Gold is getting very very hot.

[peterpl]

Guys,

Just wanted to put it out there but I've been into gold for a long long time now. I never bought into this SS Hype at all.

Whats funny is that now I am seeing gold Rolex's/APs/Pateks all soaring. I thought I was imagining this until I saw Eric's new video. The grays dealers I deal with have been telling me this also but more and more people are saying this now and then I just Erics video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxzC5hPE5TQ

I really hope the hype and craziness doesn't move into gold as it would make it just that much more expensive. I just bought a 116618LB for a very very good price but looking at prices now RG Skydwellers, DD40s and DD41s and full gold GMTs/Subs they are all increasing and they seem to be flying off the shelves.

Doesn't make sense to me where is all this money coming from? Just yesterday GDP down 33%. Thats crazy.

Oh well I'm just praying we dont see gold Rolex's at double MSRP. That would kill my wallet.

[watchdisplay]

Gold has always been my thing as well.


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[Polarexplorerii]

Yea I saw Eric’s video, and PM Rolex is out of my league anyway….

[cph81]

Price of gold is very high. Gold watch price may go up with the new watch on sept 1st

[Wcdhtwn]

I’ve been looking at AP RO Chronos on Chrono24, about a week, maybe two, ago prices jumped several thousand dollars.

[synrrgy]

Originally Posted by watchdisplay

Gold has always been my thing as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Love the Day Date in this pic, the dial is beautiful and Roman numerals go very well with it. Great collection you have there, the Cartier ring is money too!

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Guys,

Just wanted to put it out there but I've been into gold for a long long time now. I never bought into this SS Hype at all.

Whats funny is that now I am seeing gold Rolex's/APs/Pateks all soaring. I thought I was imagining this until I saw Eric's new video. The grays dealers I deal with have been telling me this also but more and more people are saying this now and then I just Erics video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxzC5hPE5TQ

I really hope the hype and craziness doesn't move into gold as it would make it just that much more expensive. I just bought a 116618LB for a very very good price but looking at prices now RG Skydwellers, DD40s and DD41s and full gold GMTs/Subs they are all increasing and they seem to be flying off the shelves.

Doesn't make sense to me where is all this money coming from? Just yesterday GDP down 33%. Thats crazy.

Oh well I'm just praying we dont see gold Rolex's at double MSRP. That would kill my wallet.

I think it's a number of factors going on.

1) The full power of the ROLEX brand is completely unleashed. The general public always thought a Rolex was more expensive than the SS steel pieces that used to populate dealer cases...and people would buy those as a "value"...but now that those aren't as available, the costs of TT and PM are aligned with expectations and there was little resistance to buyers just flat out spending more money. Then FOMO gets a grip and people just can't stand watching things escalate in price and getting left behind, so those buyers jump into the pool too...quite aggressively.

2) The PM AP and Patek are driven buy people looking to get even more exclusive and flex harder than Rolex..or have a differentiation of FLEX to show off. It's not surprising at all. Those brands practice fantastic brand management and will always be super tip top desireable.

3) There are some things about the "modern digital" economy that we don't fully understand yet. As Eric said, "There is money in the streets", but it isn't really clear where it is coming from...in some sectors (and not to marginalize those who are struggling), it's almost like nothing negative is happening at all. The trades (HVAC, Electrical Plumbing...etc) are still booming....Residential AND Commercial. No impact in demand felt at all. It's almost like a bizarro economy...the nubmers just don't connect all the dots..

I mean seeing some doosher Youtuber stumble into an AD and drop $100K on a Rolex tells me that the alternative sources of income via digital means are bearing some pretty ripe fruits..

[Kostas]

Love me some gold, but in terms of the gold content price vs the watches rrp is very different as you know ;)

[mykii]

Another factor is the Rolex boom has made some watch homies some quick money, and with the current "market price" on hot SS models (Pepsi $18k, Hulk $17.5k NIB etc.) one could easily toss a few more bucks in to get to PM.

