I like this guy’s theory for the shortage of SS

[Craigdwh]

Lol why is it so hard to simply face the reality?

Demand is at all time highs AND Asian markets dwarf the NA market.

It’s really quite simple.

There is no supply reduction.


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[rtalk]

Rolex is trying to be the new Supreme. They want to increase the brand value by being more exclusive.

[watchmavan]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

The actual shortage is clean ADs. Rolex has lost control of their ADs.

+ another


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[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by lenfried29

My AD said: why should I sell you a Daytona C for 12K if it's selling for 21K. Enough said

Is an AD allowed to sell any Rolex over retail?

Further and maybe the further question ... can any AD purchase all of the SS Daytona’s (Pepsi, LVc, BLNR, etc) watches themselves for $12k (before they hit shelves) and then just turn around and sell them in the market at $21k?


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[peterpl]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

Is an AD allowed to sell any Rolex over retail?
Further and maybe the further question ... can any AD purchase all of the SS Daytona’s (Pepsi, LVc, BLNR, etc) watches themselves for $12k (before they hit shelves) and then just turn around and sell them in the market at $21k?
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Nothing stopping ADs from selling these out the backdoor. Why sell to your average joe blow for $12k?

Sell out the backdoor for $15k to a gray, make money on top of MSRP, then the gray will sell for $20k and make money on top of what he paid.

Then the sucker at the end (us guys) just get ripped.

Money talks bullshit walks. Honestly if I had no interest in watches for myself and I could make money this easily I would do EXACTLY the same thing. Unless Rolex addresses how the ADs and Grays are working together to hyperinflate the market and cause a bubble well its going to end badly for many.

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Nothing stopping ADs from selling these out the backdoor. Why sell to your average joe blow for $12k?

Sell out the backdoor for $15k to a gray, make money on top of MSRP, then the gray will sell for $20k and make money on top of what he paid.

Then the sucker at the end (us guys) just get ripped.

Money talks bullshit walks. Honestly if I had no interest in watches for myself and I could make money this easily I would do EXACTLY the same thing. Unless Rolex addresses how the ADs and Grays are working together to hyperinflate the market and cause a bubble well its going to end badly for many.

Under what name does the AD issue the warranty card? How can the accounting work - the manager of the AD is in on this or just doesn’t catch the same name on most of the receipts? The store can only show MSRP as coming in for the watch or lose their license and doesn’t Rolex look to the names of buyers to see grays buying most? Then, do the grays pay cash and sales person takes $3k off the top and just enters $12k in the official accounting records?


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[SeaAndSky]

And so many on here defend the grays and their ugly greed. I seriously smile and chuckle every time I read about some member on here talking about his/her enjoyable experience buying from whichever gray while being fleeced out of thousands of dollars. Cracks me up every time.

[lenfried29]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

Is an AD allowed to sell any Rolex over retail?

Further and maybe the further question ... can any AD purchase all of the SS Daytona’s (Pepsi, LVc, BLNR, etc) watches themselves for $12k (before they hit shelves) and then just turn around and sell them in the market at $21k?


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I'm on the list at my AD for Daytona C. I purchase all my watches and jewelry for my wife at this AD. Last time I had a conversation with him about me getting Daytona. So, he said that I have to buy more jewelry from him to be considered. That being said, it's not a news that ADs are selling hot watches to Gray Dealers with other items that are not moving so well. People like me don't stand a chance to get the watch like Daytona without spending a lot of cash.
No offence, but you asking a rhetorical questions

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by SS Oyster

Under what name does the AD issue the warranty card? How can the accounting work - the manager of the AD is in on this or just doesn’t catch the same name on most of the receipts? The store can only show MSRP as coming in for the watch or lose their license and doesn’t Rolex look to the names of buyers to see grays buying most? Then, do the grays pay cash and sales person takes $3k off the top and just enters $12k in the official accounting records?

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What do you mean? Most my warranty cards came blank. They dont need a name on the card at all. It could be Joe Blow or Blinky Bill for anyone cares.

Rolex don't care about names on cards and to put it through the ADs books as a normal sale is like the simplest thing to do. Just say it sold for $12k and backdoor it to a Gray dealer at $15-16k and pocket the difference. Whats hard about it?

Its an extra $5k in your hand doing zilch. Dont care who you are you aint going to throw away $5k especially if you can make it in 2 mins doing nothing

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by lenfried29

So, he said that I have to buy more jewelry from him to be considered.

