Growth Potential between 5/6 Digit Subs

[JDCunny]

I’m looking at YG Subs and a question that comes up is future predictions...

Given same variables (Mint, Complete Kit, both YG/Blue) and both bought at fair secondary price ($19K for solid Lug 16618 & $25.5 for 116618LB) what do they track over the next 5-10 years?

Ive seen some say the 5 digits have more room because of history and some say 6 digit because of improvements....

Any guesses at which reference has the most room to appreciate?

[padi56]

Originally Posted by JDCunny

I’m looking at YG Subs and a question that comes up is future predictions...

Given same variables (Mint, Complete Kit, both YG/Blue) and both bought at fair secondary price ($19K for solid Lug 16618 & $25.5 for 116618LB) what do they track over the next 5-10 years?

Ive seen some say the 5 digits have more room because of history and some say 6 digit because of improvements....

Any guesses at which reference has the most room to appreciate?

Cannot help you my crystal ball is broken, but in general to proportion of price paid most all precious metal watches do not hold there value in proportion to most all SS.

[904VT]

A watch is not a stock. A watch should last you a lifetime, especially a Rolex, making your question a moot point. Why do you ask? If meant to wear and flip you’re playing with Fire. If history has taught us anything it’s that PM Rolex will get crushed when pressure is put on discretionary purchases. If the China/HK watch market isn’t enough to scare you then I say I have some Enron stock circa late 90’s I’d like to sell.

[BisonHead]

I have a Bridge if anybody is interested. One careful owner.....

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by JDCunny

Any guesses at which reference has the most room to appreciate?

Rephrase your question: Which watch is likely to depreciate more?

If the market declines by the same percentage across all references (which won't necessarily happen), the 5 digit will depreciate numerically less since it has a lower starting price.

If you are comfortable looking at your purchase as "I really want to own a YG professional model Rolex and am willing to assume some risk of depreciation because its worth it to enjoy a YG Rolex," then you are in a good place. If you expect it to increase in value over the next 5 years, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Me? I like the 6 digit more so risking an extra $6000 on the purchase price would be worth it to me.

[JDCunny]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

Rephrase your question: Which watch is likely to depreciate more?

If the market declines by the same percentage across all references (which won't necessarily happen), the 5 digit will depreciate numerically less since it has a lower starting price.

If you are comfortable looking at your purchase as "I really want to own a YG professional model Rolex and am willing to assume some risk of depreciation because its worth it to enjoy a YG Rolex," then you are in a good place. If you expect it to increase in value over the next 5 years, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Me? I like the 6 digit more so risking an extra $6000 on the purchase price would be worth it to me.

I guess I should rephrase like this....Which series is going to be most appreciated over time?

5 digit for classic style or 6 digit for updates.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by JDCunny

I guess I should rephrase like this....Which series is going to be most appreciated over time?

5 digit for classic style or 6 digit for updates.

Honestly, neither.

The main focus here is do you want a cheaper gold watch that is essentially a "cheaper" watch in that it has hollow links, a stamped clasp, aluminum bezel insert and slimmer case...which = less gold.

I think in PM the current version is the WTG...

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Originally Posted by BisonHead

I have a Bridge if anybody is interested. One careful owner.....

Did you get it at retail?

And how long did you have to wait?

That will determine fair market value

[Phooi]

Do you really like the watch? Do you planning on keeping it a long time? If so, get the one you like better since they are different designs.

Rolexes are decent sources of value but please don’t treat them as investments.

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Honestly, neither.

The main focus here is do you want a cheaper gold watch that is essentially a "cheaper" watch in that it has hollow links, a stamped clasp, aluminum bezel insert and slimmer case...which = less gold.

I think in PM the current version is the WTG...

Agree^^^^

If I were a gambling man I might pull the trigger on a Smurf.... could be the best bet (throw the dice) in the long run.....

[sillo]

Originally Posted by JDCunny

Which series is going to be most appreciated over time?

Nobody knows. Try both on and see which you like the most. Pick that one.

[Maiden]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Honestly, neither.

The main focus here is do you want a cheaper gold watch that is essentially a "cheaper" watch in that it has hollow links, a stamped clasp, aluminum bezel insert and slimmer case...which = less gold.

I think in PM the current version is the WTG...

Five digit PM subs have solid end links and solid bracelet links.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by 904VT

A watch is not a stock. A watch should last you a lifetime, especially a Rolex, making your question a moot point. Why do you ask? If meant to wear and flip you’re playing with Fire. If history has taught us anything it’s that PM Rolex will get crushed when pressure is put on discretionary purchases. If the China/HK watch market isn’t enough to scare you then I say I have some Enron stock circa late 90’s I’d like to sell.

You mind if I stop posting and just put +1 for your posts? Agree with this

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by JDCunny

I guess I should rephrase like this....Which series is going to be most appreciated over time?

5 digit for classic style or 6 digit for updates.

The point people are trying to make is if you expect a watch to appreciate you will be disappointed. You can try to minimize "loss" by buying for a good price, but you should buy something because its worth it to you to pay something to wear it, not because you are hoping it will appreciate.

[timepieceluvr]

I have a 116618, to be honest I don’t think these are “collectible” pieces.

I do think that over time, due to price increases the value might rise slightly but my Vanguard guy would make fun of me about the ROI.

If you buy right you probably can always get your money back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Seibei]

Honestly, who cares what they "track"? In terms of the purchase price and cost of service, then price loss/gain is very unlikely to be significant. If you want some real swings buy something like this:



https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/ma...e-now-hands-on

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

You mind if I stop posting and just put +1 for your posts? Agree with this

Very nice of you

[gunhose]

Here we go again. Some 5 digit subs have solid end links depending on the year. All have hollow center links!!The change came when 6 digits subs SS and gold references were brought out. Same for the whole line up of references. One exception SS yacht master always had solid middle links from day one.