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Fedpete · 12 January 2019, 12:55 AM

Hey Guys—

This is a WWYD question.

I remember years ago reading the article from HODINKEE with Clymer and Mayer gushing about the 116500 and John saying that he could see them selling for 30k one day.

It’s sad to say, but at 22k bnib he’s not far off.

With that said do I attempt to wait and play the “I’m on a list” game with some ads and run the risk of potentially never seeing one or do I cut my losses now and suck it up and buy grey?

This is the grail watch, pass down to the kid piece. I am afraid if I wait any longer it will reach the inaccessible point for me and three years down the road when I still don’t have it grey will be around 30k.

Love and respect all your thoughts.

Thank you guys.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SLS · 12 January 2019, 01:02 AM

What kind of relationship do you have with your AD? What type of wait have your been told to expect?

JayHantz · 12 January 2019, 01:05 AM

As most of the answers start on here, it depends...

How is your relationship with your AD, if any? Do you have any "high spender" friends with a history at an AD that could potentially help you? The waiting list average is 3-4 years out here in Colorado and all lists are fluid, you are never a hard number.

The grey market price increase is subjective on the person. If you feel like paying ~$20k and that is no hair off your back then you get the watch you want and it can be on your wrist tomorrow. If you're fine waiting and an AD can get you the Daytona in two years or less, then maybe wait for it.

Either way, best of luck to you and I hope you can get one sooner rather than later.

viper · 12 January 2019, 01:08 AM

It could be 5yrs or longer from an AD. If you can comfortably afford it, live for today. Only you can put the real value on it, it's a gut feeling you wont need to question.

k1985 · 12 January 2019, 01:22 AM

I think a 3 year+ wait is basically them saying you will never get it. That said, if you have patience and develop some purchase history and relationship with an AD, I think these things are attainable.

That being said, I am impatient and have paid the premium in the past

ROLEXster · 12 January 2019, 01:27 AM

Someone locally asked $32K CAD for a used 500C.
I just said no thanks.

Rather spend $32K CAD for a white gold on OF new from AD (+taxes).

Locust · 12 January 2019, 01:31 AM

Agree. If you can’t get one from an AD (never know until you go talk to them) I would 100% do the silver white gold oyster flex before spending an extra 10k grey.

DESH · 12 January 2019, 01:34 AM

my personal advise, build a relationship with your AD.

Pay retail and buy both

Fat_ninja · 12 January 2019, 01:40 AM

Its just a watch...a nice hot watch but im sure the kid wouldnt mind cash. Dont play the game. If you can wait, wait.

fett1972 · 12 January 2019, 01:47 AM

If buying the white dial at grey prices buy the 116519 at retail instead. I just purchased the White Dial and bought the 116519 last month. The WG OF is superior in my opinion.

Kyle3130 · 12 January 2019, 01:47 AM

There are a few BNIB examples from trusted sellers here for under $20K. If I were you and knew I was going to pass the watch on to my kids, I would pay the $4-5K premium. You will have the one you want and your kids will see you wearing it. Those memories are what it’s all about. If you can afford a few $K premium now, the value should be well over what you paid by the time you pass it down.

AK797 · 12 January 2019, 02:12 AM

If you think Mayer is the WIS Buffet then you've nothing to lose going grey.

padi56 · 12 January 2019, 02:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Hey Guys—

This is a WWYD question.

I remember years ago reading the article from HODINKEE with Clymer and Mayer gushing about the 116500 and John saying that he could see them selling for 30k one day.

It’s sad to say, but at 22k bnib he’s not far off.

With that said do I attempt to wait and play the “I’m on a list” game with some ads and run the risk of potentially never seeing one or do I cut my losses now and suck it up and buy grey?

This is the grail watch, pass down to the kid piece. I am afraid if I wait any longer it will reach the inaccessible point for me and three years down the road when I still don’t have it grey will be around 30k.

Love and respect all your thoughts.

Thank you guys.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

While some on the net like HODINKEE advertise these crazy prices and then on the various forums people advertise what the greys are charging.Afraid now we have a new breed of Rolex buyer who just buys and flip for profit.On the grey market there are virtuary hundreds of them for sale all the so called hard to get models,afraid the WIS type today has made a rod for his/her own back.

ap1 · 12 January 2019, 02:35 AM

Sounds like a buy now for you. Stinks.

watchwatcher · 12 January 2019, 02:42 AM

It's really not as much of a dilemma as you're thinking. If you just suck it up and pay the going rate, find a nice pre-owned example in good shape, then you're probably not going to lose money. At least in the foreseeable future, and of course, barring an economic downturn.

