If the tables were turned...

[Oyster Sauce]

There is no doubt about the current strong market for luxury watches, especially Rolex (and AP, PP, and select independents). I remember seeing a comment somewhere predicting that the “bubble” will burst...time will tell.

The forum has been busy with a mix of excitement over incoming usual suspects (Rolex sport models) and lamentation about the hype/grey market (and a yearning for the good ole days).

Out of curiosity: if something were to happen in the market such that all of a sudden Rolex sport models lost 20% of their RRP value immediately after purchase instead of increasing (as is the case for many worthy competitors now), would you still pursue the same Rollies that you are hankering over in the current climate? Interested in all honest points of view.

For myself, the answer is clear: I’ll always be a fan of models like the Sub and Pepsi because I’ve always thought they’re cool. I am not currently pursuing either because I’m not willing to at the current going rates, and I’m at peace with that. Looking forward to hearing from the community.

[peterpl]

I used to heavily believe that the bubble will burst especially at the start of coronavirus - however from how the watch market has behaved whether its artificially inflated or not I dont think its going to drop.

Especially since I personally feel the ADs and the manufacturer's themselves are purposely limiting the supply that reaches the end customer the current situation aint going to improve and probably get worse.

To your question - Yes I will still purchase even if the watches plummeted to 10% of the MSRP price as I have always been into watches and Rolex well before the hype started in 2016. I've never been in this game for making money. I dont give a crap about that - as a watch is a luxury item and hobby. Never an investment.

[Mystro]

It’s a luxury watch purchase. $$ 20% either up or down should not even be noticed if you can really afford the watch in the first place. Proper context in the purchase is really the driving theme. You buy the watch to wear so what it does after the point of sale is a mute point.

[HI-Jag]

I would assume if you're having SS models drop 20% in value you would see a huge shift to Gold watches. Assuming across the board its 20% on all Rolex's. People would go gold. I think there's more hype then love behind some SS pieces.

[teck21]

If prices plunged 20%, the question is not whether people would then lose interest.

It would be because people have already lost interest. You are getting chicken and egg mixed up.


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[Raffles]

Personally, I think the current market is just fashion. When Rolex goes out of mainstream fashion the demand from the "trendy" people.
I don't think that they'll tank, just become easier to obtain. That is unless Rolex reduce production levels to suit demand (I have no idea if they would actually do this).

When would I predict that this would happen? I have no idea, but at the minute it seems every young hipster, rapper, insta-influencer etc. wants a "Rollie"

[Hollie_Rollie]

So basically an early 2000s scenario. Even as early as 2015/2016 you could buy an almost new Rolex 20% off in the independent sales section. I remember my first no date sub I bought was in 2015 and I paid $5800 for it. It was practically new, warranty card was only a few months old. Now DSW has that same ND sub selling for $13,000?

I would most definitely still buy Rolex. The hobby would be back to the essence of watch collecting

[Singslinger]

I think demand is strong enough to ensure that any price drop would prove very short-lived.

[IR201]

Well a lot of people, including myself, buy from grey dealers at marked up prices. And when I do, if I wanted to sell it back safely, I'm prob looking at a 15-20 percent hit. So that right there answers the question - people are willing to do it for the watch itself.

What I find interesting actually are the people who will only buy at MSRP out of principle. Given today's market, what this actually translates to is "I refuse to purchase this watch unless I make thousands on my purchase". So the "pure" buyers are actually the ones de facto insisting on a profit from their purchase.

[~JJ]

For sure, I purchased my collection pre-2017 when most models did lose money when you walked out of the store. It’s a mass produced wearable item that should lose value over time, we’ve been in an odd situation for a few years now.

[Judge]

All I can say is....

Buy, then wear the snot of them.

Who cares?

[MasonDixon]

Originally Posted by Oyster Sauce

Out of curiosity: if something were to happen in the market such that all of a sudden Rolex sport models lost 20% of their RRP value immediately after purchase instead of increasing (as is the case for many worthy competitors now), would you still pursue the same Rollies that you are hankering over in the current climate?

Absolutely. I buy watches to wear and enjoy, not for their resale value.

[johnsop]

Originally Posted by IR201

Well a lot of people, including myself, buy from grey dealers at marked up prices. And when I do, if I wanted to sell it back safely, I'm prob looking at a 15-20 percent hit. So that right there answers the question - people are willing to do it for the watch itself.

