Coronavirus dampen market?

[deansot53]

I am still on a waiting list for a new GMT and Daytona whichever becomes available.

Does the forum believe that with the economic downturn and stock market falling due to the coronavirus it will possibly lead to a slowing down on demand for the highly sort after professional models.

I know that the likes of China it has affected their economy and surely this must have an impact into the high end luxury market.

I would be interested to know if there has been signs of more availability of late?

[IndianRider]

Whatever happens, I don't think it will be any easier to get a Daytona. There have been many BLRO incomings this year, but I think it's still quite difficult.

[Likestheshiny]

After the 2008 recession, for a few years you could walk into a store and buy a Daytona. I suspect demand for that Daytona was a fair bit lower than the frenzy for the ceramic model, though.

I imagine the world economy would have to fall apart pretty significantly for a Daytona to be casually available. But, yeah, in a downturn everything should be relatively more available.

[2nastie]

There have been 12 open topics on this forum, I think there is one active one: https://www.rolexforums.com/showthre...ht=coronavirus

I suggest you start looking there.

I'm not going to make any medical references, but in the grand scheme of things for Rolex sports model, the answer is: No.

You might see other luxury goods take a hit but items with pre-existing long lists, high-demand items, etc. they should be able to weather the storm. The ones suffering would be the fringe goods (the commonly referred to as next best alternatives). Those were the ones who reaped the rewards because of how hot other items became but will also be the ones to suffer first.

The modern designed Daytona have been popular since 1988 (with only a small blimp before the much anticipated ceramic bezel arrived). The BLRO might see a cutback on the grey market but it won't suddenly pop back in stores or in shelves.

[bp1000]

When we had the 2008 crash watches were much easier to get right up until 2015/16

Daytona's and Black Dial Sub's have always been a waitlist thing since 2000s. But normally 1-6 months.

I'm fairly certain if we have another market crash it is certainly going to make it easier to get most pieces.

There are so many buyers that during prosperity buy things to outwardly show their success. Watches cars clothes holidays etc. Once markets have large amounts of uncertainty and credit dries up so does consumer spending.

They are already talking about cutting interest rates to keep cash flowing.

I'd say there's a high chance things will get easier for us collectors if what you say happens.

[Phooi]

Sadly, I think demand will cool somewhat for the overall SS market. I don’t think that the true “hard to get watches” — DaytonaC, blue SkyD and Pepsi will change much.

On the demand side, there are still too many people who can truly afford them even with this market uncertainty. On the supply side, I heard on a HODINKEE podcast a few weeks ago that Asia receives the majority of their watches in Dec-Jan in preparation for Chinese New Year in Feb. It is the equivalent of the holiday shopping season but for watches. Since they are the #1 market in the world for luxury watches, many of those pieces have already been allocated and are stuck in Asia due to the virus.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by bp1000

When we had the 2008 crash watches were much easier to get right up until 2015/16

Daytona's and Black Dial Sub's have always been a waitlist thing since 2000s. But normally 1-6 months.

I'm fairly certain if we have another market crash it is certainly going to make it easier to get most pieces.

There are so many buyers that during prosperity buy things to outwardly show their success. Watches cars clothes holidays etc. Once markets have large amounts of uncertainty and credit dries up so does consumer spending.

They are already talking about cutting interest rates to keep cash flowing.

I'd say there's a high chance things will get easier for us collectors if what you say happens.

Seems reasonable - I’m not seeing it yet AND no way a black dial sub and Daytona are on par with scarcity / lists

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by deansot53

Does the forum believe that with the economic downturn and stock market falling due to the coronavirus it will possibly lead to a slowing down on demand for the highly sort after professional models.

No

Buy online have it shipped

[DonRickles]

Pure speculation.

You could say the exact opposite.....How many will make a fortune, when the market climbs up and then look to buy....

[Rori]

Originally Posted by deansot53

I am still on a waiting list for a new GMT and Daytona whichever becomes available.



Does the forum believe that with the economic downturn and stock market falling due to the coronavirus it will possibly lead to a slowing down on demand for the highly sort after professional models.



I know that the likes of China it has affected their economy and surely this must have an impact into the high end luxury market.



I would be interested to know if there has been signs of more availability of late?

Incomings pattern show that it’s happening.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Aish]

I was in Hong Kong recently and there were signs of a dampening everywhere. I did try to go to all the Rolex and Patek boutiques to see what they had to offer and guess what NADA! Just Datejusts, and DDs the usual. When I asked them about the professional model they just politely said no.

Im guessing they are just stacking everything in the safe or are going thru their local lists which have ballooned to those crazy amounts. For everyone else nothing in the display, I can understand how hard it is for the whole world but again like someone pointed out with the demand being so strong its hardly going to have any effect. Just my 2 cents