So why are people really getting “the call” now?

[clepsydratime]

Noon question here. I hear about these “games” you have to do to build history and credibility with an AD.

I’m wanting to buy my first new Rolex and invest in a long term AD relationship.

Thinking my first purchase will be an OP28 for a close family member for the upcoming holiday season. I assume this smaller women’s watch is not in-demand. Hoping to get the call before this December.

Could this be my lead-in for purchasing a more popular Explorer (which would be my watch)?

[thenewrick]

Always best to just ask for the reference you actually want. Then just follow up in person every month or two and keep checking in and be patient.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by clepsydratime

Noon question here. I hear about these “games” you have to do to build history and credibility with an AD.

I’m wanting to buy my first new Rolex and invest in a long term AD relationship.

Thinking my first purchase will be an OP28 for a close family member for the upcoming holiday season. I assume this smaller women’s watch is not in-demand. Hoping to get the call before this December.

Could this be my lead-in for purchasing a more popular Explorer (which would be my watch)?

explorers aren't exactly popular so you shouldn't have trouble getting them

[bogardon]

its not like private buyers who bought at msrp are turning around and selling them on for ~msrp...so i can't really fault the "trusted sellers" for their greed as it were.

If I had to "blame" anyone it would be ADs for allegedly sellling to greys and maybe Rolex for not policing it.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by clepsydratime

Noon question here. I hear about these “games” you have to do to build history and credibility with an AD.

I’m wanting to buy my first new Rolex and invest in a long term AD relationship.

Thinking my first purchase will be an OP28 for a close family member for the upcoming holiday season. I assume this smaller women’s watch is not in-demand. Hoping to get the call before this December.

Could this be my lead-in for purchasing a more popular Explorer (which would be my watch)?

Yea, I would assume with that purchase you'd be strongly in the running to get the Explorer which isn't in crazy demand.

[the dark knight]

Summer is traditionally slow for watch sales and jewelry, people are traveling and spending money on other stuff. Generally picks back up after Halloween as we approach the Holiday season.

Also seems like ADs have the most supply they've had since the pandemic started, so feels like the supply/demand equation is roughly around 2019 levels.

[RollyPolly2020]

I got the call from an AD in Southern California, after only waiting about 1 mo, no purchase history.

I asked for a less popular model though.

[Willyjo]

They are coming out of the woodwork like termites. I have received calls from several AD’s that I “registered interest” with over the years with watches on offer. Mostly SkyDwellers on oyster flex. But also PM SD and some DD.

Not seeing steel yet.


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[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by bogardon

its not like private buyers who bought at msrp are turning around and selling them on for ~msrp...so i can't really fault the "trusted sellers" for their greed as it were.

If I had to "blame" anyone it would be ADs for allegedly sellling to greys and maybe Rolex for not policing it.

Profit isn’t greed.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by bogardon

its not like private buyers who bought at msrp are turning around and selling them on for ~msrp...so i can't really fault the "trusted sellers" for their greed as it were.

If I had to "blame" anyone it would be ADs for allegedly sellling to greys and maybe Rolex for not policing it.

My understanding is that ADs lose their status if they get caught selling to the grey market. That sound like a lot of policing by Rolex to me.

[aprado17]

Originally Posted by BillA

Why is it different now? US economy seems to be skirting any type of recession, Unemployment numbers are low, consumers seem to be spending.

I visited my AD recently so that they don't forget my face :) Spoke in general about watches, market, etc., and they mentioned that a lot of demand comes from China, where the economy is not doing so great. US is a huge market, but so is China, so this could be part of the reason why more people seem to be getting the call, specially for smaller size watches. Not me yet (I'm in EU), but I'm patient.

[BillA]

So after starting this thread, and reading 5 pages of comments I still do not see any change in prices………no call here from AD………I watch youtube videos of dealers saying a 41mm ceramic SubDate can be had at msrp…….this is not born out by asking prices on this forum. Am I missing something?

