Watch Collecting in the 2020s vs 90s Beanie Baby Craze

[FrequentTrain]

This analogy to the Beanie Baby craze is not lost on me and wanted others to weigh on what they think is the realistic outlook on luxury watches over the remainder of this decade. “Zach Goes to the Movies: Beanie Baby Mania, and a Warning to Watch Collectors” https://wornandwound.com/zach-goes-t...ch-collectors/

Those people in the documentary championing beanie babies were saying the same thing about beanie babies that most people are saying now about hot watches (looking mostly at you SS Rolex, RO and ss Patek (also some of the emerging current and former independents)). I’ll give it to us WIS that there is a better proven intrinsic value in watches but these red hot watch models are definitely in speculative territory with the recent pace of appreciation. My opinion is that those rushing in now for investment/speculative reasons are likely not appreciating the risk versus return profile of watches. Those who bought at or near msrp or values from a few years back should see a good return but think current values will return back to value representing a normal return before the end of this decade.

Make watch collecting great again! Looking forward to hearing others’ opinions and sure to hear from some bulls/trolls who want to ignore this kind of debate.

[TunaTuna]

I hope one day you can get your Submariner from the AD for retail. My fingers are crossed for you, keep us posted

[FrequentTrain]

Originally Posted by TunaTuna

I hope one day you can get your Submariner from the AD for retail. My fingers are crossed for you, keep us posted

Haha. Troll #1 but more of a GMT guy myself.

[Tim Plains]

Beanie Babies have a niche market, whereas the market for Rolex is literally half of the world's population.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

As with any irrational exuberance those rushing in for investment/speculative reasons are already too late. Inevitably there will be a correction but probably not a crash short of an asteroid strike however those of us who bought watches for pure enjoyment are immune to this.

[TheWatchmen]

If the economy goes into a recession, things like Rolex prices dipping or at least stalling will happen…but this IMO is apples to oranges. Rolex is not Beanie Babies. I only say that because what they produce has been known for quality for close to 100 years, not really a fad, though I understand the parallels the author is drawing upon.

[FrequentTrain]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

As with any irrational exuberance those rushing in for investment/speculative reasons are already too late. Inevitably there will be a correction but probably not a crash short of an asteroid strike however those of us who bought watches for pure enjoyment are immune to this.

Well said but disagree a bit on the crash aspect for the hottest models. Just look at prices from a month ago through now - big increases (excepting turquoise OPs, as that seems to have died down a little).

Example is the “John Mayer” Daytona (116508) albeit these prices are a little high (but consistently high through the chart’s timeline of one month). Also acknowledging that this has another reason why it’s currently rocketing — due to purported discontinuation, which also was key driving trend on the Beanie Baby documentary .

[FrequentTrain]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

If the economy goes into a recession, things like Rolex prices dipping or at least stalling will happen…but this IMO is apples to oranges. Rolex is not Beanir Babies

There is no argument being advanced that beanie babies, as goods or as a brand, are like luxury watches or Rolexes, as goods or those brands. Just an analogy to the speculative exuberance that we’re all witnessing. Perhaps should’ve used the 90s tech boom analogy I suppose but tried to tie this into the article in the OP and also the notion of these being things we have traditionally collected but now with more speculators rushing in with pure investment motives.

I’d say oranges are more of a consumer staple item versus watches being a consumer discretionary good. No one “needs” a luxury watch.

[RoyalOac]

People need to stop it with the beanie-baby comparison.

This comparison is beaten to death with any "craze" , as much as the Warren Buffett quote, "be greedy when others are fearful" is beaten to death when stock-trading novices are in denial when they catch a falling knife.

[dpt.calvin]

Originally Posted by FrequentTrain

No one “needs” a luxury watch.

Yes, I do. Crucial to my survival I’d say.

[Sandpit]

I think the “hype” watches will ebb and flow, but the solid reliables (black subs, GMTs etc) will always remain popular and will always increase.

Certain watches have almost become a meme watch, and I can think of no greater contender than the turquoise OP (I refuse to use it’s popular name because it simply is not the colour or in any way linked to that brand).

I think the meme watches will be more likely in for a bumpy ride.

[FrequentTrain]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

I think the “hype” watches will ebb and flow, but the solid reliables (black subs, GMTs etc) will always remain popular and will always increase.

Certain watches have almost become a meme watch, and I can think of no greater contender than the turquoise OP (I refuse to use it’s popular name because it simply is not the colour or in any way linked to that brand).

I think the meme watches will be more likely in for a bumpy ride.

Agreed. But for now please trade your Daytona for my turquoise OP.

[Feb_29]

This article promotes documentary film.
Good luxury watches(Rolex, PP, AP) were always valuable buy for the money. "You wear a Rolex and get payed for it".

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

As with any irrational exuberance those rushing in for investment/speculative reasons are already too late. Inevitably there will be a correction but probably not a crash short of an asteroid strike however those of us who bought watches for pure enjoyment are immune to this.

