Slowing sales, will we get back to the past soon?

[S’portEye]

Originally Posted by Neil McCauley

Here we go again

Lol. You say that a lot.

[orangespicy]

I think the last 4 years has been an outlier in terms of all assets and luxury items. It was NOT the norm, and there has to be some sort of mean reversion (or else we are living in a fundamentally changed world..).

Pre 2018, and for decades prior, buying a rolex was always that simple. Just walk into an AD and buy. That didn't make it any less special, it was always a grail/milestone/special purchase for people. So even with tons of availability back then, rolex held it's brand and prestige and it's spot as king in the watch world. I think it will continue to and these purchases should be democratized IMO.

The price tag alone is enough of a barrier to maintain its scarcity, no need to add even more hurdles by making them unavailable as well.

[Zach69SS]

I think that Rolex and the Ad’s will continue this exhibition only BS because it has worked for them. Some of us in different markets with different AD’s will be offered a watch here and there, but even with the safe full watches they will say, oh Rolex is in such high demand we can put in a list? and maybe call you a few days later or not at all.
Unless things really go downhill and sales volume goes way down, then and only then we will see a real change.

I’m hoping as others on here that this will end soon because as a long time Rolex enthusiast it is a real turn off when this happens. I have heard every story at the AD’s shortage, not available, never will be , etc……

As others have mentioned on here many times it all depends on your relationship with the AD’s the big ones like WOS don’t care they have plenty of customers and control the markets they are in.

Just my $0.02

[Bozzie1982]

Here's to hoping it is. It'll get rid of the invester crowd and flippers. More for us enthusiast. I see only good news personally.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by Resto

Wilsdorf's philosophy for Rolex and Tudor was 'only great marketing is needed to make a company successful'

Post pandemic Rolex will limit supply despite opening new factories. Limited supply will increase demand as we have seen. I doubt the market will ever go back to "the good ole days..."

This makes absolutely no sense and goes against Econ 101, Management 101, Supply Chain 101, etc.

Why in the world would they open new factories just to LIMIT supply? A ton of money goes into building new facilities and hiring new people, money that needs to be recouped, and yet they are going to... limit supply? How? By idling the very factories they just built?

The idea that Rolex limits supply is a popular misconception that keeps getting thrown around. And yet their production always goes up, now to an estimated 1.25M watches/year.

I would be willing to bet the state of affairs that has gone on since roughly the 2nd half of 2018 caught Rolex by surprise, it wasn't some engineered plan.

The idea they all of a sudden want to constrain supply... why? So they can be like a Patek? Their entire infrastructure, product line, brand ethos, brand placement, marketing, etc is designed to be a company that churns out watches at an industrial level. They can't even be a JLC, much less a Patek.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Mystro

It’s a cycle. After 35+ years of Rolex ownership and watching the brand evolve first hand it could very well get worse. The assumption of a new manufacturing plant will equal more product to the public is flawed. Rolex isn’t the same brand it was a few years ago and Rolex control of their brand is even more absolute regardless of a new factory in the future. Rolex won’t let their display cases ever be filled again and they have made that very clear with cutting back AD’s and supplying display/demo models.


Maybe when you can see 8-10 SS DJ models sitting in a display case then one might dare to think its getting better but we are so far away of watches in any display case of 8 years ago it’s unrecognizable.

When I read the Rolex tea leaves they never go back to the way they were ever again regardless what the economy does. At best we may see times like a few months before the 2020 Covid bubble.

Thank you. I was going the write the same thing but you stated it perfectly.

I too don't understand why there is this belief that the "new factory" will make it rain Rolex upon the parched WIS masses?

I agree as well, why would Rolex go back to cases full of Rolexes?

If there is an economic slow down, I think Rolex and the AD network will double down on scarcity as that's a huge reason Rolex has been an inferno over the last 8yrs....

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by orangespicy

I think the last 4 years has been an outlier in terms of all assets and luxury items. It was NOT the norm, and there has to be some sort of mean reversion (or else we are living in a fundamentally changed world..).

