Any 116610LV owners interested in a Cermit?

[ragingcao]

Sunburst or Bust.

[Cru Jones]

No.

It’s all about the dial....

Way back when, I bought a white 16570 when I could have bought a 16610LV. Actually compared the two at an AD! But when the 116610LV came out, I flipped the Explorer II to buy the 116610LV.

[KNFRT]

Originally Posted by Potawatomi

As in an ugly ogre of a watch?

The ugly ogre will turn out to be a charming prince when we see it live !


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[ctang]

I have interest in the Cermit, as an original Kermit owner. The latter is my favorite and to have a descendant of it but with a much updated mechanical movement and modern adjustable bracelet for wearing comfort is awesome.

They’re from completely different eras so it’s not like a lame panerai OOR SE reissue.

[brandog]

Green and black dont go well imo.

[coleburns]

I already emailed my AD about one and the new OP 41 in yellow. Seeing them in person will change might my mind but until then i am excited

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[Ihatecheese]

It will be interesting to see how some owners react now that the new more exclusive version is available as Rolex and presumably fashion norms move away from that previous sizing

[danwang0520]

i'm keeping my Hulk~

[guanxi]

Keeping my Hulk and adding a Kermit 2.0 and a 36 OP yellow for the wife, thank you very much!

[Toproll85]

No, the Hulk is the last LV with a historic 40mm case and the only one with a sunburst dial. You would have to be crazy to sell it, unless you want to take advantage of the price that has or will explode!

[DM101]

Originally Posted by ctang

I have interest in the Cermit, as an original Kermit owner. The latter is my favorite and to have a descendant of it but with a much updated mechanical movement and modern adjustable bracelet for wearing comfort is awesome.

They’re from completely different eras so it’s not like a lame panerai OOR SE reissue.

Yes me too

[glamorama]

The most common comments from Hulk owners has always been that they love the dial. The bezel was usually something that was tolerated or neutral at best. At least that was my impression. So what does Rolex do? They remove that dial (good cost saving).

[Northlove]

The dial on the Hulk is the reason the green works imo. I won't swap mine.

[Turb0wned]

I’m actually interested in the cermit. Won’t sell the Hulk for one though, if anything I might try to trade the Hulk for a white Dial Daytona depending on where the prices go.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by Potawatomi

The new watch doesn't make me want it more than the LV with the green dial. Any other owners feel the same or do you guys feel like you need the Cermit to add to the hulk?

I really want to buy a new Sub, but because I have a Hulk I don't think a Cermit will add anything, and because I have an SD43 I feel the same way about the black Sub. I may go for a Sub no date, I really like how simple and symmetrical it looks.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by Toproll85

No, the Hulk is the last LV with a historic 40mm case and the only one with a sunburst dial. You would have to be crazy to sell it.

Exactly

[thesharkfactor]

Cermit! That I like .. accepted!

[Greg.A]

Now hulk hogs the limelight as it is “discontinued” although it wasn’t even a really popular watch when it was released. don’t buy the hype now only to see its comeback later at 41mm.

[Rolexavidfan]

I will add a Cermit! Rolex has a winner here. Subjective opinion.

I regretted not buying the Kermit back in 2009 when it is in display rack.


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[chiscott_29]

The rationale and justification people give to defend their position about what is "going to go up" is just comical.

The Hulk always had its fans, but it was also far from popular for a long time. Over the past 3 years or so, thanks to IG and social media, the Hulk is in the same category as a Nautilus or Royal Oak.

It's a cool watch and I get the appeal - I previously owned one. But, I believe the hype will die down on this watch. There are literally hundreds of thousands of them out there. It's as rare as dirt. When the hype fades (and it IS hype and it WILL fade), so will the prices.

Also, keep in mind the price increase the last 3 months is almost certainly market manipulation by dealers - Who in their right mind is paying $20k for this watch? You'd have to literally be insane to spend that on a basic tool watch. Find me ONE actual real person that is paying this price.

