Interesting article about the great shortage of Rolex.

[johnwigan]

Interesting article about the great shortage:

https://www.fratellowatches.com/stai...not-available/

[Mendota]

Thanks for posting! I bookmarked this so I can read it later.

[seabreeze60]

Yep. There’s a number of articles like this one about Rolex. They pretty much confirm what we have been saying. Rolex knows what is going on and they just look the other way. The ADs, boutiques and Rolex are at max capacity. Life is good for them.

[vh2k]

Fratello - Is that the new frozen coffee drink from Dunkin'?

[Driver8]

For all these articles, there’s no mystery with any of this. Hype and FOMO driven by social media, coupled with the pandemic meaning people haven’t been spending on other things (like travel), has meant that demand has skyrocketed. This has meant more people chasing pieces, which feeds the impression of perceived rarity, so grey prices go up, which in turn encourages people to buy whatever they’re offered, so fuelling FOMO (and the need in some quarters for social media acceptance), even more.

Supply from Rolex has remained basically the same (with a small dip due to Covid shutdowns), so of course people are finding it hard to find watches at ADs. Thus we see a vicious circle of people thinking Rolex watches will see never-ending price rises, which causes more people to speculatively jump on the bandwagon, so exacerbating the problem.

And Rolex have zero incentive to change anything. Why would they? The halo effect of many sports pieces has filtered down to practically every other model. Therefore they sell literally everything they make, for MSRP, without even trying. Why would they change that?

As far as I’m concerned Rolex are perfectly happy - again, they sell everything they make for the price they want.

What could they do IF they decided to do something about it and/or capitalise on the situation? They could knee-jerk raise prices massively and/or increase production by making more factories. Great for them in the short-term, but in the long-run they could end up “doing a Panerai” if they went that route. Everything Rolex does is glacial in its speed, so I personally think they’re more than happy with everything at the moment.

[peterp]

Rolex marketing dept. are the most happy people in the industry (because of solid bonuses).

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Driver8

For all these articles, there’s no mystery with any of this. Hype and FOMO driven by social media, coupled with the pandemic meaning people haven’t been spending on other things (like travel), has meant that demand has skyrocketed. This has meant more people chasing pieces, which feeds the impression of perceived rarity, so grey prices go up, which in turn encourages people to buy whatever they’re offered, so fuelling FOMO (and the need in some quarters for social media acceptance), even more.

Supply from Rolex has remained basically the same (with a small dip due to Covid shutdowns), so of course people are finding it hard to find watches at ADs. Thus we see a vicious circle of people thinking Rolex watches will see never-ending price rises, which causes more people to speculatively jump on the bandwagon, so exacerbating the problem.

And Rolex have zero incentive to change anything. Why would they? The halo effect of many sports pieces has filtered down to practically every other model. Therefore they sell literally everything they make, for MSRP, without even trying. Why would they change that?

As far as I’m concerned Rolex are perfectly happy - again, they sell everything they make for the price they want.

What could they do IF they decided to do something about it and/or capitalise on the situation? They could knee-jerk raise prices massively and/or increase production by making more factories. Great for them in the short-term, but in the long-run they could end up “doing a Panerai” if they went that route. Everything Rolex does is glacial in its speed, so I personally think they’re more than happy with everything at the moment.

Absolutely Correct.

[Fleetlord]

The only thing about that article I question is how much business the other brands have gained from Rolex being unavailable.

Perhaps from watch aficionados who are looking for a fix, but I just don't see that among the general public buyer. They don't want a watch at all. They want ROLEX and all the cachet that it provides.

[Oxfordian]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The only thing about that article I question is how much business the other brands have gained from Rolex being unavailable.

Perhaps from watch aficionados who are looking for a fix, but I just don't see that among the general public buyer. They don't want a watch at all. They want ROLEX and all the cachet that it provides.

This is a great question and one that gets asked on a regular basis.

I think that you have the answer, it really depends on whether you are Rolex and thats all I am prepared to buy or I like watches and will buy what appeals to me irrespective of brand.

Unfortunately as we see all too often many will go Rolex only due to the 'investment' potential that owning a Rolex gives the buyer.

[Polar Bear]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The only thing about that article I question is how much business the other brands have gained from Rolex being unavailable.

Perhaps from watch aficionados who are looking for a fix, but I just don't see that among the general public buyer. They don't want a watch at all. They want ROLEX and all the cachet that it provides.

