actual craze of the 15202... and the reality

[Patek_collector]

guys, does anyone have real pulse of the 15202 price nowadays? i am thinking of one for Grey, but i am getting some just unimaginable prices for a new piece.. i spoke to 3 different ones and the least offer was $80K for a new one... am i talking to the wrong people???

let me know if any of you saw a real transaction in the past couple of weeks.

[drhk]

You´ve come too late. Two weeks ago prices were about 45 K€, then sky-rocketed after the CEO of AP had announced that the 15202ST will be discontinued or replaced by a successor in 2022.

[illiguy]

My understanding is that these are actually selling in the $70k-80k range USD. Some listings may test the market now, but I think the 15202ST will hit these list prices in the coming weeks/months.

No skin in this game, other than to say I am an admirer of the 15202ST and follow listings/sales on a casual basis. I also have convos with ADs, Boutiques and Trusted Sellers from time-to-time.

[7sins]

I own two 15202ST and waiting for my 15202OR to arrive this week. On the ST, I have been offered low 80s to sell mine recently but declined. On the OR high 90s, there are zero floating around despite what you see on C24. A lot of what you see as "in stock" on C24 are actually not and these are "Dealers" who will try to look and find you one, often at a higher price. To gauge the market, you really need to find a dealer who actually has the watch in possession for pricing.

[shkure]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I own two 15202ST and waiting for my 15202OR to arrive this week. On the ST, I have been offered low 80s to sell mine recently but declined. On the OR high 90s, there are zero floating around despite what you see on C24. A lot of what you see as "in stock" on C24 are actually not and these are "Dealers" who will try to look and find you one, often at a higher price. To gauge the market, you really need to find a dealer who actually has the watch in possession for pricing.

I think you can name your price for the 15202OR at this point. Extremely rare. In any case, if you decide to sell, i hear Roman Sharf is looking for one.


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[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I own two 15202ST and waiting for my 15202OR to arrive this week. On the ST, I have been offered low 80s to sell mine recently but declined. On the OR high 90s, there are zero floating around despite what you see on C24. A lot of what you see as "in stock" on C24 are actually not and these are "Dealers" who will try to look and find you one, often at a higher price. To gauge the market, you really need to find a dealer who actually has the watch in possession for pricing.

any plans to sell one eventually and get back that rg olive day date? lol

also 15202OR is amazing, early congrats there and post pics when it comes

[7sins]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Let's be clear (I know many have already said it here)...

List price != final sale price

And we never really get to see the final sale price since this is an opaque market.

You can't even use the "how long has it sat listed online unsold" metric since people do de-list things and let them sit in inventory for a while to test the waters. Many grey dealers do this.

Agree, specifically to those watches listed on the far end of the price curve. However, I will say, that dealers budge VERY little on their prices. I've been following multiple watches, that the market would consider in-demand, when I inquired, I was lucky to receive 2-5% off what they were asking - and this is with established relationships. In most cases, the value of the watch rose and they were sold at full ask or above. Which ultimately speaks to the amount of discretionary income floating around.

If you look at the bottom end of the price curve for in-demand watches, I would be willing to bet they are selling at their ask price or very close to it. This is a unique situation as the market is still in price discovery for a 15202 after announcement.

Originally Posted by huncho

any plans to sell one eventually and get back that rg olive day date? lol

also 15202OR is amazing, early congrats there and post pics when it comes

Thanks! Will post when it arrives, pretty excited. The one 15202st is a 2012 and I will probably never sell. The other st I am waiting to see where prices stabilize, fingers-crossed they move closer to $100k and I will probably unload one. On the 15202OR, I'm not sure what I would replace it with, as much as I miss the DD RG Olive I still prefer the AP and the RM030 i've been chasing is just too far out of reach at the moment.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Agree, specifically to those watches listed on the far end of the price curve. However, I will say, that dealers budge VERY little on their prices. I've been following multiple watches, that the market would consider in-demand, when I inquired, I was lucky to receive 2-5% off what they were asking - and this is with established relationships. In most cases, the value of the watch rose and they were sold at full ask or above. Which ultimately speaks to the amount of discretionary income floating around.

If you look at the bottom end of the price curve for in-demand watches, I would be willing to bet they are selling at their ask price or very close to it. This is a unique situation as the market is still in price discovery for a 15202 after announcement.



