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Old 23 March 2020, 01:33 AM   #61
jaychief
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Seems a lot, personally I would wait. Think they might drop a bit...
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Old 23 March 2020, 02:04 AM   #62
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BNIB 126710BLNR are now below 13k USD in this forum! (There’s one for sale for 13k and I inquired a few weeks ago with a private seller who quoted me 14k—he just sent me a message offering it for 12.75k)
I’d wait. I would have jumped on in a month ago, but, even though I have the $ I am not in the mood. With so many people losing their jobs/business, I’d feel guilty picking something up so trivial
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Old 23 March 2020, 02:06 AM   #63
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The Germany had particularly high prices of Rolex BLRO watches before the market crash, so I see how the $15K may look good to you just a week later from seeing them at $18K.

However, at this point I would suggest as most of guys here - hold on for a month longer to see how this goes. It won't get back to $18K if that's what worries you, it can only go down from here ..
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:03 AM   #64
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:19 AM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankNYC View Post
BNIB 126710BLNR are now below 13k USD in this forum! (There’s one for sale for 13k and I inquired a few weeks ago with a private seller who quoted me 14k—he just sent me a message offering it for 12.75k)
I’d wait. I would have jumped on in a month ago, but, even though I have the $ I am not in the mood. With so many people losing their jobs/business, I’d feel guilty picking something up so trivial
So well said bud
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:27 AM   #66
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Wait !
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:50 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie View Post
I think most of us are looking back to 2016-2017 when the hulks couldn’t sell for $7,500k and the BLNRs were $8,500.
Exactly Before the IG hype and pyramid scheme
I foresee prices will come down as well, just not sure how much. MSRP would be the logical step, then followed to 10-20% like pre-hype era.

OP - I wouldn't pay over retail for anything in life. And I think it's fair to assume that on a forum like this, most of us can afford too
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:52 AM   #68
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I´d buy it and won´t wait one day longer. You only live once!
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:54 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by FrankNYC View Post
BNIB 126710BLNR are now below 13k USD in this forum! (There’s one for sale for 13k and I inquired a few weeks ago with a private seller who quoted me 14k—he just sent me a message offering it for 12.75k)
I’d wait. I would have jumped on in a month ago, but, even though I have the $ I am not in the mood. With so many people losing their jobs/business, I’d feel guilty picking something up so trivial
I think flippers will try to get as much as possible if they bought the watch at retail. Market has driven the prices up and market will drive them back down if nobody is buying or paying over list.
I agree with your mood. I believe most of us feel like that
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:57 AM   #70
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prices crashing... an in a month will be close to MSRP to MSRP + 2k once job losses occur and depedning on condition, box, papers.
However, would be best to invest in the market at that point also. (?)
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Old 23 March 2020, 05:06 AM   #71
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I wouldn't buy anything right now tbh
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Old 23 March 2020, 05:19 AM   #72
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I would love to get back to the -15%Submariner/Sea Dweller days.

I also agree with you that the DaytonaC will be an anomaly, I have a hunch it will hold at or slight above MSRP no matter what happens. Same for Patek 5711.
I agree with you. I think the Daytona will always be above MSRP and will have a waiting list for a year or so. I think for reputation purpose Rolex will keep it. I think all the rest will go to MSRP level, they need liquidity. The ppl who burn will be the gray dealers, they will drop the prices, and then the question will be do you pay MSRP to AD and get the full experience or go for a grey and pay 5% less.

I do not expect discounts on the GMTS because they are nice watches, and the people who can afford MSRP will buy them to enjoy them.

On the 5711, not sure, the MSRP is 30K CHF which is a high price for a time only SS model. I expect them to have a waiting list, but not be an allocation piece like today. Waiting list for a year or two, and a grey price fo 40-45k - this is my expectation.

The problem is that the AD's and Rolex will have liquidity issues at the same time. So they need to put more SS models on the market.

I am curious to see what is happening with FPJ CB and Richard Mille.
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Old 23 March 2020, 05:37 AM   #73
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I’d be delighted if people did get them.

Certainly around here (UK) I still don’t think that will happen as a rule. The demand for Pepsi’s at retail will remain extremely strong and supply will still remain below demand. That’s my prediction.