I know a handful of regular people who walked into a Rolex AD looking to buy "their first good watch" and ended up going across the street to Omega and Breitling, others walked out with a Tudor due because "its just like a Rolex, only cheaper"

The "gotta have it now" knife cuts both ways.
Regular people who want a Rolex today, but cant get one, go elsewhere if they dont know about or cant afford to go grey

[JonaG]

Interesting article that nicely summarizes the current situation. Although the lady who claimed “They used to look at me, now they are clearly just observing my wrist.” may be somewhat imagining that in her head…on both counts.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

I know a handful of regular people who walked into a Rolex AD looking to buy "their first good watch" and ended up going across the street to Omega and Breitling, others walked out with a Tudor due because "its just like a Rolex, only cheaper"

The "gotta have it now" knife cuts both ways.
Regular people who want a Rolex today, but cant get one, go elsewhere if they dont know about or cant afford to go grey

That’s true, and this customer segment is probably larger than Fleetlord gives it credit for.

Many an unknowing customer has walked into a store looking to acquire a Rolex to celebrate how wealthy they are feeling, and walked out with some other nonsense they got steered to by the sales person who has managed to convince them exactly what you said, ‘it’s like a Rolex…’

And then they find out the truth about why they couldn’t get a Rolex, and almost always regret their purchase straightaway.

They have seen the light and will no longer settle for anything less than Rolex from an AD.

They won’t even settle for a Patek or RM.

Almost none of them know what a grey dealer is, and don’t care.


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[Jpccarguy]

Not too different from wanting a hard-to-obtain sports car. You can walk into the dealer and see models you don’t want. You can order the Porsche with your exact specs, or ask for the Rolex you want… and wait. Some are willing to wait 6-12 months, many are not. Market forces at work. If I ran Rolex, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to change anything.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by teck21

That’s true, and this customer segment is probably larger than Fleetlord gives it credit for.

Many an unknowing customer has walked into a store looking to acquire a Rolex to celebrate how wealthy they are feeling, and walked out with some other nonsense they got steered to by the sales person who has managed to convince them exactly what you said, ‘it’s like a Rolex…’

And then they find out the truth about why they couldn’t get a Rolex, and almost always regret their purchase straightaway.

They have seen the light and will no longer settle for anything less than Rolex from an AD.

They won’t even settle for a Patek or RM.

Almost none of them know what a grey dealer is, and don’t care.


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Yeah I could see that happening.....the outcome definitely being as you describe.

[Rado63]

I am not reading that Rolex AD's are giving up their AD agreements due to a lack of inventory. In a Recent post on TRF, the member mentioned his Rolex AD said they are meeting all their sales quotas. The demand has escalated, and the major luxury brands must be content with the wait times and secondary market getting premiums. So why bother writing such an article, Why Are Stainless Steel Rolex Watches Still Not Available? unless it's more click bait and adding to the hype.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Fratello - Is that the new frozen coffee drink from Dunkin'?

They’re a well respected online watch magazine and have been around for a long time putting out high quality info

[JodyHighroller]

As mentioned in the article, I wonder what percentage of the folks who express interest now are genuine with their intentions vs those trying to make a quick buck? Curious of how they’d go about trying to calculate that.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by Driver8

For all these articles, there’s no mystery with any of this. Hype and FOMO driven by social media, coupled with the pandemic meaning people haven’t been spending on other things (like travel), has meant that demand has skyrocketed. This has meant more people chasing pieces, which feeds the impression of perceived rarity, so grey prices go up, which in turn encourages people to buy whatever they’re offered, so fuelling FOMO (and the need in some quarters for social media acceptance), even more.

Supply from Rolex has remained basically the same (with a small dip due to Covid shutdowns), so of course people are finding it hard to find watches at ADs. Thus we see a vicious circle of people thinking Rolex watches will see never-ending price rises, which causes more people to speculatively jump on the bandwagon, so exacerbating the problem.

And Rolex have zero incentive to change anything. Why would they? The halo effect of many sports pieces has filtered down to practically every other model. Therefore they sell literally everything they make, for MSRP, without even trying. Why would they change that?

As far as I’m concerned Rolex are perfectly happy - again, they sell everything they make for the price they want.

What could they do IF they decided to do something about it and/or capitalise on the situation? They could knee-jerk raise prices massively and/or increase production by making more factories. Great for them in the short-term, but in the long-run they could end up “doing a Panerai” if they went that route. Everything Rolex does is glacial in its speed, so I personally think they’re more than happy with everything at the moment.

Well said. I'd add expanding global markets over the past few years and an increased global AD network as a result meaning lower supply to Rolex's traditional markets. This should be a sticky

Its not that recent a phenomenon either. 4 years ago whist waiting a Dubai airport for a connecting flight I observed a number of different people asking to buy "any sports Rolex" the airport AD had in stock.

