How hard is it to get 15407st?

[Fishrus]

I'm looking to get a second AP sometime down the road in maybe a year or two. At first i was considering the 26315st but was thinking that the 15407st looks incredible.

I was quite lucky and managed to get a 15500st from the boutique as my first AP here in Singapore but that's the only purchase history i have so far.

Will the 15407st be impossible to get? Or should i just aim for the 26315st which seems abit easier to obtain.

[crack3rd]

Originally Posted by Fishrus

I'm looking to get a second AP sometime down the road in maybe a year or two. At first i was considering the 26315st but was thinking that the 15407st looks incredible.

I was quite lucky and managed to get a 15500st from the boutique as my first AP here in Singapore but that's the only purchase history i have so far.

Will the 15407st be impossible to get? Or should i just aim for the 26315st which seems abit easier to obtain.

Tbh, 15407st as your next watch is very hard. I dropped by the Singapore AD and was told that I have to buy “a complicated piece” to be allocated one. To my understanding, you need to spend over $100k+ to be allocated one. However, things might be different two years from now. You might be able to get it if it’s no longer a hot piece or you might get lucky and get offered one. Don’t worry too much and enjoy your 15500 right now.


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[Caramba]

Unfortunately I don’t know the answer to your question, but I’m wondering how long it took for you to get the 15500 and which color of the dial?


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[AshAP]

The above is correct, it’s unlikely but not unheard of to be allocated one as your 2nd watch. I think the wait for mine was around 2 years but at that point I’d been buying APs for around 14/15 years. At lot depends on your relationship tbh + they’re not going to hold the watch so if you don’t have spare funds when they call you then you’ll likely miss out. That could be particularly relevant post pandemic where a lot of wealthy AP clients on the list for a 15407 suddenly have second thoughts about spending 50k on a watch.


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[msm2]

I think the attitude is good to think down the road. I would put your name down and in a year or two might come available. Never know. Just do not expect it to instant. 26315st will be a lot easier to request.

[Benzsiam]

15407st will be a lot harder to acquire at Boutique/ADs.

26315st is not that hard to find, there are plenty available at Greys with little premium.

[chiscott_29]

I can't give any better advice than what you got above - A 15407ST seems like something to aim for 3+ years down the road, and that assumes you're buying something pretty much every year to keep the relationship "fresh". Even with this approach you're far from guaranteed one in this current market.

And herein lies the issue with AP. If you want to build the relationship you definitely need to be patient because so little is available immediately.

I feel AP has 3 "classes" of watches:

Group A: The readily available or short wait watches that have relatively poor secondary market value and often sell at a discount. This includes most ROCs, most steel/titanium Offshores, and maybe some of the 15450 models. Although the 15450 seems to be having a moment (and deservedly so).

Group B: Popular watches that sell on the secondary market for no premium or a small premium, but there is often a substantial wait of months or even years. This includes the 15500ST (black/gray/white), 26574 Steel Perpetual, boutique 38mm ROC, Ceramic Offshores, etc.

Group C: The very popular watches that are not obtainable without a substantial purchase history/relationship. This includes the 15500ST blue, 15407ST, the ceramic Perpetuals, and the most limited Offshores. I guess the Jumbo is in here too, but maybe that deserves its own Group!

To get to Group C, you have to get through Group A and Group B, and that can take a substantial amount of time and money. All the while, AP has to continue to want to sell to you.

If you love the brand, I personally think it's a very viable strategy and it is one that I am playing in hopes it pays off one day with a truly grail piece. I play because for the most part I feel AP will always have watches I desire that are in Group A and mostly Group B. But, I'm admittedly skeptical that it will pay off.

This said, don't at all be afraid to go secondary. I do both. I refuse to buy any more models through AP that don't hold at least 80% of their value (i.e., many in "Group A"), unless I truly love the watch. If I love the watch, the value retention can take a back seat. I am working on getting a couple of "Group B" watches. "Group C" are purely secondary market for me if I must have them now, but the premiums are so high that it instills in me the patience I need.

As a side note, I did take the plunge on "Group C" by getting my Jumbo on the secondary market. I personally have absolutely zero regrets. I am not sure I could do the same for a 15407ST because the premium is really lofty and much of that has happened over the past 12-18 months.

