Do ADs know ahead of time on discontinued watches?

[BMWMotoRider]

It seems that at some point in the first few months of each year the ADs are told what their approximate allocation is going to be of the different references for the year. Therefore, couldn’t they somewhat safely assume what is being discontinued by the watches with no allocation or only corresponding to what they have received in the first few months.

I’m still hoping for what I believe is a somewhat easier reference (SD 43)but have concern it might be discontinued. I’m having zero luck purchasing one and found out today that my closest AD that they have not received a single one this year.

I’m thinking about going grey especially if it is being discontinued but really don’t want to support the grey market.

[herts9]

They do not know in advance. Any that say they do are pulling your leg.

[WatchGuy1966]

Some do, some don't.

[Danny83]

Maybe a few days before I kept asking mine today LOL no luck

[srmatth82]

I feel like they do have a heads up and have to get rid of the soon to be discontinued items before the official discontinuation. Why I say this, I was able to get my 116710 BLNR as a first time buyer a month before discontinuation and was able to get my Hulk 2 weeks before discontinuation from a separate AD. It always made me feel like they had to move these pieces and I was in the right place at the right time.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by BMWMotoRider

It seems that at some point in the first few months of each year the ADs are told what their approximate allocation is going to be of the different references for the year. Therefore, couldn’t they somewhat safely assume what is being discontinued by the watches with no allocation or only corresponding to what they have received in the first few months.

I’m still hoping for what I believe is a somewhat easier reference (SD 43)but have concern it might be discontinued. I’m having zero luck purchasing one and found out today that my closest AD that they have not received a single one this year.

I’m thinking about going grey especially if it is being discontinued but really don’t want to support the grey market.

For what it's worth, I was at my AD a few weeks ago picking up and while I was there the Tudor reps came and held court and they flat out said "this will be discontinued" while pointing into the case. Now, we were 25 feet away and he was closely surrounded by the staff and I simply don't care what Tudor discontinues, so no idea what the models were, but they were very upfront about new case decor and that they were planning on delivering more watches this year than last. Got no details, and again don't really care what Tudor is up to. It was much more interesting to me in terms of "that's a nice way to conduct business." They seemed to be very friendly and known to the entire staff.

[Harry-57]

I would be inclined to wait to see if/when it is discontinued before looking for one on the grey market.

My AD knows in advance. How much in advance I couldn't say. I expect it varies. The Rolex buyer at my AD has contact with them and has meetings with regional managers, marketing managers etc. They don't just sit around waiting for the next box to arrive. I don't know if Rolex has reps who visit ADs. I haven't seen or heard of one but they might exist.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by herts9

They do not know in advance. Any that say they do are pulling your leg.

This

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by WatchGuy1966

Some do, some don't.

All don’t.
Merely speculation

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

All don’t.
Merely speculation

This!

[jamesthejeweller]

Originally Posted by BMWMotoRider

It seems that at some point in the first few months of each year the ADs are told what their approximate allocation is going to be of the different references for the year. Therefore, couldn’t they somewhat safely assume what is being discontinued by the watches with no allocation or only corresponding to what they have received in the first few months.

I’m still hoping for what I believe is a somewhat easier reference (SD 43)but have concern it might be discontinued. I’m having zero luck purchasing one and found out today that my closest AD that they have not received a single one this year.

I’m thinking about going grey especially if it is being discontinued but really don’t want to support the grey market.

ADs, specifically for Rolex, are left guessing, I have first hand knowledge that a close friend and Rolex AD did not get one single Yellow Gold+Green john Mayer Daytona in 2020 which got us all thinking that it would be discontinued in 2021, which it didn't - The information and first hand knowledge I have suggests that ADs can make guesses, but Rolex treats ADs like mushrooms, "...feed them shit and keep them in the dark..." to borrow a phrase.

With regards to the launch events, I have the following first hand experience when I used to get invites to Basel; back in the Basel World days, you would arrive a day or two before the launch, then on the day before the launch you would schedule a meeting with your regional or national Rolex rep. The meetings would start at 8am and run pretty much until midnight on the day before the launch, so the ADs may have a 12 hour heads up whereby they know what is new and what is discontinued. There are also various press and social meetings throughout this day so that articles can be written and edited for print or publishing the morning of launch.

I can only infer that this same set-up will happen for W&W, I still keep in good contact with all of my AD network and they have all left for Geneva this morning, we should hear first whisperings by Midnight tonight

J

[Driver8]

I think a few ADs get a bit of a heads up about forthcoming developments - either discontinuations or new releases. On a few of occasions over the years my AD has said some things in a very nonchalant way a few days before either Basel or W&Ws that have turned out to be absolutely spot-on.

So he's either been an extremely good predictor, or he's known a few things in advance. That said, I don't think it's much lead time, so pretty much irrelevant to anything, other than interest/novelty-value.

