Asian Watch Market Collapse

[rwolfhaus123]

Think there is any validity to recent youtube rants stating the Asian watch market has collapsed and we're about to be flooded with grey market overstock?

[Kryptofresh]

Swiss watch exports have declined by 9.5% over the first four months of the year. What are your thoughts on the recent used luxury watch market? with big declines coming from China and Japan.

[reloxt]

No

[Muzz]

Lol, no where near close that I can see. The market is hot for Rolex.

[azguy]

It's a sh&t show in southeast Asia, economic collapse is imminent IMHO

[KarlS]

Plenty of threads on this and recent. Last one was about a soft market.

[77T]

I am not a prophet of doom, nor agree with those rants, but I sense a luxury watch market bubble as we see macro economic issues building.
Central banks worldwide seem to be holding rates down, and some banks have negative rates, so growth could stagnate which caps the buy side on luxury goods by the broader middle class.
I'm no expert but the signs are prevalent IMHO.

[GoingPlaces]

It's here and still coming.

[Old Expat Beast]

Two very similar simultaneous threads merged

[ajas]

There are still waitng lists for rolex in singapore and rolex ADs are located every 200 m on orchard street. So far have not seen any decline in demand.

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by 77T

I am not a prophet of doom, nor agree with those rants, but I sense a luxury watch market bubble as we see macro economic issues building.
Central banks worldwide seem to be holding rates down, and some banks have negative rates, so growth could stagnate which caps the buy side on luxury goods by the broader middle class.
I'm no expert but the signs are prevalent IMHO.

100 percent agree. A collapse that will make 2008 seem like child's play is coming. Soon. China is overwhelmed by unpayable debt. Borrowing to pay back borrowing. States too.

[MonBK]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

100 percent agree. A collapse that will make 2008 seem like child's play is coming. Soon. China is overwhelmed by unpayable debt. Borrowing to pay back borrowing. States too.

Great, can't wait for it.

[lig]

Maybe I can get a 6263 after all. :)

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

100 percent agree. A collapse that will make 2008 seem like child's play is coming. Soon. China is overwhelmed by unpayable debt. Borrowing to pay back borrowing. States too.

If China suddenly needed it's liquidity to support its economy who is going to own US debt as they are the biggest creditor of the USA. I think the consequences would be severe

[RationalPragmatist]

It’s pretty easy to check grey market sites and see that discounts for major brands are creeping up; e.g. Omega, TAG, Breitlin are being sold at nearly 40% off. Lower tier brands like Frederique Constant are 60% off or more. As you would expect, brands like Patek & Rolex have far slimmer discounts.

Last night, I did watch this YouTube clown claim that Panerai is tanking but the discounts for those pieces are less than the big three I mentioned above.

Economic cycles aside, the brands need to set realistic prices to ensure there isn’t a huge delta between their dealers and grey market.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by KarlS

If China suddenly needed it's liquidity to support its economy who is going to own US debt as they are the biggest creditor of the USA. I think the consequences would be severe

Selling the debt would shoot themselves in the foot. Scaling back future purchases would cause them to lose one of the primary ways they control fx rates. US treasuries still offer a positive yield, the same cannot be said for most comparable securities.

China isn't using foreign reserves to help its economy directly, it's pushing out massive debt through state owned banks.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by rwolfhaus123

Think there is any validity to recent youtube rants stating the Asian watch market has collapsed and we're about to be flooded with grey market overstock?

Today if it was not for the grey market many watch brands would not sell all the watches they make.

[GB-man]

A cool down in the warch market would be healthy imho. I don't want an economic collapse of course but prices need to ebb and flow.

[77T]

Time to get some blockchain coins maybe?

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by KarlS

If China suddenly needed it's liquidity to support its economy who is going to own US debt as they are the biggest creditor of the USA. I think the consequences would be severe

Very.

[68camaro]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

100 percent agree. A collapse that will make 2008 seem like child's play is coming. Soon. China is overwhelmed by unpayable debt. Borrowing to pay back borrowing. States too.

Gaijin, since you are in Japan what are you seeing on the ground as it relates to "abenomics"?