Some folk will, of course, continue to believe that Rolex is artificially restricting supply, and will probably continue to believe that until they realise that the Earth is not actually flat after all

[bocaxx]

I bought my Grail about 25 years ago. It was a Patek 5035 which I still own and enjoy immensely. BTW I bought a Seiko in an army PX in 1968 and it still works. Over the course of the last 25 years I Have occasionally purchased an additional watch that struck my fancy. Among others a Speedy and even a Timex watch I enjoy wearing. Recently I decided to I'd like another watch. Refused to pay over retail. Although Rolex is desirable I decided to look elsewhere. What caught my Eye was the Cartier Santos. Went to Cartier to try it on and loved it. 34k in 18k gold. Went to the secondary market and purchased it for 26.5 out the door. I'm the original owner. Came complete with boxes, hang tags etc. No it did not have a warranty card. For me its not an issue. Worn it daily for the last six months and it keeps near perfect time.
So yes look elsewhere. This dude did. There are great desirable watches everywhere. With huge discounts. Do not get caught up in FOMO.
MY 2 cents

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by JodyHighroller

As mentioned in the article, I wonder what percentage of the folks who express interest now are genuine with their intentions vs those trying to make a quick buck? Curious of how they’d go about trying to calculate that.

Exactly. An interesting thought experiment would be if market prices dropped to the same level or below what you pay in MSRP at the AD, so this completely eliminated any and all prospects of financial speculation, how many people would still follow through and purchase the watches?

I think many of us who have been patiently waiting would get those long anticipated calls and emails to come pick up our pieces and we would get back to forum discussions of actual interesting watch content again.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by JodyHighroller

As mentioned in the article, I wonder what percentage of the folks who express interest now are genuine with their intentions vs those trying to make a quick buck? Curious of how they’d go about trying to calculate that.

Of the current interest ,99% would be quick buckers .

Its wayyy different from 5 or 10 years ago .

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The only thing about that article I question is how much business the other brands have gained from Rolex being unavailable.

Perhaps from watch aficionados who are looking for a fix, but I just don't see that among the general public buyer. They don't want a watch at all. They want ROLEX and all the cachet that it provides.

Hi Fleet,

I actually think other brands/models are benefitting quite a bit from the overall Rolex situation -- not the unavailability of Rolex, per se... but the massive increase in Rolex secondary market values combined with increasing popularity of stainless steel sports/professional and/or modern retro/neo-classic style pieces. Interest in Rolex is getting more people interested in Swiss luxury and mechanical watches in general -- and there are some examples that can be considered.

1. Omega and Breitling are doing OK. Not massive beneficiaries... but both have had very successful recent launches (new Speedy, Snoopy, NTTD, Superocean, Top Time, Premier, etc.). Discounts are smaller. Grey market/transshipping is down.
2. AP Royal Oak (stainless steel sports model) - skyrocketing prices
3. Patek Nautilus and Aquanaut (sportier models with metal/rubber bracelets) - astronomical prices
4. VC Overseas - used to langish, now selling for over list (north of $20K)
5. Zenith Chronomaster Sport - big hit for Zenith, way lower discounts than in the past
6. Moser Streamliner (new $20Kish sport model) - gaining traction
7. Czapek Antarctique (new $20Kish sport model) - gaining traction
8. Tissot PRX (not luxury, but integrated bracelet sports model) - huge hit for Tissot
9. I'm sure there are others.

I think it can be argued the insatiable demand and interest in Rolex is spilling over and creating buyers for other brands/models.

[Swiss Mad!]

Originally Posted by bocaxx

I bought my Grail about 25 years ago. It was a Patek 5035 which I still own and enjoy immensely. BTW I bought a Seiko in an army PX in 1968 and it still works. Over the course of the last 25 years I Have occasionally purchased an additional watch that struck my fancy. Among others a Speedy and even a Timex watch I enjoy wearing. Recently I decided to I'd like another watch. Refused to pay over retail. Although Rolex is desirable I decided to look elsewhere. What caught my Eye was the Cartier Santos. Went to Cartier to try it on and loved it. 34k in 18k gold. Went to the secondary market and purchased it for 26.5 out the door. I'm the original owner. Came complete with boxes, hang tags etc. No it did not have a warranty card. For me its not an issue. Worn it daily for the last six months and it keeps near perfect time.
So yes look elsewhere. This dude did. There are great desirable watches everywhere. With huge discounts. Do not get caught up in FOMO.
MY 2 cents

So you own a Patek, a vintage Seiko, an Omega Speedmaster, a Timex & now a Cartier Santos…which in your opinion are all viable alternatives to Rolex for which you refuse to pay a premium for.

Yet your still posting on The Rolex Forum…

why ???


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[Onti]

Originally Posted by Driver8

For all these articles, there’s no mystery with any of this. Hype and FOMO driven by social media, coupled with the pandemic meaning people haven’t been spending on other things (like travel), has meant that demand has skyrocketed. This has meant more people chasing pieces, which feeds the impression of perceived rarity, so grey prices go up, which in turn encourages people to buy whatever they’re offered, so fuelling FOMO (and the need in some quarters for social media acceptance), even more.