[jschmidtdmd]

I got mine only after buying a self winding concept lol

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I can't give any better advice than what you got above - A 15407ST seems like something to aim for 3+ years down the road, and that assumes you're buying something pretty much every year to keep the relationship "fresh". Even with this approach you're far from guaranteed one in this current market.

And herein lies the issue with AP. If you want to build the relationship you definitely need to be patient because so little is available immediately.

I feel AP has 3 "classes" of watches:

Group A: The readily available or short wait watches that have relatively poor secondary market value and often sell at a discount. This includes most ROCs, most steel/titanium Offshores, and maybe some of the 15450 models. Although the 15450 seems to be having a moment (and deservedly so).

Group B: Popular watches that sell on the secondary market for no premium or a small premium, but there is often a substantial wait of months or even years. This includes the 15500ST (black/gray/white), 26574 Steel Perpetual, boutique 38mm ROC, Ceramic Offshores, etc.

Group C: The very popular watches that are not obtainable without a substantial purchase history/relationship. This includes the 15500ST blue, 15407ST, the ceramic Perpetuals, and the most limited Offshores. I guess the Jumbo is in here too, but maybe that deserves its own Group!

To get to Group C, you have to get through Group A and Group B, and that can take a substantial amount of time and money. All the while, AP has to continue to want to sell to you.

If you love the brand, I personally think it's a very viable strategy and it is one that I am playing in hopes it pays off one day with a truly grail piece. I play because for the most part I feel AP will always have watches I desire that are in Group A and mostly Group B. But, I'm admittedly skeptical that it will pay off.

This said, don't at all be afraid to go secondary. I do both. I refuse to buy any more models through AP that don't hold at least 80% of their value (i.e., many in "Group A"), unless I truly love the watch. If I love the watch, the value retention can take a back seat. I am working on getting a couple of "Group B" watches. "Group C" are purely secondary market for me if I must have them now, but the premiums are so high that it instills in me the patience I need.

As a side note, I did take the plunge on "Group C" by getting my Jumbo on the secondary market. I personally have absolutely zero regrets. I am not sure I could do the same for a 15407ST because the premium is really lofty and much of that has happened over the past 12-18 months.

Good analysis, Scott. Thanks.

[HL65]

As stated above it would be extremely difficult to obtain these days especially. It was never easy but now probably out of reach for most.

[Fishrus]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I can't give any better advice than what you got above - A 15407ST seems like something to aim for 3+ years down the road, and that assumes you're buying something pretty much every year to keep the relationship "fresh". Even with this approach you're far from guaranteed one in this current market.

And herein lies the issue with AP. If you want to build the relationship you definitely need to be patient because so little is available immediately.

I feel AP has 3 "classes" of watches:

Group A: The readily available or short wait watches that have relatively poor secondary market value and often sell at a discount. This includes most ROCs, most steel/titanium Offshores, and maybe some of the 15450 models. Although the 15450 seems to be having a moment (and deservedly so).

Group B: Popular watches that sell on the secondary market for no premium or a small premium, but there is often a substantial wait of months or even years. This includes the 15500ST (black/gray/white), 26574 Steel Perpetual, boutique 38mm ROC, Ceramic Offshores, etc.

Group C: The very popular watches that are not obtainable without a substantial purchase history/relationship. This includes the 15500ST blue, 15407ST, the ceramic Perpetuals, and the most limited Offshores. I guess the Jumbo is in here too, but maybe that deserves its own Group!

To get to Group C, you have to get through Group A and Group B, and that can take a substantial amount of time and money. All the while, AP has to continue to want to sell to you.

If you love the brand, I personally think it's a very viable strategy and it is one that I am playing in hopes it pays off one day with a truly grail piece. I play because for the most part I feel AP will always have watches I desire that are in Group A and mostly Group B. But, I'm admittedly skeptical that it will pay off.

This said, don't at all be afraid to go secondary. I do both. I refuse to buy any more models through AP that don't hold at least 80% of their value (i.e., many in "Group A"), unless I truly love the watch. If I love the watch, the value retention can take a back seat. I am working on getting a couple of "Group B" watches. "Group C" are purely secondary market for me if I must have them now, but the premiums are so high that it instills in me the patience I need.