What I find interesting actually are the people who will only buy at MSRP out of principle. Given today's market, what this actually translates to is "I refuse to purchase this watch unless I make thousands on my purchase". So the "pure" buyers are actually the ones de facto insisting on a profit from their purchase.

To your latter point, what I imagine it actually comes down to for the majority of those who refuse to pay significantly above retail (at least for myself) is the belief that the watch isn't worth its secondhand price. There are often more interesting watches available at that higher price point.

Also, sure it's nice to know something is worth more than what you paid, but your characterization only applies if you plan on selling the watch. Unless you flip it, there is no profit / thousands to be made.

[IR201]

Originally Posted by johnsop

To your latter point, what I imagine it actually comes down to for the majority of those who refuse to pay significantly above retail (at least for myself) is the belief that the watch isn't worth its secondhand price. There are often more interesting watches available at that higher price point.

Also, sure it's nice to know something is worth more than what you paid, but your characterization only applies if you plan on selling the watch. Unless you flip it, there is no profit / thousands to be made.

I think you're absolutely right. I didn't mean to imply bad intent for those who would only pay MSRP, only to point out the consequences of this - which in today's market for many models is a windfall, either in reality if they wind up selling or on paper if they never do.

[ndrs63]

I would question anyone that says choice of Rolex sports watches have nothing with value preservation/appreciation. Granted, they are cool watches and I thoroughly enjoy them. Having a cool toy and paying a good price for it is the secret to complete happiness for me.
If market turns, I will certainly look into the alternatives, however, will never buy watches that I don’t like just because they are good investment.


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[ferrissteve11]

The references I've bought/sold was due to changing interests trying to find just the right one for me. It's nice that Rolex holds its value well compared to other brands, but it hasn't been the driving factor when choosing a model.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by Mystro

It’s a luxury watch purchase. $$ 20% either up or down should not even be noticed if you can really afford the watch in the first place. Proper context in the purchase is really the driving theme. You buy the watch to wear so what it does after the point of sale is a mute point.

Bingo.

[ILuvSubs]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I used to heavily believe that the bubble will burst especially at the start of coronavirus - however from how the watch market has behaved whether its artificially inflated or not I dont think its going to drop.

Especially since I personally feel the ADs and the manufacturer's themselves are purposely limiting the supply that reaches the end customer the current situation aint going to improve and probably get worse.

To your question - Yes I will still purchase even if the watches plummeted to 10% of the MSRP price as I have always been into watches and Rolex well before the hype started in 2016. I've never been in this game for making money. I dont give a crap about that - as a watch is a luxury item and hobby. Never an investment.

When I joined TRF and started out being an enthusiast, all the BNIB and LNIB SS sports watches were trading on the secondary market at a discount to MSRP. At that time, value retention wasn't as big of a concern. It was more about enjoying the watches for what they were.

PM sports watches were trading at an even greater discount on the secondary market.

It would be fantastic if it returned to that state and those who want a SS or PM sports watch can buy one whether at MSRP or below.

Not sure whether that will happen any time soon.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

So basically an early 2000s scenario. Even as early as 2015/2016 you could buy an almost new Rolex 20% off in the independent sales section. I remember my first no date sub I bought was in 2015 and I paid $5800 for it. It was practically new, warranty card was only a few months old. Now DSW has that same ND sub selling for $13,000?

I would most definitely still buy Rolex. The hobby would be back to the essence of watch collecting

That is a great observation about the market 5yrs ago.

What's interesting also is...guess what was a focus of the market 5yrs ago...even 10yrs ago?

Yep. Value Retention. For sure, the valuation of watches was less in the spotlight than now, but it was absolutely a factor.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=156180

Look at this 10yr old poll attached to this thread linked above. Looks like quite a few members listed Resale value as being quite important to them.

Do a search. Plenty and plenty of threads regarding resale value and retention...

So, even though Rolex was selling for under retail, it wasn't losing as much value as "the other guys"..such as Omega, IWC, Breitling..etc

What I find more interesting is that resale valuation discussions have been on this forum for as long as I can remember..but people seem to think it's a recent "thing". Sure, it's more of a focus, but it's always been here...always will.