Perfect example. Why does he say that? Because he can make a motsa selling this watch to Gray dealers and for you to be deserving he needs to be able to make the same or equivalent amount from you. + all the potential sales the gray dealer takes on not so hot models.

Its very apparent the bubble is artificially created. Its not a supply issue when there are 1000s upon 1000s of these models available. Its a bubble.

Its a supply issue when NOTHING is available at ADs or Grays. What we are in now is NOTHING is available at ADs but EVERYTHING is available at grays.

Quite simple actually. Hyper inflated purposely created bubble.

[MILGAUSS88]

In 30 years the only time I saw a SS Daytona at a Rolex AD, was right before Rolex switched from the Zenith to there in house movements. And I saw 4 simultaneously at that time.
Which would indicate the exact opposite of your hypothesis.

[DoctorA]

Over the history of its existence Rolex upgraded movements and never did this shortage! So I’m not sure I buy the current shortage is related to upgrading movements!
And if that’s truly the case we would find cases filled with the new upgraded Pepsi!

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

“The reason why Rolex sports stainless steel supply is so low is because Rolex is changing their movement from the ones with power reserve of 48 hours to ones with 70 hours. If they kept the normal supply and make a switch in the near future, there will be huge unsold inventories of watches with 48 hours power reserve. Yes their action is hurting the brand image and beneficiaries might be Omega, Panerai, etc”

I think it is complete nonsense. To me the difference between a 48 and 70 hour power reserve is trivial. If someone asked me if I wanted to increase the power reserve of my watch from 48 to 70 hours and the price for this would be $50, then I would politely decline. Having more power reserve may also have a downside. It may impact reliability in the long run.

The current Rolex situation is not helping Omega and Panerai, etc. It is just making those watches look more ordinary and it prompts people to ask questions when those manufacturers are asking Rolex prices for watches that are clearly inferior to Rolex.

The Rolex shortage is occurring because:

1. Rolex is not increasing production much.

2. Global demand for certain models within the Rolex range has increased considerably.

It is not any more complicated than that, there is no evil plan behind the scenes.

[toolr]

I don't care about the new movement or the increased power reserve. 48 hours is plenty and the current movement has proven itself accurate and reliable over years of use.

[Quamby]

Calm down fellas, the global economy is going south, FAST!!!

Soon the shortage will be no more. It might not become a deluge, but I'm sure hot models will become more easily available.

Just sit tight ;)

[ragingcao]

Originally Posted by peterpl

What do you mean? Most my warranty cards came blank. They dont need a name on the card at all. It could be Joe Blow or Blinky Bill for anyone cares.

Rolex don't care about names on cards and to put it through the ADs books as a normal sale is like the simplest thing to do. Just say it sold for $12k and backdoor it to a Gray dealer at $15-16k and pocket the difference. Whats hard about it?

Its an extra $5k in your hand doing zilch. Dont care who you are you aint going to throw away $5k especially if you can make it in 2 mins doing nothing

BING BING BING BINGO!
Hell, I'll even throw in the coffin shipping box...

[yhzdude]

Originally Posted by lenfried29

you missing the point here.

sorry but you must be the only person thinking, there are no shortage.
I must be missing the point, so please expand.

[SackLVG]

Originally Posted by Quamby

Calm down fellas, the global economy is going south, FAST!!!

Soon the shortage will be no more. It might not become a deluge, but I'm sure hot models will become more easily available.

Just sit tight ;)

lol and they still will be going to greys out the backdoor. don't kid yourself, they will still have capital and pull

[glamorama]

We are going to see a lot more availability now as stock market comes tumbling down and discover it was all just global demand driven, especially China.

[glamorama]

Originally Posted by Craigdwh

Lol why is it so hard to simply face the reality?

Demand is at all time highs AND Asian markets dwarf the NA market.

It’s really quite simple.

There is no supply reduction.


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Well you said it...

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by yhzdude

sorry but you must be the only person thinking, there are no shortage.
I must be missing the point, so please expand.

