ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
1 January 2018, 07:25 AM | #1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: New York
Watch: me go broke!
Posts: 1,657
|
Why is 2018 going to be different?
In every “SS Watches are Nowhere to be Found” thread, I feel like at least 1/3 to 1/2 of the posters have a similar response; “just wait until 2018.”
Their playbook has been excellent, they’ve created more demand than ever and possibly the ultimate luxury brand on Earth, can anyone who feels that the display cases will be filled to brim in 2018 explain why they feel that way? I’m in the boat that says they’re going to let demand exceed supply again. A) It has worked like magic for them B) Exceeding demand will then curb it C) Exclusivity fuels demand |
1 January 2018, 08:20 AM | #2 |
Banned
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Up a tree
Posts: 4,001
|
You can't stop the rain...
You can't stem the tide... And you can't predict what Rolex will do... |
1 January 2018, 08:29 AM | #3 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2017
Real Name: Louis Nick Ric
Location: Michigan, USA
Watch: Blnr, Expll, Subs,
Posts: 10,172
|
So it makes sense while we scramble for and speculate on new product to buy the little elves are in their workshops churning out new little time machines for all, ready to open the floodates along with new pricing and sell all especially while the economy is hot. Just saying I see no sense on holding back any longer, the timing seems right for their end game.
|
1 January 2018, 08:32 AM | #4 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Sydney
Watch: 16523, 116610LV
Posts: 762
|
You think too much
|
2 January 2018, 05:57 AM | #5 | |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: New Mexico
Watch: Seiko #SRK050
Posts: 34,460
|
Quote:
As much as we collectively whine about how Rolex runs their business, if they ran it any other way, forums like this would not exist and Rolex would be just another Swiss luxury watch company. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
__________________
JJ Inaugural TRF $50 Watch Challenge Winner |
|
2 January 2018, 06:33 AM | #6 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
Real Name: Larry
Location: Kentucky
Watch: Yes
Posts: 35,047
|
We don't know that it will.
I think that there is a school of thought (which admittedly might be wishful thinking) that thinks the cases are going to be fuller after the new year, but who knows. |
2 January 2018, 07:48 AM | #7 |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Real Name: Joe
Location: New Mexico
Watch: Explorer
Posts: 12,840
|
Historically, rolex production slows down in q4 because everyone is on vacation. Once they get back to work in q1, the supply starts to creep back up.
I haven’t seen it this dry, so it’s probably a combination of vacations, rolex deliberately creating low suppply to drive up demand, and since 2017 was good financially for a lot of people, it’s driving up said demand. The perfect storm. In the mean time, there are lots of great watches on the second hand market. We will all survive, I promise!
__________________
It's Espresso, not Expresso. Coffee is not a train in Italy. -TRF Member 6982- |
2 January 2018, 07:54 AM | #8 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Real Name: Steven
Location: Glocal
Posts: 21,170
|
There's quite a bit of wealth sloshing around chasing limited resources of goods and services.
A big market crash or crisis of currency could change that.
__________________
__________________ ----> Was Great Seeing Everyone At The TRF December 9 Tampa Meetup <---- https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=968133 Love timepieces and want to become a Watchmaker? Rolex has a sensational school. www.RolexWatchmakingTrainingCenter.com/ Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
2 January 2018, 07:57 AM | #9 |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: USA
Watch: addiction issues
Posts: 37,355
|
Because that’s what my AD told me
__________________
|
2 January 2018, 09:15 AM | #10 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Feb 2010
Real Name: Neil
Location: UK
Watch: ing ships roll in
Posts: 59,369
|
Rolex have already told various ADs that supply will not be what it was last year anyway. Many countries have had over-demand and low supply for many months/years now, so surely those countries should be put back into balance first.
|
2 January 2018, 10:30 AM | #11 |
Banned
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Florida
Posts: 3,753
|
Plenty in Florida.
|
2 January 2018, 10:47 AM | #12 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 19,706
|
There will be spiffy new DateJust dials rolled out at Basel 2018
|
2 January 2018, 10:56 AM | #13 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: HND/SEA/CDG/AMS
Watch: Clock on my A330
Posts: 779
|
Rolex is not limiting supply on purpose as genius ploy to create even more demand. The demand has been record high because people have more money than ever (especially the middle class has grown worldwide, hence the demand for steel).