[Tritto]

I'd like a SS Sub or GMT, but in the current market I'll never have access to one at RRP and I refuse to line the pockets of scalpers.
If the market were to turn and near new examples where selling at 20% off RRP I'd be perfectly happy. Not only would I have better access to a new one at RRP, I'd have access to a near new one at 20% off. What's not to like?


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[28mm]

I started 'collecting' Rolexes in the late 90's. Other than my Daytona, I always assumed that they would lose 20% or so from list price or even more. I hardly paid attention to any of this as I built my collection with the last Rolex purchased in 2007. Only in the last 3-4 years have I started getting the itch to buy a new watch and am still a bit in shock to see how the market has changed. I'm like Rip Van Winkle and glad I have a nice collection already. So the answer is 100% non issue if my new Rolex purchase would lose 20% value..my 'wish list' is about 5!

[VonSomething]

Let's just say a lot of buyers suddenly wouldn't know what to buy :-)

[28mm]

Originally Posted by IR201

What I find interesting actually are the people who will only buy at MSRP out of principle. Given today's market, what this actually translates to is "I refuse to purchase this watch unless I make thousands on my purchase". So the "pure" buyers are actually the ones de facto insisting on a profit from their purchase.

Wait. What?

[TankTom]

Originally Posted by Raffles

Personally, I think the current market is just fashion. When Rolex goes out of mainstream fashion the demand from the "trendy" people.
I don't think that they'll tank, just become easier to obtain. That is unless Rolex reduce production levels to suit demand (I have no idea if they would actually do this).

When would I predict that this would happen? I have no idea, but at the minute it seems every young hipster, rapper, insta-influencer etc. wants a "Rollie"

Tell me when Rolex were not fashionable and in-trend?

[Binky1]

Originally Posted by IR201

Well a lot of people, including myself, buy from grey dealers at marked up prices. And when I do, if I wanted to sell it back safely, I'm prob looking at a 15-20 percent hit. So that right there answers the question - people are willing to do it for the watch itself.

What I find interesting actually are the people who will only buy at MSRP out of principle. Given today's market, what this actually translates to is "I refuse to purchase this watch unless I make thousands on my purchase". So the "pure" buyers are actually the ones de facto insisting on a profit from their purchase.

Interesting and well put on point #1. Not so sure about point #2 though.
I’m a sucker for the AD experience and owning from new. My watches are keepers. However I do often consider paying Grey for a Daytona to round off the collection...just haven’t quite got there yet. Patience is a virtue? Hmmm...

[Macnavara]

I did before and i will after
The fact that everyone and their dog has a rolex takes something away from the brand for me.
I believe a high percentage of people who buy rolex today do so for the hype.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Oyster Sauce

if something were to happen in the market such that all of a sudden Rolex sport models lost 20% of their RRP value immediately after purchase instead of increasing (as is the case for many worthy competitors now), would you still pursue the same Rollies that you are hankering over in the current climate?

Of course. I would also resume negotiating discounts, which I have received from my AD in the past on Rolex watches. In addition, I might start looking harder at a couple of PM models if the entire range started to behave "normally".

It's nice to be theoretically paid for wearing a Rolex, but it's always been the acquisition price of my next piece that I've been focused on, not the market value of pieces owned - past what is necessary to insure them. If profit on watches was such a concern I wouldn't own any of the other brands which start depreciating immediately.

Looking at all our purchases from our preferred AD in the last ten years or so, watches (including Rolex), writing, jewellery, travel, accessories, the total of discounts we have received on MSRP are much greater than the sum of the grey premiums I have paid for two of my Rolex watches.

[BLACKHORSE 6]

Originally Posted by teck21

If prices plunged 20%, the question is not whether people would then lose interest.

It would be because people have already lost interest. You are getting chicken and egg mixed up.


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This is a good point, but this is a discussion between a bunch of watch nerds on TRF. Everyone here is an enthusiast and not a typical buyer.

[faz]

One of the reasons most people get into and stay with Rolex is the fact that they believe it retains its value longer and better than other brands.


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[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by TankTom

Tell me when Rolex were not fashionable and in-trend?

That would be about 24-36 months ago when you could get the 15% OFF an BLNR, Sub or Datejust ..