I don’t understand!

[Dvfilms]

Hello! I’m brand new to watch collecting and since I started looking into it a month ago I’ve learned a few things, but there’s also a few things that I don’t understand that don’t seem to add up. I’ll explain…

I was looking for a Daytona for my 50th this year. After 5 minutes of online research I learned it’s impossible to get at retail from an AD. So I called 18 dealers in the northeast US where I live who confirmed it. They told me it’s impossible, it’s the unicorn, there’s hundreds on the waitlist at every AD…etc. Ok fine. It is what it is.

Then I go on Chrono24 and see hundreds of them for sale, and not just used. There were over 400 that were new. That was interesting to me, and curious. Then I look at a local chain store on Long Island where I live and even they had 94 of them for sale. Many also new but of course at twice the price of retail.

My question is, how is it I’m told they’re impossible to find new if there’s so many for sale? And I only looked in a few places. God knows how many there actually are for sale worldwide. My guess is well into the thousands. And they’re sitting. I’m following about 15 of them just out of curiosity to see if they’re actually selling, but they’re not. They’re sitting. At twice the price.

Now I’m no expert but it seems to me that if there are so many and they’re all sitting that the market is actually a little saturated and they’re overpriced. By far. Which again is why they’re sitting. It almost seems as if the market is falsely inflated in an attempt to command exorbitant prices. It seem to me that the AD’s are dealing out the back door to create this false sense of value. How else could all these grey market guys have them brand new for sale. Did they wait out the 300 people/50 year wait list to get them? Of course not.

Again, I’m a novice and I’m sure I’m way off base with all this but to a novice it sure seems like this is what’s going on.

Can anyone who actually knows confirm any of this? I’d just like to understand what’s going on here.

Thanks everyone!

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Your post sounds more like a statement than a question.

Welcome to the forum.

[brandrea]

Welcome to the forum.

The watch world is pretty nutty these days and what you’ve observed is standard for several Rolex references and other brands too.

Unfortunately for the watch enthusiast it taints the buying experience to a degreee, unless you’re prepare to pay up and go to the secondary market.

Good luck on your Daytona quest

[S’portEye]

You understand completely.

[Sgooter]

For most of us, it comes down to how willing are you to bite the $$ bullet for the watch you want, and how long are you willing to wait for it. Exercise caution in the secondary market. Good article here:
https://www.gearpatrol.com/watches/a...a-rolex-watch/

[StylinProfilin]

Originally Posted by S’portEye

You understand completely.

This

[JRell]

I have a good relationship with my AD and hoping for a Daytona for a big upcoming birthday. The tone did change when it was for that reason. Not impossible.

[Calatrava r]

The used markets can be deceiving from their very visible online presence. I just checked Chrono24 for all Rolex of any age and type, and they have a total of 99K listings. The total annual output of Rolex is a million units per year. Online is 10 percent of just one year. In my view, the vast majority of new Rolex from ADs goes to end users who keep the watches three months or more.
On the highly sought after watches, where demand grossly exceeds supply, hence the high used prices, even the best-intentioned owners can fall prey to the allure of a quick profit.

From an ADs perspective, it makes the most sense to reserve the most sought-after models to their best long term VIP clients. This really makes it highly unlikely that a first buyer will ever secure a SS Daytona or Nautilus from a dealer without a huge concurrent purchase of some other high margin item.

[Hulkhunter]

The demand outstrips the supply. Therefore, the price on the secondary market is over retail. If you want to skip the line you have to pay for the privilege hence the over retail price tag.

A lot on of the adverts on chrono 24 are there fishing for customers, they don’t actually have the watch in hand so the numbers won’t be a true reflection.

It’s not actually impossible to get a Daytona from an AD, depending on the variant.
However, I assume you are referring to steel here, in which case don’t waste your time asking. As a first time customer it’s not going to happen. The fact it’s for a 50th won’t really help as everyone has a reason like that when asking.

If you have the budget, ask for a PM model and you may have half a chance.

[njlam]

Originally Posted by Dvfilms

Hello! I’m brand new to watch collecting and since I started looking into it a month ago I’ve learned a few things, but there’s also a few things that I don’t understand that don’t seem to add up. I’ll explain…

I was looking for a Daytona for my 50th this year. After 5 minutes of online research I learned it’s impossible to get at retail from an AD. So I called 18 dealers in the northeast US where I live who confirmed it. They told me it’s impossible, it’s the unicorn, there’s hundreds on the waitlist at every AD…etc. Ok fine. It is what it is.

