Some newfound hope at the AD

[owl.]

Hey all!

I have a friend that is the watch guy at the AD. He's been there for years.

I stopped by to say hi and just chat, not really to talk about watches.
The topic of "hot watches" recently dropping in market value, by about 10%, came up.

I thought this happed as America seems to be headed for a recession.

He says he thinks it is happening because ADs are receiving more watches.

So I asked him for details.

He said that previous years, they would receive 12 watches a month, but
he says, that recently they've received 24 watches a month, and that Rolex is saying they will send 30-40 watches a month soon.

So, he said, that the bubble seems to finally be bursting.

That those that want to make money off of watch, should sell NOW. Because of supply and demand of course.

Lastly, he said that enthusiasts, can be certain that they'll receive more calls soon.

Just wanted to share.

I hope all goes to plan!

[CarlOver]

Other dealers have said they are more watches than they ever have. I didn’t ask if it’s a few more or double since it doesn’t make a difference. Buy buying from AD seems like it’s going to get easier.

[owl.]

Originally Posted by CarlOver

Other dealers have t they are more watches than they ever have. I don’t ask if it’s a few more or double since it doesn’t make a difference. Buy buying from AD seems like it’s going to get easier.

Awesome! I'm glad you've heard/seen the same.

I also expect, with the increasing interest on home loans and credit cards in America, that things might in general slow down all across the board, to include these watches.

We can sit here and say that people that buy these watches won't be affected by a mini recession, but chances are that many buy them on credit cards anyway.

LOL!

[rmagoo57]

Recently visited two different AD's in my area, both had a good selection of "exhibition only" watches, a recent addition. Thinking this pipeline is now full so now all new stock can go towards direct sales. My theory for the increase.

[Tensai]

Agreed.

[Harry-57]

My AD could sell many more than they are allocated, but watches are coming through. They have recently reopened their SS Sub waiting lists. They have thrown non locals off their lists, plus anyone (apart from the VVIPs , I expect) who are on multiple lists for hot watches. Anyone who wants to be on a list needs to go in and speak to them personally. A healthy supply of Subs is a part of it, but the main drivers are their leaner waiting lists, tighter geographical selection criteria and refusal to enter into discussions with people by phone or email.

[AmirudinAbduk]

i got a sports model from an uk AD (214270) right before pandemic , pop in a few weeks ago. He said he can't sell me a sub unless i purchase classic rolex.
He brought out both OP green 41mm and 36mm for the wife, and some DJs Said it'll be a few months wait for these watches if i liked it and <12months for the Sub Date.

[temporarychicken]

This "exhibition only" directive was to get stuff back in the windows so the ADs actually looked in business externally.

They'll let you chat and try them on too

They are not exhibition models. They're normal watches.

And like any normal Rolex, you ain't buying them at RRP.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by owl.

Hey all!

I have a friend that is the watch guy at the AD. He's been there for years.

I stopped by to say hi and just chat, not really to talk about watches.
The topic of "hot watches" recently dropping in market value, by about 10%, came up.

I thought this happed as America seems to be headed for a recession.

He says he thinks it is happening because ADs are receiving more watches.

So I asked him for details.

He said that previous years, they would receive 12 watches a month, but
he says, that recently they've received 24 watches a month, and that Rolex is saying they will send 30-40 watches a month soon.

So, he said, that the bubble seems to finally be bursting.

That those that want to make money off of watch, should sell NOW. Because of supply and demand of course.

Lastly, he said that enthusiasts, can be certain that they'll receive more calls soon.

Just wanted to share.

I hope all goes to plan!

I continue to wonder how much diverting stock from Russia and Ukraine has helped with supply. I think Ukraine only had one AD but Russia had several that I would imagine soaked up a fair amount of watches.

Everything else is coming together at the same time...Rolex production is back up to speed post-Covid, and people are starting to travel again and divert money in that direction. Add to that inflation soaking up more dollars and the possibility of a recession. I think a lot of folks are going to get the call soon.

[Robf52]

Good news.

[owl.]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

I continue to wonder how much diverting stock from Russia and Ukraine has helped with supply. I think Ukraine only had one AD but Russia had several that I would imagine soaked up a fair amount of watches.

Everything else is coming together at the same time...Rolex production is back up to speed post-Covid, and people are starting to travel again and divert money in that direction. Add to that inflation soaking up more dollars and the possibility of a recession. I think a lot of folks are going to get the call soon.