By the way, I'm not hating on the Hulk at all. As I said, it's definitely a cool piece. Personally it was just a bit too loud for what I wanted in a wearable daily. But this watch personifies the effects of internet hype, and that's just not sustainable.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Cru Jones

No.

It’s all about the dial....

Way back when, I bought a white 16570 when I could have bought a 16610LV. Actually compared the two at an AD! But when the 116610LV came out, I flipped the Explorer II to buy the 116610LV.

Exactly otherwise you would have the black sub as the green bezel is not a strong part of the watch.

I have a feeling this was a lazy quick change by Rolex that might be corrected with a sunburst dial in a year or two, much like the flat blue TT was due to popular WIS demand, but only if Rolex can hear us WIS over the hype insta noise that will jump on any sub novelty.

[theqnguyen]

Keeping the Hulk. Prefer the old kermit over the new ceramic one.

[brandog]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

The rationale and justification people give to defend their position about what is "going to go up" is just comical.

The Hulk always had its fans, but it was also far from popular for a long time. Over the past 3 years or so, thanks to IG and social media, the Hulk is in the same category as a Nautilus or Royal Oak.

It's a cool watch and I get the appeal - I previously owned one. But, I believe the hype will die down on this watch. There are literally hundreds of thousands of them out there. It's as rare as dirt. When the hype fades (and it IS hype and it WILL fade), so will the prices.

Also, keep in mind the price increase the last 3 months is almost certainly market manipulation by dealers - Who in their right mind is paying $20k for this watch? You'd have to literally be insane to spend that on a basic tool watch. Find me ONE actual real person that is paying this price.

By the way, I'm not hating on the Hulk at all. As I said, it's definitely a cool piece. Personally it was just a bit too loud for what I wanted in a wearable daily. But this watch personifies the effects of internet hype, and that's just not sustainable.

There are literally countless sales around or above $20,000.

[Oat Willy]

I was nervous they were going to do an updated version of the Hulk, which of course would make me want to "upgrade" my Hulk. I was thinking groan...oh man. I'd have to sell it then try and get the new one, which would suck, but I'd have this gnawing compulsion to do it. Relieved right now that I won't have to go down that road to madness!

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by brandog

There are literally countless sales around or above $20,000.

I'd bet every dollar I have, the "sales" are happening in the following order:

1) Dealers
2) Speculators
3) People who actually want this watch and think it is worth $20k

Only #3 can support a given price point. The amount of market manipulation that is taking place right now is stunning, and that's not just happening with Rolex SS watches. Look at FP Journe - that market has been manipulated into a frenzy. It's a joke - The CB is now "worth $60k" after spiraling to $45k no less than 6 months ago.

I have and will always defend the secondary market - I think in many cases it's efficient and serves a great purpose. But, I cannot rationalize this Rolex SS frenzy. It just doesn't add up. There are literally millions Subs/GMT/Daytonas out there. At least with FPJ there is some evidence of scarcity and genuine craftsmanship (and that's not meant to rip on Rolex that clearly isn't meant to be a finely finished watch).

[mykii]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I'd bet every dollar I have, the "sales" are happening in the following order:

1) Dealers
2) Speculators
3) People who actually want this watch and think it is worth $20k

Only #3 can support a given price point. The amount of market manipulation that is taking place right now is stunning, and that's not just happening with Rolex SS watches. Look at FP Journe - that market has been manipulated into a frenzy. It's a joke - The CB is now "worth $60k" after spiraling to $45k no less than 6 months ago.

I have and will always defend the secondary market - I think in many cases it's efficient and serves a great purpose. But, I cannot rationalize this Rolex SS frenzy. It just doesn't add up. There are literally millions Subs/GMT/Daytonas out there. At least with FPJ there is some evidence of scarcity and genuine craftsmanship (and that's not meant to rip on Rolex that clearly isn't meant to be a finely finished watch).