[envuks]

When it comes to rolex demand continuing to explode. I think that most people aren’t going anywhere right now so travel and vacation budgets are getting repurposed. What better way than to get a new Rolex you can enjoy at home.


However, Gold as a commodity is up ~30% over the past 6 months. Gold has always been a liquid asset, cash convertible. Rolex seems to be perceived that way too these days. In uncertain times many people move cash or investments into commodities


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[jltait]

#shenanigans

I’m all about the pm bullion. Will pick up the pm watches once the Rolex bubble ends and gold is at $4k/ounce.

[MannySDG]

So if you think about it, Rolex can do no wrong. SS models are all hot, TT seems to be making a comeback and now PM pieces are flying off the shelves (except those 3 solid gold Rootbeers in the 3 AD's I frequent in my area). Must be great to be in such a position as a company. Wouldn't surprise me if they would now sell in the next few days after people watch Eric's video and run out looking for anything made out of Gold. Paul Thorpe also included it in his list of watches to buy and put away.

Interesting times.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I think it's a number of factors going on.

1) The full power of the ROLEX brand is completely unleashed. The general public always thought a Rolex was more expensive than the SS steel pieces that used to populate dealer cases...and people would buy those as a "value"...but now that those aren't as available, the costs of TT and PM are aligned with expectations and there was little resistance to buyers just flat out spending more money. Then FOMO gets a grip and people just can't stand watching things escalate in price and getting left behind, so those buyers jump into the pool too...quite aggressively.

2) The PM AP and Patek are driven buy people looking to get even more exclusive and flex harder than Rolex..or have a differentiation of FLEX to show off. It's not surprising at all. Those brands practice fantastic brand management and will always be super tip top desireable.

3) There are some things about the "modern digital" economy that we don't fully understand yet. As Eric said, "There is money in the streets", but it isn't really clear where it is coming from...in some sectors (and not to marginalize those who are struggling), it's almost like nothing negative is happening at all. The trades (HVAC, Electrical Plumbing...etc) are still booming....Residential AND Commercial. No impact in demand felt at all. It's almost like a bizarro economy...the nubmers just don't connect all the dots..

I mean seeing some doosher Youtuber stumble into an AD and drop $100K on a Rolex tells me that the alternative sources of income via digital means are bearing some pretty ripe fruits..

All valid points. I too have not suffered that greatly in all of this mess. I mean yeah my share portfolio took a massive hit but its pretty much all back now and even more. None of my real estate portfolio has seen anywhere near the drops that the doomers and gloomers were talking about and in all honestly Ive only had a single person ask for rental reductions.

In saying that though the pool of ppl not affected by coronavirus out of that pool it must be coincidence or absoute insanity that this small pool houses all the Rolex/AP/Patek buyers.

It simply cannot be the case. There are way too many ppl flexing on Instagram, facebook, tiktok etc....to all be in the percentile that have had 0 or minuscule affects by the virus monetarily.

I just find it amazing that during the worst ecoonimic times in recent history that luxury items and especially full gold Rolex's are flying off the shelves.

Even if I was a billionaire (which I am very very far away from being) dropping $30k on a watch is serious serious coin. Now I'm seeing SKyDs for $45k+ and PM RG Daytona's for $38-39k. DD40s in RG for $36-$38k

They were never these prices before in the Gray market. Before we know it all PMs will be over retail soon.

[mykii]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I just find it amazing that during the worst ecoonimic times in recent history that luxury items and especially full gold Rolex's are flying off the shelves.

Even if I was a billionaire (which I am very very far away from being) dropping $30k on a watch is serious serious coin. Now I'm seeing SKyDs for $45k+ and PM RG Daytona's for $38-39k. DD40s in RG for $36-$38k

They were never these prices before in the Gray market. Before we know it all PMs will be over retail soon.

