So why are people really getting “the call” now?

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Covid wasn’t the real world, there was easy money everywhere and everyone had lots of time on their hands. While the current US economy looks healthy on paper there is still reticence for large discretionary purchases due to generalized uncertainty; in my business sales slides predictably as election noise amplifies and this election season is on track to be the loudest yet. The backlog of demand for Rolex has thinned somewhat for these and other reasons but it still exists. The most popular models are still not in display cases in my neighborhood.

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by amh

Haven't had a "call" for a SS Sports Rolex in about 6 years. (PM or TT, yes)

The drought will be over when a random Joe Blow can walk into an AD and buy a Sub the same day.

That is an insanely long time, are you in Dallas?


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[Nads786]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

Covid wasn’t the real world, there was easy money everywhere and everyone had lots of time on their hands. While the current US economy looks healthy on paper there is still reticence for large discretionary purchases due to generalized uncertainty; in my business sales slides predictably as election noise amplifies and this election season is on track to be the loudest yet. The backlog of demand for Rolex has thinned somewhat for these and other reasons but it still exists. The most popular models are still not in display cases in my neighborhood.

JP Morgan discussed household savings rates on their Q1 earnings call and expects those pandemic savings to unwind to pre-pandemic levels by the start of 2024.

I agree Covid was a mirage of hyper growth and zero interest rates. It made companies way too bullish and over hire.

The cost of capital has risen dramatically since.

I’m interested in understanding the Rolex buyer - is it the average highly paid executive ($250K to $500K) tied to the business cycle or the truly rich where recessions and interest rates have zero affect?

My cousin in Houston is your typically Rolex status purchaser and nothing has effected her financially in the last 25 years.


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[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

Demand declined due to slowing economy.
Hype moved onto something else.
So prices came down.
Grays were largely caught with big inventory levels that were declining in price rather than continuing to move up.
So they aren't looking to buy much inventory.
And what they buy now doesn't sell so quickly so the spread they need to purchase watches has gone up, while selling prices have gone down.
So that drives gray purchase prices even lower.
So now most Rolex don't really have the easy money flip that they used to.
So people who were buying to flip, or even buying because they thought they wanted to own the watch are reassessing.
So many "on the list" now have other priorities when AD calls, and they pass.
Thus, more calls further down the list.

Good summary

[aboutadog]

Originally Posted by Little machines

Lets remember individuals that have 25,000 to 100,000 plus on a watch for the sake of owning a
hyped watch are thinking twice about leaving money in bank at 5 percent and waiting out the uncertainty in this economy .

This makes a lot of sense.

[mmmk604]

Doesn't apply to Canada. My wife's been waiting for a TT DJ. Contacted all 4 ADs near me and it doesn't look like any of them have even seen one come in.

I've been on the "list" for a white dial Daytona...it's as rare as seeing a real life unicorn.

[huncho]

more people aren't getting calls for pepsis/BLNRs/daytonas/skydwellers etc. we're seeing more calls for explorers (1 and 2), datejusts, two tones, etc, basically watches that were only hyped because you could make a quick $1000 flipping them and now you cant

the ones that are actually hard to get remain hard to get

[zi464]

Still waiting for call

[thenewrick]

In the USA at least it's because there's a production and distribution lull in the winter time. Then new release delays. Usually allocations increase in mid summer with a peak around November/December for the holidays.

Also there were supply side issues and demand issues from 2020-2022.

So now we're back closer to 2018-2019 levels of supply and demand.

I became interested in watches around 2018 and back then I was offered several Rolex from showroom stock including Daytona, Submariner, Milgauss, Yachtmaster, DJ etc. We aren't quite back to there yet but close.

All indicators point to a return to availability for most references soon and within a couple of years for sure.

White dial Daytonas still waitlist only though. Sorry!

[BillA]

I spoke to my AD this am, she told me that they are seeing less GMT's this year than last year.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

Demand declined due to slowing economy.
Hype moved onto something else.
So prices came down.
Grays were largely caught with big inventory levels that were declining in price rather than continuing to move up.
So they aren't looking to buy much inventory.
And what they buy now doesn't sell so quickly so the spread they need to purchase watches has gone up, while selling prices have gone down.
So that drives gray purchase prices even lower.
So now most Rolex don't really have the easy money flip that they used to.
So people who were buying to flip, or even buying because they thought they wanted to own the watch are reassessing.
So many "on the list" now have other priorities when AD calls, and they pass.
Thus, more calls further down the list.

Good explanation.

[SackLVG]

Greater fool theory.