[jamesthejeweller]

Originally Posted by Driver8

I think a few ADs get a bit of a heads up about forthcoming developments - either discontinuations or new releases. On a few of occasions over the years my AD has said some things in a very nonchalant way a few days before either Basel or W&Ws that have turned out to be absolutely spot-on.

So he's either been an extremely good predictor, or he's known a few things in advance. That said, I don't think it's much lead time, so pretty much irrelevant to anything, other than interest/novelty-value.

ADs get no prior warning. As a former investor and owner of a chain of Rolex ADs, I can confirm that the only heads up we used to get was on the day of Basel World, and even then we had to fight to have an early appointment with our National Rolex Rep, the appointments ran from 8am pretty much up until midnight in private rooms off of the expo floor, and we were sworn not to disseminate any info to clients or fellow ADs, this may have changed with the dominance of social media, but the facts are, ADs have no idea until a max of 12 hours before launch.

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by jamesthejeweller

ADs get no prior warning. As a former investor and owner of a chain of Rolex ADs, I can confirm that the only heads up we used to get was on the day of Basel World, and even then we had to fight to have an early appointment with our National Rolex Rep, the appointments ran from 8am pretty much up until midnight in private rooms off of the expo floor, and we were sworn not to disseminate any info to clients or fellow ADs, this may have changed with the dominance of social media, but the facts are, ADs have no idea until a max of 12 hours before launch.

I guess my AD is just a better predictor than most armchair enthusiasts then! Good to know.

[rmwill]

Someone with FACTS on TRF. Time to play the lottery.

Originally Posted by jamesthejeweller

ADs get no prior warning. As a former investor and owner of a chain of Rolex ADs, I can confirm that the only heads up we used to get was on the day of Basel World, and even then we had to fight to have an early appointment with our National Rolex Rep, the appointments ran from 8am pretty much up until midnight in private rooms off of the expo floor, and we were sworn not to disseminate any info to clients or fellow ADs, this may have changed with the dominance of social media, but the facts are, ADs have no idea until a max of 12 hours before launch.

[brandrea]

I’d just go gray on that reference. It doesn’t trade significantly over the MSRP

[jets]

Rolex would have to depend on AD's to keep their mouths shut. ADs know nothing ahead of time.

[classicalthunder]

no Rolex, but my AD said that the Patek 5196 was being discontinued months before it teh discontinuation became public

[jamesthejeweller]

Originally Posted by classicalthunder

no Rolex, but my AD said that the Patek 5196 was being discontinued months before it teh discontinuation became public

My Patek AD sent me the email they received from their regional office with the discontinued models struck through.

I think Patek takes a much different stance on their releases than Rolex.

[Ravager135]

Yes and no. They are not directly told what watches are being discontinued in any sort of pre-release. They DO however get master catalogues that may not have watches available that were previously there. This happened in two instances in the recent past. TRF was well aware that the non-GV Milgauss models were going to be discontinued before it was really public knowledge as well as the ceramic 40mm Sea-Dweller that ran for a few years. Now you could say that THIS was the notification that the models were being discontinued, but it wasn't out there the way everything is announced today.

This seems to not be the case so much anymore, but prior to Basel (in the past), Rolex would update the master catalogue and in some years certain models would be missing. Typically ADs will get these first. The new master catalogue did not have the new models in it because even though they would be released a few months later, they typically weren't available until the fall. I distinctly remeber a few years where there were a few months where we knew what models were going to be discontinued prior to the announcement of the newer models. It also wasn't really a big deal since it was Rolex reducing a particular line, not necessarily getting rid of it altogether. People also didn't freak out over these minor tweaks and price speculation they way people do now. The price of non-GV Milgauss watches didn't go through the roof when this happened. There was even a time where there was only the Submariner and DSSD and Rolex wasn't producing a ceramic Sea-Dweller at all. In recent years a lot of this has changed.

[WatchGuy1966]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

All don’t.
Merely speculation

Some do, some don’t.


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[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by WatchGuy1966

Some do, some don’t.


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I stand by my comment.
All don’t. Some will say they do, but I believe they don’t.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by WatchGuy1966

Some do, some don’t.


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Saying it twice doesn't make it true.....

[BMWMotoRider]

Thanks for all the comments. I guess at this point it is a wait and see with the Sea Dweller 43.

[WatchGuy1966]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

I stand by my comment.
All don’t. Some will say they do, but I believe they don’t.

I think you have good reason to doubt, as Rolex is a master at keeping secrets.

But I believe that "some do, some don't." Cause I have seen it. But to be fair, I could revise for your benefit "Some do, Most don't."

Originally Posted by GW44

Saying it twice doesn't make it true.....

Some do, Some don't.

Saying it a third time doesn't make it any more true than the first two times I said it.

Yet, it's true on its own whether I say it or you don't believe it.





But let's stop arguing this and instead pour a virtual whiskey and get excited for what we are able to get.