And people are paying 60k for a CB. Just like they're paying $20k. Just because you can't understand it doesn't mean this isn't where the market is. I have had offers on my own Hulk already since it has been left NIB since picking it up recently and then having to travel for work (thus, I haven't been able to wear it - how lucky I am now to be able to say that).

I have noted no less than 13 sales on Chrono24 since Monday, from 53 listings to 40 when I checked this morning (its probably even less now). That is in the span of less than 24hrs. Other independent traders have since lost all their stock.

The highest sale I have tracked was $27k for an unworn Hulk in the UAE. I don't think it will stay the highest for long. With every day that passes, unworn Hulks are becoming rarer and rarer as people buy them to wear them, meaning they exit the unworn market forever.

I don't plan to sell mine as of today, so I don't really care, but the sales and value is actualized.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by mykii

And people are paying 60k for a CB. Just like they're paying $20k. Just because you can't understand it doesn't mean this isn't where the market is. I have had offers on my own Hulk already since it has been left NIB since picking it up recently and then having to travel for work (thus, I haven't been able to wear it - how lucky I am now to be able to say that).

I have noted no less than 13 sales on Chrono24 since Monday, from 53 listings to 40 when I checked this morning (its probably even less now). That is in the span of less than 24hrs. Other independent traders have since lost all their stock.

I totally understand where the market is. I think what I am saying is many watches behave like stocks these days. Just like stocks are manipulated and subject to short term reactions, so are some watch models. At any given point in time, I can't explain it, nor can anybody else. None of this changes reality for sure. If I wanted a Hulk, it would cost me $22k despite how much I think this is insane and comical.

All anybody can do is what they feel is best given the information they have. My personal thoughts are we're in a short term period of high market values based primarily on supply shortages from Covid-19 and a rapid period of wealth expansion created by equity market appreciation. Or, maybe not. Maybe the Hulk will be $50k by Christmas.

At some point, I think any specific watch will navigate to the perceived value of those who actually want the watch. The dealers and speculation components will fade in and out...

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I totally understand where the market is. I think what I am saying is many watches behave like stocks these days. Just like stocks are manipulated and subject to short term reactions, so are some watch models. At any given point in time, I can't explain it, nor can anybody else. None of this changes reality for sure. If I wanted a Hulk, it would cost me $22k despite how much I think this is insane and comical.

All anybody can do is what they feel is best given the information they have. My personal thoughts are we're in a short term period of high market values based primarily on supply shortages from Covid-19 and a rapid period of wealth expansion created by equity market appreciation. Or, maybe not. Maybe the Hulk will be $50k by Christmas.

At some point, I think any specific watch will navigate to the perceived value of those who actually want the watch. The dealers and speculation components will fade in and out...

1. Hulk seemed made right for IG for standout color and shiny bezel.
2. To corner CBJ market would only take 200k given so little inventory. To corner Hulk market probably takes 2M. Easy to do when interest rates are zero.

3. Even 5 hulks would not hold a candle to your AP Openworked.

[Goin2drt]

Whoever made up the name Cermit needs to be let go from ever having anything to do with Rolex. What a dumb name.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

3. Even 5 hulks would not hold a candle to your AP Openworked.

Haha!! I have been trying to choose my words carefully here. Clearly, I've been one that supports the secondary market as evidenced by the Openworked. I genuinely feel it's a huge positive development over the past decade. So, I am not trying to disparage it in any way. I made what I hope is a sound decision on the Openworked, taking into account my genuine desire and appreciation of the watch. Appreciation counts for something in terms of perceived value, whether it is a Swatch or a Patek Grand Complication.

Anyway, your numbers/analysis are great and I think it helps solidify my opinion. This market is ripe for speculation and manipulation, and I'm convinced it is occurring. You're spot on - It would take hardly any capital at all to do this.

Next up: A Lange & Sohne market manipulation...