Miami show observation

[carwashchris]

On my way home from the Miami convention center. Just thought I'd share my observations. A lot more brand new rolexes than I ever expected to see. Probably close to 1,000 maybe 1500. The gray dealers at the booths were literally calling ADs trying to source watches for customers standing at the booth. I'm not in the market for anything new except an OP of color like many of us. Kind of disappointing. To see it in action.

[m j b]

How do you know they were calling ADs? More likely calling their contemporaries (other dealers) and would be happy making $200 on the deal.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by m j b

How do you know they were calling ADs? More likely calling their contemporaries (other dealers) and would be happy making $200 on the deal.

^^ this. Lots and lots of networking. Same way in the graded coin biz.

[carwashchris]

Originally Posted by m j b

How do you know they were calling ADs? More likely calling their contemporaries (other dealers) and would be happy making $200 on the deal.

To be fair, I don't know for sure. Except I heard the one guy at the booth tell another guy that was interested in a watch that he had three ADs he wanted to call and see if he could source the watch. That's what I'm going by and I've saw it at other booths.

[Roger Lococco]

Originally Posted by carwashchris

To be fair, I don't know for sure. Except I heard the one guy at the booth tell another guy that was interested in a watch that he had three ADs he wanted to call and see if he could source the watch. That's what I'm going by and I've saw it at other booths.

Entirely different setting, but I've seen that happen in Asia. Guy had a kiosk in a large discount shopping mall (MBK for those who go to Bangkok often). He had a bunch of nice watches and then the catalogs. If someone wanted a watch that he didn't have, he'd call his AD contacts. Rolex, Patek, etc.

[carwashchris]

The booth I remember most, had approx 100-200 Rolex's marked new stock.

[Roger Lococco]

Originally Posted by carwashchris

The booth I remember most, had approx 100-200 Rolex's marked new stock.

It’s pretty clear to me those are largely from ADs. If your livelihood depends on reselling unworn luxury watches, it’s so much more efficient to purchase from a few ADs than from private buyers.


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[Chester01]

Hmm, gray dealers getting priority at the AD....gasp!

[brandrea]

What a nutty world we live in.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by brandrea

What a nutty world we live in.

This is all fairly recent. Hopefully, things will resemble a bit of normalcy in 2023... or 2025. Just pivot, keep Rolex contacts and requests, yet broaden to other brands.

[Cigars&Watches]

Maybe Rolex HQ should send their secret shoppers to these trade shows. They could easily pick up serial numbers and trace back to unscrupulous ADs… if they cared that is…

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

This is all fairly recent. Hopefully, things will resemble a bit of normalcy in 2023... or 2025. Just pivot, keep Rolex contacts and requests, yet broaden to other brands.

I hope you’re right Steven and I agree, plenty of other great brands to discover

[VegasBaby]

Originally Posted by Cigars&Watches

Maybe Rolex HQ should send their secret shoppers to these trade shows. They could easily pick up serial numbers and trace back to unscrupulous ADs… if they cared that is…

They don’t!!!

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I hope you’re right Steven and I agree, plenty of other great brands to discover

Me too, just not sure how the 'correction' will happen. I've given in to the 'new normal' until then, and so patience is key combined with deep passion, and sympathize with today's insanity. Want to hear crazy, got the Hamilton PSR MTX when first available because I love sci-fi, take a look at the market for it now. I mean, reeeeally? C'mon! Really?!?

Anywho...

My Plan
----------
Smartly find those hidden jewels, because hopefully Hypemeisters only fall for the Popular Girls in class. Bvlgari's Octo is still possible. For me, take a chance, have fun, have fun... have fun finding a few of those child-like under $1k pieces (which never fail to bring a smile). Sure some pieces only months ago were 'easier to find', today they may be a challenge to procure, such as Czapek or MB&F, yet even those incredible masterpieces are still possible versus the mythical FPJ imho.

In some ways, this new normal has been an interesting exercise and learning experience. The trick will be for the timepiece industry to hype everything as wide as possible to as many as possible, so when things adjust / correct the consumer pool remains large enough to support the 'industry infrastructure'.

jmho

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by Cigars&Watches

Maybe Rolex HQ should send their secret shoppers to these trade shows. They could easily pick up serial numbers and trace back to unscrupulous ADs… if they cared that is…

Honestly I don’t think Rolex HQ cares. Any hype for the brand is good hype. It keeps us all craving and wanting more. Sadly, the real power is in the hands of the consumers that are blinded. How do we fix this? Simple, we stop buying the watches. The hard part is no one will do it because as a people we all love having this feeling that we have what someone else craves or doesn’t have.

I’m not saying that I am not guilty of this. Just starting to realize more how crazy and ridiculous it is.


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[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by carwashchris

On my way home from the Miami convention center. Just thought I'd share my observations. A lot more brand new rolexes than I ever expected to see. Probably close to 1,000 maybe 1500. The gray dealers at the booths were literally calling ADs trying to source watches for customers standing at the booth. I'm not in the market for anything new except an OP of color like many of us. Kind of disappointing. To see it in action.

Was this the antique and jewelry show?

