Will the Rolex future vintage market be dead?

[JSolution]

With so many new Rolexes being put away and not worn nowadays, or kept in immaculate condition - 20-30 years from now I think there are going to be so many perfect examples out there of most references, especially all of the steel sports models.

Compared to say now, if you were looking for a perfect 16710 for just one example you have to look real hard to find a good one in good condition.

Im not personally a vintage guy, but I took a long time finding the right 16618 when I bought it some time ago, I probably viewed 4/5 untill I found one which I thought was in an appropriate condition and price.

Maybe less produced models , platinum Daytona, gmt meteorite for example will be a bit more difficult to find.

Your thoughts?

[Bxtek]

I honestly don't feel that the vintage Rolex market will be dead, but that it will just elevate and values will keep increasing. Obviously they're not making anymore of them, so they will only become rarer and rarer.

I do feel however, that the group of collectors or people who want these pieces will get smaller. At some point, some of the uber rare pieces would only be available if you're in those certain "circles"?

I'm also a car guy and that is what's happening to vintage cars. Take a Lamborghini Countach, a 356 Speedster, or a Ferrari Dino. Ordinary people with regular income could afford those before. You used to see a number of them at the local meets and cars and coffees and they were drivers. Now, they are a rare sight and most are parked in garages and don't leave the "safe" very often. However, if you're looking to sell, there is a huge demand from the people that can afford to play at that level. I see the same thing with vintage Rolex watches and other rare watches.

[Pete_mcC]

Modern Rolex are now made in their millions every year, they will never have the rarity of 4 or 5 digit vintage Rolex

They will have a value, as long as the hype train continues but it’s going to be so much easier to find a mint, box & papers Hulk, Kermit or whatever in 30 years time than it currently is to find a similar condition 4 or 5 digit watch.

To add to the huge disparity in production numbers, in the 1950/60/70s Rolex were tool watches are were treated as such so good condition ones are now rare. Today watches are investments, hence all the threads about micro-scratch prevention or ‘bubble bursting’ so good condition will be the norm meaning vintage fans will have a ton of cookie cutter watches to choose from.

[douglasf13]

I think the future is hard to predict, whether it be cars or watches, because of the onset of technology. Will my vintage sports car and Rolex be valuable in another 50 years? Maybe, or they could be thought of like the wagon and pocket watch today.

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

I think the future is hard to predict, whether it be cars or watches, because of the onset of technology. Will my vintage sports car and Rolex be valuable in another 50 years? Maybe, or they could be thought of like the wagon and pocket watch today.

The point I was making is - there is going to be loads and loads of brand new examples probably for the rest of time now - unlike the vintage market today.

[Greglaw]

How do you know they are put away and not worn?

How can you possibly know what anyone does with anything?

From the internet? Cmon.

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by Greglaw

How do you know they are put away and not worn?

How can you possibly know what anyone does with anything?

From the internet? Cmon.

I would lay my life savings there’ll be more brand new pristine unworn 20 year old Rolex watches than there are on the market today.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by JSolution

The point I was making is - there is going to be loads and loads of brand new examples probably for the rest of time now - unlike the vintage market today.

Yeah, I know, and I think you may be right. I was just adding that I'm not even convinced watches will be worth all that much at all in 50 years. Hopefully they will.

[DJ2020]

Originally Posted by JSolution

I would lay my life savings there’ll be more brand new pristine unworn 20 year old Rolex watches than there are on the market today.

That's pretty much on the money IMO.

[douglasf13]

I guess the question is, even though there will be far more unworn Rolex watches in 30 years, how many currently developing nations will have more citizens in the position to buy a Rolex in 30 years? The demand could still go up quite a bit (if, as I mentioned earlier, people still even want mechanicals at that time.)

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Yeah, I know, and I think you may be right. I was just adding that I'm not even convinced watches will be worth all that much at all in 50 years. Hopefully they will.

I think from a jewellery perspective, rather than a horology perspective - they will. “Fashion” will never go away and don’t see anything replacing the wristwatch as a classy goto fashion accessory for a male especially.