Is Japan going to continue on the low rate/QE path especially since Toyko-Mitsubishi Bank quit role as primary dealer of Japenese bond?

[TheBluePrince]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

100 percent agree. A collapse that will make 2008 seem like child's play is coming. Soon. China is overwhelmed by unpayable debt. Borrowing to pay back borrowing. States too.

Completely agree, artificially low interest rates that stopped the inevitable global mortgage default collapse that should have happened in 2008 can't prop the world economy up forever. Side effect of low rates has been even more irresponsible borrowing and debt binge that people can't afford. It will all have to be paid back at some point.

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by 68camaro

Gaijin, since you are in Japan what are you seeing on the ground as it relates to "abenomics"?
Is Japan going to continue on the low rate/QE path especially since Toyko-Mitsubishi Bank quit role as primary dealer of Japenese bond?

To answer your question. Yes.

Well. Let's put it this way. I am making less now doing the exact same job that I was doing 30 years ago here. Back then on a late Friday or Saturday night you couldn't get a taxi home after last train. Every business man seemed to have a work paid taxi account, an expense account at a hostess bar ( or several) and a private golf club membership. Those days are gone.

Kids being recruited by companies while still in college. Incentives. Fighting over graduates. Now students are happy if they can get a full time job. The so called lost generation. 失われた10年

Wages are completely stagnant. People are hoarding any cash they have. Banks pay 0% interest. That being said you can get a home loan for 1% or less. Incredible!

There is absolutely no inflation. Prices just stay the same for years and years. The sales tax was raised from 8% to 10% to pay off debt and there was such a backlash from the populace that it was delayed in being implemented. Just prior to it taking effect there was a consumer spike. Since a downturn in consumer spending. I love Japan and it's my home away from home. I don't know what the answer is. The Japanese people work themselves literally to death. Karoushi. (Death from overwork.)

People jump in front of commuter trains here daily. Not weekly. Daily. Lost hope in this economy. I count my lucky stars every day to have a job here. The newest phenomenon is hikikimori ( the cave dwellers.) Kids that somewhere along the line during the brutally competitive educational process give up and refuse to leave their bedrooms. They have no hope of finding a job. They just give up. Parents bring them their meals and leave them outside their bedroom door. This has been going on for so long that many of them are adults with aging parents. The authorities worry how these kids will survive once their parents die. A few dreary documentaries on it online if anyone is interested.


Prime Minister Abe is doing the best he can. Japan has never recovered from their real estate/stock market bubble crash in the early 90s.

Same fundamentals that I see in China now. The Chinese are paying cash for properties here site unseen. Trying to get any wealth they have out before the inevitable crash. The tour buses here used to be packed with Chinese. The watch shops too. Not seeing that so much.

Sadly, I don't see Japan recovering. Neither do the Japanese. Sorry for the long winded post. I really only scratched the surface. Great country. Great people doing their best.

[Gaijin]

If China does implode... Watch out.



The last thing we will have to worry about will be the watch market in Asia.

[ref1655]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

100 percent agree. A collapse that will make 2008 seem like child's play is coming. Soon. China is overwhelmed by unpayable debt. Borrowing to pay back borrowing.

what comes around, goes around...keeping countries like China in check is a positive step for the world economy as they were starting to get a little too big for their britches.

next...oil-free independence from the Arab world.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by ref1655

what comes around, goes around...keeping countries like China in check is a positive step for the world economy as they were starting to get a little too big for their britches.

next...oil-free independence from the Arab world.

Agree on the oil-free point. A day will come and that is going to crush the Middle East.

[MonBK]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Agree on the oil-free point. A day will come and that is going to crush the Middle East.

That will teach them for hiding our oil under their sand.

[Kryptofresh]

So from all this, Shall we wait until prices decline more to buy our next rolex/luxury watch?

[lexconsult]

Swiss watch industry statistic report for 2015 and Jan of 2016 was published by watch-insider.com in March:

[rr-nyc]

Originally Posted by padi56

today if it was not for the grey market many watch brands would not sell all the watches they make.

+1