I expanded it for him. Did you read that? And no, he is far from the only person saying there is no shortage. It is one of the main lines of argument whenever this topic comes up.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

“The reason why Rolex sports stainless steel supply is so low is because Rolex is changing their movement from the ones with power reserve of 48 hours to ones with 70 hours. If they kept the normal supply and make a switch in the near future, there will be huge unsold inventories of watches with 48 hours power reserve. Yes their action is hurting the brand image and beneficiaries might be Omega, Panerai, etc”

A theory is just that a theory IMHO it sound like bullsh#te, today all the movements are made on the Aegler side of the RWC group they took control around 2004, movements like say the cal 3135 made in there thousands, many hundreds down the COSC being tested.Hundreds returning passed and failed then stored in there thousands till matched to a case.At the Swiss COSC they only tests movements at their barest functional level. All movements are machine wound hundreds at a time by the winding stem,all automatic watches have there winding rotors removed. Because the machine that winds them that fast it would damage the highly geared automatic winding mechanism.Even dial and hands are removed special ones are fitted at COSC test centre.Movements are checked every 24 hours by electronic camera linked to central computer.Rolex has there own special machine to test its vast quantities of movements. These are loaded into magazines like bullets. The machine extracts the movement, reads it, winds it and returns it to the magazine.And some of you guys worry about winding your watch manually.Its possible they could have a problem at the Swiss COSC testing movements for certification .

Yes the new 32 series are different to the 31 series but a lot of parts will interchange it's exactly the same size as the 31 movment.Today like most all high volume watch brands production is highly machine robotised.Once you have the tooling set for any modified movement you can churn them out much like the 15,31 series did.So cannot see why there would be any difference to production no matter the movement that's in the case.Myself extra powereserve is far down the list of importance in any watch, as those very nice people from Rolex on one side of the watch.They have put a round thing that you simple pull out and wind forward, guess what its called a winding crown.

[77T]

If it was simply the changeover to new 32 movement then the supply problem would cut across all models using them.

Demand being higher for one model than its production rate (Supply) is what yields backlog in meeting customers expectations. The retail side (Distribution) has another impact if the imbalance isn’t addressed by proportional adjustment of shipments to different markets like EMEA, Americas & ROW.


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[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

“The reason why Rolex sports stainless steel supply is so low is because Rolex is changing their movement from the ones with power reserve of 48 hours to ones with 70 hours. If they kept the normal supply and make a switch in the near future, there will be huge unsold inventories of watches with 48 hours power reserve. Yes their action is hurting the brand image and beneficiaries might be Omega, Panerai, etc”

Rolex isnt in a hurry to do anything. When they decide to launch different movements they will and they will be prepared. This whole idea that mass amounts of hot watches will sit on AD shelves because of a movement that 99.9% of buyers don't care about is ridiculous

PR is nice but i would have bought my BLRO without it as it was in no way a factor in the purchase decision.

Supply isnt low, demand is high making the same amount of watches look more scarce.

[Silvio_86]

The shortage is fake. Watches are moving directly from ADs to grey dealers. You can see it directly shopping around your cities... ADs with empty windows, greys full with pieces with a large premium....

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Silvio_86

The shortage is fake. Watches are moving directly from ADs to grey dealers. You can see it directly shopping around your cities... ADs with empty windows, greys full with pieces with a large premium....

if i unloaded some of my "hot" watches they would be sold to a secondary dealer as im not messing with doing it myself. They you see them there and assume it came directly from an AD. It didn't, it came from me who bought it at an AD.

People are vastly underestimating the number of individual flippers who buy at an AD and then sell to a secondary dealer. The dealer is just a middle man in many cases not the source.

[nikhileshmehta]

Hi everyone.
I am a Rolex enthusiast. And have a chance to buy this beautiful watch. I think it's a 1959 datejust. And it has got butterfly rotor. I have heard they are rare and valuable. The source from which I am getting it is legit. So I am sure it's genuine. Please suggest me approximate price at which this is a good buy.
Thank you in advance.

[marcotagudelo]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

When we talk about shortage, we mean an "absolute" shortage, where there is a shortage of supply in the entire market, regardless of who's selling it. We're not talking about a "preferential" shortage, where the seller you want to buy from (i.e., an AD) doesn't have adequate stock. If there's ample supply at gray sellers, then there isn't a real shortage of stock coming out of Rolex's distribution. It's just ending up at different place. If it's coming from ADs selling out the back door, then there really is no shortage; it's just the AD likes the gray's custom more than yours.

This is just it
Hype on the internet marks up the prices.
Greys feed the hype beast at a premium
We give in
Cycle repeats

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by nikhileshmehta

Hi everyone.
I am a Rolex enthusiast. And have a chance to buy this beautiful watch. I think it's a 1959 datejust. And it has got butterfly rotor. I have heard they are rare and valuable. The source from which I am getting it is legit. So I am sure it's genuine. Please suggest me approximate price at which this is a good buy.
Thank you in advance.

A. we don't do that
B. it doesnt go in the middle of a thread about something else

[Vanmarsenille]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

The actual shortage is clean ADs. Rolex has lost control of their ADs.

This^^^.