Rolex raised their prices. Grey's are overstocked in product, aren't buying and hurting big time. Margins are lower, a lot of smaller timers left the industry and ADs aren't getting the backdoor premiums. There's still a dozen or so models you can sell for a premium but everything else you are looking at taking a loss or bag holding for a while.

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

Demand declined due to slowing economy.
Hype moved onto something else.
So prices came down.
Grays were largely caught with big inventory levels that were declining in price rather than continuing to move up.
So they aren't looking to buy much inventory.
And what they buy now doesn't sell so quickly so the spread they need to purchase watches has gone up, while selling prices have gone down.
So that drives gray purchase prices even lower.
So now most Rolex don't really have the easy money flip that they used to.
So people who were buying to flip, or even buying because they thought they wanted to own the watch are reassessing.
So many "on the list" now have other priorities when AD calls, and they pass.
Thus, more calls further down the list.

As an economist I agree with this.

Just as an example, a friend of mine is into watches partly for the love of horology, but also partly for the investment side too (much to my dismay). He’s purchased over 20 Rolexes since the start of Covid, most of which are sitting in a safety deposit box at his bank, but he’s now getting a bit twitchy as greys he’s spoken to are offering less than RRP on buy-ins. Suddenly he’s seeing his “easy money” evaporate, and consequently he’s turning down pieces he’s been offered.

Sure there’s a hell of a long way to go to be back to even pre-Covid levels, but the last few years were always going to be an anomalous outlier in the grand scheme.

[Sandpit]

My opinion, they just got caught in the bursting of the everything bubble. The one where people just speculated on anything and everything.

[ROlesorusLEX]

Originally Posted by Driver8

As an economist I agree with this.



Just as an example, a friend of mine is into watches partly for the love of horology, but also partly for the investment side too (much to my dismay). He’s purchased over 20 Rolexes since the start of Covid, most of which are sitting in a safety deposit box at his bank, but he’s now getting a bit twitchy as greys he’s spoken to are offering less than RRP on buy-ins. Suddenly he’s seeing his “easy money” evaporate, and consequently he’s turning down pieces he’s been offered.



Sure there’s a hell of a long way to go to be back to even pre-Covid levels, but the last few years were always going to be an anomalous outlier in the grand scheme.

Not to mention, since the hype began, there are now 5 million + more Rolexes on the market than before, if production numbers are to be believed.

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[jrs146]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Simple as this:

1.) 90% those on the waiting lists are flippers looking for a quick buck. Now that they cannot make a 100% profit on that BLNR like in 2020 and when greys are paying them close to retail in cash, most of them are having the cold feet as they were never interested in the watch in the first place other than make a flip. Not to bring the plain Submariner or a Datejust into argument. They would now be in a loss with those references.

AD Lists are clearing faster than ever as now only true enthusiasts and Rolex admirers are parting with their money to make a purchase.

2.) ROLEX FATIQUE. Most buyers were treated poorly and usually laughed upon asking for any professional reference while AD were selling them back door or to their preferred flippers.

3.) No one stays at the top forever. - Remember the pre 2017. You could get almost anything at 10-30% OFF MSRP. History repeats and people are gradually losing interest for certain items and are moving to different things.

This is exactly it.... Still a long way from anyone walking in and getting a watch. But we are closer than further away.

[Chadridv]

Non-watch enthusiasts as well as watch dealers have been buying up overpriced watches and holding them for years now thinking their "investment" would continue to appreciate while the US and global economies face decline or at the least uncertainty. So the watch market flood is slowly happening. When the market floods the demand drops and ADs will slowly start selling to anyone that will pay.

Certain models are still relatively insulated from this, like the daytona, however that is also due to the announcement of a new reference and retirement of the 116500.

Overall prices are coming down as well as demand.

All that said, here in NY I'm still only getting calls for Tudors that I don't want lol.

[shedlock2000]

Originally Posted by jb335

Lol, you talk as if steel sport watches are back in the display case. I have an above average relationship with my AD and I have only been called once this year so far.

I’m still on the list at 5 ADs, no call for nearly 6 years bow! Nearest AD is 350 miles away now Rolex have centralised their ADs — it’s not like I can keep popping in to say ‘hi’ when I’m passing! Part of the issue with the Rolex corporate model is that they’ve pulled too many ADs.


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[messikens]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Simple as this:

1.) 90% those on the waiting lists are flippers looking for a quick buck. Now that they cannot make a 100% profit on that BLNR like in 2020 and when greys are paying them close to retail in cash, most of them are having the cold feet as they were never interested in the watch in the first place other than make a flip. Not to bring the plain Submariner or a Datejust into argument. They would now be in a loss with those references.