[varun]

Watches that NOBODY wants, yes we all get calls for them
a $40k+ White GOLD Submariner and GOLD Skydweller lol

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by BillA

So after starting this thread, and reading 5 pages of comments I still do not see any change in prices………no call here from AD………I watch youtube videos of dealers saying a 41mm ceramic SubDate can be had at msrp…….this is not born out by asking prices on this forum. Am I missing something?

I visited my AD in person to get an update on my Sub Date, the one guy ahead of me got his sub two weeks ago, so I can expect mine in the next 2-4 months.

For reference I started my search March 4th and had prior spend history ( my Wife’s engagement ring).


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[stockae92]

Originally Posted by varun

Watches that NOBODY wants, yes we all get calls for them
a $40k+ White GOLD Submariner and GOLD Skydweller lol

LOL on the white gold sub. Got a call from AD on one too. 🤣

[goodolejr]

Originally Posted by stockae92

LOL on the white gold sub. Got a call from AD on one too. 🤣

The current version can't hold a candle to the Smurf.

[Oystersteel92]

I'm interested to see what happens once the professional class with large student loans (doctors, lawyers etc) starts having to repay their student loans. Going from $0 a month to a couple thousand dollars or more a month might give one pause when saying yes to an AD. Interest starts to accrue again September 1st with payments resuming October 1st. 44 million Americans have student loans, totaling $1.6 trillion. Source, USA Today.

I've also noticed that local car lots are finally starting to build new vehicle inventory too. No idea what a car loan is going for these days but after having had one for 0.99% I'm not looking to sign up for one at 5% or more.

[puma1552]

Originally Posted by Nads786

I visited my AD in person to get an update on my Sub Date, the one guy ahead of me got his sub two weeks ago, so I can expect mine in the next 2-4 months.

I visited one of the three ADs I'm on the list at today (the one I felt was least likely to call based on the initial interaction I had seven weeks ago) only to find out that my SA disappeared 3 weeks ago, so now I really don't expect a call.

I guess now I know why I didn't get an impression I would get a call after the initial expression of interest, she was probably already looking for a new job...

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by Nads786

I visited my AD in person to get an update on my Sub Date, the one guy ahead of me got his sub two weeks ago, so I can expect mine in the next 2-4 months.

For reference I started my search March 4th and had prior spend history ( my Wife’s engagement ring).


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If you are truly the next on “the list” for a Sub Date your wait should be weeks not months. Bigger dealers get multiples every month.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

I'm interested to see what happens once the professional class with large student loans (doctors, lawyers etc) starts having to repay their student loans. Going from $0 a month to a couple thousand dollars or more a month might give one pause when saying yes to an AD. Interest starts to accrue again September 1st with payments resuming October 1st. 44 million Americans have student loans, totaling $1.6 trillion. Source, USA Today.

I've also noticed that local car lots are finally starting to build new vehicle inventory too. No idea what a car loan is going for these days but after having had one for 0.99% I'm not looking to sign up for one at 5% or more.

In general I don’t think students are the Rolex market

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

If you are truly the next on “the list” for a Sub Date your wait should be weeks not months. Bigger dealers get multiples every month.

I agree, could be a case of under promise over deliver or simply I’m getting continuously bumped by big spenders.

I’ve sunk cost fallacied my way to holding on until the bitter end now.


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[ArtNouveau]

I have hesitated to comment on this thread because honestly anyone’s opinion here is just speculation. I am a valued client of my AD, I know some parts of how they operate but I also realize there’s machinations behind the scene that I am not privy to. I do have zero belief any watch has ever been sold “out the back door” at my AD. I know a couple years ago they were said to be the third highest volume dealer in the US, you get that way by having a huge database of loyal clients, not by taking the chance of having your status stripped away.
My latest purchase transpired like this: in April I asked for a Celebration dial OP41 and was told it might be possible. In early July I was told by my SA that after receiving their allocation numbers for the rest of 2023 I would not make the cut. I then asked about my second choice, a green dial, and was told that was doable “within six months.” I then got the call last week, less than 30 days since I had asked. AFAIK they are still selling most watches to someone waiting as soon as it arrives, certainly most references. My summary is demand might be cooling some but it will still be PM and more obscure references that result in random calls or make it to the case. No guess as to when or if we’ll see the full range back in cases of immediate purchase.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by puma1552