Then I go on Chrono24 and see hundreds of them for sale, and not just used. There were over 400 that were new. That was interesting to me, and curious. Then I look at a local chain store on Long Island where I live and even they had 94 of them for sale. Many also new but of course at twice the price of retail.

My question is, how is it I’m told they’re impossible to find new if there’s so many for sale? And I only looked in a few places. God knows how many there actually are for sale worldwide. My guess is well into the thousands. And they’re sitting. I’m following about 15 of them just out of curiosity to see if they’re actually selling, but they’re not. They’re sitting. At twice the price.

Now I’m no expert but it seems to me that if there are so many and they’re all sitting that the market is actually a little saturated and they’re overpriced. By far. Which again is why they’re sitting. It almost seems as if the market is falsely inflated in an attempt to command exorbitant prices. It seem to me that the AD’s are dealing out the back door to create this false sense of value. How else could all these grey market guys have them brand new for sale. Did they wait out the 300 people/50 year wait list to get them? Of course not.

Again, I’m a novice and I’m sure I’m way off base with all this but to a novice it sure seems like this is what’s going on.

Can anyone who actually knows confirm any of this? I’d just like to understand what’s going on here.

Thanks everyone!

You understand completely. It is a corrupt system, but you can have the watch you want when you want it. Or not.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jackie Daytona]

Sounds like you caught up in it all pretty quickly. Went from novice to seasoned pretty quickly.

[Mystro]

The Rolex market isnt like anything else you can compare. Watches are selling at market prices at trusted sellers. Your local AD is selling every model they can get and because of this, they use them as rewards to move their every day jewelry for their better customers. In the end, forget about msrp as its meaningless for a efficient Rolex sale. Money talks so either get on a list and buy a bunch of junk jewelry in hopes the AD might select you for a entry level Rolex piece or pay up for the street market price and buy the model you really want. either way you are not getting a Rolex for its listed msrp. The SS Daytona is THE holy grail of Rolex so a newbie has zero chance of getting one at your AD unless you are dropping $ix figures of jewelry sales for a few years in a row and then you "might" get selected.

[ArtNouveau]

One store had 94 for sale? Where, I gotta see that!
So you’re new, maybe you should learn a little more before jumping to conclusions. The stainless steel Daytona has been in high demand since the late 80’s and authorized dealers generally offer them to their valued customers as a perk for their past patronage. There is almost zero chance you will be offered one as a first purchase.
That a few of those, and it really is just a tiny fraction of how many are produced, shows up for resale is inevitable. Even some “good customers” will take their reward to turn a fast buck.
OP, your choices are pay the inflated price to a reseller or better yet set your sights on a different model more attainable from an AD as a first purchase. The “back door” myth is popular with those who can’t seem to crack the dealer code to buy a watch. I’m pretty sure most of members of TRF are regular clients of ADs, it starts with talking in person to a SA at the dealer closest to you.

[~JJ]

Out of all the watches in the world, how did you land on wanting a Daytona?

[mjolnir2thor]

Originally Posted by Dvfilms

Hello! I’m brand new to watch collecting and since I started looking into it a month ago I’ve learned a few things, but there’s also a few things that I don’t understand that don’t seem to add up. I’ll explain…

I was looking for a Daytona for my 50th this year. After 5 minutes of online research I learned it’s impossible to get at retail from an AD. So I called 18 dealers in the northeast US where I live who confirmed it. They told me it’s impossible, it’s the unicorn, there’s hundreds on the waitlist at every AD…etc. Ok fine. It is what it is.

Then I go on Chrono24 and see hundreds of them for sale, and not just used. There were over 400 that were new. That was interesting to me, and curious. Then I look at a local chain store on Long Island where I live and even they had 94 of them for sale. Many also new but of course at twice the price of retail.

My question is, how is it I’m told they’re impossible to find new if there’s so many for sale? And I only looked in a few places. God knows how many there actually are for sale worldwide. My guess is well into the thousands. And they’re sitting. I’m following about 15 of them just out of curiosity to see if they’re actually selling, but they’re not. They’re sitting. At twice the price.

