How many Subs and GMTs does the average AD get per year?

[Nepats81]

Many here think prices are really going to crash on sports models in the coming year or so. I personally have no clue whats going to happen. But it got me thinking, how many of these in demand sports watches (Subs, Pepsis, Batmans etc) does the average AD get per year.

Lets say XYZ Authorized Dealer gets 100 of these watches in a year. Isn't the waitlist on each model close to 300 deep? Even if demand lets up a little bit, seems like it could take many years before we see these models available for MSRP and in cases.

I would be interested to hear your guys insights.

[CHRONOLEX]

Interested in this also. It seems these don’t go out the door immediately on arrival and instead get held back to bundle or induce a jewelry buyer off the fence.

[AFinchMustang]

As with all things in life, it depends. There may be 300 people on waitlists between all of those models at an AD, but most people on those lists are probably after one or two of those models (and the AD would probably limit them at one or two popular sports models within a reasonable timeframe). Your position on the "list" could also change if you have a good relationship already, start buying other jewelry or just make friends with a SA.

You also already brought up the point of the current and potential change in the market. If we hit a major recession or secondary prices close in on the retail + tax, that list would probably be a fraction of what it is today or was even a few months ago. People are going to get the call that either cant afford it anymore or can no longer flip it for enough to make it worth potentially burning an AD relationship.

[HideMyWalletPlease]

More than they will admit

[Tools]

Originally Posted by Nepats81

Many here think prices are really going to crash on sports models in the coming year or so. I personally have no clue whats going to happen. But it got me thinking, how many of these in demand sports watches (Subs, Pepsis, Batmans etc) does the average AD get per year.

. . .

Prices aren't going to crash any time soon. Rolex continues to sell every make and model they make each year.

What will likely go down is the unsustainable secondary asking prices, which nobody should have been paying in the first place.

Nobody knows how many watches of any model an AD gets annually, but it likely varies considerably with the AD's history.

[Jack T]

Except for those who say ‘no one really knows’ every response to your observations and inquiries is pure speculation.

[Tim Plains]

Toronto AD.

A manager told me between 25 - 30 GMT IIs annually.

SA, at a later date, told me about 25 GMT IIs annually and Subs quite frequently.

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

Toronto AD.

A manager told me between 25 - 30 GMT IIs annually.

SA, at a later date, told me about 25 GMT IIs annually and Subs quite frequently.

Seems crazy high

[Turbo Racer]

Apparently not enough to fuel my addiction lol. I’m not greedy, just one of each….color way

[Dabbadon8]

Originally Posted by CHRONOLEX

Seems crazy high

Sounds about right from what I’ve heard. They have enough people who want them.

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by Dabbadon8

Sounds about right from what I’ve heard. They have enough people who want them.

I meant seems like a lot relative to this narrative you have to wait multiple years for a Sub.

[Tim Plains]

Originally Posted by CHRONOLEX

Seems crazy high

30 seems high, less than 3/month on average?

I don't buy the scarcity at all for any stainless or two-tone model. Demand is obviously very high but empty shelves don't pay the rent. Every AD/boutique in the world has expensive monthly lease payments. They're clearly selling enough to keep the lights on and they can't all be OPs or Air Kings.

[CHRONOLEX]

Seems they must be selling a lot yet maintain this mystery. I stopped by an AD on holiday recently and the SA offered they don’t have (and never have) anything. He said he has 200 people on waiting list for a Sub and wait for “anything in platinum” is 10 years. Um ok

[Dabbadon8]

Originally Posted by CHRONOLEX

Seems they must be selling a lot yet maintain this mystery. I stopped by an AD on holiday recently and the SA offered they don’t have (and never have) anything. He said he has 200 people on waiting list for a Sub and wait for “anything in platinum” is 10 years. Um ok

Everyone and their brother want a sub. This includes existing customers ADs need to please. I think demand for the ss sub is above the gmt. Rolex actually seems to match production to demand to some extent. I think they get more ss Daytona than skydwellers. It’s just demand on the extremely popular models outstrips the supply.

[WilsdorfNDavis]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

30 seems high, less than 3/month on average?

I don't buy the scarcity at all for any stainless or two-tone model. Demand is obviously very high but empty shelves don't pay the rent. Every AD/boutique in the world has expensive monthly lease payments. They're clearly selling enough to keep the lights on and they can't all be OPs or Air Kings.

Why do people keep equating empty shelves to no sales???

They sell the watches so fast they don't make it to the shelves, therefore the shelves are always empty.

[Dabbadon8]

Originally Posted by WilsdorfNDavis

Why do people keep equating empty shelves to no sales???

They sell the watches so fast they don't make it to the shelves, therefore the shelves are always empty.

This. Shelves are empty because everything is lined up to go to someone. Stuff only gets to the case if no one has expressed interest.

[rushca01]

Originally Posted by Tools

Prices aren't going to crash any time soon. Rolex continues to sell every make and model they make each year.

What will likely go down is the unsustainable secondary asking prices, which nobody should have been paying in the first place.

Nobody knows how many watches of any model an AD gets annually, but it likely varies considerably with the AD's history.

Of course Rolex sells every make and model they make each year, their dealer network has to buy them. It’s up to the dealer/AD to then sell what Rolex sold them, in the past those watches could have sat at an AD for months/years before they were sold but to Rolex they are already made their sell. Great business model really.

[Dannyv]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

Toronto AD.

A manager told me between 25 - 30 GMT IIs annually.

SA, at a later date, told me about 25 GMT IIs annually and Subs quite frequently.

I'd be interested to know how similar these numbers are for Australian ADs.

Our cases have been empty for the most part since 2017 (earliest I can remember) so, i'd imagine they'd be much lower numbers. Keen to know if anyone does!