I went this exact route in the summer. Just traded it in for a grail recently, and did well.

If going the AD route, I would go in with guns blazing and buy a 116519 (or whatever PM speaks to you and they can get you) to build up your relationship with the AD. I would much rather have the 519 than the 500...not even close for me. So, that's a win-win, you get a legitimate spot on the list and a hell of a nice watch to look at while you wait.

Most of the posts I read about the lack of availability with the Daytona make the mistake of thinking all they need to do is call up or visit the AD and boom, there's going to be a Daytona headed their way. Not even close. Good luck,

marc12 · 12 January 2019, 02:54 AM

would rather buy a YG sub for the same money and when the world ends melt it down for bartering with other nuclear families in the diaspora

envuks · 12 January 2019, 02:56 AM

I would buy a WG Daytona before I purchased a SS one at grey market prices

m j b · 12 January 2019, 03:03 AM

WG vote.

Also, buy it for you, not for the kids. They won't want/appreciate/wear it, and when the first service is due they'll chuck it in a drawer somewhere.

GB-man · 12 January 2019, 03:13 AM

Depends on your AD and the nature of your current status there. Also depends on your willingness to play the game. Whether or not paying over list will ruin the enjoyment for you. Your willingness to buy other rolex and sell them on your own can lower the barrier to entry but at the end of the day make sure its the watch you really want because in my opinion its just another rolex. No more special than a sub/gmt/explorer II

jb335 · 12 January 2019, 03:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marc12

would rather buy a YG sub for the same money and when the world ends melt it down for bartering with other nuclear families in the diaspora

ding ding ding.

These crazy high prices on some SS pieces makes PM a no-brainier for me. The fast run-up of SS prices over the last two years has not been seen in PM pieces. Big value buys in PM now when you compare them to SS prices now.

I can't wait for my incoming post soon......

brucethemanlee · 12 January 2019, 03:50 AM

I bought all mine at MSRP.

unfort no one knows where rolex prices will go

However, IF (and this is a BIG if), you forced me to choose one Rolex to buy on the grey market, I would have to choose Daytona white SS. I think long term - say like 25-30 years you will be ahead. However for the 1st 10 years you could see lots of ups and downs depending on the economy, politics, world events, etc, etc

fett1972 · 12 January 2019, 04:06 AM

Larry speaks sense

Quote:

Originally Posted by watchwatcher

It's really not as much of a dilemma as you're thinking. If you just suck it up and pay the going rate, find a nice pre-owned example in good shape, then you're probably not going to lose money. At least in the foreseeable future, and of course, barring an economic downturn.

I went this exact route in the summer. Just traded it in for a grail recently, and did well.

If going the AD route, I would go in with guns blazing and buy a 116519 (or whatever PM speaks to you and they can get you) to build up your relationship with the AD. I would much rather have the 519 than the 500...not even close for me. So, that's a win-win, you get a legitimate spot on the list and a hell of a nice watch to look at while you wait.

Most of the posts I read about the lack of availability with the Daytona make the mistake of thinking all they need to do is call up or visit the AD and boom, there's going to be a Daytona headed their way. Not even close. Good luck,

racer24 · 12 January 2019, 04:19 AM

here are your options:
1. build relationship with your AD by buying a PM rolex. you can sell the PM here on the forum. your place on the list will jump substantially after a PM purchase
2. buy grey
3 wait for few years and hoping/wishing your AD can get you one. But as someone mentioned above, that list is fluid, few year is a long time, if you don't do any business with your AD, chances are, your name will keep going down on that list.

personally, buying a 116519LN at MSRP is a thousand times better than a 116500 at 20K.

Old Geezer · 12 January 2019, 04:25 AM

If you are in a small market, I would try to build the relationship with a local AD and get it from them. Personally I choose not to pay going grey market premium. I can see 5% or even 10% premium on any hard to get item but 70% IMO is out of the question.
I think if you are in a large market, the competition is fierce and the lists are meaningless so grey or pre-owned from a private party may be your only viable option.

jb335 · 12 January 2019, 04:51 AM

Personally, I could never pay that much of a premium (22K is a 10K premium) on a piece still in the current lineup. It would bother me.