Now I’m no expert but it seems to me that if there are so many and they’re all sitting that the market is actually a little saturated and they’re overpriced. By far. Which again is why they’re sitting. It almost seems as if the market is falsely inflated in an attempt to command exorbitant prices. It seem to me that the AD’s are dealing out the back door to create this false sense of value. How else could all these grey market guys have them brand new for sale. Did they wait out the 300 people/50 year wait list to get them? Of course not.

Again, I’m a novice and I’m sure I’m way off base with all this but to a novice it sure seems like this is what’s going on.

Can anyone who actually knows confirm any of this? I’d just like to understand what’s going on here.

Thanks everyone!

Pretty much sums up the luxury watch market as it exists today, although the market is getting soft and prices are better. If you want to get an idea if the trend for Rolex Daytona, checkout the www.watchcharts.com for market trends.

Currently the data from WatchCharts Analytics for a Rolex 116500LN Panda is as follows:

• As of January 2024, the average price of the Rolex Cosmograph Daytona (116500) on the private sales market is $27,750
• You can expect to pay $29,504 from a secondary market dealer
• Data is out of 4,713 sales
• Market range is $25,641 - $29,859
• Market volatility 7.6%

When looking up a specific model, the website provides pricing trends.

Enjoy!

[SLWoodster]

They’re actively trying to keep the watch out of the hands of “novice” collectors.

Just buy one at grey market price. It’s worth the lack of run a rounds.

[noshake]

You pretty much got it. You could also spend thousands become a preferred client and get it out the back safe.

[SubDate]

As with most things in life, there is no “fair” in the luxury watch market. It is what it is, because conditions led it to be that way. As a buyer you have 2 choices: 1. get in line at an AD or 2. pay the inflated secondary market price to obtain the watch sooner. Option 1 takes more time, option 2 takes more money.

There is a huge difference between “the way it should be” and the way it actually is. That is our objective reality.

[mjolnir2thor]

Originally Posted by SubDate

As with most things in life, there is no “fair” in the luxury watch market. It is what it is, because conditions led it to be that way. As a buyer you have 2 choices: 1. get in line at an AD or 2. pay the inflated secondary market price to obtain the watch sooner. Option 1 takes more time, option 2 takes more money.

There is a huge difference between “the way it should be” and the way it actually is. That is our objective reality.

Problem is that choice #1 presents NO guarantees since you could be strung along for years. I've had such an experience.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by mjolnir2thor

Problem is that choice #1 presents NO guarantees since you could be strung along for years. I've had such an experience.

Or Rolex pulls their AD status before you got a watch. This has happened a lot on TRF this past year.

[SubDate]

Originally Posted by mjolnir2thor

Problem is that choice #1 presents NO guarantees since you could be strung along for years. I've had such an experience.

True but Rolex never guarantees anything to customers. They are under no obligation to keep a promise. Any business can refuse service for ANY reason at anytime. UNLESS a contract was signed by you and the AD stating “you will receive a 126610LN by Feb 1 2024” and that obviously does not happen. You chose Rolex and therefore need to accept the good and bad that may come of it. Fair? No. But then again that was the point of my original reply.

[mjolnir2thor]

Originally Posted by SubDate

True but Rolex never guarantees anything to customers. They are under no obligation to keep a promise. Any business can refuse service for ANY reason at anytime. UNLESS a contract was signed by you and the AD stating “you will receive a 126610LN by Feb 1 2024” and that obviously does not happen. You chose Rolex and therefore need to accept the good and bad that may come of it. Fair? No. But then again that was the point of my original reply.

Should have clarified... I am referring to the AD. You could spend years buying merchandise and in the "hope" of getting that call. IMHO that's why the pre-owned market has flourished to this point.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by SubDate

True but Rolex never guarantees anything to customers. They are under no obligation to keep a promise. Any business can refuse service for ANY reason at anytime. UNLESS a contract was signed by you and the AD stating “you will receive a 126610LN by Feb 1 2024” and that obviously does not happen. You chose Rolex and therefore need to accept the good and bad that may come of it. Fair? No. But then again that was the point of my original reply.

This is why bundling the watch with a higher end jewelry purchase makes the most sense to protect yourself, otherwise the risk is on you. Or just go grey, if you don't have a AD relationship and you don't think it's likely that the extra spend will get you the watch you want, why would you take the chance?

[SubDate]

Originally Posted by mjolnir2thor

Should have clarified... I am referring to the AD. You could spend years buying merchandise and in the "hope" of getting that call. IMHO that's why the pre-owned market has flourished to this point.

