in the safe, subs,and valuations

[sambb]

I see threads about some people buying a piece to put in the safe or not wear. however, when i look at older and much more rare subs (red lined subs, etc from the 70s), even though many are not not in perfect condition, looks like they top out in the 20s to 30s for most pieces. Obviously these are not mint unworn condition.

When i look at a total return in the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested, it does far better than a SS Sub from 30-40 years ago. Maybe there is different enjoyment however.

My main point, is that although one might make a little money with saving a SS piece for decades, perhaps that increase in value doesnt keep up with other investments, esp when considering insurance, upkeep/maintenance, theft etc.

So isnt best bet to just buy what someone likes and will wear, and not worry about long term value? Im certain that SS pieces likely will have good resale, but its not really an investment, is it?

And if not, then why do people put them in the safe? However, i imagine it can be a collectable hobby like stamp or coin collecting, and then you might just like having one in the safe??

Shouldnt we just be wearing our current subs and SDs and daytonas... or buying a vintage piece to admire?

[Chester01]

Yes, yes we should. But many of these folks that keep them in a safe are more interested in jewelry and not a watch to be worn as intended. And yes, the idea of these as investments is laughable at best.

[JayHantz]

Great points, OP. I agree with you - these are not investment pieces (take what you'd spend on a Daytona in 2007, put it in the stock market, and see which comes out ahead in 2020 - the Daytona or the investment).

I think we should all just buy what we like, and wear what we like.

[schoolboy]

Also consider that some watches that have been in the safe for years weren’t bought with that intention

I’ve read stories of how someone’s grandpa received a sub as a gift, threw it in the safe and never wore it

Then years later the family sells it for cheap because they don’t know what’s its worth, and someone lists it as “mint condition, near new old stock submariner” and asks a premium

[brandrea]

Watches are investments to some, and not to others. Either way, it’s tough to compare them to traditional investments.

I personally don’t view them as investable, as I am no where near a big enough fish to swim in that pond

[djgallo]

There are many collectors in this world, collecting many different things, ie. coins, comic books, baseball cards, cars, writing pens, etc. and I could go on and on....

Oh....surprise there are people that collect watches, and yes, many have watches that have appreciated over the years. I will agree that a watch collection may not have increased in value - to outpace the various financial market investments - but many have increased considerably from original purchase.

The enjoyment of investing and collecting watches is part of the overall satisfaction picture, and you can’t put a price on that.

If everyone compared what the stock market return is to the various collectables then nobody would collect anything!

In summary: It’s not always about return on your money.

[904VT]

They’re really just stores of value that keep up with inflation rather than investments. There’s a difference, but I don’t think most really understand.

[Zakalwe]

Watches definitely, positively, unarguably ARE investments...












...when I’m discussing my collection and wish-list with the missus.

Any other time, not so much.

[NachoNeal]

Originally Posted by JayHantz

Great points, OP. I agree with you - these are not investment pieces (take what you'd spend on a Daytona in 2007, put it in the stock market, and see which comes out ahead in 2020 - the Daytona or the investment).

I think we should all just buy what we like, and wear what we like.

Maybe the Daytona. . . . if you invested your money in Blockbuster Video or Trans World Airlines.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by sambb

Shouldnt we just be wearing our current subs and SDs and daytonas... or buying a vintage piece to admire?

Yes

However, few left here actually enjoy and appreciate watches.

Most are here to hop onto the hype train

[sambb]

I guess my point is that there is a difference between a watch collection (you like them) vs a watch investment (which is probably a fallacy for most watches).

Collections are great. But an investment? A finacial vehicle? maybe not.

Arent investments really a rare choice (newman daytona, etc are investments, but most people here are not investing in those).

For example, the SD4k might be a nice addition to a collection, but not really a nice investment piece. However a red sea dweller from the 70s might be a super-nice collection piece, and, very possibly could be a low return investment compared to the market and inflation.. but maybe not.

I think there is a difference between a collection and watches as an investment vehicle.

Enjoy your GMTs, SDs, Pepsis, Daytonas. If they are overpriced, or if you get one at the AD for MSRP, dont think it is an investment either way. Look at vintage pieces - a 5513, a red line sub. And compare to the inflation, the S&P, and others. Its not an investment. But it is great to see these on your wrists!

[TswaneNguni]

Can positively tell you that any Rolex I sold in the past would be worth MUCH more now .I would have done very well if I kept them all . E.G GMT II Red/black would be worth TEN times more now .NONE of my investments can beat that .

I am very reluctant to sell any Rolex now.Last sold one in 2008 and now keeping them all .

Rolex ,the new gold standard .

[rmlovett1]

I agree...should be bought for enjoyment... (IMO)
As far as being an “investment” .... I guess it depends on the individual, and what they consider a good ROI.
Some may think doubling your money by flipping is a great haul, and technically doubling your money quickly IS a good thing, quick cash....but, other than....

There are one offs (Paul Newman Daytona) ....But in general...a TRUE investment, where you’ll make real money towards retirement, etc....these are not. (At least not the modern ones)

[TswaneNguni]

Lets also not be naive ,the long lines for the BLROs and Daytonas are not really made up of "watch enthusiasts" ...

Lets take an example : How much would the flipper make immediately if he/she sells a White Daytona to a Grey dealer ?
Hows that for ROI ?