I visited one of the three ADs I'm on the list at today (the one I felt was least likely to call based on the initial interaction I had seven weeks ago) only to find out that my SA disappeared 3 weeks ago, so now I really don't expect a call.

I guess now I know why I didn't get an impression I would get a call after the initial expression of interest, she was probably already looking for a new job...

Yeah - the other three ADs have given me zero commitment.

I think if I didn’t purchase the engagement ring in 2019 I would have been completely blown off by all.


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[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by BillA

In general I don’t think students are the Rolex market

Not actual students, but graduates with hefty student loans.

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I have hesitated to comment on this thread because honestly anyone’s opinion here is just speculation. I am a valued client of my AD, I know some parts of how they operate but I also realize there’s machinations behind the scene that I am not privy to. I do have zero belief any watch has ever been sold “out the back door” at my AD. I know a couple years ago they were said to be the third highest volume dealer in the US, you get that way by having a huge database of loyal clients, not by taking the chance of having your status stripped away.
My latest purchase transpired like this: in April I asked for a Celebration dial OP41 and was told it might be possible. In early July I was told by my SA that after receiving their allocation numbers for the rest of 2023 I would not make the cut. I then asked about my second choice, a green dial, and was told that was doable “within six months.” I then got the call last week, less than 30 days since I had asked. AFAIK they are still selling most watches to someone waiting as soon as it arrives, certainly most references. My summary is demand might be cooling some but it will still be PM and more obscure references that result in random calls or make it to the case. No guess as to when or if we’ll see the full range back in cases of immediate purchase.

This describes my AD nearly perfectly, as well.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

I'm interested to see what happens once the professional class with large student loans (doctors, lawyers etc) starts having to repay their student loans. Going from $0 a month to a couple thousand dollars or more a month might give one pause when saying yes to an AD. Interest starts to accrue again September 1st with payments resuming October 1st. 44 million Americans have student loans, totaling $1.6 trillion. Source, USA Today.

I've also noticed that local car lots are finally starting to build new vehicle inventory too. No idea what a car loan is going for these days but after having had one for 0.99% I'm not looking to sign up for one at 5% or more.

Agreed. There is a huge swath of the population on the edge (financially) not because of lack of income but because of overspending at their income level. The numbers I’ve seen suggest a non-trivial % of Rolex buyers fall into that category (let’s call it 25%). That market is under pressure…

[Mulletmaster]

Nothing changed locally in the UK. Local AD still very bullish.

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[Cousteau390]

My Perspective:

The effects of inflation can lag in excess of 18 months. Consumer budgets have certainly begun to burst. Most of these greys are just as overleveraged as any irresponsible banking institution today. They are slave to supply/demand just like everyone else, so get ready to witness some detonations of hyperextended grey market dealers.

Rolex is taking control of the pre-owned market... revoking AD status for malpractices and mal-investment... while making significant efforts to increase production.

There are so many simultaneous factors at play here... it's all unprecedented, yet the song remains the same.