[CHRONOLEX]

I find their tactics confusing. If the message is we have no watches and don’t get any and the list is so long you will never get one, (1) that’s probably not true, (2) someone is getting them, (3) doubtful all those people getting them are also buying lots of jewelry, and (4) how does AD expect anyone to want to engage and start buying jewelry if they get shut down on arrival. It seems like message should instead be yes we for sure get stock all the time and let’s talk about how we can make you a customer, not the other method.

[Njkdog]

1) it depends on which AD
2) wait lists are Way more than 300 deep (for some models)

But overall, yes, you’re right and have good point

[Cigars&Watches]

Grey prices are coming down but that is not affecting the demand for MSRP at a AD. if prices come down far enough on the grey market it would probably affect demand at the AD since some buyers would be willing to pay a small premium on the grey… However we are a far way from this happening..

As far as availability of a sub, Blnr or blro from AD, this is not going to happen. ADs will leverage these hot models to previous customers with purchasing history or new clients willing to buy slower moving models, jewellery,etc (no different than now) and greys when bundling

As far as how many subs and GMTS ADs get a year this will vary by size, area and selling volume of the AD. Ask your AD, they might actually tell you

Rolex HQ does not release how many of each reference they make a year but manufacturer roughly 800000k- 1 mil watches total every year

[CHRONOLEX]

This is a serious question. How can there be 300 people on the list for a new Sub waiting multiple years when you could pay a small premium and have it gray immediately? Not advocating one way or the other. But out of 300 people surely most or many “could afford” the slight gray premium (or if they can’t maybe they shouldn’t be buying a Rolex in the first place but to each their own). So why would anyone wait like that? I do my fair amount of business with AD but if wait is going to be months and months the wait just doesn’t make sense.

I also find it strange that AD “offers” SS pieces to their supposed high rollers who buy a lot of jewelry from them. Why would that guy be impressed at all with a Sub at retail? Presumably already has one and many other things, or doesn’t even want one.

Thanks for opinions.

[Njkdog]

Originally Posted by CHRONOLEX

This is a serious question. How can there be 300 people on the list for a new Sub waiting multiple years when you could pay a small premium and have it gray immediately? Not advocating one way or the other. But out of 300 people surely most or many “could afford” the slight gray premium (or if they can’t maybe they shouldn’t be buying a Rolex in the first place but to each their own). So why would anyone wait like that? I do my fair amount of business with AD but if wait is going to be months and months the wait just doesn’t make sense.

I also find it strange that AD “offers” SS pieces to their supposed high rollers who buy a lot of jewelry from them. Why would that guy be impressed at all with a Sub at retail? Presumably already has one and many other things, or doesn’t even want one.

Thanks for opinions.

A lot of reasons.
1) Some are just in it to flip or make money.
2) it’s not at all a small premium, it’s about 50% mark up.
3) some aren’t trusting of secondary market
4) some few guilty playing the gray game.
5) just because you can afford something doesn’t mean you can justify it. like me with sunglasses (opposite of Rolex situation) I only buy online because I know what I want and it’s about 50% off the price. I could afford to buy them in person but I can’t justify wasting even that small amount of money (I feel guilty enough because I know I’ll break them in a month anyway)

[rolex16]

What I don’t get is that on Reddit there are walkins getting watches all over the place. If their stories are true, what is the magic formula? Why do some walk in and get a sub with no history and others wait years, even with spend history?

[edisonstar23]

Nobody can’t accurately tell you this info. Too many factors determine their allocations


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[goldboy]

Originally Posted by rolex16

What I don’t get is that on Reddit there are walkins getting watches all over the place. If their stories are true, what is the magic formula? Why do some walk in and get a sub with no history and others wait years, even with spend history?

It’s extremely rare to get offered anything on walk in in the current market (which appears to be correcting though). There needs to be something in it for the sales rep to provide the offer to a walk in, maybe they can sense a wealthy customer, or maybe they sense a dedicated collector.

Either way they probably feel this walk in could be a valuable long term client and they want to hook them.

Also Reddit is littered with garbage and I wouldn’t believe a single thing on there.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by goldboy

It’s extremely rare to get offered anything on walk in in the current market (which appears to be correcting though). There needs to be something in it for the sales rep to provide the offer to a walk in, maybe they can sense a wealthy customer, or maybe they sense a dedicated collector.

I asked for a platinum dd40 and was told 1-2 years! Maybe I should have rolled up in a Bentley with my butler, lol!

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by goldboy

It’s extremely rare to get offered anything on walk in in the current market (which appears to be correcting though). There needs to be something in it for the sales rep to provide the offer to a walk in, maybe they can sense a wealthy customer, or maybe they sense a dedicated collector.

Either way they probably feel this walk in could be a valuable long term client and they want to hook them.

Also Reddit is littered with garbage and I wouldn’t believe a single thing on there.

It seems like this may only happen if the latest shipment arrived and they don’t have conviction around the next person on the list, so instead of allocating they just sit on the pieces for a few days or weeks and see who walks in, or if a more important client calls for the same watch. If no one asks, maybe they continue with the list.

[scombs263]

My AD claims one GMT Master II every 6-8 weeks…….

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Nepats81

Many here think prices are really going to crash on sports models in the coming year or so. I personally have no clue whats going to happen. But it got me thinking, how many of these in demand sports watches (Subs, Pepsis, Batmans etc) does the average AD get per year.

Lets say XYZ Authorized Dealer gets 100 of these watches in a year. Isn't the waitlist on each model close to 300 deep? Even if demand lets up a little bit, seems like it could take many years before we see these models available for MSRP and in cases.

I would be interested to hear your guys insights.

Depends. The smaller mom and pop type places not that many. My AD which is owned by WoS and a huge volume store received 20 126610’s in a single shipment last December.