Thanks! Will post when it arrives, pretty excited. The one 15202st is a 2012 and I will probably never sell. The other st I am waiting to see where prices stabilize, fingers-crossed they move closer to $100k and I will probably unload one. On the 15202OR, I'm not sure what I would replace it with, as much as I miss the DD RG Olive I still prefer the AP and the RM030 i've been chasing is just too far out of reach at the moment.

i probably wouldn't trade the 15202OR for a day date either. i think a PM royal oak is basically irreplaceable. ST for a PM rolex is a different story though, but it's so hard to tell with the current rolex prices being ridiculous

[7sins]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Agreed.

Although, I will note that dealers not budging is characteristic of the state we are in right now (or any time any market is in this exact state).

You hoard and you hold the line. This is how you can set market pricing in an illiquid and opaque market.

Exactly, which honestly starts to ruin our hobby as true watch enthusiasts, or at least makes it less attainable.

Originally Posted by huncho

i probably wouldn't trade the 15202OR for a day date either. i think a PM royal oak is basically irreplaceable. ST for a PM rolex is a different story though, but it's so hard to tell with the current rolex prices being ridiculous

That is what I am thinking too, lets see if the 116519 meteorite comes to fruition tomorrow, I owed it in WG silver dial and would love it in meteorite.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Agree, specifically to those watches listed on the far end of the price curve. However, I will say, that dealers budge VERY little on their prices.

Agreed.

Although, I will note that dealers not budging is characteristic of the state we are in right now (or any time any market is in this exact state).

You hoard and you hold the line. This is how you can set market pricing in an illiquid and opaque market.

[RobGomez]

I can speak to this as I was negotiating one right before Mr. FHB purposefully decided to light the market on fire. I have been following 5 examples when they were in the low 60s and were jacked up to mid to high 80s and as of this writing, have not sold. I don’t believe they are actually transacting at these prices, at least not now.


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[Uros]

This is completely crazy...have bought mine 15202 to wear and enjoy, now I feel I have something hot on my wrist and Im not wearing it since the announcement...

Also have just serviced it, with these prices any new scratch cost me few thousands eur?!


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[illiguy]

Several on Chrono24 listed above 100k USD. A clear testing of the market.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Several on Chrono24 listed above 100k USD. A clear testing of the market.

Will be interesting to see where it lands, looks like another one listed this morning at $125k in ST. Interestingly, there are almost 5x more 5711 listed than 15202, maybe limited availability will prop up prices.

[GreenLantern]

Let's be clear (I know many have already said it here)...

List price != final sale price

And we never really get to see the final sale price since this is an opaque market.

You can't even use the "how long has it sat listed online unsold" metric since people do de-list things and let them sit in inventory for a while to test the waters. Many grey dealers do this.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Let's be clear (I know many have already said it here)...

List price != final sale price

And we never really get to see the final sale price since this is an opaque market.

You can't even use the "how long has it sat listed online unsold" metric since people do de-list things and let them sit in inventory for a while to test the waters. Many grey dealers do this.

But don’t forget the bid/ask spread tells you a lot. Then combined with knowing average margins that dealer does business in gives you a pretty good 95% clarity of the market.

[Benzsiam]

15202 is the best RO for sure but I think the secondary market price is way overprice.

I have plenty money to acquire but I will never willing to pay for that crazy price.

[tcheeco]

Gonna sell mine and buy another apartment to rent, lol

[chiscott_29]

I have always defended the secondary market, and still do. However, I have to admit seeing crap like this makes my stomach turn and it defies any sort of logic.

If the mere suggestion of a new model or discontinuation makes watches "gap up" without any rhyme or reason, I have to admit I'm starting to understand what people suggest when they say the hobby is being ruined.

I get it...it's a business. Specifically for dealers. But if this is where we are, all I can say is the market works both ways. Let's see what happens when the market becomes a falling knife.

[jschmidtdmd]

I don't think we are going to see a full correction the way everyone keeps saying we will.

Prices may adjust a bit, but if it were my business, I would adjust supply accordingly.

Social media isn't going away. People will continue to chase and acquire.

Those are just my thoughts on this.

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I have always defended the secondary market, and still do. However, I have to admit seeing crap like this makes my stomach turn and it defies any sort of logic.

If the mere suggestion of a new model or discontinuation makes watches "gap up" without any rhyme or reason, I have to admit I'm starting to understand what people suggest when they say the hobby is being ruined.

I get it...it's a business. Specifically for dealers. But if this is where we are, all I can say is the market works both ways. Let's see what happens when the market becomes a falling knife.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by jschmidtdmd

I don't think we are going to see a full correction the way everyone keeps saying we will.

Prices may adjust a bit, but if it were my business, I would adjust supply accordingly.

Social media isn't going away. People will continue to chase and acquire.

Those are just my thoughts on this.

I actually agree with you and I probably should have clarified my “falling knife” comment.