Pre 2018, and for decades prior, buying a rolex was always that simple. Just walk into an AD and buy. That didn't make it any less special, it was always a grail/milestone/special purchase for people. So even with tons of availability back then, rolex held it's brand and prestige and it's spot as king in the watch world. I think it will continue to and these purchases should be democratized IMO.

The price tag alone is enough of a barrier to maintain its scarcity, no need to add even more hurdles by making them unavailable as well.

Unpopular opinion around here, but I am of the strong belief Rolex is not pleased with how things have been the last several years. That's why they are building more production capacity.

If they wanted to go more "upmarket" as some people think, they had a great opportunity the last couple of years. No need to open more factories, instead raise prices aggressively. They could easily raise the price of GMTs to $15k USD and demand would still be higher than supply, for example. Contrast this to what Richemont has been trying to do with their brands like JLC.

You can't just snap a finger and suddenly become a company that competes with AP or Patek, Rolex would literally have to rebuild their company from the ground up.

[orangespicy]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

Unpopular opinion around here, but I am of the strong belief Rolex is not pleased with how things have been the last several years. That's why they are building more production capacity.

If they wanted to go more "upmarket" as some people think, they had a great opportunity the last couple of years. No need to open more factories, instead raise prices aggressively. They could easily raise the price of GMTs to $15k USD and demand would still be higher than supply, for example. Contrast this to what Richemont has been trying to do with their brands like JLC.

You can't just snap a finger and suddenly become a company that competes with AP or Patek, Rolex would literally have to rebuild their company from the ground up.

Good point. I think you're right, they want to maintain the same place in the watch world that they always have. And it's completely reasonable to assume building up production capacity would take some years (new factories etc..). They have to do it the right way. Rushing something like that could have major implications on their pieces, especially with how many they put out. Having complications on a mass-scale would be absolutely catastrophic for them.

[Resto]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

This makes absolutely no sense and goes against Econ 101, Management 101, Supply Chain 101, etc.

Why in the world would they open new factories just to LIMIT supply? A ton of money goes into building new facilities and hiring new people, money that needs to be recouped, and yet they are going to... limit supply? How? By idling the very factories they just built?

The idea that Rolex limits supply is a popular misconception that keeps getting thrown around. And yet their production always goes up, now to an estimated 1.25M watches/year.

I would be willing to bet the state of affairs that has gone on since roughly the 2nd half of 2018 caught Rolex by surprise, it wasn't some engineered plan.

The idea they all of a sudden want to constrain supply... why? So they can be like a Patek? Their entire infrastructure, product line, brand ethos, brand placement, marketing, etc is designed to be a company that churns out watches at an industrial level. They can't even be a JLC, much less a Patek.

Despite opening new factories, demand will still exceed supply. One turn a valve and increase the "flow" to increase supply while still limiting it entirely. These factores will help decrease wait times, but will not eradicate them.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by orangespicy

Good point. I think you're right, they want to maintain the same place in the watch world that they always have. And it's completely reasonable to assume building up production capacity would take some years (new factories etc..). They have to do it the right way. Rushing something like that could have major implications on their pieces, especially with how many they put out. Having complications on a mass-scale would be absolutely catastrophic for them.

Yes, that's also why I think it's funny that when Rolexes started getting hard to get, people thought Rolex could just snap a finger and produce more of them, and if not it has to be a conspiracy to limit supply

Totally ignoring this was a massive demand issue that hit all luxury watches. During the most ridiculous times it wasn't a guarantee you could get a generic Seamaster by walking into Omega. The VC Overseas (non blue) was touching $40k in the secondary market, now it's basically a walk-in piece.

[Resto]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

This makes absolutely no sense and goes against Econ 101, Management 101, Supply Chain 101, etc.

Why in the world would they open new factories just to LIMIT supply? A ton of money goes into building new facilities and hiring new people, money that needs to be recouped, and yet they are going to... limit supply? How? By idling the very factories they just built?