LooseCann0n · 13 January 2019, 11:09 PM

In the same position too, albeit in UK.
Am considering the following strategy:

Buy the one I want -white dial DaytonaC from grey dealer - currently around £17-19k.
Put myself down on a list (or 5!) with an AD with a wait of 1-5yrs
Enjoy my premium prices watch
If/when the AD watch comes up at £9500 (plus any increases) buy this.
Sell used grey watch for around same price £17-19k (plus hopefully some increase)
That way overall cost will be MRSP, albeit with opportunity cost with my original outlay. I am happy with tying up my £17k for the foreseeable...

Does anyone see any flaws with this strategy, bearing in mind I am new to this game (previously an Omega enthusiast)?

Fedpete · 14 January 2019, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LooseCann0n

In the same position too, albeit in UK.
Am considering the following strategy:

Buy the one I want -white dial DaytonaC from grey dealer - currently around £17-19k.
Put myself down on a list (or 5!) with an AD with a wait of 1-5yrs
Enjoy my premium prices watch
If/when the AD watch comes up at £9500 (plus any increases) buy this.
Sell used grey watch for around same price £17-19k (plus hopefully some increase)
That way overall cost will be MRSP, albeit with opportunity cost with my original outlay. I am happy with tying up my £17k for the foreseeable...

Does anyone see any flaws with this strategy, bearing in mind I am new to this game (previously an Omega enthusiast)?

If you can float the cash it sounds like a great idea.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

avega357 · 14 January 2019, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LooseCann0n

In the same position too, albeit in UK.
Am considering the following strategy:

Buy the one I want -white dial DaytonaC from grey dealer - currently around £17-19k.
Put myself down on a list (or 5!) with an AD with a wait of 1-5yrs
Enjoy my premium prices watch
If/when the AD watch comes up at £9500 (plus any increases) buy this.
Sell used grey watch for around same price £17-19k (plus hopefully some increase)
That way overall cost will be MRSP, albeit with opportunity cost with my original outlay. I am happy with tying up my £17k for the foreseeable...

Does anyone see any flaws with this strategy, bearing in mind I am new to this game (previously an Omega enthusiast)?

I think it is smart,you can even get a different dial color and choose the one you want to sell

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

inadeje · 14 January 2019, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by envuks

I would buy a WG Daytona before I purchased a SS one at grey market prices

Exactly my opinion

inadeje · 14 January 2019, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LooseCann0n

In the same position too, albeit in UK.
Am considering the following strategy:

Buy the one I want -white dial DaytonaC from grey dealer - currently around £17-19k.
Put myself down on a list (or 5!) with an AD with a wait of 1-5yrs
Enjoy my premium prices watch
If/when the AD watch comes up at £9500 (plus any increases) buy this.
Sell used grey watch for around same price £17-19k (plus hopefully some increase)
That way overall cost will be MRSP, albeit with opportunity cost with my original outlay. I am happy with tying up my £17k for the foreseeable...

Does anyone see any flaws with this strategy, bearing in mind I am new to this game (previously an Omega enthusiast)?

Yes, just one flaw. We on this board have convinced ourselves that SS rolexs will always be at these prices. Many will be in for a surprise. All bubbles burst.

12 January 2019, 12:55 AM	#1
Fedpete "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: usa Posts: 747	116500 dilemma Hey Guys— This is a WWYD question. I remember years ago reading the article from HODINKEE with Clymer and Mayer gushing about the 116500 and John saying that he could see them selling for 30k one day. It’s sad to say, but at 22k bnib he’s not far off. With that said do I attempt to wait and play the “I’m on a list” game with some ads and run the risk of potentially never seeing one or do I cut my losses now and suck it up and buy grey? This is the grail watch, pass down to the kid piece. I am afraid if I wait any longer it will reach the inaccessible point for me and three years down the road when I still don’t have it grey will be around 30k. Love and respect all your thoughts. Thank you guys. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

12 January 2019, 01:02 AM	#2
SLS "TRF" Member Join Date: Aug 2006 Real Name: Scott Location: GMT -7 Watch: GMT's & Sub's Posts: 10,401	What kind of relationship do you have with your AD? What type of wait have your been told to expect? __________________ "The bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of lower price is forgotten." -Benjamin Franklin Member No. 922