[daytonagmt]

Well, if I was smart to buy AAPL on 4 Jan 2019, I would have doubled the money now. But who knew that on 4 Jan 2019? It was $22X in August 2018 and $148 on 4 Jan 2019.

SS Daytona has always been good though. I got my first SS Daytona Black in 2013 at list price. I have been wearing it since then. I got a chance to buy another SS Daytona black in 2014 at list price. I decided to keep it as NOS and put it in a safe as 30 years investment. So far it has been doing ok.



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[RHIII]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes



However, few left here actually enjoy and appreciate watches.



Most are here to hop onto the hype train

Sadly the truth. There are few of us left around here.

I’ve even received a few PMs from newer members asking what the deal is....

Will be very interesting when the hype slows down a bit — or around Basel time....


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[Chaching]

Guys get over it..... proven time and time again watches “Certain Ones” can become very collectible and valuable... I own several examples including my Dad’s original Rolex 36mm SS 6240 1967 Paul Newman that he purchased new. That watch is worth several hundred thousand. The difference with me is ....I buy and own my watches to wear and enjoy not to put in a safe to collect dust..... OH and pray for a ROI.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Guys get over it..... proven time and time again watches “Certain Ones” can become very collectible and valuable... I own several examples including my Dad’s original Rolex 36mm SS 6240 1967 Paul Newman that he purchased new. That watch is worth several hundred thousand. The difference with me is ....I buy and own my watches to wear and enjoy not to put in a safe to collect dust.

..of course ,but it wont hurt if they keep their value or increase in value.That's while using them .
Otherwise, we wont advise "other brand" buyers to get a huge discounts from the AD.

[Max7857]

Just as your home in spite of being a nice appreciating asset is a horrible investment compared to the stock market long term the same holds true for a Rolex. For most it is the emotional attachment to our homes or watches that allow us to rationalize them as good “investments”.

[Nikrnic]

Different strokes. I buy to wear and not for value but if the pieces I love and own happen to hold, go down or gain value so be it. I make my money different ways so collecting watches is my 'now' reward and has become my invested hobby. I do it only for the love and enjoyment of mechanical timepieces, no matter the brand.


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[Seaswirl]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Guys get over it..... proven time and time again watches “Certain Ones” can become very collectible and valuable... I own several examples including my Dad’s original Rolex 36mm SS 6240 1967 Paul Newman that he purchased new. That watch is worth several hundred thousand. The difference with me is ....I buy and own my watches to wear and enjoy not to put in a safe to collect dust..... OH and pray for a ROI.

That’s not a Newman dial Daytona. Beauty though.

[Tools]

Originally Posted by sambb

I guess my point is that there is a difference between a watch collection (you like them) vs a watch investment (which is probably a fallacy for most watches).

Collections are great. But an investment? A finacial vehicle? maybe not.

Arent investments really a rare choice (newman daytona, etc are investments, but most people here are not investing in those).

. . .

Investments are speculation, not guaranteed returns.

Even in the stock market there are plenty of people who make poor investment decisions, so too with watches.

There are plenty of people, right now, buying and selling watches and making good money. They are investing, are they not?

Others are buying and holding with the hope to see a good return at some future date. Some will, some won't.

[Pantheon]

I look at watches simply as a luxury and enjoyment. I don't bother with resale value as long as I like the watch. Watch investments I would say are real collector exclusive pieces such as advanced research PP models, Paul Newmans, and other vintage pieces such as the bond sub that has a very strong reputation and an established history.

Any modern Rolex is just a fad and isn't a true investment. Just like fads some stay and some don't. I saw a video of a guy who made a ton of money on buying Paul Newmans but lost money on bubble backs because the bubble backs were super hot at the time and just fell out of favor. Current SS models are not true investments until they stand the test of time. Its like the stock market there are going to be some winners and some losers but its never certain. Some winners go bankrupt while losers turn around and surge ahead (original milgauss for example)

Flipping shouldn't be confused with investing. Flipping is to sell on the hype of the item and does not in any way pave the road for the watch to rise meteorically in the future. I can technically do the same thing with sold out concert tickets buy them for $80 then turn around and sell for $200 to someone desperate. Its an awesome return but I don't know if I can call it an investment. You are just inserting yourself as a middleman during the hype and taking advantage of the desperate people.

Large scale production models are very hard to achieve collector status in a few decades time usually its the more obscure and niche pieces that do. Like the original milgauss that flopped horribly and the vintage Daytonas that Rolex couldn't even give away all blow up. Modern hype watches are produced in huge volumes and Rolex will milk the hype for all its worth. Just buy what you love and if they do blow up and price that's awesome but even if they don't you like the piece and enjoy it so I can say its a win-win? I just don't believe in buying a piece based on the idea of investment alone unless you are stacking millions and just trying to diversify your portfolio

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes

However, few left here actually enjoy and appreciate watches.

Most are here to hop onto the hype train

Agree!

[DRKBC]

Originally Posted by Max7857

Just as your home in spite of being a nice appreciating asset is a horrible investment compared to the stock market long term the same holds true for a Rolex. For most it is the emotional attachment to our homes or watches that allow us to rationalize them as good “investments”.

Sadly it appears that I have apparently been investing in a different stock market than everyone else here.

[Ivan Drago]

Originally Posted by 904VT

They’re really just stores of value that keep up with inflation rather than investments. There’s a difference, but I don’t think most really understand.

Perfect answer