Rolex pricing trends

[Gina Marie]

I have noticed that rolex 1680 red pricing has not moved in the last 6 to 12 months....the same can be said for 1675 and 1655 pricing. 5513s have moved but not like the heuers or wakmanns recently. Is the rolex market maturing? Were rolexes the first to move and the rest of the market is catching up? The only Rolex that i have noticed to make a big jump this year is the 16610lv mark1/1 which really came into its own this past year.

[thomaspp]

My theory is that the lower end of vintage is creeping up because the market is generally slow so folks are trying to make money there. That being said, the truly great examples are still getting more expensive...


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[dexvd]

From what I've seen the market has shifted to focus price growth and big money on those 'auction watches' with perfect condition, with almost unique but correct dials in terms of patina or condition or slight difference and provenance.

I feel like the big money has moved on from the average 5513 or 1675 and are more into getting 'perfect' or super rare pieces to add to their collection of safe queens that they seem to hold for a while and then flip again at another big auction a few years down the road. I've noticed an increase in pieces mentioned in auction reports have history of pricing at past auctions, which makes me feel that the big money high profile auctions are starting to have more and more of the same watches repeatedly listed.

I feel like for wearable condition Rolex vintage, like it seems the majority of the enthusiasts/collectors in this forum are more interested in, the prices of been stagnant for a while, which is great for those of us that are just looking to wear great vintage Rolex pieces or get into the hobby but bad for those of us who may have tried to speculate and buy pieces hoping to make a profit on the resale a couple years later.

[Toronto Soup King]

Dunno if we'll see any more rises in vintage prices for the undistinguished older watches, frankly I think $6K+ for service-dial polished-case 30-year-old Subs is a bit much given what they sold for only a couple of years ago (and not far off what they want for LNIB/BNIB ones on the grey market). The top-end market is a different beast, subject to different factors, and IMO has more in common with art markets

[rootbeer7]

Originally Posted by dexvd

From what I've seen the market has shifted to focus price growth and big money on those 'auction watches' with perfect condition, with almost unique but correct dials in terms of patina or condition or slight difference and provenance.

I feel like the big money has moved on from the average 5513 or 1675 and are more into getting 'perfect' or super rare pieces to add to their collection of safe queens that they seem to hold for a while and then flip again at another big auction a few years down the road. I've noticed an increase in pieces mentioned in auction reports have history of pricing at past auctions, which makes me feel that the big money high profile auctions are starting to have more and more of the same watches repeatedly listed.

I feel like for wearable condition Rolex vintage, like it seems the majority of the enthusiasts/collectors in this forum are more interested in, the prices of been stagnant for a while, which is great for those of us that are just looking to wear great vintage Rolex pieces or get into the hobby but bad for those of us who may have tried to speculate and buy pieces hoping to make a profit on the resale a couple years later.

I think your last line sums it up. People thought they could turn a quick buck by flipping average pieces for a quick profit, they don't sell and the market only grows at the top end, perfect/full set pieces.

[subx]

Originally Posted by dexvd

From what I've seen the market has shifted to focus price growth and big money on those 'auction watches' with perfect condition, with almost unique but correct dials in terms of patina or condition or slight difference and provenance.

I feel like the big money has moved on from the average 5513 or 1675 and are more into getting 'perfect' or super rare pieces to add to their collection of safe queens that they seem to hold for a while and then flip again at another big auction a few years down the road. I've noticed an increase in pieces mentioned in auction reports have history of pricing at past auctions, which makes me feel that the big money high profile auctions are starting to have more and more of the same watches repeatedly listed.

I feel like for wearable condition Rolex vintage, like it seems the majority of the enthusiasts/collectors in this forum are more interested in, the prices of been stagnant for a while, which is great for those of us that are just looking to wear great vintage Rolex pieces or get into the hobby but bad for those of us who may have tried to speculate and buy pieces hoping to make a profit on the resale a couple years later.

I could not agree more.
I would add that : if it is to follow the car collector market, the barn find all original beat examples will become the new IT FACTOR, and may surpass those perfect 'stage-d' auction pieces

[droptopman]

Only followed the vintage market for the last few years, but I have followed it fairly closely. The "safe queens" seem to always demand top dollar regardless of the economy or other markets.

I have observed that more common matte 5513's and 1675's really shot up over the last two-three years but seem to have leveled off some. So I would agree I have not seen much movement on pricing on more common models the last few months.
However, 6263/5 continue to climb. I have been in the market for a mid 70's Big Red and they have almost priced themselves out of my tolerable range.

