Rolex Speculating for the Distant Future...

[esscaster]

Hi All, as an investor by trade I have found a bit of fun the past year researching Rolex's history and the values of certain models. In the past year or so have purchased a few models I think will be coveted and valuable in maybe 40 years time. Let me know if I'm missing any models that fit my methodology below.

General methodology is looking for historically significant models that were never that popular and had genuinely short production runs, or models currently in production but not popular either because they are different or inaccessible due to rarity or price. I'm intentionally avoiding hot models right now like the Daytona-C and Batman because in these economically depressed times for the Swiss watch industry I have no reason to believe they will stop production of these models anytime soon. I see them being quite common in the future. Also avoiding the vintage market just because the price of entry is too high for me at the moment and I personally believe it's a bubble set to burst.

I'm sorry I don't have pics as most of these are in a safe very far away from me at the moment, but yeah here goes, what I have at the moment.

1. Submariner 168000 - These rare transitional models made between the 16800 and 16610 for less than a year supposedly have no tell tale signs of being any different from a 16610 besides the serial number in between the lugs. The rarest reference of an icon, but with no visual distinctions of this being any different from any other 16610 I'm not sure how coveted they will be in the future, but for $4,500 bucks why not see what happens?

2. Milgauss Z-Blue - Weird little watch, very playful from Rolex. Still in production but a bit of an oddball. I think it'll be coveted one day just because it is very playful and almost childish of Rolex to release a model that is so zany with its two-tone lume, green crystal, orange accents, and blue dial. I'm not super sure about the rarity or collectibility of this, but I found one at a very attractive price, so I can see myself only going up on this.

3. Yachtmaster 116622 SS/Platinum Dial - The original 16622 Platinum dial I remember being a hot watch back in the day, but the 6-digit iteration of it seemed to enter and exit the catalog without too much notice. Whether or not the Yachtmaster will be exciting for collectors in the future I'm not sure, but then again there were times when Daytonas couldn't be given away, so who knows... But given the fact this was the face for the modern-day Yachtmaster, but in rare 6-digit form, I'm thinking this will be coveted one day, but if not, I like wearing it from time to time. Always loved this watch!

4. GMTII-c Pepsi 116719BLRO - Hoping and praying that Rolex doesn't release a steel version of this, at least not in the modern Supercase design. A modern-day reincarnation of the original GMT in rarefied precious metal released in an economically depressed time for the Swiss watch industry, I think this will be a Holy Grail watch down the line if this is the only Pepsi made in these times. Even at the 20% off list I got mine at, it is still a serious chunk of change, so that alone I think makes it inaccessible to most, and rare as a result.

5. Datejust Turn-o-graph 116234 - I don't think these will be particularly valuable because of their size at 36mm, but these little guys are my daily go to's and I just like them. They were a rare variation of the very un-rare Datejust. It's red accents (seconds hand, date wheel, and "Turn-o-Graph" script) I think will make them coveted in the future, but for right now I plan on getting a few more variations of these as I see them on the used market quite cheap, even cheaper than many other "normal" Datejusts of similar model year.

These are in the pipeline to get in the near future:

1. Sea-Dweller 4k - the only 40mm 6-digit iteration of a Rolex classic. I think Rolex may go back to a smaller case, but with its genuinely short production run I can see it become quite coveted in the future. Am gambling there will be a slight dip in used prices when the red SD starts coming out. Will observe prices, but will definitely get one soon:)

2. Platinum Day-Date II Glacier Dial - Not just a short lived model, but a short-lived entire model line, would like to get the Glacier-dialed Roman numeral version as I believe this was the icon of this model line. The only thing holding me back at the moment however is the price. Want to wait for prices of these to go down a bit more.

On the Fence:

1. Zenith Daytonas - I understand the limitations of Zenith's movement manufacturing makes these uncommon compared to pre-Ceramic Daytonas today, but I'm still not convinced it'll add collector value in the future. Prices are attractive now, but will want to see how prices for these fluctuate in the future. I would however get a meteorite dial if I were to get one of these.

2. Deepsea D-Blue - Many many years from now I think the Deepseas, Yachtmaster IIs, etc. will be seen as monstrosities Rolex made to compete with the likes of AP ROO's and Hublots. I want to think the D-Blue may be the Comex Sub of the future, but the history and development of this model seems to be a bit of a marketing ploy than a genuine partnership. So I'm not totally sure if this will be a future Comex or a future Domino's Pizza Datejust. We'll see...

But yeah I certainly enjoy my Rolexes but wondering if y'all bought any with plans on keeping for decades to come? Thanks!

[m j b]

I'm not sure I'll be here in 40 years, and I wouldn't buy any of these watches as an investment. Sure, you may do OK with them, but if you plan to wear them (as I understand it) then you should just buy to enjoy and not worry about their long-term value. That can only be maximized by not wearing them, and where's the fun in that?

Plastics. The future is in plastics.

[Thatguy]

I don't see it as a good investment. There are many people keeping stickered watches in the safe nowadays. The reason there are many vintage worth big money is because back when they were new most people wore the heck out of them and Rolex made fewer of them. It's not the same now.


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[pearson1995]

People on this forum tend to say watches shouldn't be seen as investment, I say thats ridiculous. I personally have made a lot of money out of watches in the short term, and I have no doubt long term investments have potential. Having said that, I'm sure there are way to make more money than the % gains on a rolex.

This is my opinion of your choices:

1) potentially, I don't personally know much about the model so won't comment
2) Its unpopular right now, and if rolex cease production I can see this piece having good investment potential. Can be picked up at a good price right now too!
3) Not convinced.
4) Not one of the best looking GMT's, and the cost etc I actually see as a downside. I feel most investment rolex in terms of history and future are not PM
5) potentially, again don't know much about them.

6) Yes yes yes, imo will no doubt go up. so many reasons for this
7) No, not the nicest of the DD and again PM so for me a no for investment

8) Not convinced
9) Don't think so

[pearson1995]

For me these are the ones to invest in:

SD4K
BLNR
Milgaus blue

[rollee1]

In the future Rolex watches will aim at zero accuracy.
+/-0
This I can bet money on.

[teo]

In my opinion if u want to buy potential watches buy milgauss non green crystal version, sea dweller ceramic, steel zenith daytona, LV sub kermit.