Another thread on prices…

[Jgives]

I’m sure many are tired of talking prices but I thought it might be interesting to take a poll. I am curious where members would like to see prices go: up, down, or sideways. Perhaps some would like to see the “bubble” burst to get into the brand or add to the collection, while others may appreciate wearing the gains on their wrist. Let’s find out where we all land…

[TunaTuna]

I'll never understand those who want the bubble to burst. Like everyone else in the world will be in financial trouble but you will be just fine?? If the bubble bursts, just remember your life, your bubble, will burst too. If prices crash, you won't be in a position to buy either

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

I'll never understand those who want the bubble to burst. Like everyone else in the world will be in financial trouble but you will be just fine?? If the bubble bursts, just remember your life, your bubble, will burst too. If prices crash, you won't be in a position to buy either

Absolutely. A sudden price collapse would need a very serious trigger - seems hubristic to presume one will be among the few unaffected and in the mood to buy watches in a crisis more devastating than 2008 or early 2020.

[DonLee]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

I'll never understand those who want the bubble to burst. Like everyone else in the world will be in financial trouble but you will be just fine?? If the bubble bursts, just remember your life, your bubble, will burst too. If prices crash, you won't be in a position to buy either

exactly, if there was some kind of burst, that would likely mean some kind of financial reckoning on a global scale, worst than say the pandemic. And in that case, there would be a lot of other assets also at fire-sale prices. But that would imply that most people will be struggling to keep a roof over their heads, let alone be buying nice watches

[Jsol]

I would not wish for a catastrophic collapse so I could buy more luxury. The implications for those less fortunate is not a trade-off to be made.


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[Mr.GL]

Originally Posted by Jsol

I would not wish for a catastrophic collapse so I could buy more luxury. The implications for those less fortunate is not a trade-off to be made.


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Well said .

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[Jgives]

I appreciate the perspectives here and you all make interesting points. However, let’s pretend that the bubble bursting in the watch market doesn’t mean that that the bubble burst economically across the planet for the purposes of the poll. Though it’s an interesting take that it would be one in the same.

[macrowatch]

If it’s about what I want, then I want MSRP to go down while gray proce goes up! Ha.

To OP, my guess would be economy goes down (if nothing else other than cyclical recession rather than black swan) before fad of watches passes.

I really, really don’t understand 5711 at 200k and jumbo at 150k plus. I mean when they when 5711 was at 50 or even 80 I could fathom in my mind someone paying that if I bent reality far enough. The new prices are beyond my comprehension. And therefore the dynamics of this stage of the watch craze deflating also elude me.

[Jgives]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

If it’s about what I want, then I want MSRP to go down while gray proce goes up! Ha.

To OP, my guess would be economy goes down (if nothing else other than cyclical recession rather than black swan) before fad of watches passes.

I really, really don’t understand 5711 at 200k and jumbo at 150k plus. I mean when they when 5711 was at 50 or even 80 I could fathom in my mind someone paying that if I bent reality far enough. The new prices are beyond my comprehension. And therefore the dynamics of this stage of the watch craze deflating also elude me.

You know if you lens out a bit I think you realize that the watches that are going crazy price wise represent a pretty small % of the overall market. Cartier, Rolex’s that aren’t Daytona’s or Torquoise, Omega’s, JLC, Panerai, Hublot, Breitling, IWC, Bregeut, Blancpain, etc etc. trade at retail or slightly above or below. It feels a bit like real estate in the sense that when these brands, like homes in Florida, Arizona, or Nevada, start popping….then maybe there is a real bubble forming. Otherwise, it’s just wise money finding precious things…

[OH2004]

Even if there is an economic collapse, watches will be least impacted. Yes it will soften but not collapse. First, currently supply and demand has never been this strong. It could normalize but demand will outpace supply. Second, there is no leveraged in this asset class. Finally, where would people put there money? Stock is at almost ATH, crypto is too risky, holding dollar you get killed by inflation, bonds are going to get killed as rates go up. Pick your poison.

[1William]

Straight up. Too much demand for limited product.

[dh1]

Originally Posted by Jgives

Otherwise, it’s just wise money finding precious things…

Yes, sadly... this seems like the fate of any rare collectables / consumables that aren't a transient fad. Once financialization becomes a major part of the picture, it's hard to go back... Art, shoes, wine, whisky, Magic cards, watches, cars, etc.

Originally the target buyer of these things are for people who want to e.g. wear watches / shoes or consume wine / whisky. As the thing is increasingly turned into a finacialized asset, people who want the item are competing with people who will buy the thing, put it in storage in a safe or freeport and wait for it to appreciate because it's rare. Or bundle it with other items and sell some sort of fund.

NFTs and bitcoin are sort of the purest form of this. They are technologically constructed to be limited and rare for the sake of being rare, and they have no other purpose. It's not like wine, where people who want to drink wine are now priced out by people who want to put it in storage in a freeport and make money off of holding it.

[Jgives]

Originally Posted by dh1

Yes, sadly... this seems like the fate of any rare collectables / consumables that aren't a transient fad. Once financialization becomes a major part of the picture, it's hard to go back... Art, shoes, wine, whisky, Magic cards, watches, cars, etc.

Originally the target buyer of these things are for people who want to e.g. wear watches / shoes or consume wine / whisky. As the thing is increasingly turned into a finacialized asset, people who want the item are competing with people who will buy the thing, put it in storage in a safe or freeport and wait for it to appreciate because it's rare. Or bundle it with other items and sell some sort of fund.

NFTs and bitcoin are sort of the purest form of this. They are technologically constructed to be limited and rare for the sake of being rare, and they have no other purpose. It's not like wine, where people who want to drink wine are now priced out by people who want to put it in storage in a freeport and make money off of holding it.

Insightful take here!