Totally agree. It’s a broken system and sad we ended up here. In my opinion it would be more accurate for the AD to say “ we feel $8000 in jewelry purchases are needed by our business and owner to sell you a Daytona. If you pay 8K over retail, I’ll grab you one from the back right now.” at least at that point you can either say yes or go to hell! You would know immediately!

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by SubDate

Totally agree. It’s a broken system and sad we ended up here. In my opinion it would be more accurate for the AD to say “ we feel $8000 in jewelry purchases are needed by our business and owner to sell you a Daytona. If you pay 8K over retail, I’ll grab you one from the back right now.” at least at that point you can either say yes or go to hell! You would know immediately!

Rolex website explicitly does not allow this, hence the AD not being direct on this point. It's implied but without a specific figure.

[SubDate]

Originally Posted by Nads786

This is why bundling the watch with a higher end jewelry purchase makes the most sense to protect yourself, otherwise the risk is on you. Or just go grey, if you don't have a AD relationship and you don't think it's likely that the extra spend will get you the watch you want, why would you take the chance?

@Nads786 true and I know from your journey you have a lot of experience with a long wait with a suspect AD who was deceptive!

[andrewjb88]

Originally Posted by Hulkhunter

A lot on of the adverts on chrono 24 are there fishing for customers, they don’t actually have the watch in hand so the numbers won’t be a true reflection.

Yeh I thought this as well.

[nighthawk77]

After reading another thread on a recent FT article, I thought this was interesting from the article:


“Dealers who bought watches near the peak are holding out rather than taking the loss, so there’s a lot of supply on the sidelines and steadily rising levels of distress.“

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by Dvfilms

Hello! I’m brand new to watch collecting and since I started looking into it a month ago I’ve learned a few things, but there’s also a few things that I don’t understand that don’t seem to add up. I’ll explain…



I was looking for a Daytona for my 50th this year. After 5 minutes of online research I learned it’s impossible to get at retail from an AD. So I called 18 dealers in the northeast US where I live who confirmed it. They told me it’s impossible, it’s the unicorn, there’s hundreds on the waitlist at every AD…etc. Ok fine. It is what it is.



Then I go on Chrono24 and see hundreds of them for sale, and not just used. There were over 400 that were new. That was interesting to me, and curious. Then I look at a local chain store on Long Island where I live and even they had 94 of them for sale. Many also new but of course at twice the price of retail.



My question is, how is it I’m told they’re impossible to find new if there’s so many for sale? And I only looked in a few places. God knows how many there actually are for sale worldwide. My guess is well into the thousands. And they’re sitting. I’m following about 15 of them just out of curiosity to see if they’re actually selling, but they’re not. They’re sitting. At twice the price.



Now I’m no expert but it seems to me that if there are so many and they’re all sitting that the market is actually a little saturated and they’re overpriced. By far. Which again is why they’re sitting. It almost seems as if the market is falsely inflated in an attempt to command exorbitant prices. It seem to me that the AD’s are dealing out the back door to create this false sense of value. How else could all these grey market guys have them brand new for sale. Did they wait out the 300 people/50 year wait list to get them? Of course not.



Again, I’m a novice and I’m sure I’m way off base with all this but to a novice it sure seems like this is what’s going on.



Can anyone who actually knows confirm any of this? I’d just like to understand what’s going on here.



Thanks everyone!

So call the dealers and offer what you are willing to pay.

It's very simple, demand exceeds supply...but with a twist. Authorized dealers can't charge over MSRP. They can, and often do, allocate the few they have to big spender, particularly tall, attractive, or just generally pleasant.

While there is some degree of shenanigans where watches may leave thru the back door at prices over MSRP, most new or near new watches you see on the secondary market are likely just people who managed to buy at MSRP and flipping for a quick profit.

But again, decide what you are willing to pay and go from there. None of the secondary market guys wants to start a price war in public.

[Dirt]

Welcome to the forum

For a novice you seem fairly savvy already.
As another respondent said. Hoe did you land on a Daytona for your first foray into "watch collecting"?
Not that there's anything wrong with a Daytona, but for your first?

Anyway I wish you good luck in your quest to get one from a dealer and I think you better be able to put your best foot forward in negotiating the "right price" for a new one on the grey market.
Buy the seller first and the watch second is my advise to you for the best result in taking the path of least resistance.

Have you looked at any other watches?