12 January 2019, 01:08 AM	#4
viper "TRF" Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Northeast Posts: 943	It could be 5yrs or longer from an AD. If you can comfortably afford it, live for today. Only you can put the real value on it, it's a gut feeling you wont need to question. __________________ 16610LV 16200 116600 116500

12 January 2019, 01:34 AM	#8
DESH "TRF" Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Real Name: Desh Location: in a car driving Watch: ing the numbers.. Posts: 1,223	my personal advise, build a relationship with your AD. Pay retail and buy both Attached Images __________________ Instagram: wristkink

12 January 2019, 01:47 AM	#11
Kyle3130 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Aug 2013 Location: Oklahoma Posts: 1,960	There are a few BNIB examples from trusted sellers here for under $20K. If I were you and knew I was going to pass the watch on to my kids, I would pay the $4-5K premium. You will have the one you want and your kids will see you wearing it. Those memories are what it’s all about. If you can afford a few $K premium now, the value should be well over what you paid by the time you pass it down. __________________

12 January 2019, 01:05 AM	#3
JayHantz 2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member Join Date: Jun 2018 Real Name: Jonathan Location: Texas Watch: @Escapementt Posts: 9,844	As most of the answers start on here, it depends... How is your relationship with your AD, if any? Do you have any "high spender" friends with a history at an AD that could potentially help you? The waiting list average is 3-4 years out here in Colorado and all lists are fluid, you are never a hard number. The grey market price increase is subjective on the person. If you feel like paying ~$20k and that is no hair off your back then you get the watch you want and it can be on your wrist tomorrow. If you're fine waiting and an AD can get you the Daytona in two years or less, then maybe wait for it. Either way, best of luck to you and I hope you can get one sooner rather than later.

12 January 2019, 01:22 AM	#5
k1985 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Feb 2018 Location: X Posts: 170	I think a 3 year+ wait is basically them saying you will never get it. That said, if you have patience and develop some purchase history and relationship with an AD, I think these things are attainable. That being said, I am impatient and have paid the premium in the past

12 January 2019, 01:27 AM	#6
ROLEXster "TRF" Member Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Vancouver, BC Watch: is on BS wait list Posts: 990	Someone locally asked $32K CAD for a used 500C. I just said no thanks. Rather spend $32K CAD for a white gold on OF new from AD (+taxes).

12 January 2019, 01:31 AM	#7
Locust "TRF" Member Join Date: Sep 2012 Real Name: Mike Location: Usa Watch: All Posts: 1,422	Agree. If you can’t get one from an AD (never know until you go talk to them) I would 100% do the silver white gold oyster flex before spending an extra 10k grey.

12 January 2019, 01:40 AM	#9
Fat_ninja Banned Join Date: May 2018 Real Name: Jonathan Location: USA Watch: P-01 Posts: 11,772	Its just a watch...a nice hot watch but im sure the kid wouldnt mind cash. Dont play the game. If you can wait, wait.

12 January 2019, 01:47 AM	#10
fett1972 "TRF" Member Join Date: Sep 2018 Location: UK Posts: 95	If buying the white dial at grey prices buy the 116519 at retail instead. I just purchased the White Dial and bought the 116519 last month. The WG OF is superior in my opinion.

12 January 2019, 02:12 AM	#12
AK797 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Real Name: Neil Location: UK Watch: ing ships roll in Posts: 59,369	If you think Mayer is the WIS Buffet then you've nothing to lose going grey.

12 January 2019, 02:35 AM	#14
ap1 2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: usa Posts: 19,536	Sounds like a buy now for you. Stinks.

12 January 2019, 02:42 AM	#15
watchwatcher "TRF" Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Real Name: Larry Location: Kentucky Watch: Yes Posts: 35,044	It's really not as much of a dilemma as you're thinking. If you just suck it up and pay the going rate, find a nice pre-owned example in good shape, then you're probably not going to lose money. At least in the foreseeable future, and of course, barring an economic downturn. I went this exact route in the summer. Just traded it in for a grail recently, and did well. If going the AD route, I would go in with guns blazing and buy a 116519 (or whatever PM speaks to you and they can get you) to build up your relationship with the AD. I would much rather have the 519 than the 500...not even close for me. So, that's a win-win, you get a legitimate spot on the list and a hell of a nice watch to look at while you wait. Most of the posts I read about the lack of availability with the Daytona make the mistake of thinking all they need to do is call up or visit the AD and boom, there's going to be a Daytona headed their way. Not even close. Good luck,