I think the Gray Market dealers are actually profiting the most off of the PM boom (if it really exists, as I still see cabinets with PM in it at ADs). Think about it like this. If its all about the digital boom/youtubers/flexing/conspicuous consumption/influencing, which is very real and a definite echo chamber, then these same individuals are also more likely to buy on this medium (digital) and hence will go Gray and even pay a "markup" in some of these cases. Why go to an AD when, after watching your Youtube video, you can just open a tab and buy from DavidSW?

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by mykii

I think the Gray Market dealers are actually profiting the most off of the PM boom (if it really exists, as I still see cabinets with PM in it at ADs). Think about it like this. If its all about the digital boom/youtubers/flexing/conspicuous consumption/influencing, which is very real and a definite echo chamber, then these same individuals are also more likely to buy on this medium (digital) and hence will go Gray and even pay a "markup" in some of these cases. Why go to an AD when, after watching your Youtube video, you can just open a tab and buy from DavidSW?

Yeah the ADs near me still have some gold pieces but they are offering big 0% discounts. Grays in the past were the place to get 20-25% discounts but now they are almost MSRP or like 5% off only. Its crazy. If it keeps going PM will all be over retail as well which sucks for me and guys like me that only buy PM.

Yes I do agree all the buy now pay later companies like AfterPay and other financing companies are helping ppl to get into these full gold pieces. Thats a whole another discussion though.

I keep my eye on prices all the time because I'm always looking to buy my next piece. So I can see all the prices drifting higher and higher. Its just crazy.

[peterpl]

Maybe this is what is happening?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL85RiXmcZM

LOL

[Snake Plissken]

I doubt it has much to do with the price of gold itself and more to do with the fact that SS models are so rare that people are ponying up for gold just to have a Rolex/Patek. This is probably true more so for Patek/AP where some gold models still command a huge premium over retail.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Snake Plissken

I doubt it has much to do with the price of gold itself and more to do with the fact that SS models are so rare that people are ponying up for gold just to have a Rolex/Patek.

I dont think so. Someone in the game at $10k is not in the game for $30-$40k.

When I was a SS guy there is no way I was going to pay for a PM piece. It was way way way beyond my means back then.

[madplatter3381]

5 digit gold watches have been under priced, SS over priced. Discrepancy is now converging.

[Snake Plissken]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I dont think so. Someone in the game at $10k is not in the game for $30-$40k.

When I was a SS guy there is no way I was going to pay for a PM piece. It was way way way beyond my means back then.

But I'm talking about people who aren't as price sensitive as you. A lot of people would could afford PM still want to buy SS. There's an exclusivity factor that transcends the actual price.

Like I said though I think this is more true for Patek/AP. For example, a 5711/1R is "only" 74% more than a 5711/1A. Among the very small world of people who are comfortable to spend $30K on a watch, it isn't hard to believe that a large proportion of those people can also comfortably spend $50K.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I dont think so. Someone in the game at $10k is not in the game for $30-$40k.

When I was a SS guy there is no way I was going to pay for a PM piece. It was way way way beyond my means back then.

Remember, things are different nowadays.

I’ve seen it myself at AD. No Stainless Sub in stock...waiting list???

Gold sub right in the case? Wow, what luck! A few reassuraning cliche’s from the salesperson and it’s SOLD. No sweat at all.

The general public, who just want obtain Rolex, seem very willing to spend their money on PM, much more so than even Rolex forecasted.

[eanzenberg]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I dont think so. Someone in the game at $10k is not in the game for $30-$40k.

When I was a SS guy there is no way I was going to pay for a PM piece. It was way way way beyond my means back then.

That’s $10k retail. If you can’t get it, or don’t want to wait 2 years, that $10k becomes $20k gray. At that price, it starts to make sense to go $25k PM from an AD. AD will always win out on customer experience and trust.