Supply from Rolex has remained basically the same (with a small dip due to Covid shutdowns), so of course people are finding it hard to find watches at ADs. Thus we see a vicious circle of people thinking Rolex watches will see never-ending price rises, which causes more people to speculatively jump on the bandwagon, so exacerbating the problem.

And Rolex have zero incentive to change anything. Why would they? The halo effect of many sports pieces has filtered down to practically every other model. Therefore they sell literally everything they make, for MSRP, without even trying. Why would they change that?

As far as I’m concerned Rolex are perfectly happy - again, they sell everything they make for the price they want.

What could they do IF they decided to do something about it and/or capitalise on the situation? They could knee-jerk raise prices massively and/or increase production by making more factories. Great for them in the short-term, but in the long-run they could end up “doing a Panerai” if they went that route. Everything Rolex does is glacial in its speed, so I personally think they’re more than happy with everything at the moment.

I think this is exactly the situation. Maybe the production is just the same but demand is higher thus a picture of scarcity is felt...

It's just all in our heads.

[Jaypremium]

Originally Posted by Swiss Mad!

So you own a Patek, a vintage Seiko, an Omega Speedmaster, a Timex & now a Cartier Santos…which in your opinion are all viable alternatives to Rolex for which you refuse to pay a premium for.

Yet your still posting on The Rolex Forum…

why ???


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Lol


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[NoVaSubowner]

Because the man likes watches.


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[padi56]

Originally Posted by Driver8

For all these articles, there’s no mystery with any of this. Hype and FOMO driven by social media, coupled with the pandemic meaning people haven’t been spending on other things (like travel), has meant that demand has skyrocketed. This has meant more people chasing pieces, which feeds the impression of perceived rarity, so grey prices go up, which in turn encourages people to buy whatever they’re offered, so fuelling FOMO (and the need in some quarters for social media acceptance), even more.

Supply from Rolex has remained basically the same (with a small dip due to Covid shutdowns), so of course people are finding it hard to find watches at ADs. Thus we see a vicious circle of people thinking Rolex watches will see never-ending price rises, which causes more people to speculatively jump on the bandwagon, so exacerbating the problem.

And Rolex have zero incentive to change anything. Why would they? The halo effect of many sports pieces has filtered down to practically every other model. Therefore they sell literally everything they make, for MSRP, without even trying. Why would they change that?

As far as I’m concerned Rolex are perfectly happy - again, they sell everything they make for the price they want.

What could they do IF they decided to do something about it and/or capitalise on the situation? They could knee-jerk raise prices massively and/or increase production by making more factories. Great for them in the short-term, but in the long-run they could end up “doing a Panerai” if they went that route. Everything Rolex does is glacial in its speed, so I personally think they’re more than happy with everything at the moment.

Exactly and many today believe everything they read or see on so called social media, Youtube etc, as today many today rely on this stuff to do the thinking for them.

[77T]

Well, Rolex availability is not a pretty picture…. That’s the headline.

As for pejorative barbs about greys, flippers, ADs, Rolex, FOMO, or myriad theories…. It goes to show how people react to a situation when there is less of something than one wishes to buy.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by padi56

Exactly and many today believe everything they read or see on so called social media, Youtube etc, as today many today rely on this stuff to do the thinking for them.

I think this can be viewed through the lens of almost any topic about current events.

The misplaced belief in crowd-sourced “facts” seen online today is not much different than the 19th Century yellow journalism in the penny press of that era.

Such confirmation bias (i.e., favoring “information” that confirms previously existing beliefs or biases) - whether or not it is objectively or logically derived - is a human frailty.

We really can’t help ourselves - it is a type of cognitive bias that requires much effort to overcome.

The Metaverse, Dark Matter, Evolution, Blockchain, and Santa Claus all have the same online debates.


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[ProCoach]

Originally Posted by Jpccarguy

Not too different from wanting a hard-to-obtain sports car. You can walk into the dealer and see models you don’t want. You can order the Porsche with your exact specs, or ask for the Rolex you want… and wait. Some are willing to wait 6-12 months, many are not. Market forces at work. If I ran Rolex, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to change anything.

Bingo.

This has been going on with Ferrari for a long time and with Porsche for awhile.

While Ferrari has gone through periods where their AD’s must sell for MSRP, those AD’s use the scarcity of current and future production to make prospective buyers jump through all kinds of hoops to get and to stay on “the list.” In the end, nothing counts more than a buying pattern (and whether you trade back in to THAT AD) for access to the newest, latest model.

Porsche AD’s? Not so much. Without a prohibition by Porsche against ADM attached to new cars, some dealers in “hot” markets are asking, and getting, $100K over MSRP for the new 992 GT3.

This is not new…