Perhaps more likely where you are in the world?
Why would the UK be any different? When the batman came out, you could buy it everywhere in the world with discount. People forget on this forum how it was until 4 years ago... Shit will hit the fan, and discounts are going to be normal again. However this can take some while, we are not talking weeks or months.

I dont care for the pepsi/batman etc though, I think a lot off the hype and people buying these were for ''fun investment'' and those will be gone soon.

I only believe what you say will be true if Rolex would limit the production!
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Old 23 March 2020, 05:45 AM   #74
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MSRP is a good price. That’s what I would pay.
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Old 23 March 2020, 05:55 AM   #75
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Bnib from March 2019. Anyone would buy now or wait further?
I'd wait.
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Old 23 March 2020, 06:02 AM   #76
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I don’t think anyone is really interested in buying right now. ADs will be taking all their stocks out of the safes soon. Theres going to be a price cut war among them to keep their business going.
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Old 23 March 2020, 06:08 AM   #77
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It takes a while for financial pain to work its way through the systems. Layoffs will increase as liquidity is exhausted. Personal liquidity then dwindles, bringing a lot of assets on the market. Houses, cars, watches, nothing is spared.

Also, dealers with leverage will need to sell inventory to keep their days on hand within their lender’s borrowing bases. This too will take time.

Keep in mind it took a couple years for stainless Daytonas to get to MSRP in the 2008 downturn.

We will not immediately recover to where we were when COVAD 19 passes, you cannot shut down this much GDP without a large one time dent to net worth. Wealth effects have a large correlation to luxury purchases.
Well put
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Old 23 March 2020, 06:09 AM   #78
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Don’t feed the flippers. Wait for msrp.
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Old 23 March 2020, 06:30 AM   #79
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I don’t see that happening.....at all.
Remind me of this post if it does, and I’ll eat humble pie
To be honest I don’t care either way. I’m neither buying nor selling, quite content with my collection for now - which includes a ‘Pepsi C’.
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Old 23 March 2020, 06:31 AM   #80
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15k is a good offer IMO, to all the people saying it will be retail soon are dreaming.
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Old 23 March 2020, 06:53 AM   #81
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To be honest I don’t care either way. I’m neither buying nor selling, quite content with my collection for now - which includes a ‘Pepsi C’.
Same mate
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Old 23 March 2020, 07:11 AM   #82
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15k is a good offer IMO, to all the people saying it will be retail soon are dreaming.

Maybe 2019. Not so much anymore.
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Old 23 March 2020, 07:12 AM   #83
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Not buying at inflated prices is wise at the moment. But not buying at all - whatever it is you "want" to buy - is very detrimental to the economy.

Those 25-35s not flashing their luxury items on the Gram is welcome reprieve, but not buying things, luxury or otherwise, will simply lead to an accelerated financial collapse. The virtue signalling is the opposite of what is intended here - yeah people are losing their jobs, and the retail sector will be one of the hardest hit; how do you keep the retail sector going? Yeah - buying stuff! So buy stuff, just don't go flashing it all over social media (now or when times are good!).
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Old 23 March 2020, 07:42 AM   #84
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Nah...just wait.
They will only get cheaper for the near future.
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Old 23 March 2020, 09:28 AM   #85
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There are 400 pepsis and 800 ceramic daytonas on chrono24 right now
Do the math...
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Old 23 March 2020, 10:13 AM   #86
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A week ago I would have said yes. Not today.
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Old 23 March 2020, 10:35 AM   #87
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If you pay that right now, the seller will be laughing all the way to the bank that he was able to snake a sale before everything turns to ****. I can’t believe you’re even entertaining this right now.

Agree. Just be patient.


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Old 23 March 2020, 12:10 PM   #88
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that's still a huge premier, I would wait
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Old 23 March 2020, 12:12 PM   #89
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I’d wait it out. Soon.
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Old 23 March 2020, 12:45 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by Me4u2night View Post
For 15k, does that include the watch and an endless supply of toilet paper?

Pass!

Hahahahahhaha this was awesome. Toilet paper is getting more scarce than SS models.


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