Rolex Watch Trends for 2011-2012

[Ski Dweller]

Hey folks, as we end the year, I am seeing more posts about what watches may be reaching the end of their "hotness". Regarding the Daytona, it seems that the quick rise in price has discouraged many buyers. This is quite interesting. Is the price strategy of Rolex based on demand only, rather than additional complexity or cost of luxury features?

The Daytona is in low demand, simply because dealers "only get two SS Daytona watches per year". Sure, those two watches may be sold quickly, or they may end up in the dealer's safe, while the dealer adds to the "supply squeeze" and waits for the next year's price increase. I don't see a heck of a lot of SDDS out there, but I can always find a Submariner, Explorers, GMT's, and Yachtmasters in every dealer. With that said, the price of the Submariner has risen quite a bit, yet there is ample supply.

Looking forward, which watches will be the "hot" watches? Will the larger watches continue to dominate? Size appears to be the new "bling" today, while the more obvious choices - gold, diamonds and so on, seem to be the realm of Hong Kong.

What watches do you think will become the next Daytona? Will the next Daytona be the "next Daytona"? What vintage watches will increase in demand?

[Naples09]

Who said AD's only get two Dayton's a year? From what I've read that is not true.

[NMS75]

I can't predict the future (bit of a shame really as I could make enough cash out of it to buy a Daytona - if my AD has one?!) so I can't really answer this questions. One thing, however, is certain and that is Rolex will hike their prices and we will moan about it on this forum. On a more positive note I am quite looking forward to Basel 2011-always interesting.

M

[Ski Dweller]

Search the forum: Two daytonas a year.

You'll get a ton of hits. The rumor is alive and well on this forum. I've asked two local dealers based on the information pushed on this forum. They aren't big, but they aren't small. They get two. I'd bet larger markets get more. The point is to sell watches, rather than let them sit in pockets in local markets at AD's.

[Watchdog]

Originally Posted by Ski Dweller

Search the forum: Two daytonas a year.

You'll get a ton of hits. The rumor is alive and well on this forum. I've asked two local dealers based on the information pushed on this forum. They aren't big, but they aren't small. They get two. I'd bet larger markets get more. The point is to sell watches, rather than let them sit in pockets in local markets at AD's.

Of course certain dealers will only get two a year, but largely it's a myth to drive up sales.

I know of an A.D. in Las Vegas that gets between 10-12 SS Daytonas EVERY SINGLE MONTH!

[Watchdog]

I would think the new orange hand Explorer II (that almost assuredly will be released at Basel) will be a hit. However, I doubt it will match the frenzy a few years back for the SS Daytona. Paying in the $6 thousand dollar range made some sense back then, but now with taxes a few years later that same SS Daytona is fetching more than $11,000

IMO Rolex needs to offer more dial choices for the SS Daytona if they are going to demand such a lofty price for a stainless steel watch.

Now, if Rolex ever updates the Daytona, making it with a bigger wrist presence and adding a date, sales will skyrocket. Sure, you'll have the old owners who profess that the Daytona is perfect as is, but you will also have a whole bunch of new fans that would embrace such changes and lineup to purchase the watch.

[Roxas]

I think it depends on the AD. I see Daytona SS often when I visit the AD. It can't be only 2 watches per year. It might be true in the past but not now.

[The GMT Master]

The Daytona myth is being well and truly busted. People are catching on to the fact that it's not a rare watch - my place of work is hardly the world's biggest AD, and we've had one a month this year, it's getting to the point where we sell pretty much the same kind of numbers as GMTs and Sub Dates. The only difference is that there is a massive demand, although this does seem to be limited to the white dial at present. I think the Sub will continue to sell well next year, and will do considerably better than the GMT - it will take some time to exhaust demand, and then they'll start selling in roughly equal numbers again. I also think that the big watch trend is starting to come to an end, so 40-42mm watches will be in the most demand (compared to the 45mm+ watches that have been so popular in recent times). Next year will, in my opinion, either see the death of the ND Sub, or the launch of a new one. Also expect an Orange Hand Explorer II, and the outside chance of revisions to the Yacht-Master.


2011 is going to be a very important year for watch manufacturers, there will be big power shifts. I expect Rolex will cut production, and attempt to appear more exclusive, and keep themselves aloof from Omega's challenge to their position. 2011 could also spell the deaths of a lot of underperforming ADs as well, which can only help improve the quality of the Rolex buying experience. Will there be more price increases? I hope not, but you can never rule them out with Rolex.

Those are my predictions, lambast me in 12 months if I'm completely wrong

[KirkWilfred]

Great posts gentleman. Very informative!