15407st vs 15305st im terms of value retention

[AP15407st_patrick]

Hi
I am a new member and was fortune enough to purchase a 15407st. As the purchase price for me of the watch was super high I am from time to time looking on Chrono24 just to see what’s happening with the watch in terms of its grey market prices. My initial idea when I bought it is that even when worn this piece is so high in demand it will always be sold above retail as it’s simple so difficult to get, production so low and the demand is always there for such a piece.
What seems to be happen now is that the 15407st prices especially on Chrono for a used model are falling down whereas the 15305st is selling although when used way above its retail. Is there a trend happening now that people are going for the 39mm Skelton and just skip the 15407st.
I quite remember the first articles in newspaper when Audemars said the 15407 was a success for them as a lot of collectors sold the 15305 to get this one.

What is your expecting in terms of future value development if you compare these nice pieces? Do you expect more people are going for the smaller watch.

Just to make sure I will not sell the 15407 I really love this piece but I would be glad to know what you think in a comparison of these two watches most likely could happen.
The 41mm for me never felt so huge like people might think when just looking at pics. My personal view is that if I already purchased a watch for 50k I want to see every detail and the 41mm seems to be the better size for such skeleton than the 39mm but that’s just my personal taste.

Thank you very much for your opinion

[Watchristic]

You have a great and exclusive watch enjoy it


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[SMD]

No idea. I was happy to get mine and have not looked back.

[chiscott_29]

I think you should enjoy your watch and forget about "resale value", especially if you attained it at MSRP. You have one of the most beautiful watches in existence :-)

That said, I think there's some observations here:

- The 37/38/39mm sizes are catching up price-wise to the 41mm models almost across the entire RO line. This isn't unique to the Skeletons in any way.

- The 15407ST has been on a hell of a run the past two years. This watch used to be had in the upper $60s and low to mid $70s back in 2017. Now, it's up to $90k from dealers on C24. It's unrealistic to go up much more if at all. It's an in-production watch and at these levels I'm not sure what you could expect other than some correction.

- While I wouldn't state this as "fact", it seems quite rare to see a private party sale of a 15407ST so it's hard to say what the true secondary market value is. C24 prices are notoriously manipulated by dealers so I wouldn't read too much into that single data point that prices are falling on that platform. If you saw classifieds on here or another source listing from private parties of the price falling, that would be much more concerning.

Just my .02.

[AP15407st_patrick]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I think you should enjoy your watch and forget about "resale value", especially if you attained it at MSRP. You have one of the most beautiful watches in existence :-)

That said, I think there's some observations here:

- The 37/38/39mm sizes are catching up price-wise to the 41mm models almost across the entire RO line. This isn't unique to the Skeletons in any way.

- The 15407ST has been on a hell of a run the past two years. This watch used to be had in the upper $60s and low to mid $70s back in 2017. Now, it's up to $90k from dealers on C24. It's unrealistic to go up much more if at all. It's an in-production watch and at these levels I'm not sure what you could expect other than some correction.

- While I wouldn't state this as "fact", it seems quite rare to see a private party sale of a 15407ST so it's hard to say what the true secondary market value is. C24 prices are notoriously manipulated by dealers so I wouldn't read too much into that single data point that prices are falling on that platform. If you saw classifieds on here or another source listing from private parties of the price falling, that would be much more concerning.

Just my .02.

thanks very kind for your comment. Its not that i am not happy with this watch. I truly love it but on the other hand i would feel way better if i know that the grey market price will not jump below MSRP. I know that most certainly Chrono24 prices should not be considered as fact but still i can see a trend which looks strange such as that the 15305St is heavily increasing also during the current financial situation whereas the 15407st seems to decrease especially when used. For me this is not super logical especially if i consider that the MSRP for the 15305 was way below the 15407st and now on the grey market that seem to reach similar price ranges (once you compare a used 15407st with a used 15305st) My concern was that now more people are going for the smaller watch although the double balance is from my perspective the better watch in terms of design, look and size

[yoast]

to be honest, I'd take the 305 over the 407 any day of the week. much better size, discontinued, and i prefer the aesthetics of the movement in one color instead of the double balance wheel in gold (too much contrast for me)

[rumnyc]

If you are looking from assurances from us that your watch will not go below the price you paid (msrp) then i am not sure what answer you really want as no one can assure you but say it looks unlikely at this point.