AD Lists are clearing faster than ever as now only true enthusiasts and Rolex admirers are parting with their money to make a purchase.

2.) ROLEX FATIQUE. Most buyers were treated poorly and usually laughed upon asking for any professional reference while AD were selling them back door or to their preferred flippers.

3.) No one stays at the top forever. - Remember the pre 2017. You could get almost anything at 10-30% OFF MSRP. History repeats and people are gradually losing interest for certain items and are moving to different things.

+1 you covered almost everything.

Add to this :
Returns on investment (even at a savings account) are a lot more enticing at 5% than 0% over the last few years - so your opportunity cost is higher

Related - more ways to spend money outside of luxury watches. Travel is back in full swing (and insanely expensive), cruises, restaurants, theme parks etc. Suddenly sitting at home with a shiny toy on your wrist is less fun when the alternative is to blow $10k on a three weeks cruise with your family


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[SDR581]

Originally Posted by msnow

I’m not buying it. It’s still just as hard as ever where I live in SoCal to get Rolexes.


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Same here. I'm in the Philly suburbs and my SA said the market hasn't changed. Every Rolex has a VIP buyer before it even gets delivered

[SDR581]

Originally Posted by SackLVG

Greater fool theory.

Rolex raised their prices. Grey's are overstocked in product, aren't buying and hurting big time. Margins are lower, a lot of smaller timers left the industry and ADs aren't getting the backdoor premiums. There's still a dozen or so models you can sell for a premium but everything else you are looking at taking a loss or bag holding for a while.

DavidSW certainly isn't hurting. He just opened a Miami location.

[HelloMelo]

Originally Posted by ROlesorusLEX

Not to mention, since the hype began, there are now 5 million + more Rolexes on the market than before, if production numbers are to be believed.

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Now Submariners are being turned down. Grey dealers are either not buying or offering MSRP on them.

I suspect Air Kings, Datejusts and Subs to be back in cases very soon. I know of actual friends/colleagues that have turned down calls for Submariners this week.

It really is happening.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Now Submariners are being turned down. Grey dealers are either not buying or offering MSRP on them.

I suspect Air Kings, Datejusts and Subs to be back in cases very soon. I know of actual friends/colleagues that have turned down calls for Submariners this week.

It really is happening.

I don’t see this.
Perhaps posters who make these claims can back it up with name of AD or more specifics

[Laostuh]

Can't relate. Haven't received a call. Just a text message about how they haven't forgotten about me. We'll see. I'm not holding my breathe.

[Fleetlord]

There seemingly are two different observations here..

One where Rolex is a now a dog on the secondary market, so sawft, even Submariners are alliegedly a HARD PASS NO BUY from “grey dealers”.

The other is I walk cold into a Rolex AD later today and politely ask to purchase a Submariner as they are very easy to acquire. How do you think that would go?

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

There seemingly are two different observations here..

One where Rolex is a now a dog on the secondary market, so sawft, even Submariners are alliegedly a HARD PASS NO BUY from “grey dealers”.

The other is I walk cold into a Rolex AD later today and politely ask to purchase a Submariner as they are very easy to acquire. How do you think that would go?

Not too good!

[stockae92]

Ever since the economy "starts to go south", my AD actually stopped calling, and I receive no offering from AD since then.

My guess is either my AD is upping their criteria (i.e. money spent) to be a "preferred customer" or people who buys Rolex is less affected by the current economy "downturn".

If egg prices are hurting your monthly budget (unless you runs a breakfast restaurant), then you probably shouldn't be shopping for a luxury watch.

Anyway, I am getting no calls .. LOL

[puma1552]

Originally Posted by stockae92

Ever since the economy "starts to go south", my AD actually stopped calling, and I receive no offering from AD since then.

My guess is either my AD is upping their criteria (i.e. money spent) to be a "preferred customer" or people who buys Rolex is less affected by the current economy "downturn".

It wouldn't make any sense for an AD to suddenly become more selective when the economy takes a downturn.

In any regards, I got call #1 last Friday, and hopefully call #2 comes very soon.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by puma1552

It wouldn't make any sense for an AD to suddenly become more selective when the economy takes a downturn.

In any regards, I got call #1 last Friday, and hopefully call #2 comes very soon.

What did they offer you?

[puma1552]

Originally Posted by BillA

What did they offer you?

Just a more attainable 36mm Datejust, in the configuration I requested (steel, Jubilee, smooth, SS). Wasn't a long wait (5 weeks from initial expression of interest, 4 weeks from going back there and putting down a deposit).