As a side note, I did take the plunge on "Group C" by getting my Jumbo on the secondary market. I personally have absolutely zero regrets. I am not sure I could do the same for a 15407ST because the premium is really lofty and much of that has happened over the past 12-18 months.

Thanks for the advice! So far group B has been keeping me really happy and I'm still in the honeymoon phase with my 15500(its been 2 months).

I don't think I'm at the stage in life/career where i think a group C suits me yet but am looking ahead for something to aim for. I've been blessed with a decent job earning decent money but i wouldnt be spending so much money yet especially after just buying the 15500.

The premium for the 15407st is pretty crazy at the moment so i don't think I'll go grey for it. I would rather get another piece at retail or even just get a Jumbo at grey prices.

I was wondering if its even possible to get in a waiting list for the 15407st even if its a 2-3 year wait as I'm in no hurry to get it but it seems from most of the responses it's gonna be pretty difficult.

Will talk to my SA when the shop reopens here since theres no harm asking. Thanks everyone for the advice too!

[Fishrus]

Originally Posted by Caramba

Unfortunately I don’t know the answer to your question, but I’m wondering how long it took for you to get the 15500 and which color of the dial?


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Took me about 10 months. Got the Grey Dail. Think the lockdown here sped things up though as they called me 2days before the lockdown. Seems like they were eager to clear some inventory.

[Fishrus]

Originally Posted by jschmidtdmd

I got mine only after buying a self winding concept lol

That's one fantastic watch. Don't think i can pull it off with my wrist size though if not that's another watch I'll defintely seriously consider.

[ragsk]

There are exceptions. One of the members here got a 15407ST as his first and only AP directly from the AP boutique.

I also know a guy who got a 15407ST as his second AP. He has since sold it. His first watch was a limited edition Chrono. Both were purchased directly from AP.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by ragsk

There are exceptions. One of the members here got a 15407ST as his first and only AP directly from the AP boutique.

I also know a guy who got a 15407ST as his second AP. He has since sold it. His first watch was a limited edition Chrono. Both were purchased directly from AP.

Do you know how long ago and which boutique?

[trfChris]

Originally Posted by jschmidtdmd

I got mine only after buying a self winding concept lol

Oh, very nice! Would love to see a wrist shot of the concept! Do you need a good relationship with AP in order to obtain that one, seems almost like an application piece?

[Collector2019]

Originally Posted by ragsk

There are exceptions. One of the members here got a 15407ST as his first and only AP directly from the AP boutique.

I also know a guy who got a 15407ST as his second AP. He has since sold it. His first watch was a limited edition Chrono. Both were purchased directly from AP.

That sounds like winning the lottery and far far from reality.

To OP: beside what has been stated above, communicate with your sales person, show your passion for the brand, participate in the marketing events and also get a watch or 2 every year, the 26315 is really nice piece and worth adding to your collection.

Good luck


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[crack3rd]

Originally Posted by ragsk

There are exceptions. One of the members here got a 15407ST as his first and only AP directly from the AP boutique.

I also know a guy who got a 15407ST as his second AP. He has since sold it. His first watch was a limited edition Chrono. Both were purchased directly from AP.

There are definitely exceptions; thats why both Ash and I didn’t day it’s impossible to get but rather hard to get. I also mentioned that the AD in Singapore is willing to sell 15407ST as a second piece if I were to buy a “complicated piece”, which I assume is an AP concept or something similar in pricing.


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[Collector2019]

Originally Posted by crack3rd

There are definitely exceptions; thats why both Ash and I didn’t day it’s impossible to get but rather hard to get. I also mentioned that the AD in Singapore is willing to sell 15407ST as a second piece if I were to buy a “complicated piece”, which I assume is an AP concept or something similar in pricing.


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Can you shed a light on the recipe that could lead to exceptions and therefore owning a skeleton piece ahead of time


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[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Collector2019

That sounds like winning the lottery and far far from reality.

To OP: beside what has been stated above, communicate with your sales person, show your passion for the brand, participate in the marketing events and also get a watch or 2 every year, the 26315 is really nice piece and worth adding to your collection.

