Hot Take: The Rolex Market Is Not Down...

[askdanny]

...If You Zoom Out.

Looking at WatchCharts, Rolex market is standing higher now than it was when the world entered a pandemic, in mid-March of 2020, and people had money to burn. Rolex display cases were already empty then.

If you had bought a Rolex watch at market value on March 15, 2020, before the biggest market rally in Rolex’s history, you could still pocket a 18.9% profit today, after a staggering nine-quarters-in-a-row decline, according to WatchCharts Rolex Index.




So is the market down... or just nursing a hangover?

Danny
https://coron.et

[ArtNouveau]

Although I did not buy them with their future value considered, all four of my Rolex are worth more than what I paid for them. I think hangover is a good analogy.

[Rolexatlast]

Any such chart can always show that prices were lower in the past.

The question “Is the market down?” only makes sense if the meaning is: ‘are Rolex going down in value?’ - to which the answer is ‘yes’

[taylor2000]

Starting in late 2020, most watches bought at retail could be sold for a profit. That pushes demand through the roof. What wouldn't you buy if you could sell it for a 20% profit?

As that opportunity to profit shrinks, demand will necessarily contract. That's true of new watches from ADs but also try of pre-owned watches. If demand contracts, prices will fall. It's not like all those watches bought over the last 20 years all of a sudden disappeared. Everyone that bought a watch as an investment will invariably sell it when they realize prices continue to drop.

It's going to snowball. If you're someone who likes watches (me!) I'd just keep your powder dry. The deals are only getting better. Rolex is expanding production, it's going to get great for those of us who don't care about "investing" in watches.

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[brandrea]

The pandemic created lots of bubbles.

[JRell]

My BLNR was $10,900 retail. That is the only Rolex market I care about.

[enjoythemusic]

Sugar high after affects, but now more people in general want sugar.

[hojlund]

Originally Posted by JRell

My BLNR was $10,900 retail. That is the only Rolex market I care about.

same here, have zero interest in grey market prices. I only buy watches which look good on my wrist, not what they worth in the secondary market.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by brandrea

The pandemic created lots of bubbles.

Yes Brian and thousands lost there lives which was far more important than whether the Rolex market is up or down.The most precious thing we have is life,yet it has no trade in or market value not even for watches
.

[subtona]

That’s just inflation.

[L_S_SHOE]

Is anyone else tired of these market up/down/speculation/investment/value/etc threads?

Have we considered putting these into their own subforum?


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[goldboy]

It's all just tied to monetary easing/quantitative tightening. We just went through a tightening after all the covid money printing, and we're about to re-enter easing again with the lowering of rates and more money printing. The chart will follow.

[t65tampa]

Yes, the market value for Rolex watches is lower than what it was a couple of years ago. Try selling a watch in today's market and you won't get what you could have gotten for it in 2022. It doesn't matter what some web site tells you your watch is worth, the point of sale is what matters.

At the same time, if you buy a watch or any other luxury item and it brings you pleasure, the market value is irrelevant.

[SLWoodster]

Secondary market helps to measure excess demand. New and uninformed enthusiasts expect this to measure true demand. There is a large large gap between when a Rolex sells for between retail+tax on c24 vs when you actually see it in the shelves on a regular basis.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by t65tampa

At the same time, if you buy a watch or any other luxury item and it brings you pleasure, the market value is irrelevant.

That pretty much fits my little universe. I would rather pay £100 for something which is nice, useful, good value for money, makes me feel happy, is a keeper, than £1 on junk I will throw away. Value retention is nice to have - for my children.

Originally Posted by brandrea

The pandemic created lots of bubbles.

It sure did. Looks like there's been a steady and modest up trend for most models once you disregard the big spike. I'm glad we're past that frenzy for all sorts of reasons, not least the body count, as I'm sure you are too.

[HMHM]

Naturally, just with inflation alone, Rolex prices will gradually increase on its own.

I think the main issue that people are trying to point out is that dealers were trying to spin the narrative that watches can only go in one direction, which is upwards. That was the main selling point when the 116500LN hit 50k during its peak to convince new customers that their money is "safe", despite severely overpaying for the watch.

So from that POV, a watch that was 50k in 2021 is now 25-30k - that represents a significant drop in value, isn't it? Or are we just going to conveniently ignore the downward trajectory from its peak for those who trusted the "financial advice" given by the secondary dealers?

[espanol]

All these pricing threads... You would think we're on an investing forum!

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by askdanny

...If You Zoom Out.

Looking at WatchCharts, Rolex market is standing higher now than it was when the world entered a pandemic, in mid-March of 2020, and people had money to burn. Rolex display cases were already empty then.

If you had bought a Rolex watch at market value on March 15, 2020, before the biggest market rally in Rolex’s history, you could still pocket a 18.9% profit today, after a staggering nine-quarters-in-a-row decline, according to WatchCharts Rolex Index.




So is the market down... or just nursing a hangover?

Danny
https://coron.et

So do we flip now or wait?

[Mr Ben]

18.9% increase in a 4 year, 4 month period of high inflation. Sounds about right actually.

[Son Goku]

You’re not considering the effects of inflation lol. A dollar in 2020 would cost $1.21 today.

If you take the $17,979 you’ve highlighted on your graph, this would cost $21,755 today.

So actually the market is DOWN compared to the 2024 point you highlighted

[Rollieo]

Would be nice if the y axes were actually labeled.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by espanol

All these pricing threads... You would think we're on an investing forum!

Well to many now Rolex watches are little more than ££€€$$ objects and little more,once they were bought to wear and enjoy but with some today these days are gone.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by espanol

All these pricing threads... You would think we're on an investing forum!

Well to many now Rolex watches are little more than ££€€$$ objects and little more,once they were bought to wear and enjoy but with some today these days are gone.

[Mathematoxic]

The Rolex watch I bought in June 2019 is down a 18% from MSRP of that time. So tell me it’s down or not?
I’m happy that it’s down as used mass produced items should be worth lesser than MSRP. Otherwise it does not make any sense to me.
Cheers!

[Wilco68]

Originally Posted by padi56

Well to many now Rolex watches are little more than ££€€$$ objects

You can’t really blame people for that. An attitude largely driven by Rolex themselves, who these days probably have the same view - albeit for them from a turnover & profit perspective…….

[Mr. K]

Originally Posted by padi56

... and thousands lost there lives which was far more important than whether the Rolex market is up or down.The most precious thing we have is life,yet it has no trade in or market value not even for watches
.

This is very well said.

We all love watches, that's why we are here. Good to keep perspective. Yes, I'm talking to myself.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by Mr. K

This is very well said.

We all love watches, that's why we are here.

[joe100]

These market discussions are tiresome. I remember pre-2018 TRF where we talked watches.

[Oxfordian]

Originally Posted by Wilco68

You can’t really blame people for that. An attitude largely driven by Rolex themselves, who these days probably have the same view - albeit for them from a turnover & profit perspective…….

How is our greed Rolex's fault?

Rolex simply make watches, that half the world seemed to want the same brand of watch at the same time can hardly be the fault of the manufacturer, or am I missing something?

[enjoythemusic]

Folks, folks, everyone...

Look, am doing all i can to keep this baby propped up.