Why does Lange's 2nd market price is so weak?!!

[vman]

Discounts on Lange are narrowing, btw. I called a few dealers recently and I could not get the usually mentioned 20-25% off. Boutiques won't discount at all and ADs will give some but not what it is used to be.

Lange is fantastic in terms of quality though and I don't see prices or the brand going downhill any time soon. If anything, the brand is has a tall ceiling.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by vman

Discounts on Lange are narrowing, btw. I called a few dealers recently and I could not get the usually mentioned 20-25% off. Boutiques won't discount at all and ADs will give some but not what it is used to be.

Lange is fantastic in terms of quality though and I don't see prices or the brand going downhill any time soon. If anything, the brand is has a tall ceiling.

Agree with this

[dchang81]

I mean most higher end brands are benefiting from watch mania. Used lange prices have gotten fairly strong in my opinion. Good for them not me as I don't have one yet

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by dchang81

I mean most higher end brands are benefiting from watch mania. Used lange prices have gotten fairly strong in my opinion. Good for them not me as I don't have one yet

I always find it interesting watching a TM video that supposedly the finishing on FPJ’s is not up to the standard of Lange.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I always find it interesting watching a TM video that supposedly the finishing on FPJ’s is not up to the standard of Lange.

If you haven't already read the Lange website about the various finishing. I had to go back with a 10x loupe to spot it all.

[CFR]

Originally Posted by solowarrior

Everyone knows their quality comparable to PP, or even better. Their annual production is much less than PP, so I assume there should be a very high demand, which would usually make the better resale value. I don't understand what is going on there. Bad management or marketing?

To date, Lange has never tried to become an instantly recognizable brand like Patek or Rolex. I've heard the CEO talk about the under-the-radar nature of the brand during presentations to business school students, and it's quite interesting. I'd say their marketing is more deliberate than bad/ineffective. And to be clear, I'm not defending the brand like a dutiful fanboy. They've made quite a few marketing mistakes in the past that have cost them sales.

[One of my favorite long-term marketing blunders involved the Langematik Perpetual Calendar. The watch has a single button that advances all calendar functions by 1 day with each push. It's genius! When you first get the watch, you have to set each calendar function separately, but you never have to do that again if you don't wear the watch for a while because of that multi-function corrector button. But throughout the 18ish-year run of this model, Lange SAs weren't trained to market/highlight this feature when showing the watch to potential clients. As a result, even many collectors and WISs don't know about this incredibly convenient feature, and they think the button only changes the date like it does on the less complicated "big date" models.]

Originally Posted by fullofboats

I think the pre-owned discount is narrowing. 12 months ago a 403 pt datograph could be bought for $40k. Today no one will sell for less than $50k...

I didn't realize this until I just checked, after you pointed it out. You're right! For over 10 years, you could get a preowned PT Datograph (often with a deployant, if you got lucky), full set, for less than $45K USD. We'll see if those days return.

I also noticed that a well-known, reputable preowned dealer is is asking $69,000 USD for a Lange 1 101.001 (yellow gold/champagne dial) because it is an early model with a solid caseback. Up until now, these models sold at a discount to those with the usual transparent caseback (101.021) because everyone wants to see the movement and not the solid caseback. The fact that it was "early" didn't command a premium. and 1-2 years ago a preowned 101.001 was more like a $19,000 watch than a $69,000 watch. Of course, it's not yet sold and it may not sell for anywhere near $69K, but the high asking price from a seller who knows the market is notable.

[In addition, I was VERY amused to see that a yellow gold/black dial "Yellowjacket" Datograph 403.041 fetched over $193,000 USD at the Phillips auction on November 8th!]

Originally Posted by EEpro

If you haven't already read the Lange website about the various finishing. I had to go back with a 10x loupe to spot it all.

I am curious to know if FPJ has improved his finishing in recent years. The finishing on many of his older movements was pretty unremarkable. Most of them were pretty enough at first glance but not anywhere near as well finished as Lange movements. I have a bit of a negative bias because I have an FPJ with an especially dull movement that was always disappointing compared to how nice the dial is. I actually wish it had a solid caseback!

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by CFR

I also noticed that a well-known, reputable preowned dealer is is asking $69,000 USD for a Lange 1 101.001 (yellow gold/champagne dial) because it is an early model with a solid caseback. Up until now, these models sold at a discount to those with the usual transparent caseback (101.021) because everyone wants to see the movement and not the solid caseback. The fact that it was "early" didn't command a premium. and 1-2 years ago a preowned 101.001 was more like a $19,000 watch than a $69,000 watch. Of course, it's not yet sold and it may not sell for anywhere near $69K, but the high asking price from a seller who knows the market is notable.

