Sudden incoming surplus

[ttechdoc]

Been following along for some time now. Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems like all of a sudden within the last week there have been an unusual amount of simultaneous incomings. Several appear to be surprises. Coincidence or has something changed?

[beshannon]

Welcome to the forum

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by ttechdoc

Been following along for some time now. Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems like all of a sudden within the last week there have been an unusual amount of simultaneous incomings. Several appear to be surprises. Coincidence or has something changed?

Good question. I was wondering the same thing. At this point, it's too early to tell if this is the start of a trend, or an anomalous coincidence. Nobody here knows, and any answers will be speculation. If this continues, and we start to see a more rapid filling of orders and - wonder of wonders - SS sports models actually sitting in AD cases, then in hindsight we might realize this was the beginning of an increase in supply.

To be continued.

[stylinleems]

Welcome to the forum!

I also have noticed an increase in the posts for incomings but as another member has stated, I believe it's to early to tell.

Hopefully though, it is a good sign more ADs are receiving more desirable pieces - and my orders can finally get filled lol =)

[watchwatcher]

Hey, welcome from a fellow KY member...right down the road from you, brother.

As for the incomings, it's hard to say. With so many active, participating members, there's going to be a few at any given time.

[Old Geezer]

Dropped by AD today to say “hi”. They were cataloging the shipment they received. Owner had the infamous list out and was preparing to make calls. Sitting on the desk spoken for was a SS BLRO, BLNR, white and black EXP2, Sub Date and a beautiful Cellini Moonphase.
Maybe, just maybe supply is starting to flow even if it’s just a trickle.

[peterpl]

Noticed this as well.

Honestly its great for new potential customers of Rolex. They always need new customers and new followers of the brand. Relying on aging people like us will limit their long term profits. LOL

[ColnagoC60]

On a FB group I’m part of, in the past week or so, 2 sports models were found in airport duty free. A GMT LN in Dubai airport and believe it or not, a SS Daytona in Bangkok Airport Rolex boutique. The guy who got the Daytona even posted a pic of the duty free receipt, and it was MSRP!

[WS9D]

There has seemed to be a number more incomings lately, but I wonder if it's also because TRF is growing, so more people are posting the incomings than before?

[penguinrolex]

Originally Posted by ttechdoc

Several appear to be surprises. Coincidence or has something changed?

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, if I finally get mine I'll say that something has changed lol

[G.D.BeanCounter]

It seems pretty consistent with my observations around this time last year, just before the holiday season drought. Time will tell, and it will not take long.

[Nikrnic]

Yes I've seen more new members as well. Hopefully Rolex is starting to catch up on shipments too. I just ordered a Blnr so maybe it will come to me by years end.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[DoctorA]

The prices of the BLRO going down and the white and black skyD are explained by all the incomings I think
Will see if that’s for the holidays or will rolex loosen the purse strings some!

[Ss22525]

I have bought ss black daytona 3 weeks ago and the AD offered me white and black skydweller and let me try 43mm sea dweller that was spoken for and offered to sell it to me if the customer didn’t want it , i have a small wrist so i said no.
Yesterday i visited another AD and tried Airking , then the salesman brought black sub date from the back that was not spoken for , but i didn’t buy it .

[Hodog16]

I think ADs are getting packages of a lot of desirable watches at the same time, so it makes for a lot of incomings - somebody posts a Daytona, somebody a BLNR, another a sub, etc etc. Whether the tide is turning is hard to say.

Meanwhile, stopped by a new AD today to kill some time, and it was one of the more depressing cases I've ever seen in my life. Basically 26 mm and 31 mm Datejusts. Guy said before the shortage they had BLNR and green subs sitting in the case with extras in the back and now they have nothing.

[BNA/LION]

Welcome to TRF... I mean nice to see you posting!

Might be more shipping out but I'm waiting for "The CALL" for a Pepsi GMT!

[SackLVG]

Keep an eye on grey prices, once the price on their pieces dip or constant bumping. You know the demand is slowly down.

[JonaG]

One probable consequence of a supply increase is that some waiting customers will be caught by how earlier-than-expected the call came in. Perhaps they’ve bought an interim piece or allocated funds elsewhere so the AD goes to the next person on the list. I’m not holding my breath for the BLNR yet however.