[train-time]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Hmm, gray dealers getting priority at the AD....gasp!

Rest assured that the AD is pocketing a lot more this way than giving it to the next guy on their list at MSRP.

[sski]

will Rolex take a page out from the AP / Journe playbook and phase out AD's, open up company Boutiques? Might happen if the madness is unrelenting.

[sski]

Originally Posted by VegasBaby

They don’t!!!

I believe they definitely care but haven't quite figured out the response. Too much greed is never good....turning down an entire generation of buyers is not a good look. In the long run it will damage the brand; Rolex will figure it out eventually.

[ajw45]

I'd rather pay full price on a Breguet then feed this distinctly not-luxury grey market of hustlers. I believe there can be some value add for sourcing rare and out of production watches, matching buyers and sellers, etc, but just hoarding new and honestly ubiquitous product to mark it up and move it on is crap.

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by ajw45

I'd rather pay full price on a Breguet then feed this distinctly not-luxury grey market of hustlers. I believe there can be some value add for sourcing rare and out of production watches, matching buyers and sellers, etc, but just hoarding new and honestly ubiquitous product to mark it up and move it on is crap.

You make a very valid point. The current hype is very similar to what happens in the sneaker game too.


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[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Hmm, gray dealers getting priority at the AD....gasp!

Exactly. When you pay the premiums you’re buying hype and false scarcity. Nothing else. These watches have a distribution chain that results in the end user paying 3x msrp.


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[GreenLantern]

The whole thing is a big joke.

[WatchesNBlondes]

Still crazy when Rolex is shutting down ADs that grey dealers still have existing ADs they're getting stock from. It's like finding out who the supplier is for the drug dealer. With a little effort, they'll get caught, and all for a little extra profit.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Exactly. When you pay the premiums you’re buying hype and false scarcity. Nothing else. These watches have a distribution chain that results in the end user paying 3x msrp.


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I know. This my comments. I started saying this about 2 years ago and no one wanted to hear it. Many people here were outraged, and slowly it’s becoming widely believed. It’s always been in front of peoples eyes, they just didn’t want to see it.

Now, one can argue that the premiums being paid are to bypass AD games. With the AD you have to spend 100k to get that Daytona, with the gray premium, you pay them a premium for the service of no games and a watch on your wrist overnight. In some ways they gray is serving a role here. AD are just doing what fashion has done for a long time, using certain goods for rewards of being a good customer. Because they hold back those pieces as rewards, it gives the illusion of scarcity. They are not that scarce, but folks that have them want to believe they have something scarce that others can’t possess.


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[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Chester01

I know. This my comments. I started saying this about 2 years ago and no one wanted to hear it. Many people here were outraged, and slowly it’s becoming widely believed. It’s always been in front of peoples eyes, they just didn’t want to see it.

Now, one can argue that the premiums being paid are to bypass AD games. With the AD you have to spend 100k to get that Daytona, with the gray premium, you pay them a premium for the service of no games and a watch on your wrist overnight. In some ways they gray is serving a role here. AD are just doing what fashion has done for a long time, using certain goods for rewards of being a good customer. Because they hold back those pieces as rewards, it gives the illusion of scarcity. They are not that scarce, but folks that have them want to believe they have something scarce that others can’t possess.


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Here’s the thing i don’t get though …if I spend 100k at a jewelry store - I get 100k worth of stuff ie diamonds and gold for the wife or SO to give on special occasions or just because. I then get offered a Daytona.

If I buy a Daytona for 45-50k I’m spending 30-35k over msrp and essentially getting a a Daytona and pissing away the rest. I have nothing else to show for it.

I’ve had a relationship with my AD in 2015 so they knew me. Life events have necessitated that I buy gold and diamonds. Just so happens they know I like watches and offered me hot pieces.


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[BillA]

I am surprised with Covid that they actually had the show and that people attended.

[VDMTom]

Originally Posted by BillA

I am surprised with Covid that they actually had the show and that people attended.

It’s Miami lol

[Zuger]

Great show if you got US$250K for this Hublot that looks like a Ferrari engine and you wind it with a screwdriver.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Here’s the thing i don’t get though …if I spend 100k at a jewelry store - I get 100k worth of stuff ie diamonds and gold for the wife or SO to give on special occasions or just because. I then get offered a Daytona.

If I buy a Daytona for 45-50k I’m spending 30-35k over msrp and essentially getting a a Daytona and pissing away the rest. I have nothing else to show for it.

I’ve had a relationship with my AD in 2015 so they knew me. Life events have necessitated that I buy gold and diamonds. Just so happens they know I like watches and offered me hot pieces.


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Agree 100%. Well said and bravo!
I like buying my wife and family nice things and I like buying them from nice people. Our AD and SA are super nice and A1 types. I would be buying these items anyway most likely from here there and everywhere as I used to in the past. But since we established such a great relationship we buy 100% everything only from our AD and they in kind do what they can for us on the watch side. No complaints on that issue. It’s a two way street and a game of patience. For me I think we’re in a win win relationship.
Especially in these crazy times, I scratch my head everyday at what’s going on.


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