Good luck


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Thats why I said they were exceptions.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by crack3rd

There are definitely exceptions; thats why both Ash and I didn’t day it’s impossible to get but rather hard to get. I also mentioned that the AD in Singapore is willing to sell 15407ST as a second piece if I were to buy a “complicated piece”, which I assume is an AP concept or something similar in pricing.


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I never said you guys are incorrect. It's a very hard to get watch for sure.

But there is hope. Its important to establish a good relationship etc. Some of it is down to luck as well. I too got lucky - asked for it and they kindly got one for me within a couple of months (in 2018). It was my third AP from this particular boutique - the two prior to that were not expensive watches. Since then I have bought 4 more. They know i'm a collector and not a flipper.

[Collector2019]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Thats why I said they were exceptions.

I agree but even if someone reports he got skeleton as his first foray into ap from the boutique, it’s not necessarily an accurate statement. It could be true but also it could be false, unless you know that person personally. If so, I’m one of many who’s truly intrigued in learning how...


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[crack3rd]

Originally Posted by Collector2019

Can you shed a light on the recipe that could lead to exceptions and therefore owning a skeleton piece ahead of time


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I would if I know the recipe but unfortunately I don’t. You can give it a try by buying a concept watch and see if they offer one like the sales associate told me at Singapore AD.


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[Collector2019]

Originally Posted by crack3rd

I would if I know the recipe but unfortunately I don’t. You can give it a try by buying a concept watch and see if they offer one like the sales associate told me at Singapore AD.


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Oh don’t get me wrong I’m not planning to go down that route. You got yours in 2 months, can you tell us before expressing interest in the openwork, what did you buy / was your purchase history?


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[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Collector2019

I agree but even if someone reports he got skeleton as his first foray into ap from the boutique, it’s not necessarily an accurate statement. It could be true but also it could be false, unless you know that person personally. If so, I’m one of many who’s truly intrigued in learning how...


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Both of the examples I gave are true. Ash and others on this forum all know about the member here who got it as his first and only AP. I have met him personally as well and seen his watch. So has Ash I believe.

The second example was a guy who I met on the AP factory tour and have since got to know very well. I sold him my car a few months ago! The 15407ST was his second AP for sure. The first was a 26331.

Anyway, it's very hard but feasible. I was merely giving hope to the OP. Never said it was the norm.

I also think the next 12-18 months will keep the greys partially at bay and bring more opportunity for genuine watch enthusiasts.

[crack3rd]

Originally Posted by Collector2019

Oh don’t get me wrong I’m not planning to go down that route. You got yours in 2 months, can you tell us before expressing interest in the openwork, what did you buy / was your purchase history?


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I think you misread it. I don’t have an openwork or any complicated pieces. I just started my watch collecting journey not too long ago and I know it is going to take time for me to get 15407ST or other hard to get pieces.


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[Collector2019]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Both of the examples I gave are true. Ash and others on this forum all know about the member here who got it as his first and only AP. I have met him personally as well and seen his watch. So has Ash I believe.

The second example was a guy who I met on the AP factory tour and have since got to know very well. I sold him my car a few months ago! The 15407ST was his second AP for sure. The first was a 26331.

Anyway, it's very hard but feasible. I was merely giving hope to the OP. Never said it was the norm.

I also think the next 12-18 months will keep the greys partially at bay and bring more opportunity for genuine watch enthusiasts.

I too hope so, thank you for elaborating


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[Collector2019]

Originally Posted by crack3rd

I think you misread it. I don’t have an openwork or any complicated pieces. I just started my watch collecting journey not too long ago and I know it is going to take time for me to get 15407ST or other hard to get pieces.


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Sorry I meant to cite someone else.


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[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Collector2019

I too hope so, thank you for elaborating


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Good luck!

It's a gorgeous watch for sure. Whenever I wear mine, it gets lots of attention and deservedly so.

[Collector2019]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Good luck!

It's a gorgeous watch for sure. Whenever I wear mine, it gets lots of attention and deservedly so.

If I ever get allocated one I doubt I will wear anything else, I will be staring at it 24/7


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