The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Forum > Rolex & Tudor Watch Topics > Rolex General Discussion

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 17 June 2022, 11:35 AM   #1
cfidentification
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: FL Gulf Coast
Watch: 16613
Posts: 20
Can Someone Give Me A Reason Why Gray Market Rolex Prices Won't Decline?

I know we have an international audience here, and this is an international question. None the less, there are international uncertainties and other factors out there. The US makes up a large portion of the Rolex marketplace, I don't know the percentages, but it is probably higher than Vietnam per capita.

I actually heard some people finally admit to "Bear" market in that specific term.

All markets were in the red today, again. NYSE closer to 14k than 15k.

Cryptos you say? Bitcoin in a downward slope (or dive depending on your positioning). Ethereum is following suit and actually down higher by percentage. Okay, to be honest, some have seen increases, if you consider the area of .010% much of a gain, but it's better than a loss, right?

Federal Fund rate up an additional 75 basis points if you didn't hear, more upward "corrections" to come. Prime now stands at 4.75%.

Inflation "officially" at 8.6%, but we all know it's higher.

Gas over $5.00 a gallon in many places, and going to go up. $6.428 in California, according to AAA. But you folks in Cali know that already.

American discretionary spending is down. True, there will always be Rolex buyers and there is a market immune to the above factors overall. BUT.....

The cheap money which has fueled speculations and allowed buyers working in connection with gray marketeers or independent "flippers" is leaving the building. You can't float inventory forever, many are likely overextended, and meet your call. I run a business, not a museum, so I have to keep inventory moving, even if that means discounting or rebating to my customers.

I made a reasonable offer to a certain seller here, this watch has been in your inventory for a while, (way too long if you ask me if we are talking about being an active seller) and you still won't come to the table. I won't pay you the unrealistic price you ask, but we both know the offer was reasonable. You know all the eyes you were trying to catch have already seen the piece and you still have it. My next offer will be lower.
cfidentification is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 11:47 AM   #2
Al1969
2024 Pledge Member
 
Al1969's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 6,640
Quote:
Originally Posted by cfidentification View Post
I know we have an international audience here, and this is an international question. None the less, there are international uncertainties and other factors out there. The US makes up a large portion of the Rolex marketplace, I don't know the percentages, but it is probably higher than Vietnam per capita.

I actually heard some people finally admit to "Bear" market in that specific term.

All markets were in the red today, again. NYSE closer to 14k than 15k.

Cryptos you say? Bitcoin in a downward slope (or dive depending on your positioning). Ethereum is following suit and actually down higher by percentage. Okay, to be honest, some have seen increases, if you consider the area of .010% much of a gain, but it's better than a loss, right?

Federal Fund rate up an additional 75 basis points if you didn't hear, more upward "corrections" to come. Prime now stands at 4.75%.

Inflation "officially" at 8.6%, but we all know it's higher.

Gas over $5.00 a gallon in many places, and going to go up. $6.428 in California, according to AAA. But you folks in Cali know that already.

American discretionary spending is down. True, there will always be Rolex buyers and there is a market immune to the above factors overall. BUT.....

The cheap money which has fueled speculations and allowed buyers working in connection with gray marketeers or independent "flippers" is leaving the building. You can't float inventory forever, many are likely overextended, and meet your call. I run a business, not a museum, so I have to keep inventory moving, even if that means discounting or rebating to my customers.

I made a reasonable offer to a seller, this watch has been in your inventory for a while, and you still won't come to the table. I won't pay you the unrealistic price you ask, but we both know the offer was reasonable. You know all the eyes you were trying to catch have already seen the piece and you still have it. My next offer will be lower.

You need to be patient. It’ll take some time but prices will come down. It’s a matter of who will ‘blink’ first. No gray dealer wants to be the first dominoe to fall.
__________________
WG SUB-116719
GMT MASTER II 126719
Al1969 is online now  
Old 17 June 2022, 11:55 AM   #3
pepemaui
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
 
pepemaui's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Real Name: Jingleheimer
Location: USA
Posts: 665
Not all bought at retail MSRP....

Pride = Wont sell for even or small loss.....= Bigger losses later.....

__________________
pepemaui is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 11:56 AM   #4
Warningshot
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: USA
Posts: 117
They are also likely buying inventory at significantly lower prices in order to average their cost of goods as the prices come down.
Warningshot is online now  
Old 17 June 2022, 11:57 AM   #5
douglasf13
"TRF" Member
 
douglasf13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 5,622
Who knows what will happen, but I guess the only reason I can think of is that, if inflation remains high, holding cash is too expensive, so people will still look to dump money into assets.
douglasf13 is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 12:04 PM   #6
Tim Plains
"TRF" Member
 
Tim Plains's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: EST
Watch: 126610LN
Posts: 1,175
I don't see how anyone can try to accurately predict global Rolex market values while China is still locked down and Russia is heavily sanctioned.
Tim Plains is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 12:07 PM   #7
cfidentification
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: FL Gulf Coast
Watch: 16613
Posts: 20
Good points- assuming you suddenly are not desperate for the same cash to cover your expenses. But I am glad we have a dialogue. Look at all the people publishing their acquisitions after "getting the call". These watches are currently in production. I stay away from the vintage stuff, we know that is a different conversation.
cfidentification is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 12:07 PM   #8
Jay2101
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2022
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Posts: 172
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Plains View Post
I don't see who anyone can try to accurately predict global Rolex market values while China is still locked down and Russia is heavily sanctioned.
I think demand is still pretty high in China. Friend of mine in Beijing regularly visits ADs and says pickings are slim.

They're leaving a lot on the grey market though. PreCOVID, droves of Chinese tourists would come to Japan to buy Rolexes. They would buy multiple at a time. It was like 40% of the business for a lot of grey dealers here in Tokyo.
Jay2101 is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 12:10 PM   #9
Nepats81
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Boston/Miami
Posts: 313
truth is no one knows what will happen, because we are in dangerous territory, and have pursued a radical monetary policy.

Every other recession in human history, the president and government at least wanted to pull us out of it. This time its different. The Biden administration is purposely trying to destroy the economy.

Why? Because to install Communism you first have to tear down the existing structures. No one knows if they will be successful.

Perhaps all will be fixed when Desantis comes into office in 2024. We will see.
Nepats81 is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 12:11 PM   #10
Roll-E
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2021
Location: California
Posts: 88
Another reason is it’s smart business. If u drop your prices significantly overnight, it will only hasten a further decline in price. But dropping the prices slowly, they get a softer landing to where the market ultimately dictates.
Roll-E is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 12:14 PM   #11
goldboy
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: canada
Watch: Daytona 116500
Posts: 471
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepats81 View Post
Why? Because to install Communism you first have to tear down the existing structures. No one knows if they will be successful..
That escalated quickly
goldboy is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 12:21 PM   #12
cfidentification
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: FL Gulf Coast
Watch: 16613
Posts: 20
Oh I did forget to mention one thing- I have run a spread sheet for years tracking gray market and resales. My number shows the index 124060, an easy example, asking price has fallen below asking prices in November 2021 and are roughly equal to estimated prices realized in October, 2021 on the secondary market.
cfidentification is offline  
Old 17 June 2022, 12:22 PM   #13
indianmachine
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 796
they will come down. Vintage dealers that also stock modern, like tropicalwatch and hqmilton, have brought their modern pieces down and the latter even has a sale section. Parity must be maintained.
indianmachine is offline  
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

My Watch LLC

WatchesOff5th

DavidSW Watches

Takuya Watches

OCWatches

Asset Appeal

Wrist Aficionado


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.