[Ihatecheese]

Gold has its fans but I think that hype is more just in these small forums since SS became harder to come by. Going by the ADs carrying and the prohibitive prices and fashion norms, for most Rolex buyers. Rolex isn't the watch aimed at the money is no object crew, rather aspirational wealth on the most part so the addressable market for the gold pieces is split between the higher end brands

[Breizh]

It’s funny I made the same observation last weekend.
Went to LA to check out a few AD and Rodeo Drive was packed. There’s not much tourism from overseas right now and I was stunned by the lines at every high end store. Mostly young folks as well.
AP was by appointment only.
Some young guy came in the Rolex AD and was greeted enthusiastically by his first name while the girlfriend was sporting a birkin.
Yeah, there is money on the street alright.

[Tavli3]

"There's money in the streets"
"Where's the money coming from"

PPP
Biggest government boondoggle of all time. Little to no policing against fraud. Yhea they caught a few guys here and there and a few companies gave the money back. But millions got millions of undeserved cash. Go try and buy a new boat, there are none.
40K Gold watches flying off the shelves like sardine cans??

All of a sudden everybody's rich?? It's either the Day trading Robinhooders or PPP.

[Wahlberg]

It's crazy how people are talked into buying gold because of no SS available or the current gold prices. Feeling the need to extend themselves when they can't/shouldn't. Fear of missing out... It's a watch. Buy luxuries when you can afford them.

Buy what you love, buy what you feel comfortable with. A lot of people are already worried scratching their 5-10k watch.

[watchdisplay]

Originally Posted by eanzenberg

That’s $10k retail. If you can’t get it, or don’t want to wait 2 years, that $10k becomes $20k gray. At that price, it starts to make sense to go $25k PM from an AD. AD will always win out on customer experience and trust.

I personally would prefer to buy from reputable grey market and when I say grey market I mean like DavidSW not Joma etc. I’m not quite sure what people like about the customer experience at a Rolex AD. It’s nothing, it’s a new watch. I’d rather it come to my door the next morning.


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[bp1000]

It will be interesting to look back on this period in 5-10 years

The difficulty in getting steel watches has see a huge growth in PM purchases at full price. Historically 15-25% was not hard to achieve for a discount on PM.

Tudor also came into the fold and Rolex new releases seem to be starting with PM first more and more.

We all suspected Tudor would step into the affordable steel watch space and Rolex would move upmarket.

I’m sort of seeing this play out as prices keep creeping up and desirable releases start or stay as PM.

With the final thought of how this strategy will play out as the cost of the raw metals rise on the open market. If this is passed on to the customer these could get very expensive very quickly.

[Snake Plissken]

Originally Posted by watchdisplay

I’m not quite sure what people like about the customer experience at a Rolex AD.

The price

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I think it's a number of factors going on.

1) The full power of the ROLEX brand is completely unleashed. The general public always thought a Rolex was more expensive than the SS steel pieces that used to populate dealer cases...and people would buy those as a "value"...but now that those aren't as available, the costs of TT and PM are aligned with expectations and there was little resistance to buyers just flat out spending more money. Then FOMO gets a grip and people just can't stand watching things escalate in price and getting left behind, so those buyers jump into the pool too...quite aggressively.

2) The PM AP and Patek are driven buy people looking to get even more exclusive and flex harder than Rolex..or have a differentiation of FLEX to show off. It's not surprising at all. Those brands practice fantastic brand management and will always be super tip top desireable.

3) There are some things about the "modern digital" economy that we don't fully understand yet. As Eric said, "There is money in the streets", but it isn't really clear where it is coming from...in some sectors (and not to marginalize those who are struggling), it's almost like nothing negative is happening at all. The trades (HVAC, Electrical Plumbing...etc) are still booming....Residential AND Commercial. No impact in demand felt at all. It's almost like a bizarro economy...the nubmers just don't connect all the dots..

I mean seeing some doosher Youtuber stumble into an AD and drop $100K on a Rolex tells me that the alternative sources of income via digital means are bearing some pretty ripe fruits..

Valid points Fleetlord. But I still wonder. How much of this wealth is over leveraged on credit or as we say in significant debtor defense cases "Other People's Money" aka OPM.

Stay safe.