 30 or a little below! that’s still 50% mark up.


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[macrowatch]

I think overall, AP is doing a very strong job in distribution channel, product line management, and worse (but still better than others) at innovation.

The two tone ceramic Code is a good example of being rapid in feedback and innovation to get the line to be more desirable. All of this is net positive in my humble opinion for both the brand and existing owners of the brand's products.

Finally, I'd say the NY and BH boutiques still do a relatively decent job making base RO obtainable to mere mortals and getting new people into the brand. I've experienced this first hand. Inversely, I'd say my experience with Patek across various AD's was very clear even as recently as 2019. They were not really interested in new clients.

[thejerseyrock]

I think I told this story to you guys who were here quite a few years ago... but for whatever its worth today...

Somewhere around 2016 or thereabouts, I walked into the the Waldorf Astoria to the Cellini shop (no longer there)..... I said to the guy behind the counter (cary)... "I want to buy an AP Royal Oak Stainless Steel...

He says, "Hang on a minute..."

He walks back out with three watches to show me... AP 15400 blue dial... AP 15400 Black dial.. and......... 15202 Blue dial....

He says, "which one do you want? I can't give you a discount on the 15202 because its a "boutique piece", but heres the (bargain/discount) price on the 15400..."

I tried all three on...

I have a 7.5" wrist. So I took the 15400 blue dial -at a DISCOUNT below list... (15202 looked small)... I like blue and that 15400 size fit best on my wrist.

Any comments on this story, knowing what we knew then, and knowing what we know now?

Weirdest thing is, I still hardly wear that 15400. I wear my Rolex pieces a lot more... more often I just stare at my AP as a piece of art and wondering if I should sell it, considering the potential gain

[VFA]

Originally Posted by thejerseyrock

I think I told this story to you guys who were here quite a few years ago... but for whatever its worth today...

Somewhere around 2016 or thereabouts, I walked into the the Waldorf Astoria to the Cellini shop (no longer there)..... I said to the guy behind the counter (cary)... "I want to buy an AP Royal Oak Stainless Steel...

He says, "Hang on a minute..."

He walks back out with three watches to show me... AP 15400 blue dial... AP 15400 Black dial.. and......... 15202 Blue dial....

He says, "which one do you want? I can't give you a discount on the 15202 because its a "boutique piece", but heres the (bargain/discount) price on the 15400..."

I tried all three on...

I have a 7.5" wrist. So I took the 15400 blue dial -at a DISCOUNT below list... (15202 looked small)... I like blue and that 15400 size fit best on my wrist.

Any comments on this story, knowing what we knew then, and knowing what we know now?

Weirdest thing is, I still hardly wear that 15400. I wear my Rolex pieces a lot more... more often I just stare at my AP as a piece of art and wondering if I should sell it, considering the potential gain

Same here. Walked in to an AP boutique in Italy in 2016. Bought a blue dial 15400st for 17k euros. I still have the and love it. Will never sell.

[RolexEDC]

Good for AP to control supply and price. Maybe they don’t want to sell watches to the potential new customer. I walked into an AP boutique store to inquire about their royal oak sizing. I just want to try on 15450, or 15500 just to see which model I should shoot for. Not even one watch to try on. Asked about an offshore, if they have that to try on. None, so how will they gain new customers interest? Sucks that all the brands are moving into this direction, Rolex closing ad weekly from what I been seeing on the forums reporting.

[bwakus23]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

So if I were to walk into an AP boutique what pieces am I likely to be able to purchase other than a code? Are offshores easy to get?

I strolled into my boutique a few weeks back, and there was a ROO Titanium 42mm in the case. Not what I’m after, so I didn’t buy but did start up a convo with an SA and have since been offered a few other ROO models. All of that in just a few weeks.

So I’d say ROOs are harder than a Code obviously but not that difficult. As for a steel RO, that’s a different story.

I can’t comment on higher end pieces as they’re not really in my budget, but the times I’ve been in I haven’t seen any.


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[Batmannr1]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

So if I were to walk into an AP boutique what pieces am I likely to be able to purchase other than a code? Are offshores easy to get?

My local AD (not a boutique) has for more then a year 3 SS ROO’s for sale. Not the limited or boutique only pieces, but the regular ROO’s are not difficult to buy.
For SS RO’s it is a different story. Really agonizing process to obtain one if you are not a high roller at the store

[DJH1977]

The boutique here has ROO routinely. Not often more than one. It really helps if local and able to drop in on occasion and get to know them. Unfortunately it’s luck if you live near one or not.