I believe gilt Subs and GMT's are also in that category, they seem to keep increasing even for more average condition examples. I was looking for a 1966 5513 Gilt Bart for a birth year watch for at least a couple of years. Looked at multiple sources, multiple times daily. Unfortunately, I did not find one the I really liked and the search took a long time. I finally found one a few months ago and I estimate it cost 5-10K more than similar examples when I started searching. In the end I am very happy with the watch I found, but I would have been happier at 5K less

With the internet the "barn yard" finds are almost impossible to source anymore. Cars or watches. I owned a speciality vintage car lot back in the late 80's, early 90's and you could still find deals and cars and jewelry back then, it is much more difficult now with the internet. Anybody that needs to move a product can google search and find a buyer...they do not necessarily need the guy down the street with the brick and mortar store to sell to.

[V.lats97nsx]

Snowflake has shot up

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[dexvd]

Originally Posted by v.lats97nsx

Snowflake has shot up

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I have noticed in the past 2 years that many Tudor models are all of the sudden on par pricing wise with Rolex watches. I'm just wondering how well they are actually selling at those listed prices though. I would have a hard time paying 5 figures for a Tudor.

[rootbeer7]

Originally Posted by dexvd

I have noticed in the past 2 years that many Tudor models are all of the sudden on par pricing wise with Rolex watches. I'm just wondering how well they are actually selling at those listed prices though. I would have a hard time paying 5 figures for a Tudor.

I've been offered close to 70% more for my Big Block recently than last year (it's not fir sale)! Perfect condition and virtual full set with RSC papers

[Vincent65]

1675s are definitely going up.

[JohnnyNoDate]

The entire Tudor range seems hot, especially clean Snowflakes and Chrono's. Rare Military issues and Homeplates are priced at a premium.

As droptopman mentioned, I see movement with the more rare variety Rolex's; gilt dials, exclamation, tropical, particular inserts and fades, and exceptional provanence). These examples also appear on the market less frequently now...

I've been following double Red Sea-dwellers and red submariners with particular interest. They've been holding steady for almost a year. Same for "general example" 5513, 1680, 1675 - Imo. I think the market has "matured."

I've noticed the most growth with older 321/premoon speedmaster's (still...) and steel chronographs (trending). Auction house coincidences?

[dexvd]

Originally Posted by JohnnyNoDate

The entire Tudor range seems hot, especially clean Snowflakes and Chrono's. Rare Military issues and Homeplates are priced at a premium.

As droptopman mentioned, I see movement with the more rare variety Rolex's; gilt dials, exclamation, tropical, particular inserts and fades, and exceptional provanence). These examples also appear on the market less frequently now...

I've been following double Red Sea-dwellers and red submariners with particular interest. They've been holding steady for almost a year. Same for "general example" 5513, 1680, 1675 - Imo. I think the market has "matured."

I've noticed the most growth with older 321/premoon speedmaster's (still...) and steel chronographs (trending). Auction house coincidences?

I do think there is an auction house effect, similar to the Bring a Loupe 'Hodinkee Effect'. I'm not sure how much of an effect there was on Day Dates though, I wasn't paying that much attention but I don't think there was much of a shift in the wearable condition pieces anyway.

I'm not really into speculating, flipping or any of that but price movements do concern me somewhat as I am attempting to build a collection over time and don't want to end up getting priced out of certain pieces as I bought other watches the remained stable in their pricing first!

I find some of the price action in some of the 4 or 5 digit models, stuff that was made for ~20 years weird as one in average condition doesn't seem to be scarce, there were tons produced... It just seems like flippers are buying them and then reselling them to make a profit and their profit is driving up the price. Would love to hear the opinion of some of those guys on what they see the market doing, the stuff they talk about at those 'Collectors Summits' is all out of my price range anyway, so I don't really care what those pieces are doing but would love to hear thoughts on how the pieces that are say under ~20k have been moving over the past few years. It would be an interesting thing to track, lots of variables involved but I'm guessing some people out there have been.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by Vincent65

1675s are definitely going up.

GMTs are stil hot hot hot. Jacek had a 16750 in really nice original condition (no b&p) that he listed for $9850 a few days ago. it was gone within hours. i bought one in August '15 (after selling mine in 2013) that I believe is in better condition for ~$7k from a coin dealer in Canada. outside of a Daytona 62xx, this is my favorite watch Rolex has ever made. acrylic crystal, high beat movt, incredibly aesthetically pleasing dial, and solid bracelet. a true transitional.