The Rolex brand is like no other brand. It’s an aspirational brand, meaning people buy it as a symbol of achievement or event in their lives, not just because it’s good horology. Also, if your brand’s reputation heavily relies on quality, and you are experiencing a surge in demand, you have to be extremely careful to not sacrifice that quality — and reputation. Rolex is not publicly traded and so receives no pressure to grow revenue YoY. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
Rolex stories you won't find anywhere else: https://coron.et |
2 January 2018, 11:04 AM | #14 |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Florida, Canada
Watch: Rol/Seik/Tud/Omega
Posts: 30,244
|
|
2 January 2018, 11:09 AM | #15 |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 78,089
|
Our local AD said they are increasing shipments to China and supply to North America will be limited next year ....... who knows.
|
2 January 2018, 11:10 AM | #16 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: California
Posts: 2,176
|
Quote:
|
|
2 January 2018, 11:14 AM | #17 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: San Francisco, CA
Watch: this space
Posts: 1,867
|
Quote:
I'm sure they'll figure out how to get by. "We'll bump you up the list if you buy a YG daydate..." Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
|
|
2 January 2018, 11:50 AM | #18 |
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2017
Real Name: Lee
Location: Kentucky
Watch: SWISS
Posts: 1,564
|
Too early to say at this point. I think we should have good feel for supply by mid February.
Also, a question for the group. “IF” we are in for a price increase, will that come with the first 2018 shipments or post Basel? Its been so long since we’ve had an increase I couldn’t remember the timing.
__________________
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference. -ROBERT FROST |
2 January 2018, 11:56 AM | #19 |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Florida, Canada
Watch: Rol/Seik/Tud/Omega
Posts: 30,244
|
|
2 January 2018, 11:57 AM | #20 |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 78,089
|
|
2 January 2018, 11:59 AM | #21 |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Florida, Canada
Watch: Rol/Seik/Tud/Omega
Posts: 30,244
|
I just feel that it's very poor form of Rolex to have commissioned people selling their product but not giving them much to work with. The ad's stand to lose some good people.
|
2 January 2018, 12:46 PM | #22 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: USA
Posts: 457
|
I, for one, am hoping availability gets no better in 2018, as I don't see Rolex upping supply, and the only way I see demand easing up is if there's some sort of financial meltdown.
|
2 January 2018, 02:19 PM | #23 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Real Name: Paul
Location: Wisconsin
Watch: Daytona C & DJ
Posts: 62
|
Only time will tell!
|
2 January 2018, 03:35 PM | #24 |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Vietnam
Watch: Rolex Sub - 16610
Posts: 246
|
A hypothetical question...
- assuming a return to "normal" supply by Rolex in 2018; what happens to price of 16710 in after-market ? Currently $9k gets you a good condition watch and nothing else - liklihood of something NEW? - will Rolex ever return to non-maxi case production for GMT and Subs, you think? |
2 January 2018, 03:48 PM | #25 |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Real Name: PaulG
Location: Georgia
Posts: 42,015
|
When the inventory of WG and Pt models equalizes, I do believe the demand for SS may normalize.
I don’t believe additional SS production (even if it were their plan to do so) will achieve it alone. For the time being, pre-owned is the best bet for SS seekers unless they want a Daytona 500 of course. Sent from my iPhoneX using Tapatalk
__________________
Does anyone really know what time it is? |
2 January 2018, 04:37 PM | #26 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Real Name: Marco
Location: Location,Location
Watch: Your Step
Posts: 277
|
I think we will see a lot of ADs close down some of their showrooms around the world. With little to no stock to display except DJs, how can they even cover the rent?
This will be the new normal, except in China where there will be new Rolex stores on every other corner. |
2 January 2018, 07:29 PM | #27 | |
Banned
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: hong kong
Posts: 214
|
Quote:
the shops because of lack of supply. |
|
2 January 2018, 09:56 PM | #28 |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: North Carolina
Watch: Rolex/Others
Posts: 47,776
|
I think that supply will come back in the second quarter of 2018. Post Basel. Only a very small percentage of folks are WIS and are up on the current market woes for Rolex and PP customers. Many will not search out the Grey Market. they will ask an AD what else they have and see AP, VC, JLC and others and make a purchase there. I believe that Rolex is playing a dangerous game with the customer base. A price increase, availability limited and no discussion from the company as to why, other than speculation on driving the grey market out of business and hyping the brand. I do believe that at some point a lot of fans throw up their hands and move on. I did it with Panersi years ago and currently only own one. Tread lightly Rolex, you are who you are because you make a great product and your customers are loyal. Much more of this game playing and I will move on.
|
2 January 2018, 10:47 PM | #29 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2011
Real Name: Har
Location: Tukwila, WA
Watch: Rolex
Posts: 1,571
|
Sorry in my part of the world, Rolex has increased the price and stock is still abysmal. So I guess demand is really driving the stock issues for now. Anyway, fingers crossed. Hope things will be better by February.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Rolex Go for the timepiece you love. You will save more. ... |
2 January 2018, 10:58 PM | #30 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Asia
Posts: 714
|
Quote:
IMO, with the way Rolex is doing, it's easier to drive AD rather than grey market dealer out of business. |
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.