The idea that Rolex limits supply is a popular misconception that keeps getting thrown around. And yet their production always goes up, now to an estimated 1.25M watches/year.

I would be willing to bet the state of affairs that has gone on since roughly the 2nd half of 2018 caught Rolex by surprise, it wasn't some engineered plan.

The idea they all of a sudden want to constrain supply... why? So they can be like a Patek? Their entire infrastructure, product line, brand ethos, brand placement, marketing, etc is designed to be a company that churns out watches at an industrial level. They can't even be a JLC, much less a Patek.

Despite opening new factories, demand will still exceed supply. One turn of a valve will increase the supply "flow" while still limiting supply entirely. It's all about the supply/demand ratio. These factories will help decrease wait times, but will not eradicate them.

[espanol]

The current state of Rolex is not solely due to sales practices, IMO. It's two parts; Rolex's strategy of going upmarket to cater toward the luxury segment (as opposed to 'tool') and yes, sales practices.

Objectively, Rolex makes shinier, more noticeable watches than they ever have. Consumer luxury segment is gobbling this up.

Rolex also has control of their own supply chain. Those that love the new, shinier product, want to show how 'special' they are to own a stainless Rolex. If they were readily available, part of the mystique would disappear.

Both product decisions and superior sales practices have led to this frenzy. Personally I'm partial to Rolex of old, but it's fun to watch people swoon over watches that are produced in the hundreds of thousands (even though millions want them).

[Jerrocop]

I don’t think the wait has made me feel it’s any more special. In fact it’s felt more, well, anticlimactic. I love the watch but the journey has been sour.

I totally agree that waiting for that first luxury watch / Rolex, and then finally getting it IS a big deal. But a large part of that is the years, savings, goal setting, someday I’m gonna get one of those, journey. Having to then wait once you’re ready isn’t a good part of that journey, especially to then have the pressure of AD games added on top of that. After that first one the wait is simply annoying.

I look forward to Rolex effectively flooding the market (in a calculated way) and having the hope that in a few months the reference I’m interested in is available and that I can plan for its arrival, relatively speaking.

I don’t care so much that the possible value of my new watch could be worth more than I paid as I walk out of the AD with it on my wrist. Hopefully those days will end soon. I’m okay that it may lose some value and maybe, maybe sometime down the road, after it’s been discontinued, and my eye catches another watch, I can sell or trade it for a certain value that may be more or less than I paid, but likely cover a good chunk of the cost for the next watch.

Bring it on Rolex, be the brand we admire. We’re all tired of watching untrained, unprofessional, scammers, that try to make us believe they care about us on YouTube. Let’s see something different this time from you Rolex.


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[mickyd329]

Personally, I see the Rolex watch market going back to 2018-2019 levels. Daytona's and certain sport models will still be hard to get, but most other lines can be had at a discount. This is probably going to be true for AP and PP as well. Other brands will be discounting to move inventory like in the past. Even though the demand and awareness of watches has grown significantly in the past 4 years, you can't avoid less discretionary spend during an economic downturn.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

Part of this is a result of the introduction of Rolex CPO and its diverting from the greys the dollars of the people who want to shop Rolex’s back catalog. And the fresh RSC service and two years of warranty only sweetens the appeal, just as Rolex strategized.

Is the Rolex CPO program diverting dollars from the greys?

Is the CPO program having an affect on the second hand market?

Or is the CPO program pushing up the prices of second hand watches?

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by Andad

Is the Rolex CPO program diverting dollars from the greys?

Is the CPO program having an affect on the second hand market?

Or is the CPO program pushing up the prices of second hand watches?

The OP made an observation that the grey market has slowed. While the CPO market is no doubt having some affect on the second hand market overall I don’t believe it’s solely driving this change.

In my observation the CPO program has created a hierarchy between pre-owned watches sold by greys and ADs because greys can’t compete with the RSC service and two-year Rolex warranty. This is reflected in CPO pricing.

