AD's finally being more responsive?? Signs of better times ahead?

[HelloMelo]

The past few weeks I've had my AD be more responsive than the last year combined. She even offered me my newest watch that I requested less than a month ago.

Are we finally seeing some supply catch up to the demand? I was even offered a DJ41 configuration that I didn't like so I turned it down. It was on an Oyster band. I'm guessing the non-desirable watches pre-covid are finally being turned down by people looking to flip.

Anyone see the same from their AD? Feels at least a bit encouraging going in to the holiday season. I'm still waiting for my BLNR but I'm confident that I should be able to receive it by the end of the year.

Also a bit of context, I don't have a big purchase history or anything like that. The AD just really connected with my wife.

[1William]

Good to hear. It will be interesting to see how this develops.

[iaymnu]

ADs in the US still have that ridiculous “Exhibition Only” bullshit. (especially London Jewelers)Here overseas (Hong Kong) you can buy if you find them in displays.

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by iaymnu

ADs in the US still have that ridiculous “Exhibition Only” bullshit. (especially London Jewelers)Here overseas (Hong Kong) you can buy if you find them in displays.

Interesting. They let you buy exhibition models in Hong Kong??

[EatYourSushi]

My AD told me cooling down in grey market hasn't reflected in their store and demand is still very high. I already waited 3 months for explorer 1 which my AD said it should be relatively easy to get...

[alphadweller]

Sounds like good news. However, I don't see any improvement in my neck of the woods. We'll see.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by EatYourSushi

My AD told me cooling down in grey market hasn't reflected in their store and demand is still very high. I already waited 3 months for explorer 1 which my AD said it should be relatively easy to get...

There will be pent-up demand from genuine watch buyers. Once they work their way through them then everything should improve.

[CHRONOLEX]

Maybe you just came across someone in a good mood. I have noticed no change. Still very polite will let me know if anything I want comes in but no calls.

[malba2366]

Originally Posted by iaymnu

ADs in the US still have that ridiculous “Exhibition Only” bullshit. (especially London Jewelers)Here overseas (Hong Kong) you can buy if you find them in displays.

I don't think that is up to the AD, those watches are supplied to the AD by Rolex USA specifically as exhibition pieces and can't be sold until Rolex tells them they can. I think Rolex saw a softening in demand towards the tail end of last year, and decided to do this so customers have something to look and try on as the days of people making $10-50K purchases sight unseen are coming to an end. The community on here probably doesn't see value in this; but seeing a watch and trying it on makes a difference in closing a sale with the (much larger) market of window shoppers or non watch enthusiasts.

[amh]

No difference yet. Demand still just as high as always, as evidenced by the "thing we are not allowed to discuss"

I have a chart that tracks BLNR over the last 4 weeks - demand has only dropped perhaps 10% from the peak and thus is still much more than supply.

[prnceofpersia23]

As long as most watches are trading above MSRP, the situation at the AD's will not change.

[malba2366]

Originally Posted by prnceofpersia23

As long as most watches are trading above MSRP, the situation at the AD's will not change.

Yes it will because we are at the point now where it doesn't make financial sense for individuals to buy many watches (including submariners) for the purpose of resale. The individual will typically get 25-30% less than the going grey price for a watch they flip and they take the risk of holding an asset that is falling in value if they can't unload it quickly. For most references, after accounting for sales taxes, flipping is now a losing game.

[DJ2020]

The more watches are available at AD's, The less of a demand for impatient customers to buy from greys. The secondary price will drop. Everyone who wants one will get it from a AD.

If this levels the price out it will certainly cut down on flippers.
You will know when it's over when AD'S start treating customers...... well, like customers again.

[prnceofpersia23]

Originally Posted by malba2366

Yes it will because we are at the point now where it doesn't make financial sense for individuals to buy many watches (including submariners) for the purpose of resale. The individual will typically get 25-30% less than the going grey price for a watch they flip and they take the risk of holding an asset that is falling in value if they can't unload it quickly. For most references, after accounting for sales taxes, flipping is now a losing game.