[In addition, I was VERY amused to see that a yellow gold/black dial "Yellowjacket" Datograph 403.041 fetched over $193,000 USD at the Phillips auction on November 8th!]

Early pieces from the genesis of Lange are starting to generate collector interest, there is always a new limited edition or a new special model from all brands, but there are only a few pieces from the 1994 launch collection introduced to the world by Walter Lange himself and the great Gunter Blumlein.

[scrappy]

Originally Posted by CFR

I didn't realize this until I just checked, after you pointed it out. You're right! For over 10 years, you could get a preowned PT Datograph (often with a deployant, if you got lucky), full set, for less than $45K USD. We'll see if those days return.

How rare is a PT Dato Up/Down on deployant?I purchased mine new several years ago in that configuration but have since realized how uncommon the deployant clasp is.

[dchang81]

I do remember FPJ's thing before was movement engineering, not as much fine finishing. Particularly remember QC issues and rough looking movements but seems like that's not the case now.

[WatchEater666]

Like the posters above said, I think people are finally clueing in to what a ridiculously good deal used Lange is. You cant really find more bang for buck than a used Datograph.

[scrappy]

No need to be sorry, I greatly appreciate the thorough response. I purchased it in North America 3-4 years ago so it lines up.

[fullofboats]

I was just quoted hk23,000 for a wg deployant. I could also trade in the wg pin buckle for hk9,000 and pay the difference.


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[EEpro]

Originally Posted by fullofboats

I was just quoted hk23,000 for a wg deployant. I could also trade in the wg pin buckle for hk9,000 and pay the difference.


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Not too bad. $3,200 USD here and require a new strap also.

[CFR]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Not too bad. $3,200 USD here and require a new strap also.

Just curious why new strap is required. Is it because the original strap's length didn't put the deployant in the correct place on your wrist?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by CFR

Just curious why new strap is required. Is it because the original strap's length didn't put the deployant in the correct place on your wrist?

Looking at the design the standard pin buckle strap can surely be used but AD insists it requires a shorter 12 o'clock side.

I'd love to hear from someone who has used the standard strap.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Looking at the design the standard pin buckle strap can surely be used but AD insists it requires a shorter 12 o'clock side.

I'd love to hear from someone who has used the standard strap.

I’m surprised your AD is telling you to get a shorter strap, my understanding is Lange doesn’t have a different recommendation for a deployant. I have mine on standard straps although I have also used a Patek deployant length strap on my Lange’s which is shorter - not noticed a significant difference in how they wear.

[The GMT Master]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Looking at the design the standard pin buckle strap can surely be used but AD insists it requires a shorter 12 o'clock side.

I'd love to hear from someone who has used the standard strap.

Definitely not necessary, the deployant is designed for the standard straps, Lange don't sell a specific strap for deployants.

Chris

[subtona]

Opportunity

[illiguy]

In five years, Lange will be where relative to peers like PP on the secondary?

I doubt their finishing, durability, and overall haute horology chops will change. Not the German way.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by illiguy

In five years, Lange will be where relative to peers like PP on the secondary?

As long as this bubble stays artificially inflated, that is easily possible imho.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by illiguy

In five years, Lange will be where relative to peers like PP on the secondary?

I doubt their finishing, durability, and overall haute horology chops will change. Not the German way.

Exactly where it is now. Don't secondary market Langes and Pateks sell for similar discounts to retail with the exception of sport models? And, based on the resale market for the Odysseus in SS, Lange can compete there, too.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Exactly where it is now. Don't secondary market Langes and Pateks sell for similar discounts to retail with the exception of sport models? And, based on the resale market for the Odysseus in SS, Lange can compete there, too.

I agree. Though part of me thinks that ALS will gain further momentum a la FP Journe due to overt or implicit “influence” by the WatchBox / Govberg-types of the world.

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by illiguy

I agree. Though part of me thinks that ALS will gain further momentum a la FP Journe due to overt or implicit “influence” by the WatchBox / Govberg-types of the world.

It's going to a be a little more difficult for Govberg/Watchbox to corner the Lange market compared to the FP Journe given the size of the 2. It's much easier for Govberg/Watchbox to corner the market of another small independent brand and hype the crap out of them on a youtube channel.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by texasmade

It's going to a be a little more difficult for Govberg/Watchbox to corner the Lange market compared to the FP Journe given the size of the 2. It's much easier for Govberg/Watchbox to corner the market of another small independent brand and hype the crap out of them on a youtube channel.

