I'm back from self-imposed exlie, and what's happened to SS tool watch prices?

[alanc]

Hello all-

I bailed from this site back in early 2013 or thereabouts, because I was feeding the tuition monster and had no spare coin for my (2) relatively modest grails - a 1661oLV kermit; and a 16613 Blusey - and it was killing me. I did manage to snag a 16710 pepsi in late 2012 with some money that came in unexpectantly.

Now that my two daughters are both out of school, I though I'd jump back in. I'm sure I wasn't missed, as I barely made a blip here; I mostly just tried to learn from heads much wiser than mine.

Anyway, now that I'm back, imagine my shock to see that my GMT that I bought for under $6000 in excellent shape with box and papers in late 2012, has now at least doubled.

As for the Bluesy, they've gone from around $7000 when I last checked, to thelow teens.

As for the kermit, that seems the craziest of all - $6000 to mid teens!

What in God's name has happened in six years?

[ferrissteve11]

In short....global demand exceeded supply, and social media.

[~JJ]

Started in 2016, you will get 10,000 conspiracy stories of why, but no one really knows. Demand is up and production is stable.

[alanc]

Fiar enough, but these are 5-numeral SS watches that have been superseded. I would have thought that the Hulk would have eclipsed the Kermit, and that the 116613 would have eclipsed the old Blusey, especially since Rolex went back to the classic blue dial.

In fact, a quick check in the for-sale section seems to suggest that the Kermit is more desirable than the Hulk. Given the assumed obsession with big and new, I did not expect that at all.

[~JJ]

^ Everyone wants to be a collector and only value ($$) seems to be their passion. GMTs and LVs (due to 50th anniversary) are extremely desirable and have countless threads the past 3 years. Two tone has become more in fashion, but nowhere near SS levels.

[Equity]

It’s not just supply, the new bezels, the glidelock bracelet, movements and cases have added costs. Bluesy picked up solid gold links as well.

Add in some speculation and you get your newly heart breaking prices.


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[icnbne]

Im in the same boat, stopped buying watches in 2012, came back 6 years later to a much more expensive hobby lol..

[bonovox]

Originally Posted by ferrissteve11

In short....global demand exceeded supply, and social media.

+1. Social media has the herd in formation.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by alanc

Fiar enough, but these are 5-numeral SS watches that have been superseded. I would have thought that the Hulk would have eclipsed the Kermit, and that the 116613 would have eclipsed the old Blusey, especially since Rolex went back to the classic blue dial.

In fact, a quick check in the for-sale section seems to suggest that the Kermit is more desirable than the Hulk. Given the assumed obsession with big and new, I did not expect that at all.

Appreciation happened. 2012 was a market low for luxury goods. Have you been paying 0 attention for real?

[THC]

Everyone keeps hoping for a bubble burst, but I think this craziness is at least 5 more years

[peterpl]

Because of Social Media everyone wants to flex - even though they dont have the $$ to flex. LOL

Cheap 0% loans dont help. The youngsters only care about image and portraying something they are not.

[alanc]

Originally Posted by Etschell

Appreciation happened. 2012 was a market low for luxury goods. Have you been paying 0 attention for real?

As for as Rolex prices, yes. Did not have disposable income sufficient and so did not want to drive myself crazy. I'm glad I didn't pay attention, because six years of the apparent price inflation would have driven me crazy for sure!

[Equity]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Because of Social Media everyone wants to flex - even though they dont have the $$ to flex. LOL

Cheap 0% loans dont help. The youngsters only care about image and portraying something they are not.

Can see them a mile away!


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[smym18]

Social media was huge prior to 2017 though so I’m not sure how much effect that’s had on this market.

[brandrea]

You’ve entered the twilight zone Alan

[collarcity]

Rolex wants the exclusivity of Patek. This is not a bubble.

[Soultime]

Welcome back Alan.

As well as the price increases, don't be surprised at some of the posts/threads on here. It's gone a lot more social media'ish recently.
You may find you leave again soon.