Yes, you're correct. At the moment, someone immediately flipping a watch in a lot of cases will get less from a dealer than what they paid MSRP+tax. That will free up some spots on the waitlists for those who actually want the watch.

My point is, market prices above retail means there is still strong enough demand to warrant scarce supply from your local AD. The inability to immediately purchase popular models from an AD started years ago at even lower market prices.

[Beto737]

My AD hasn’t called yet..

[Seddyspaghetti]

“It’s happening”

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by Beto737

My AD hasn’t called yet..

Which reference are you waiting on? I know DJ's have been coming in.

[C0d]

I spoke to ADs in Vancouver, BC and was told that the Chinese money is still coming in by the boats.

Demand is therefore still very high and they are still hopeful that they will be able to serve "average people". That's exactly the word she used.

[DBCooper07]

I've waited this long. Whats another year when the recession really kicks in. I'll walk in like that scene from pretty woman.

https://youtu.be/VxcU4q6KLyA?t=134

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by C0d

I spoke to ADs in Vancouver, BC and was told that the Chinese money is still coming in by the boats.

Demand is therefore still very high and they are still hopeful that they will be able to serve "average people". That's exactly the word she used.

Canada must be a much different market than here in the East Coast. My AD would never say something like that nor say "average people".

[Beto737]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Which reference are you waiting on? I know DJ's have been coming in.

I’m looking for the “a bit harder to get” stuff I guess. I’ve been fairly lucky over the years. But, that green Sub appears to be very elusive for me!

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by Beto737

I’m looking for the “a bit harder to get” stuff I guess. I’ve been fairly lucky over the years. But, that green Sub appears to be very elusive for me!

Good luck! My cousin was fortunate to be offered one with no purchase history a few months ago. Definitely "a bit harder" than DJ's or AKs.

I still take it as a good sign that at least DJ and AKs are slowly tricking down.

[SBR]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Which reference are you waiting on? I know DJ's have been coming in.

If the DJ 41 you passed on has a blue dial and smooth bezel I would love to buy it for my nephew. Please PM me if it's available.

[amh]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Which reference are you waiting on? I know DJ's have been coming in.

Already have 4 DJ purchased during the drought. Need more SS.

[pursang_]

Originally Posted by amh

No difference yet. Demand still just as high as always, as evidenced by the "thing we are not allowed to discuss"

I have a chart that tracks BLNR over the last 4 weeks - demand has only dropped perhaps 10% from the peak and thus is still much more than supply.

Care to share how you're quantifying demand? I'm intrigued.

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by amh

Already have 4 DJ purchased during the drought. Need more SS.

I agree but up to a few months ago, even DJ's weren't available. So I'm happy that people are at least getting allocated DJ's

[Rado63]

Rolex already makes too many watches and if they want long term hype then they will preserve the value of your purchase by keeping supply in check, not trying to meet demand. Any calls from AD's are just the AD trying to add you as a client the watch will sell to someone else if you don't buy it.

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by Rado63

Rolex already makes too many watches and if they want long term hype then they will preserve the value of your purchase by keeping supply in check, not trying to meet demand. Any calls from AD's are just the AD trying to add you as a client the watch will sell to someone else if you don't buy it.

Rolex made a million watches last year. Is there any evidence that Rolex would keep supply in check or is that just a myth? Have they done this before?

[amh]

Originally Posted by pursang_

Care to share how you're quantifying demand? I'm intrigued.

Let "the thing we must not talk about" = P
Pn = P during normal times

At peak crazy P/Pn = 2.5
Today P/Pn = 2.3

So demand has come down about 10%... but until we reach P/Pn = 1.0 demand is still sky high.

[Michigan_State]

like the thought process, but elasticity isn’t always a linear function