So why are people really getting “the call” now?

[BillA]

Why is it different now? US economy seems to be skirting any type of recession, Unemployment numbers are low, consumers seem to be spending.

One Vlogger has this reason: Grays are not buying from AD’s anymore. AD buys from Rolex with a 40% discount. Rather than call someone on his list, the AD sells the watch to a gray above MSRP and the gray goes ahead and marks it up further. However, now the grays are not coming to the AD back door and buying anything, so now the AD is forced to call people from their lists.

I am not saying all AD’s do this, but some just may be doing this. So now we get “the call”…

I have not gotten the call.

[BraveBold]

Yeah, the economy “has been” chugging along fine. Give it a few more months to see the full brunt of rate hikes and depleted savings.

The percentage of Rolex buyers (and whole host of other luxury goods) that are stretching to grotesque levels is sizable. They are starting to run out of steam.

[996marty]

Interest rate rises and cost of living expenses in most places around the world would be my guess, but that will obviously be different from country to country.

[jb335]

Lol, you talk as if steel sport watches are back in the display case. I have an above average relationship with my AD and I have only been called once this year so far.

[JonaG]

“the AD is forced to call people from their lists.”
…Heaven forbid!

[alphadweller]

Maybe less people are putting money into watches as an investment. Thus a lower demand and relative higher availability, although we're still far from pre-2017.

[4reRlxGuy]

Not hearing of people getting calls in socal

[Andad]

There could still be a backlog of orders at AD's?

Give the availability situation a little more time and see where it goes?

[GradyPhilpott]

The great Rolex recession is here: How the Fed crushed the luxury watch boom

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...t-rates-2023-7

[djnick]

They deliver around a million watches a year it’s no surprise people are getting calls the last few years are an outlier

[Carguy87]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

Maybe less people are putting money into watches as an investment. Thus a lower demand and relative higher availability, although we're still far from pre-2017.

This is my first thought. With fewer people buying watches purely as investment tools with no regard for their quality as actual time pieces, it’s leaving more watches for those of us that truly enjoy them. All I can say is I just got the call for my BLNR over the weekend, a watch that I thought I might never see from an AD at retail, so whatever the cause is I’m ok with it.

[trout_thumper21]

Less upside on gray market means fewer flippers, means more watches available for enthusiasts. Add in the fact that debt has become more expensive, and people can earn a respectable and consistent return on cash in savings accounts.

[MrMikee]

I think it’s because COVID is over and done with. No more lockdowns, no more government checks. Over the COVID period many had more spare cash because they didn’t go on vacation, stayed at home, no nights out etc. All that spare cash is now gone.

I saw a report where the population with an annual salary of less than 50K increased their luxury goods spending by 360% over that COVID period. This group will now suffer the most with cost of living, inflation etc.

That’s my take on it all.

[Chewbacca]

I got a call to cease and desist asking them.

[Fleetlord]

For many reasons, watches are a little more available than they were, but let's not get carried away.

There are still many, many, many people with plenty and plenty of means and desire to satisfy the AD requirements to acquire Rolex, especially in big cities.

Rolex will continue to cut doors in their pursuit of further controlling distribution, so I wouldn't expect the utopia of full Rolex cases anytime soon.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have not gotten the call.

Ask the Vlogger why not. They seem to know everything.

[Podmornica]

Simple as this:

1.) 90% those on the waiting lists are flippers looking for a quick buck. Now that they cannot make a 100% profit on that BLNR like in 2020 and when greys are paying them close to retail in cash, most of them are having the cold feet as they were never interested in the watch in the first place other than make a flip. Not to bring the plain Submariner or a Datejust into argument. They would now be in a loss with those references.

AD Lists are clearing faster than ever as now only true enthusiasts and Rolex admirers are parting with their money to make a purchase.

2.) ROLEX FATIQUE. Most buyers were treated poorly and usually laughed upon asking for any professional reference while AD were selling them back door or to their preferred flippers.

3.) No one stays at the top forever. - Remember the pre 2017. You could get almost anything at 10-30% OFF MSRP. History repeats and people are gradually losing interest for certain items and are moving to different things.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

Ask the Vlogger why not. They seem to know everything.

Thanks for the suggestion, will do, great idea.

[Little machines]

Lets remember individuals that have 25,000 to 100,000 plus on a watch for the sake of owning a
hyped watch are thinking twice about leaving money in bank at 5 percent and waiting out the uncertainty in this economy .

[Krash]

Originally Posted by MrMikee

I think it’s because COVID is over and done with. No more lockdowns, no more government checks. Over the COVID period many had more spare cash because they didn’t go on vacation, stayed at home, no nights out etc. All that spare cash is now gone.

I saw a report where the population with an annual salary of less than 50K increased their luxury goods spending by 360% over that COVID period. This group will now suffer the most with cost of living, inflation etc.

That’s my take on it all.

I think it’s more about inflation than anything. But it seems like many Rolex models are still difficult to get as far as I can tell.


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[bmwsubmariner]

I think hype can only last for so long. However I still haven’t seen gray prices drop enough. 116500s at $25-30k, BLNR’s for $15-20k etc. Curious what 6 months from now will look like.

[Henrimontgomery]

A grey friend told me he’s not buying Rolex anymore, as they are not moving.

[msnow]

I’m not buying it. It’s still just as hard as ever where I live in SoCal to get Rolexes.


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[Midlifegoals]

Rolex will do its best to maintain forced scarcity in the brand. I think the “getting the call” culture will be a part of Rolex experience until/unless demand is surpassed by supply to the point that Rolex is hit in the pocket book.


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[Calatrava r]

Well, I am not getting the call. Rolex watches are and have always been selling. Rolex sells a million watches a year. By and large, however, the general public is still struggling to obtain professional steel Rolex models.

[Cigars&Watches]

I haven't seen any change here

[Chiboy]

Demand declined due to slowing economy.
Hype moved onto something else.
So prices came down.
Grays were largely caught with big inventory levels that were declining in price rather than continuing to move up.
So they aren't looking to buy much inventory.
And what they buy now doesn't sell so quickly so the spread they need to purchase watches has gone up, while selling prices have gone down.
So that drives gray purchase prices even lower.
So now most Rolex don't really have the easy money flip that they used to.
So people who were buying to flip, or even buying because they thought they wanted to own the watch are reassessing.
So many "on the list" now have other priorities when AD calls, and they pass.
Thus, more calls further down the list.

[amh]

Haven't had a "call" for a SS Sports Rolex in about 6 years. (PM or TT, yes)

The drought will be over when a random Joe Blow can walk into an AD and buy a Sub the same day.

[1William]

Let's speculate some more and go with more calls being made and watches delivered to persons on imaginary lists. Ok, that is what the AD's are in business for and the demand for Rolex watches at msrp is a long way from over. While we are speculating, wonder if this is the dip and we are getting ready to bounce back up as the economy strengthens over the next few years? Possible? Maybe.

[Inthesticks]

What is "a lot of people getting the call now" based on.. People who post on this Forum? Thats not an objective sampling.

Last time I checked there were still little to no models in display cases, and many AD's in the NY Metro area aren't even taking new names for their lists.