The money buying CPO watches is coming from somewhere, it’s not new money, it’s money that would’ve been spent on watches elsewhere had CPO not been an option. Grey watches are still cheaper than CPO equivalents in my observation, at least the few I’ve compared. Are they more expensive than they used to be? I’ll leave that question for you.

[Oxfordian]

Will buying a Rolex be as special if there is stock on the shelves?

That depends on you, what is often forgotten is that the majority of Rolex watches are bought by people who have no interest in building a collection or reselling it, they actually just want a really nice watch or watches to celebrate an occasion.

For some just being able to walk into a store and buy a DJ or Submariner or GMT or whatever it is they want will be welcome, it won't make the watch any less special as they won't know about previous issues.

I still believe that some watches PM, BLRO and Daytona might have a bit of a waiting list but not what it used to be.

Owning a Rolex will still be special, unless its the chase that inspires you.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Oxfordian

Will buying a Rolex be as special if there is stock on the shelves?

That depends on you, what is often forgotten is that the majority of Rolex watches are bought by people who have no interest in building a collection or reselling it, they actually just want a really nice watch or watches to celebrate an occasion.

For some just being able to walk into a store and buy a DJ or Submariner or GMT or whatever it is they want will be welcome, it won't make the watch any less special as they won't know about previous issues.

I still believe that some watches PM, BLRO and Daytona might have a bit of a waiting list but not what it used to be.


Owning a Rolex will still be special, unless it’s the chase that inspires you.

Walk-in datejust now, yes. Walk-in GMT, Sub or Daytona, no unless that person just walked into a lottery ticket. Not as long of a wait, but still no normal walk-ins for Rolex SS Sports watches. Many PMs are easier to get.

[majidessa]

There are many aspects and many probabilities to consider, i think one should take into consideration that Rolex is very rich and in a much stonger financial position than it ever has been, the Rolex mania started in 2017 (prior to Covid) and peaked in 2021 until early 2022. The prices in 2024 have somewhat stabilized and avilablity of certain pieces have improved.

However, Rolex is a master in marketing tactics, the brand status has elevated and reached a point that require different strategy. This new strategy is mainly focused on improving the sales of precious metal in order to

1- Maintian the brand image in the upper luxury market and make it more exclusive
2- Increase profit

While majority of stainless models will be limited and not easy to get to ensure that the market is not flooded and brand status is not devalued while keeping customers happy. Rolex is now more interested in selling to repetitive clients or ones that are looking to own more than one piece rather than a client who only wants one piece.

Production is controlled even with the new manufacturing faciltities and will always be so (at least this is the plan), models like datejusts might be avilable again in few quatinities , but the ADs will have to follow Rolex strategy. Nowadays, all exhibition pieces that are displayed are actually pieces that are for sale, it is the AD/ Rolex who decides on how / when to sell.

Making long story short, Rolex will not shoot it self in the foot

[Hollie_Rollie]

Depends on the hype. As long as the hype is there SS Rolex will be hard to get.

On a lighter note, PM pieces are plummeting


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[Oxfordian]

Originally Posted by JRell

Walk-in datejust now, yes. Walk-in GMT, Sub or Daytona, no unless that person just walked into a lottery ticket. Not as long of a wait, but still no normal walk-ins for Rolex SS Sports watches. Many PMs are easier to get.

The question posed was would a Rolex be any less special if it was more readily available from the Rolex store, my answer is no for many it will be the same, just a watch they have aspired to own that they can pick up fairly easily.

I am fully aware that popular stuff is still unobtainable, I know that I’m waiting.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by Oxfordian

The question posed was would a Rolex be any less special if it was more readily available from the Rolex store, my answer is no for many it will be the same, just a watch they have aspired to own that they can pick up fairly easily.

I am fully aware that popular stuff is still unobtainable, I know that I’m waiting.

Understood. I liked the ceramic bezels before the hype, so for me I will still want the ones I want. For others that buy the hype or maybe even to flip, they will go away and the better for us.