Well said.
dP

[Madman37]

this is by far the dummest comparison. firstly a beanie baby was not considered a luxury item. it was something my granny could make. Agreed there could be a crash from grey prices to retail but that’s still expensive for a normal person. A beanie baby is not considered a status symbol like same with a tulip.

[bmrk]

Originally Posted by Madman37

this is by far the dummest comparison. firstly a beanie baby was not considered a luxury item. it was something my granny could make. Agreed there could be a crash from grey prices to retail but that’s still expensive for a normal person. A beanie baby is not considered a status symbol like same with a tulip.

Read my mind

[BNA/LION]

The Brand has always been Luxury and somewhat attainable if you had the desire and means to buy a Rolex watch. The new desire to "Invest" in watches I find odd but that and several other economic factors have created more interest, demand and hype around an already desirable brand. The wrist watch is back more than ever and all brands are enjoying this right now. IMHO the market is a little CrAzY and will cool off at some point. However, it's not going to drop like a lead balloon.

[Wee-Willie]

I have never (& will never) buy a Rolex as an investment...I buy em because they are fine timepieces & a piece of art & machinery.

I had 2nd thoughts before I bought my Day Date this month. I had bought a new car in July & the DD was just around $15k less...but, I spend around 4-5 hours a week in my car, but wear my watch at least 23 hours a day.

Buy what you LOVE & Enjoy it!!

[dEagle]

Originally Posted by Wee-Willie

I have never (& will never) buy a Rolex as an investment...I buy em because they are fine timepieces & a piece of art & machinery.

I had 2nd thoughts before I bought my Day Date this month. I had bought a new car in July & the DD was just around $15k less...but, I spend around 4-5 hours a week in my car, but wear my watch at least 23 hours a day.

Buy what you LOVE & Enjoy it!!

At least 23 hours a day? Assuming you sleep with your watch on the wrist, what's the extra hour for?

[FrequentTrain]

Excerpt from a paper (Christian Wollsheid) below on the dot com bubble that describes what this post is about. And then whether you think the current market represents a bubble. I think we’re in a still growing bubble that has additional run left in it.

The thinking that we’ve entered a “new era” of watch collecting is a dangerous one.

//

There exist various speculations about the initial causes of these bubbles (see table 1). One thing that is certain is that there often exists an irrational enthusiasm at the stock exchange that supports that asset prices escalate. Throughout those price escalations investors get influenced by ‘feedback effects’, e.g. when a share that they own rises in prices or when other investors make big amounts of money. “The fact that so many people are participating in the scheme makes it appear safe at the same time that the perception that others are getting rich makes it appear too good to pass up.”[7] This leads to the situation that more and more investors appear at the market and bid up prices higher and higher. “Soon the whole market becomes convinced that the old fundamentals of valuation no longer apply and that the world has entered a ‘new era’. The future is conceived of as something fundamentally different from (and better than) the past.”[8]

There is a strong over-confidence and believe that the price level will never go down again. A vicious circle arises: Investors explain price increases trough a visionary, nearly pathetic cause, for instance the ‘new era’. Nobody seems to understand that the prices escalate because of the increasing buying activities of the investors themselves.[9]

[DRS Enabled]

Rolexes are cheap right now. They've evolved as a brand and are no longer the everyday tool watch company of the past. That's Tudor now. Today it's a full on luxury brand. $20k Sub / $30k Pepsi / $50k Daytona is a fair price to own the same watch as the who's who of the world whether it's Messi, Ronaldo, LeBron, Drake. That just sounds fair to me.

When Subs are worth the down payment for a house then I think we're in a bubble.

[Fleetlord]

Don West hawking Beanie Babies is pure gold.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7aW71NUJZ4&t=123s

Ultimately there was too much production and distribution for the bears to hold any value…once the floodgates opened even more to cash in, then values plummeted.

[FrequentTrain]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Don West hawking Beanie Babies is pure gold.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7aW71NUJZ4&t=123s

Ultimately there was too much production and distribution for the bears to hold any value…once the floodgates opened even more to cash in, then values plummeted.

Guy is going to have a heart attack over some polyester and cotton stuffing.

[1William]

There is still plenty of room for growth on the Rolex prices. Look at PP or AP and see where the brand is going. Too much demand for not enough product. Will prices move down at some point? Of course, just like everything before it goes up again.

[LewisHamilton#2]

you can't wear a beanie baby on your wrist and flex

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by FrequentTrain

Will SS Rolex, SS Patek, etc at grey mkt prices outperform the market (thru 2030)?

Outperform what market over the next eight years?

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

As with any irrational exuberance those rushing in for investment/speculative reasons are already too late. Inevitably there will be a correction but probably not a crash short of an asteroid strike however those of us who bought watches for pure enjoyment are immune to this.

Agreed. A welcomed breath of common sense in these threads.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Outperform what market over the next eight years?

The market for Omegas, Oris, Tag's. Obviously.

[nosignalbmwdriver]

if 1% of china’s population want a rolex that’s 14 million in demand vs 800k watches yearly

[Aclockworkblue]

Put your money in tulips