My advice to you is enjoy the great watch you have that 9 out of 10 here would jump into at the price you paid and never look back.

Having said that these are toys and i don’t buy any watches as more than an toy with questionable value retention. It helps me enjoy them for what they are without added pressure of value retention. In fact i think to myself, will i keep this watch indefinitely or is there another watch i want more that can happily take its place, and if there is that is the one i want the first time :)


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[SMD]

Sell now.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by SMD

Sell now.

I agree with SMD. Sell it to me as I'll gladly pay MSRP plus a small premium and you can stop worrying

[Reign]

Anyone’s view on future prices will be as good as someone else’s view on the stock market.

If it helps, there’ll be some new references in the 37 variant with the same movement which will further pressure the 15407 supply side. What happens after is anyone’s guess

[AP15407st_patrick]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I agree with SMD. Sell it to me as I'll gladly pay MSRP plus a small premium and you can stop worrying

That’s definitely not my intention. I could also change my question and ask if it’s worth to trade a 15407st for a 15305st if it’s important for you that your watch keeps its value. Of course nobody can predict the future that’s why I was more asking for you personal view and opinion.

[AP15407st_patrick]

Originally Posted by Reign

Anyone’s view on future prices will be as good as someone else’s view on the stock market.

If it helps, there’ll be some new references in the 37 variant with the same movement which will further pressure the 15407 supply side. What happens after is anyone’s guess

Thanks that’s very kind and a very valuable information. Are you maybe also aware of a planned 15407ce?
Thanks

[AP15407st_patrick]

Really appreciate your opinion and will also post some pics of my 15407 very soon

[Gravity]

[Plastique999]

Look at values today


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[Bearxj86]

My personal view is they are both going to do well in the long run. Here are some thoughts:

1) The double balance wheel is a unique feature of the 15407st and a standout.
2) The 39mm size makes the 15305 more wearable but no double balance.
3) I think the new version of the 41mm oaks will have more tapered and lighter bracelets.
4) New jumbo skeleton will also be here soon.

I think the 41mm will always do well as folks that like a larger skeleton will gravitate to it, but I can def see the 39mm jumbo skelleton commanding a premium followed by the 39 and 41 being of equal value depending on preference.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I agree with SMD. Sell it to me as I'll gladly pay MSRP plus a small premium and you can stop worrying

But to be clear. I think Chiscott stepped slightly out of line. I think what he meant to say was he’s only willing to pay the 2019 MSRP. Not the 2022 MSRP!

Seriously OP, I don’t think price will go below your MSRP unless nukes start flying.

[Plastique999]

Anyone know what 15305OR’s are going for these days ?


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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Plastique999

Anyone know what 15305OR’s are going for these days ?

Cheapest on C24 is $220k.15407OR is 50% more. Far out of my comfort zone.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

My personal view is they are both going to do well in the long run. Here are some thoughts:

1) The double balance wheel is a unique feature of the 15407st and a standout.
2) The 39mm size makes the 15305 more wearable but no double balance.
3) I think the new version of the 41mm oaks will have more tapered and lighter bracelets.
4) New jumbo skeleton will also be here soon.

I think the 41mm will always do well as folks that like a larger skeleton will gravitate to it, but I can def see the 39mm jumbo skelleton commanding a premium followed by the 39 and 41 being of equal value depending on preference.

All good points Jin, the only additional point, to my understanding is that production numbers on the 15305 were lower than the already low 15407 production. This is why you see less 15305s listed and I would anticipate that trend to continue into the future, supporting prices for both models.

My personal preference would be 15203pt/15204or skeleton with date wheel, that is the sweet spot for me and ultimate collectability in the AP skeleton lineage.

[inxs777]

Originally Posted by yoast

to be honest, i'd take the 305 over the 407 any day of the week. Much better size, discontinued, and i prefer the aesthetics of the movement in one color instead of the double balance wheel in gold (too much contrast for me)

+1

[TunaTuna]

Get out while you can my friend!

[theflywrist]

I don’t know which is better value, but I love my 15305.



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[ts3]

Originally Posted by yoast

to be honest, i'd take the 305 over the 407 any day of the week. Much better size, discontinued, and i prefer the aesthetics of the movement in one color instead of the double balance wheel in gold (too much contrast for me)

+2

[Plastique999]

Originally Posted by theflywrist

I don’t know which is better value, but I love my 15305.



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