Originally Posted by douglasf13

I guess the question is, even though there will be far more unworn Rolex watches in 30 years, how many currently developing nations will have more citizens in the position to buy a Rolex in 30 years? The demand could still go up quite a bit (if, as I mentioned earlier, people still even want mechanicals at that time.)

This is far too complex for me to answer, pass please

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by JSolution

The point I was making is - there is going to be loads and loads of brand new examples probably for the rest of time now - unlike the vintage market today.

I think it’s a great question and point here. Often, things change and over the years things have a way of going out of fashion. I could easily see many of these examples losing popularity, get sold and used and lose their box and papers.

Also, I could see despite large production numbers, certain watches gaining following. Stanger things have happened

[Greglaw]

Originally Posted by DJ2020

That's pretty much on the money IMO.

Based on zero data that you can actually measure.

Name 100 people in the world who’ve done this? How about 30?

You can’t. This is how baseless information spreads.

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Yeah, I know, and I think you may be right. I was just adding that I'm not even convinced watches will be worth all that much at all in 50 years. Hopefully they will.

I believe a 50 year old sub in the future will be worth substantially less than a 50 year old sub is worth today. It’s difficult to find something that old with box and papers and in good shape. In 50 years everything will have box and papers and be in good shape. We went from tools, to jewelry.


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[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

I think the future is hard to predict, whether it be cars or watches, because of the onset of technology. Will my vintage sports car and Rolex be valuable in another 50 years? Maybe, or they could be thought of like the wagon and pocket watch today.

The pocket watch market is a good example of when something that is inherently rare and collectable stagnates and slowly dies.

You can find extremely complex and beautiful pocket watches for pennies on the dollar and very few buyers.

[Uhtred59]

Interesting topic OP, made me think of the 1883 5 cent liberty nickel. Initially the coin didn’t have its value marked, about 5.5M were produced. Some enterprising individuals gold washed the coins and passed them off as $5 coins. So the government quickly add cents to the coin. About 16M were produced. As for value, people saved the no cents coins in large numbers and in great condition, viewing it as a potential rarity. People just spent the w/cents examples. So if you wanted to buy an uncirculated example of a 1883 liberty nickel, the w/cents version costs many multiples more even though 3 times more were produced.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

The pocket watch market is a good example of when something that is inherently rare and collectable stagnates and slowly dies.

You can find extremely complex and beautiful pocket watches for pennies on the dollar and very few buyers.

Yeah, I have a 120 year old, gold pocket watch inherited from grandparents, and it isn’t worth much.

I also have a very fancy ebony and gold cane…not exactly today’s fashion, unless I want to get a top hat and dress like Mr. Peanut.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by JSolution

I think from a jewellery perspective, rather than a horology perspective - they will. “Fashion” will never go away and don’t see anything replacing the wristwatch as a classy goto fashion accessory for a male especially.

Sure, but as I mentioned above about pocket watches and canes, fashion changes.

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by JSolution

With so many new Rolexes being put away and not worn nowadays, or kept in immaculate condition - 20-30 years from now I think there are going to be so many perfect examples out there of most references, especially all of the steel sports models.

Compared to say now, if you were looking for a perfect 16710 for just one example you have to look real hard to find a good one in good condition.

Im not personally a vintage guy, but I took a long time finding the right 16618 when I bought it some time ago, I probably viewed 4/5 untill I found one which I thought was in an appropriate condition and price.

Maybe less produced models , platinum Daytona, gmt meteorite for example will be a bit more difficult to find.

Your thoughts?

I can see a firming up of the sentiment for well used watches that have a certain patina.
These modern watches won't suffer from degraded or discoloured lume so patina will rule.

Some of those highly pampered watches may even be taken out of the vault and subjected to some harsh treatment in order to extract the most value

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by JSolution

The point I was making is - there is going to be loads and loads of brand new examples probably for the rest of time now - unlike the vintage market today.

I don't know about loads and loads but there will walkways be a proportion. Relatively speaking of course

[Rori]

Originally Posted by Bxtek

I honestly don't feel that the vintage Rolex market will be dead, but that it will just elevate and values will keep increasing. Obviously they're not making anymore of them, so they will only become rarer and rarer.

