Looking to Buy a Daytona 116500...Timing?

[Tell44]

Ive been watching the prices in Pandas finally drop, and waiting to pounce.

Should I buy in the next two months before Watches and Wonders, or should I wait?

Im worried if they drop a larger case size, what that may do to the current models price. Up? Down? Sideways?

Or does everyone see a larger correction coming? There are even rumors of "Daytona $20,000" out there

Thoughts?

[Easy E]

No one can really answer that. Pure speculation only. In the world according to Easy E, I say hold off a bit. However, that totally depends on your timeline horizon. If you have a collection going, wait. If you are new and itching for that piece, go for it.

[brandrea]

I’d say buy when you’re comfortable parting with the cash and don’t look back.

[Tell44]

Originally Posted by Easy E

No one can really answer that. Pure speculation only. In the world according to Easy E, I say hold off a bit. However, that totally depends on your timeline horizon. If you have a collection going, wait. If you are new and itching for that piece, go for it.

Timeline is as long as it takes if necessary. Ive been waiting since 2016, so what's a few more months? Don't need to pay absolute bottom, more worried about a Watches and Wonders catalyst higher.

[Mr. K]

If you can get a 20k watch with box and papers, I'd go for it.

That's about 60 percent off it's peak craze.

[Mystro]

No one knows other than IF/when the Daytona gets an update, the current prices will seem like a bargain.

[Tell44]

Originally Posted by Mystro

No one knows other than IF/when the Daytona gets an update, the current prices will seem like a bargain.

So you think the update would drive current model prices higher, not lower?

[jb335]

If they change the Daytona and discontinue the 500, prices will go up. That’s as close to a certainty as death and taxes.

I doubt they discontinue the 500 this year though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Tell44

So you think the update would drive current model prices higher, not lower?

Significantly higher as this pattern has been shown in the past with the average popular models. A SS Daytona (the most sought after model in the world with the most respected modern Rolex movement inside) will go to the moon. This is the perfect storm and the easiest model to predict prices will go berserk. Then factor in its social media reputation and how much higher it will ascend putting it into mythical levels only driving the desirability even higher.

My advice is get your Panda now. I waited and it only cost me more money to get one.

[macrowatch]

6 month treasury pays out 4.8% right now, so every year you wait even if prices stay the same, it is 4.8% cheaper to you -- simplistically speaking.

If time is important but money is less so, just negotiate hard and get it now. If time is flexible and money is very important, then keep I'd wait longer.

I'd rather wait and get a OF WG at retail than pay gray prices at the current rate, and I think the OF WG will get easier and easier to get from where things stand right now.

[tifosi]

I'd suggest you buy a current Gen before/if it gets updated. Everyone will hate the new one and the prices for current Gen will skyrocket.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by tifosi

I'd suggest you buy a current Gen before/if it gets updated. Everyone will hate the new one and the prices for current Gen will skyrocket.

We Rolex aficionados are way too easy to predict change.

[tifosi]

Originally Posted by Mystro

We Rolex aficionados are way too easy to predict change.

Yep.

[m3tek44]

Buy now and enjoy. who knows what's future holds.

[Tell44]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Significantly higher as this pattern has been shown in the past with the average popular models. A SS Daytona (the most sought after model in the world with the most respected modern Rolex movement inside) will go to the moon. This is the perfect storm and the easiest model to predict prices will go berserk. Then factor in its social media reputation and how much higher it will ascend putting it into mythical levels only driving the desirability even higher.

My advice is get your Panda now. I waited and it only cost me more money to get one.

Thanks for that word of wisdom. I think im a buyer in the next 8 weeks.

I don't even want it from a hype perspective. I just want a freaking Daytona man.

[Tell44]

It seems like everyone is saying "just buy it". Fair.

I think im a buyer in the next 8 weeks.

I also have a 226570 I need to unload which will help with the purchase. I was lucky enough to get it from an AD in the Fall, but the damn thing is just too big for my wrist.

Doesn't help my daily I gravitate to right now is an Explorer 124270

[watchwatcher]

If you're worried about a new model deflating current model prices, take a look at the 116520's, or the 16520's, or the... you get the idea.