12 January 2019, 02:54 AM	#16
marc12 Banned Join Date: Apr 2016 Real Name: Marc Location: NH Watch: Blue Steel SD Posts: 614	would rather buy a YG sub for the same money and when the world ends melt it down for bartering with other nuclear families in the diaspora

12 January 2019, 02:56 AM	#17
envuks 2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: New England Posts: 3,741	I would buy a WG Daytona before I purchased a SS one at grey market prices __________________ Current watches: 116718ln, 116500 black dial, 40mm Breitling Chronomat MOP dial “A man with one watch always knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure.”

12 January 2019, 03:03 AM	#18
m j b "TRF" Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Real Name: Michael Location: RTP, NC, USA Watch: ♕& Ω Posts: 5,215	WG vote. Also, buy it for you, not for the kids. They won't want/appreciate/wear it, and when the first service is due they'll chuck it in a drawer somewhere. __________________ Enjoy life - it has an expiration date. Disclaimer: Please note that the avatar is not an accurate representation of how I look. The camera adds 10 pounds...

12 January 2019, 03:13 AM	#19
GB-man 2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: USA Watch: addiction issues Posts: 37,355	Depends on your AD and the nature of your current status there. Also depends on your willingness to play the game. Whether or not paying over list will ruin the enjoyment for you. Your willingness to buy other rolex and sell them on your own can lower the barrier to entry but at the end of the day make sure its the watch you really want because in my opinion its just another rolex. No more special than a sub/gmt/explorer II __________________

12 January 2019, 03:50 AM	#21
brucethemanlee "TRF" Member Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: 1 of 13 Colonies Posts: 8,575	I bought all mine at MSRP. unfort no one knows where rolex prices will go However, IF (and this is a BIG if), you forced me to choose one Rolex to buy on the grey market, I would have to choose Daytona white SS. I think long term - say like 25-30 years you will be ahead. However for the 1st 10 years you could see lots of ups and downs depending on the economy, politics, world events, etc, etc

12 January 2019, 04:19 AM	#23
racer24 Banned Join Date: Jan 2017 Location: USA Watch: PP, AP, Rolex Posts: 352	here are your options: 1. build relationship with your AD by buying a PM rolex. you can sell the PM here on the forum. your place on the list will jump substantially after a PM purchase 2. buy grey 3 wait for few years and hoping/wishing your AD can get you one. But as someone mentioned above, that list is fluid, few year is a long time, if you don't do any business with your AD, chances are, your name will keep going down on that list. personally, buying a 116519LN at MSRP is a thousand times better than a 116500 at 20K.

12 January 2019, 04:25 AM	#24
Old Geezer "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2015 Location: South Carolina Posts: 5,282	If you are in a small market, I would try to build the relationship with a local AD and get it from them. Personally I choose not to pay going grey market premium. I can see 5% or even 10% premium on any hard to get item but 70% IMO is out of the question. I think if you are in a large market, the competition is fierce and the lists are meaningless so grey or pre-owned from a private party may be your only viable option.

12 January 2019, 04:51 AM	#25
jb335 2024 Pledge Member Join Date: Jan 2017 Location: The States Watch: Cosmograph Daytona Posts: 7,461	Personally, I could never pay that much of a premium (22K is a 10K premium) on a piece still in the current lineup. It would bother me.

13 January 2019, 11:09 PM	#26
LooseCann0n "TRF" Member Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: London, UK Watch: Daytona,Pepsi,SD4K Posts: 569	In the same position too, albeit in UK. Am considering the following strategy: Buy the one I want -white dial DaytonaC from grey dealer - currently around £17-19k. Put myself down on a list (or 5!) with an AD with a wait of 1-5yrs Enjoy my premium prices watch If/when the AD watch comes up at £9500 (plus any increases) buy this. Sell used grey watch for around same price £17-19k (plus hopefully some increase) That way overall cost will be MRSP, albeit with opportunity cost with my original outlay. I am happy with tying up my £17k for the foreseeable... Does anyone see any flaws with this strategy, bearing in mind I am new to this game (previously an Omega enthusiast)?

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