All I know, is I buy these things to enjoy like the pieces of functional art that they are... so my personal 'demand' remains unchanged. I am fortunate to have a great relationship with my AD and plan on growing it. I don't doubt RRP will continue to increase due to simple inflation, just as they always have. Steady as she goes.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I have hesitated to comment on this thread because honestly anyone’s opinion here is just speculation. I am a valued client of my AD, I know some parts of how they operate but I also realize there’s machinations behind the scene that I am not privy to. I do have zero belief any watch has ever been sold “out the back door” at my AD. I know a couple years ago they were said to be the third highest volume dealer in the US, you get that way by having a huge database of loyal clients, not by taking the chance of having your status stripped away.
My latest purchase transpired like this: in April I asked for a Celebration dial OP41 and was told it might be possible. In early July I was told by my SA that after receiving their allocation numbers for the rest of 2023 I would not make the cut. I then asked about my second choice, a green dial, and was told that was doable “within six months.” I then got the call last week, less than 30 days since I had asked. AFAIK they are still selling most watches to someone waiting as soon as it arrives, certainly most references. My summary is demand might be cooling some but it will still be PM and more obscure references that result in random calls or make it to the case. No guess as to when or if we’ll see the full range back in cases of immediate purchase.

This is both my experience and belief.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I have hesitated to comment on this thread because honestly anyone’s opinion here is just speculation. I am a valued client of my AD, I know some parts of how they operate but I also realize there’s machinations behind the scene that I am not privy to. I do have zero belief any watch has ever been sold “out the back door” at my AD. I know a couple years ago they were said to be the third highest volume dealer in the US, you get that way by having a huge database of loyal clients, not by taking the chance of having your status stripped away.
My latest purchase transpired like this: in April I asked for a Celebration dial OP41 and was told it might be possible. In early July I was told by my SA that after receiving their allocation numbers for the rest of 2023 I would not make the cut. I then asked about my second choice, a green dial, and was told that was doable “within six months.” I then got the call last week, less than 30 days since I had asked. AFAIK they are still selling most watches to someone waiting as soon as it arrives, certainly most references. My summary is demand might be cooling some but it will still be PM and more obscure references that result in random calls or make it to the case. No guess as to when or if we’ll see the full range back in cases of immediate purchase.

This notion that ADs sell Rolex watches out the back door or directly to the secondary market is pure internet fiction. It makes no sense for obvious reasons.

Merchants only "dump" goods on "grey markets" to raise capital, they never do it when they can readily sell those goods in their business to retail customers.

The added profit to be gained on a few hot pieces sold to the grey market is miniscule compared to the profit being made on selling the Rolex line at MSRP in the ordinary course of business and the profits from the "random foot traffic sales" generated by having Rolex in the store. People see the Rolex billboards in an area and flock to that store to see the brand. Get them in the store and they might and often will buy something non-Rolex on a whim. Plus, now everyone wants to develop a purchase history no matter how small to ultimately get a Rolex.

Being able to provide and sell the most coveted Rolex watches in the store enables the store to attract and build up big spending repeat customers and lets the store bundle such watch sales with other expensive merchandize resulting in far more profit than a split profit with some used watch dealer.

Being caught by Rolex selling out the back door means loss of the Rolex dealership which is a death blow to a jewelry store in this economic environment where traditional jewelry sales have been very slow for years. Plus, most other mid-tier brands just sit in the cases and are only sold through discounting.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I have hesitated to comment on this thread because honestly anyone’s opinion here is just speculation. I am a valued client of my AD, I know some parts of how they operate but I also realize there’s machinations behind the scene that I am not privy to. I do have zero belief any watch has ever been sold “out the back door” at my AD. I know a couple years ago they were said to be the third highest volume dealer in the US, you get that way by having a huge database of loyal clients, not by taking the chance of having your status stripped away.
My latest purchase transpired like this: in April I asked for a Celebration dial OP41 and was told it might be possible. In early July I was told by my SA that after receiving their allocation numbers for the rest of 2023 I would not make the cut. I then asked about my second choice, a green dial, and was told that was doable “within six months.” I then got the call last week, less than 30 days since I had asked. AFAIK they are still selling most watches to someone waiting as soon as it arrives, certainly most references. My summary is demand might be cooling some but it will still be PM and more obscure references that result in random calls or make it to the case. No guess as to when or if we’ll see the full range back in cases of immediate purchase.

I may have missed this, but what is the conclusion? You received your watch much sooner than the timeline they gave you.

What do you think that indicates?