[TheWatchmen]

Good luck, I doubt you’ll regret anything if you pull the trigger.

IMO the white dial is definitely the one to have, I love mine.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Tell44

Thanks for that word of wisdom. I think im a buyer in the next 8 weeks.

I don't even want it from a hype perspective. I just want a freaking Daytona man.

What happened to me was when it was released it instantly shot up. With 25+ years of Rolex experience under my belt at that time, I knew the hype wouldn’t sustain and I would buy it when it came back slightly above msrp. That didn’t happen and year after year we all preached no way the SS Daytona could go above $20k, then $30k, then $40k, etc…. I celebrated a mile stone birthday and could afford not to wait any longer as it was never going to go back close to msrp. With the SS Daytona, the rule still stands “buy it now or pay more later”.

[worldofoyster]

buy now and dont look back

[Seddyspaghetti]

Seems like panda prices are slowly creeping up back into the low 30s.. you may have missed the bottom already when they were like $26-28k. Historically I dont see them going lower from now especially with w&w looming in march..

[Tell44]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Seems like panda prices are slowly creeping up back into the low 30s.. you may have missed the bottom already when they were like $26-28k. Historically I dont see them going lower from now especially with w&w looming in march..

Possible. Black dials seemingly haven't hit the floor yet. $25-26k listed.

[amphr1]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Seems like panda prices are slowly creeping up back into the low 30s.. you may have missed the bottom already when they were like $26-28k. Historically I dont see them going lower from now especially with w&w looming in march..

Could just be a local valley. It's hard to predict either way. I listen to Bloomberg regularly and get news feed about the economy. It just seems like on each day the market is down, you have people come out tell you the market will continue to go down all of 2023. On the day it goes up, you have folks come out and say how you should buy now because it's going to rally.

I think it's the same with the watch market. Especially with a Daytona. If you buy now, at say 30k for a white panda, you won't loose more than $5k in any scenario I can think of. But will you make a profit? I'm not sure. Since I assume you're buying to wear, it won't matter the day after you pay for it. You'll just be happy.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Seems like panda prices are slowly creeping up back into the low 30s.. you may have missed the bottom already when they were like $26-28k. Historically I dont see them going lower from now especially with w&w looming in march..

I am also seeing prices creep up, and pieces are moving quickly as well.

[1665fan]

All steel gmt and Daytonas back on the rise it looks like…..if someone got a black 500 for 25 I’d say they did pretty good…..whites over 30 again

[ArtNouveau]

If, and I think it’s a big if, a major change came to the Daytona in March I think the new one will break the internet. No matter how nice or how hideous it is many people will clamor for it because new Daytona.
Historically though the discontinued model will stabilize then start rising. 16520 and 116520 prices are much higher than they were when new or shortly after their production ended.

[Tensai]

The bottom is past.
Buy now and get the best quality/lowest price you can get.

[Tell44]

Originally Posted by amphora001

Could just be a local valley. It's hard to predict either way. I listen to Bloomberg regularly and get news feed about the economy. It just seems like on each day the market is down, you have people come out tell you the market will continue to go down all of 2023. On the day it goes up, you have folks come out and say how you should buy now because it's going to rally.

I think it's the same with the watch market. Especially with a Daytona. If you buy now, at say 30k for a white panda, you won't loose more than $5k in any scenario I can think of. But will you make a profit? I'm not sure. Since I assume you're buying to wear, it won't matter the day after you pay for it. You'll just be happy.

You are actually making the perfect argument for buying. I could care less if the watch flucuates 5k in any direction. But do I want to pay 25k? Sure.

[Emery]

Refer to Submariner for case study on what happens when you alter an iconic case size which has been used for so many years now.

Net effect on outgoing model - zilch.

[logo]

In 2016, the S&P500 was 200 and a Daytona, according to Chrono24 was about 18k. Today the S&P500 is about 400, and a Daytona is about $34k according to Chrono24. If you think the market will go up, and you are comfortable with todays price, buy now. If you think it will go down, or are uncomfortable with todays price, buy puts and convert it into a Daytona at the bottom.