Daytona Price Surge!

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

“Between 2009 and 2019, we estimate that Rolex’s annual production went from 800,000 to 1m, a very moderate +2.5 percent CAGR. In 2020, Rolex could have easily kept the production volume of 2019, but rather than supplying the markets with bigger quantities and making its watches more accessible, it decided to reduce the output and shift inventories from markets where the Coronavirus had forced the business to close to other markets,” states the Morgan Stanley report. “Rolex appears focused on applying a luxury strategy built on driving scarcity. This means growing the production slowly annually. It also means a very strong focus on fighting the grey market, now the plague of a number of luxury watches, given the transparency on pricing brought by a number of dedicated trading sites.”

https://revolution.watch/ultimate-wi...x-shined-2020/

No evidence that was Rolex’s intended strategy for 2020 or their doing. Production ground to a halt in March/April as facilities were closed... which reduced annual production capability by at least 150K units. Shuddering production due to Covid was not Rolex’s decision.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by vh2k

No evidence that was Rolex’s intended strategy for 2020 or their doing. Production ground to a halt in March/April as facilities were closed... which reduced annual production capability by at least 150K units. Shuddering production due to Covid was not Rolex’s decision.

I'm guessing Morgan Stanley didn't come with that out of thin air. They are saying that even with COVID restrictions they could've matched 2019 production.

[RedGlasses]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

Sneaker market is different in a couple of ways, especially relative to watches.

1. There are new releases all the time (every few months)
2. Everyone theoretically has a chance to obtain a pair because sales are online and sold direct by the manufacturer.

Otherwise, you have a robust secondary market and hype train driving up prices. Obviously the price points are much lower...

I'm involved in the Sneakers market, as a collector, buyer and reseller.

1.There are new releases every WEEK (i'm talking of limited editions sneakers). And hot releases 2 or 3 every month.
2. For HOT releases, You need an online bot, or a plug (backdoor) with a store manager to get your shoes that are not always sold directly by the manufacturer but through also many different channels (shoe stores or special occasions, (conventions etc)). You also need luck because they do raffles to give you a chance to buy.

The market is crazy and also went up when Manufacturers decided to limit supply. What is a plague in this market is counterfeit. They are everywhere and so nicely done sometimes! It could take quiet some time to detect a fake Air Jordan or yeezy.

Adidas had a 2 years run of hype because they limited their newest shoes (in 2017) called NMD. And Human Races (Pharell williams was the brand ambassador). Once they decided to re issue their 1st NMDs to the exact same one, adidas market crashed, and hype died. Collectors HATED it.

The difference with watches is that you don't need to build up a relationship with an AD (it could help with some store managers) to make a purchase.

Also what hyped up the market is how brands did collaborations with artists. (Mainly singers, rappers etc) I would not suggest watch brands to do the same at all (Couple years ago there were a rumor that Rolex and Supreme would release a collab together, and for the sake of Rolex reputation I'm glad it didn't happen).

Both market share some similar strategies and the most striking one to me, is when they limit supply the overall demand is crazy. And they manage perfectly to make a "general release" and be successful at selling it because hype was built through the limited editions ones.

[JodyHighroller]

Originally Posted by RedGlasses

I'm involved in the Sneakers market, as a collector, buyer and reseller.

1.There are new releases every WEEK (i'm talking of limited editions sneakers). And hot releases 2 or 3 every month.
2. For HOT releases, You need an online bot, or a plug (backdoor) with a store manager to get your shoes that are not always sold directly by the manufacturer but through also many different channels (shoe stores or special occasions, (conventions etc)). You also need luck because they do raffles to give you a chance to buy.

The market is crazy and also went up when Manufacturers decided to limit supply. What is a plague in this market is counterfeit. They are everywhere and so nicely done sometimes! It could take quiet some time to detect a fake Air Jordan or yeezy.

Adidas had a 2 years run of hype because they limited their newest shoes (in 2017) called NMD. And Human Races (Pharell williams was the brand ambassador). Once they decided to re issue their 1st NMDs to the exact same one, adidas market crashed, and hype died. Collectors HATED it.

The difference with watches is that you don't need to build up a relationship with an AD (it could help with some store managers) to make a purchase.

Also what hyped up the market is how brands did collaborations with artists. (Mainly singers, rappers etc) I would not suggest watch brands to do the same at all (Couple years ago there were a rumor that Rolex and Supreme would release a collab together, and for the sake of Rolex reputation I'm glad it didn't happen).

Both market share some similar strategies and the most striking one to me, is when they limit supply the overall demand is crazy. And they manage perfectly to make a "general release" and be successful at selling it because hype was built through the limited editions ones.

I agree with the collabs between watch brands and artists, etc. Look at the heat AP is taking on with the marvel collaboration and release from yesterday.

[RedGlasses]

Originally Posted by JodyHighroller

I agree with the collabs between watch brands and artists, etc. Look at the heat AP is taking on with the marvel collaboration and release from yesterday.

Yes! exactly...

Murakami and Hublot was interesting though, for some brands, collabs could boost their reputation, or 'spice up' a collection.

In the watch market I love how we associate a watch to its celebrity ambassador (bubba watson, raphael nadal, paul newman...), without putting its face/image on the watch itself.

[TradingLoss]

How do I short this? I should talk to CME Group to issue futures contracts against SS Daytonas so I can speculate on the price fluctuations.

1 contract collateralized against 10 watches...now for the tick size hmmm...

[smg8]

Some great posts here, and after a while away from the forums due to a fading interest in Rolex it’s a great reminder of why I gave up on the brand :)

Rather than the lack of supply making me want one more, I’ve simply switched to other brands who don’t make out they’re doing me a favour by selling me a watch. Part of the experience of owning luxury items is the purchasing experience and the idea of sucking up to dealers and begging them to sell me a watch is almost as absurd as paying 2-3x MSRP.

For context I do have a good relationship with an AD, from whom I declined a list price stainless 5711 in 2019 (so they know I’m not a flipper) and from whom I purchased a list price aquanaut 5167. The fact even they fob me off when “trying” to buy a Rolex led to my last purchase of an Omega (bought brand new online, delivered next day, no messing about).

Currently in the market for a chrono and as much as a Daytona at list would appeal, I’m happier picking up a speedmaster or Breitling Chronomat and actually being made to feel that someone wants my business rather than them doing me a favour.

Fair play to those of you more patient than me, or with a specific passion for a watch that can only be fulfilled by Rolex. But it’s not for me anymore (I do love my GMT though), and know I’m not the only one amongst my friends/contacts.

[rollex4me]

The price is dictated by whatever someone is willing to pay for it. That's how the free market works. If you don't like the price of the Daytona buy something else! To be upset about it is wrong, don't hate the player hate the game! La Ferrari, Birkin bags, Stocks, NFT's, Jordans etc etc.

[TradingLoss]

Originally Posted by rollex4me

The price is dictated by whatever someone is willing to pay for it. That's how the free market works. If you don't like the price of the Daytona buy something else! To be upset about it is wrong, don't hate the player hate the game! La Ferrari, Birkin bags, Stocks, NFT's, Jordans etc etc.

This +1