[Fat_ninja]

Im almost sure rolex has bi monthly shipments. Also remember the europeans were on holdiday so probably back from then

[peterpl]

Good thing is seeing prices on the decline for SS BLRO etc is a good good thing. It was getting to a stupid stupid level that is simply not maintainable long term.

Just like any bubble whether it be housing, stocks or in this case watches it will burst. Just wait until the global economy is in a bit of strife - you will see fire sales happening.

[Pops1973]

Sounds good let’s hope so

[ashbaug2]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Good thing is seeing prices on the decline for SS BLRO etc is a good good thing. It was getting to a stupid stupid level that is simply not maintainable long term.

Just like any bubble whether it be housing, stocks or in this case watches it will burst. Just wait until the global economy is in a bit of strife - you will see fire sales happening.

I am still seeing the BLRO in the $19-20k range, with one trusted seller at the $18.5k mark... Am I missing something here?

(Not calling you out, just curious as to the data... or maybe it's different definitions of declining price )

[exador]

Originally Posted by ashbaug2

I am still seeing the BLRO in the $19-20k range, with one trusted seller at the $18.5k mark... Am I missing something here?

There’s one on Chrono24 for $16.5k. Another 15 in the $17k range.

[R!$]

You would be surprised with the availability of these watches

Do you really think it takes more time to craft a SS watch over Gold or Platinum?

[ashbaug2]

Originally Posted by exador

There’s one on Chrono24 for $16.5k. Another 15 in the $17k range.

Are those legit ads? A lot of the BLRO ads on Chrono24 don't actually have the watch on hand and can "source" it for the buyer at that price. I think that may be why some prices are going down. But looking at the DavidSW and OCRolexGuy, they are selling them for $19.5k and $18.5k, respectively. Their prices have not changed since the craziness started.

Honestly, I can't wait for the prices to go down, though, or for inventory to become available at ADs. I'm on a list for one, and I would gladly throw down MSRP for it, if given the opportunity.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by BNA/LION

Welcome to TRF... I mean nice to see you posting!

Might be more shipping out but I'm waiting for "The CALL" for a Pepsi GMT!

Me and you both

[VerticalHorizon]

Originally Posted by ashbaug2

Are those legit ads? A lot of the BLRO ads on Chrono24 don't actually have the watch on hand and can "source" it for the buyer at that price. I think that may be why some prices are going down. But looking at the DavidSW and OCRolexGuy, they are selling them for $19.5k and $18.5k, respectively. Their prices have not changed since the craziness started.

Honestly, I can't wait for the prices to go down, though, or for inventory to become available at ADs. I'm on a list for one, and I would gladly throw down MSRP for it, if given the opportunity.

Keep in mind - those are only asking prices.
The resell market is dynamic and the spread between asking and actual selling prices are most often never disclosed.

Resellers can ask whatever they want and hold on to the hope of the prices staying put, but ultimately prices are dictated by the actual sale.

[AK797]

I don't know, just read about a guy here who can't even get on a DJ41 list so...

[ashbaug2]

Originally Posted by VerticalHorizon

Keep in mind - those are only asking prices.
The resell market is dynamic and the spread between asking and actual selling prices are most often never disclosed.

Resellers can ask whatever they want and hold on to the hope of the prices staying put, but ultimately prices are dictated by the actual sale.

You're most likely true, but you said it yourself, that those final sales prices are not typically disclosed. All I see is all of those sellers are still listing them for the same price they were 3 months ago, right after the initial $21,000 craziness subsided.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by VerticalHorizon

Keep in mind - those are only asking prices.
The resell market is dynamic and the spread between asking and actual selling prices are most often never disclosed.

Resellers can ask whatever they want and hold on to the hope of the prices staying put, but ultimately prices are dictated by the actual sale.

You're right that they're just asking prices. However, they can't be too far out of whack with what the market will bear, or people won't even bother making offers. When supply loosens up enough, the asking prices will come down. There might be a lag between increased availability and price adjustment, but they won't stay so high indefinitely if the watches become easier to obtain at lower prices.