My thoughts are aligned with yours in that I am not sure we’ll see a “correction” if things play out within reason. Barring some material change in supply, I feel this is all the new reality where prices just keep heading north.

However, I feel over the past several months there has been frequent occurrences of hoarding based on rumor (i.e., the Rolex Gold/Green Daytona and the Platona) and these “gap ups” when something is hinted about a model refresh (5711, now the 15202). I just don’t think these things are sustainable and they really lay bare how easily things can be manipulated. Look at the Jumbo. You go to bed one night it’s $58k, and the next day it’s at $85k because of a few words uttered by a CEO.

If this all proves to be a successful way to do business, we know it’ll perpetuate even further and more and more people will feed the frenzy from both the consumer end and the dealer end. Frenzies and greed will bring down every over-inflated market. Watches won’t be immune.


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[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I actually agree with you and I probably should have clarified my “falling knife” comment.

My thoughts are aligned with yours in that I am not sure we’ll see a “correction” if things play out within reason. Barring some material change in supply, I feel this is all the new reality where prices just keep heading north.

However, I feel over the past several months there has been frequent occurrences of hoarding based on rumor (i.e., the Rolex Gold/Green Daytona and the Platona) and these “gap ups” when something is hinted about a model refresh (5711, now the 15202). I just don’t think these things are sustainable and they really lay bare how easily things can be manipulated. Look at the Jumbo. You go to bed one night it’s $58k, and the next day it’s at $85k because of a few words uttered by a CEO.

If this all proves to be a successful way to do business, we know it’ll perpetuate even further and more and more people will feed the frenzy from both the consumer end and the dealer end. Frenzies and greed will bring down every over-inflated market. Watches won’t be immune.


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Back of the envelope math, I think with roughly 5M USD you could corner and manipulate the green Daytona or 15202 or FPJ CB market. There’s not enough coming onto the market to take away enough dry powder, and you can always widen the spread of flooded. And with say a line of credit costing capital only 3-4 percent while margins are 20% you could keep holding a long while.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

But don’t forget the bid/ask spread tells you a lot. Then combined with knowing average margins that dealer does business in gives you a pretty good 95% clarity of the market.

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Back of the envelope math, I think with roughly 5M USD you could corner and manipulate the green Daytona or 15202 or FPJ CB market. There’s not enough coming onto the market to take away enough dry powder, and you can always widen the spread of flooded. And with say a line of credit costing capital only 3-4 percent while margins are 20% you could keep holding a long while.

Indeed. I buy that. In fact, there's at least a couple greys who've done that (in terms of cornering the market and propping up the values of certain indie brands and/or low production pieces).

[illiguy]

If there were to be a correction, I think the models that would suffer the most would be outside the realm of being: (1) relatively low in terms of production output; (2) the iconic “monuments”; and (3) timeless design language.

To that end, I am less worried about timepieces such as the 15202 Jumbo, 5711 Nautilus, and the DaytonaC. I would be more worried about “spillover” hype into watches such as the Hulk, Batman, Stella dial Datejusts, etc.

Just my two cents and by no means trying to just pick on Rolex here.

[GreenLantern]

It's tough to have a correction in an illiquid opaque market that isn't heavily leveraged (like real estate in 2005-2008).

[HMHM]

Honestly this is the byproduct of buying from greys... the buyers enabled them and gave them the arrogance to do such thing. I said it in another post in the Rolex discussion board that eventually it’s gonna hit all of us if WE don’t stop buying from greys because what’s going to happen is that they are now acquiring capital and will eventually monopoly the market. It’s either we put a stop to this or watch how they manipulate the market to their whims and fancy!

[Jgives]

Originally Posted by HMHM

Honestly this is the byproduct of buying from greys... the buyers enabled them and gave them the arrogance to do such thing. I said it in another post in the Rolex discussion board that eventually it’s gonna hit all of us if WE don’t stop buying from greys because what’s going to happen is that they are now acquiring capital and will eventually monopoly the market. It’s either we put a stop to this or watch how they manipulate the market to their whims and fancy!

Haha, good luck. Let’s band together and stop using StubHub while we’re at it.

[chmhill]

Wow I am glad that I own one already.

[sokoloka]

No matter what the price is doing I'm very happy to have gotten mine and enjoy wearing it as much as possible.

Hope everyone who wants one gets theirs as well!

[TheMethod]

I still have mine that I bought from takuya in 2016, I think I paid a little under $18,000 at the time. My house value increased around 2x since then but the watch around 5x? Crazy! I was also close to getting a Nautilus 5711 from takuya at the time as well (I think he was asking for $24,000) but went with a Daytona instead. One went up 2x while the 5711...