Perhaps. FPJ makes approximately 800 watches per year. ALS makes approximately 5,000 watches per year. Still think the numbers are small enough where one large player can effectively “corner” the market.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by texasmade

It's going to a be a little more difficult for Govberg/Watchbox to corner the Lange market compared to the FP Journe given the size of the 2. It's much easier for Govberg/Watchbox to corner the market of another small independent brand and hype the crap out of them on a youtube channel.

I’m ready for them to talk Moser up

[fullofboats]

I think this talk of WB or any other grey "cornering" the market is a simplistic narrative that doesn't hold water upon analysis.

Whether it's ALS or FPJ, it'd cost any single player tens (probably over a hundred) million dollars to effectively corner the market. You need to have a significant majority of the float to corner anything. Having a dozen FPJ or ALS in your vault won't move the market. I don't know who owns WB, but unless it's some billionaire I find this idea highly unlikely.

The simple explanation is just that we're in a watch frenzy. Between equity markets at all time highs, ppl making 10x their Tesla stock, and all the money printing, it's not hard to imagine that we have thousands or tens of thousands of new, high-end watch buyers pushing prices higher across all brands.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by fullofboats

I think this talk of WB or any other grey "cornering" the market is a simplistic narrative that doesn't hold water upon analysis.

Whether it's ALS or FPJ, it'd cost any single player tens (probably over a hundred) million dollars to effectively corner the market. You need to have a significant majority of the float to corner anything. Having a dozen FPJ or ALS in your vault won't move the market. I don't know who owns WB, but unless it's some billionaire I find this idea highly unlikely.

The simple explanation is just that we're in a watch frenzy. Between equity markets at all time highs, ppl making 10x their Tesla stock, and all the money printing, it's not hard to imagine that we have thousands or tens of thousands of new, high-end watch buyers pushing prices higher across all brands.

I see your point, but do not fully agree. I would not be surprised if WB/Govberg were the largest holders at any one time of FPJ and ALS pieces. In fact, I think Mike Manjos even spoke to the same about one or both brands. “Cornering” the market does not mean owning every single piece. That is clearly not realistic/possible. I put air quote around “cornering” because what I do think WB/Govberg have weight to do is own, as just mentioned, the greatest single amount of ALS pieces at any one time, and, moreover, use their marketing prowess, coupled with a hot luxury watch market to help solidify secondary market pricing. If you independently add ALS Boutique initiatives to lessen or remove discounting, then I see a playbook not too dissimilar to FPJ.

Regardless of why we’ve gotten here - macro or micro factors - ALS auction prices are also stronger than ever before, especially special Lange 1s (e.g., stainless steel, honey gold), Datos and Zeitworks. That will only help the overall catalog across the board.

[fullofboats]

Originally Posted by illiguy

I see your point, but do not fully agree. I would not be surprised if WB/Govberg were the largest holders at any one time of FPJ and ALS pieces. In fact, I think Mike Manjos even spoke to the same about one or both brands. “Cornering” the market does not mean owning every single piece. That is clearly not realistic/possible. I put air quote around “cornering” because what I do think WB/Govberg have weight to do is own, as just mentioned, the greatest single amount of ALS pieces at any one time, and, moreover, use their marketing prowess, coupled with a hot luxury watch market to help solidify secondary market pricing. If you independently add ALS Boutique initiatives to lessen or remove discounting, then I see a playbook not too dissimilar to FPJ.

Regardless of why we’ve gotten here - macro or micro factors - ALS auction prices are also stronger than ever before, especially special Lange 1s (e.g., stainless steel, honey gold), Datos and Zeitworks. That will only help the overall catalog across the board.

Ok, sure. We don't mean the same thing by cornering. I'm thinking in a financial sense where one player is able to set the price irrespective of the rest of the market. But if we're talking about WB and others hyping up FPJ and ALS, then I fully agree.

[chiscott_29]

I may have used the word “cornering” and that’s probably a bit harsh. As illiguy said, it doesn’t take a huge investment at all to establish price control for most watches. In fact, I can see how this is easily done for FPJ and ALS.

I don’t think we can debate at all that the strategy worked for FPJ. I certainly wasn’t recognizing it at the time, but if you go back you can see WatchBox was pitching FPJ years ago. All that you need to do is buy a few models and control the inventory that’s available in the secondary market. Unless we’re talking about the Hulk, Pepsi, or Batman...there are rarely hundreds of models offered at any given point in time.

If you can establish a level of influence in what is available for a particular brand/model, in a rather short period of time it’s possible for you to do what’s happening now with FPJ. Just look at any Souverain model. They were not too long ago selling at $25k...then $28k, then $32k, then $35k, etc. etc. Yes, of course you need a solid market for this to take place, but I can understand why WatchBox was able to convince themselves that this strategy was a winner.


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