I do feel however, that the group of collectors or people who want these pieces will get smaller. At some point, some of the uber rare pieces would only be available if you're in those certain "circles"?

I'm also a car guy and that is what's happening to vintage cars. Take a Lamborghini Countach, a 356 Speedster, or a Ferrari Dino. Ordinary people with regular income could afford those before. You used to see a number of them at the local meets and cars and coffees and they were drivers. Now, they are a rare sight and most are parked in garages and don't leave the "safe" very often. However, if you're looking to sell, there is a huge demand from the people that can afford to play at that level. I see the same thing with vintage Rolex watches and other rare watches.

I second the above.
Vintage Rolex watches that are unaltered are tripling in price each decade. Rare models are fetching insane amount of money. Those pieces won’t be dead at all, the only direction their price will take is UP.
Ceramic non organic Rolex will never become as valued as important, they are produced in bigger batches, they don’t age not develop any sort of patina that makes each watch a unique piece.


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[christian-h]

My predictions is that vintage market will keep growing short term, but decline in the long term. In my experience, many enthusiast leave the vintage segment as it's difficult, expensive and fragile watches we are talking about.

I got interested in watches around 10 years ago and at that point, vintage watches was a reasonable choice. You could buy, wear and repair at a fair cost; today, it's not just possible.

One might ask oneself what it will take to attract new blood to the vintage market. My guess is a decline in price, but then, in the end of the day, it's still really expensive to care for vintage watches today.

[Crown & Shield]

Scarcity makes the value of vintage watches. There are so many contemporary watches sitting brand new in safes around the world that this will definitely affect the prices of those watches down the road.

[Boopie]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

I believe a 50 year old sub in the future will be worth substantially less than a 50 year old sub is worth today. It’s difficult to find something that old with box and papers and in good shape. In 50 years everything will have box and papers and be in good shape. We went from tools, to jewelry.


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Technology is moving very quickly. Already I see the majority of people around wearing Apple watches.

If there’s no one around to service these watches, they may be so anachronistic and no one will want them at all.

Guys today typically don’t want the 34mm sizes that were considered large 50 years ago. There are guys here posting nearly every day that 36mm is too small. Will the trend be larger or smaller?

Watches are also a fashion item, and vintage isn’t for everyone. I just don’t see a huge wave of people wanting to wear 50 year old Rolex watches that were all the rage in 2020. They may be worn by a niche segment, but not mainstream.

I think the changes in technology and lifestyle make it completely impossible to predict.

[csaltphoto]

It's very difficult to say. Mechanical watches have endured through two pretty big schisms in the industry. Quartz and smart watches. I guess something like the Swatch Sistem51 is an interesting challenge as well (all 3D printed, automatic, 90 hour reserve). 3D printing will improve to the point where you can probably have about anything you like as an exact copy as well. Or mass customization might be a trend. And then reverse.

[dannyp]

Like with cars, I think it'll stay a "used" market longer today than perhaps 20-25 years ago.

In 1995, a car from 1970 was already "vintage" but today, a car from 1997 is just very, very used.

[vipereaper30]

Most people would buy one, maybe two Rolex watches back in the day. The modern collector is likely to have many more in their collection. So I don't see the future market being as hot for the amount Rolex is cranking out today.

Highly sought after always but not nearly as rare imo.

[JR16]

If “vintage” is defined by age, then there will always be a vintage Rolex market. Will it look the same as today? Prob not but nobody has a crystal ball.


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[dannyp]

Originally Posted by JR16

If “vintage” is defined by age, then there will always be a vintage Rolex market. Will it look the same as today? Prob not but nobody has a crystal ball.


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Also, today, there are far fewer unintentional “short” production runs (changing a dial just because of what paint was available) or special order runs (like militaries, company awards, etc). Also I think more people are properly maintaining them, vs having a local watchmaker repair with whatever generic parts are available. The percentage of “100% genuine” vintage watches will go up undoubtedly.

[rpstrimple]

I’m more interested in how modern references age. What they’ll look like in 50-60 years.