[harry in montreal]

The modern Tudor chronos with green or red dials are still cheAp at less thank 2 grand. The Gmts and Tudor subs are going up. 76100s are still reasonable

[Karbo]

I see everything going up :
1675
DRSD
1680 red
1016 !!
5513 Maxi
5513/12 gilt
6263

I wonder why the 1665 is flat ;((

[Swearengen]

I agree on 1675s going up. I bought a radial dial 1675 last year (no B&P) and one (no B&P) was sold on here for nearly 50% more a few months ago!

The red 1680s seems to have moved up a fraction in comparison. I suppose the 1675s were starting from a lower base in general.

Originally Posted by jfmiii

GMTs are stil hot hot hot. Jacek had a 16750 in really nice original condition (no b&p) that he listed for $9850 a few days ago. it was gone within hours. i bought one in August '15 (after selling mine in 2013) that I believe is in better condition for ~$7k from a coin dealer in Canada. outside of a Daytona 62xx, this is my favorite watch Rolex has ever made. acrylic crystal, high beat movt, incredibly aesthetically pleasing dial, and solid bracelet. a true transitional.

[gery82]

With all that said, would you guys say to acquire an 80s 5513 submariner within the budget of 4-5k euro is realistic?

[droptopman]

Originally Posted by gery82

With all that said, would you guys say to acquire an 80s 5513 submariner within the budget of 4-5k euro is realistic?

Yes, but in that range a white gold surrounds dials--post 1983 or so.
The matte Maxi's are pulling a premium these days.

[gery82]

Thanks droptopman, so no way I could catch a matte dial within that price range?😔


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[gery82]

Thanks droptopman, though that makes me sad...

[droptopman]

Sorry mate. You might get lucky and find a decent matte in that range. Good luck and happy hunting.

[Daytona2016]

Originally Posted by dexvd

From what I've seen the market has shifted to focus price growth and big money on those 'auction watches' with perfect condition, with almost unique but correct dials in terms of patina or condition or slight difference and provenance.

I feel like the big money has moved on from the average 5513 or 1675 and are more into getting 'perfect' or super rare pieces to add to their collection of safe queens that they seem to hold for a while and then flip again at another big auction a few years down the road. I've noticed an increase in pieces mentioned in auction reports have history of pricing at past auctions, which makes me feel that the big money high profile auctions are starting to have more and more of the same watches repeatedly listed.

I feel like for wearable condition Rolex vintage, like it seems the majority of the enthusiasts/collectors in this forum are more interested in, the prices of been stagnant for a while, which is great for those of us that are just looking to wear great vintage Rolex pieces or get into the hobby but bad for those of us who may have tried to speculate and buy pieces hoping to make a profit on the resale a couple years later.

Well put...

[ADINVA]

Reversing our queries?

Any particular vintage has decrease in value in recent months?

[modee]

When we buy, we want the prices to drop, when we sell....

[waspy1]

Originally Posted by ADINVA

Reversing our queries?



Any particular vintage has decrease in value in recent months?

Some comex models. Poor condition of anything seems to struggle.


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[ADINVA]

Someone mentioned that run in a mill will always have controlled increment. The pristine prices are having valuations above the roof. Vintage is such an expensive hobby.

[seattleal]

Originally Posted by droptopman

...................With the internet the "barn yard" finds are almost impossible to source anymore. Cars or watches........

But they are still out there. I found this one on another (non-Rolex) forum last year for 7K. (pic is post ABC service)-

[anirudh.412]

The ed whites have reached crazy prices in the past few months and the snowflakes (especially with clean dials) are slowly creeping up as well. Not too long ago MN Snowflakes were sold for 10-12k. Now you see the normal ones being sold for 8-9k USD.

[speedolex]

I believe there is a predictable, cyclical cadence to the vintage market, goes something like this:

Every 30 years a new generation of vintage buyers appears and the older generation disappears. If the prime buying years are between ages 35-65, then you pick a watch decade, hit the mean, and do some math.

1960's watches, become hot vintage collectibles for those turning 35 in 2000 and will become very scarce by 2015 (all bought up) and won't rebound until those buyers turn 65 in 2030 (retirement or death).

1970's watches, become hot vintage collectibles for those turning 35 in 2010 and will become very scarce by 2025 (all bought up) and won't rebound until those buyers turn 65 in 2040 (retirement or death).

...and so on. There is a finite supply of these watches, and for those who aren't flippers or making a living out of the hobby they stick in a collection for decades and only become available again when someone needs money in older age and/or the descendants cash-out dad's estate.