[Dashford]

The watch market has completely imploded bar Professional Rolex, Royal Oak AP and steel Patek. People are no longer interested in buying overpriced Swatches or naff stock broker brands that should have died in the 80s. Because all the demand has poured into a handful of models, prices have gone up. Most watch brands are falling into terrible financial trouble and can’t use expensive marketing to puff up their brand identity. With the marketing gone, the people are picking the winners and the design icons are rising to the surface over the BS brand.

[alanc]

Originally Posted by Soultime

Welcome back Alan.

As well as the price increases, don't be surprised at some of the posts/threads on here. It's gone a lot more social media'ish recently.
You may find you leave again soon.

Thanks very much and I hope not!

[Norbert]

Look no further than posts on this forum for the reason there’s a shortage. Seems like every poster has 4-10 Rolexes! Used to be you had one and that was it.

[travisb]

Welcome to the madness.

[Boba Fett]

Brexit will change the watch market? Is this a joke?
I can't see a man in Singapore thinking "better not buy a Rolex, Brexit happened". The watch market is international and Europe isn't the most important market. The watch market will only change when the world economy changes and then this forum will be a much quieter place, dealers will have watches to buy and grey dealers will be going broke (boo hoo). That would have little to do with Brexit it would require something really significant like a major economy imploding.

[Rosex]

and all this while Bitcoin is down!

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by collarcity

Rolex wants the exclusivity of Patek. This is not a bubble.

Wanting wont make it so. It's difficult to be exclusive through ubiquity. Like it not, Rolex are everywhere and still pumping out a million + watches per year. Sure, many are very difficult to get right now, but many people still manage to get them from ADs every day all over the world.

"One doesn't simply walk into Mordor..."

[jvb.nc]

life was so easy (and a metric fuckton cheaper!) when i had one watch and had convinced myself that rolex was overpriced and that there was no need to own multiple watches.

the idea that i wore my breitling for seven years every day makes me laugh today. and i still love that watch.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Norbert

Look no further than posts on this forum for the reason there’s a shortage. Seems like every poster has 4-10 Rolexes! Used to be you had one and that was it.

They call it collecting but in reality many people are simply hoarding the watches. They have to have one of each in every color. They buy watches they do not even like or want just because they can from their volume purchasing at an AD. Each AD has numerous customers like this so there is no way they can maintain any stock or sell to new first time buyers. As the watches now do not depreciate, there is no end in sight to this.

[zaydans]

Originally Posted by Boba Fett

Brexit will change the watch market? Is this a joke?
I can't see a man in Singapore thinking "better not buy a Rolex, Brexit happened". The watch market is international and Europe isn't the most important market. The watch market will only change when the world economy changes and then this forum will be a much quieter place, dealers will have watches to buy and grey dealers will be going broke (boo hoo). That would have little to do with Brexit it would require something really significant like a major economy imploding.

No deal Brexit will cause an economic downturn for the UK that could then impact the global economy too (that’s reported by the governments own economic watchdog). Perhaps 6 to 8 months from now we see prices dropping as the demand starts to wane. The deal or no deal could be determined by end of October so who knows maybe that bubble will burst sooner than we think?

[mjclark32]

Welcome back and congrats on no more tuition!
Yeah, I remember not buying an LV because it was $500 more than the LN ($5,500 vs $5,000)

[sillo]

Originally Posted by Dashford

The watch market has completely imploded bar Professional Rolex, Royal Oak AP and steel Patek. People are no longer interested in buying overpriced Swatches or naff stock broker brands that should have died in the 80s. Because all the demand has poured into a handful of models, prices have gone up. Most watch brands are falling into terrible financial trouble and can’t use expensive marketing to puff up their brand identity. With the marketing gone, the people are picking the winners and the design icons are rising to the surface over the BS brand.

I think this is a point that's often overlooked too. Nobody is buying those random $1000-$3000 brand watches anymore.

[Brian Page]

welcome back...