I hadn't thought of that, but that is a valid point.

Right, we'll see where it all goes!

[garyk]

Originally Posted by owl.

Hey all!

I have a friend that is the watch guy at the AD. He's been there for years.

I stopped by to say hi and just chat, not really to talk about watches.
The topic of "hot watches" recently dropping in market value, by about 10%, came up.

I thought this happed as America seems to be headed for a recession.

He says he thinks it is happening because ADs are receiving more watches.

So I asked him for details.

He said that previous years, they would receive 12 watches a month, but
he says, that recently they've received 24 watches a month, and that Rolex is saying they will send 30-40 watches a month soon.

So, he said, that the bubble seems to finally be bursting.

That those that want to make money off of watch, should sell NOW. Because of supply and demand of course.

Lastly, he said that enthusiasts, can be certain that they'll receive more calls soon.

Just wanted to share.

I hope all goes to plan!

I think you are correct. 5 weeks from a new boutique store opening near me, I had my new green bezel submariner date…that’s the first time any of the several ADs where I have contacts even offered me something since 2015…

[JRell]

Heard the same thing from ADs here, great to hear!

[Denver Dick]

In the past I have collected Golden and Silver Age comic books, pristine M1 Garand rifles, pristine pre-1995 Smith & Wesson revolvers and pistols, and rare coins. When I would discuss how prices keep rising with other collectors and folks in general, the phrase would come up, "Hey, you know they ain't making 'em anymore, right?" The problem with Rolex watches is that they are still make them and, from what I have read on this forum, they're going to be making even more. With respect to the ridiculous secondary market prices, it will probably turn out like the old saying, "What goes up will come down." And, probably by a lot and fairly quickly, too.

[EmpireCity]

Probably gets all his news from The TRF!

[Tim Plains]

I hope that carries over into Canada because we're always behind the times.

Sub Date, 31mm DJ, 38mm Tudor Royal, 3861 moonwatch, medium Cartier Tank Must, some $1,200 Longines. I bought all of these from one AD between September 2021 and present date. Maybe not a heavy hitter but that's a fair bit.

Watches I would like next are a blue Tudor BB58 and a BLNR or BLRO w/oyster. AD told me the BB58 should be doable this year, we're experiencing a regional shortage, but the GMT isn't likely this year or next.

[fskywalker]

Yeah yeah …





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[Porkbelli]

I dropped by local AD today and was told 1-2 years for my GMT request. Hmmmm.

[Hkspwrsche]

Originally Posted by Porkbelli

I dropped by local AD today and was told 1-2 years for my GMT request. Hmmmm.

Did you ask for a BLRO or Blue/Black? I have ceramic Pepsi finally but was told several times that they get more blue/black stock during my wait.

[owl.]

Originally Posted by garyk

I think you are correct. 5 weeks from a new boutique store opening near me, I had my new green bezel submariner date…that’s the first time any of the several ADs where I have contacts even offered me something since 2015…

Wow, that's great, congrats!

[owl.]

Originally Posted by Denver Dick

In the past I have collected Golden and Silver Age comic books, pristine M1 Garand rifles, pristine pre-1995 Smith & Wesson revolvers and pistols, and rare coins. When I would discuss how prices keep rising with other collectors and folks in general, the phrase would come up, "Hey, you know they ain't making 'em anymore, right?" The problem with Rolex watches is that they are still make them and, from what I have read on this forum, they're going to be making even more. With respect to the ridiculous secondary market prices, it will probably turn out like the old saying, "What goes up will come down." And, probably by a lot and fairly quickly, too.

Right.

According to a recent Watchfinder video, Rolex sold 1 million watches last year (I believe)

Omega sold 500k

Patek 90k

Something like that.

So Rolex sells a ton and will continue to do so.

[owl.]

Originally Posted by Tim Plains

I hope that carries over into Canada because we're always behind the times.

Sub Date, 31mm DJ, 38mm Tudor Royal, 3861 moonwatch, medium Cartier Tank Must, some $1,200 Longines. I bought all of these from one AD between September 2021 and present date. Maybe not a heavy hitter but that's a fair bit.

Watches I would like next are a blue Tudor BB58 and a BLNR or BLRO w/oyster. AD told me the BB58 should be doable this year, we're experiencing a regional shortage, but the GMT isn't likely this year or next.

That's interesting.

The local AD has had both Tudor bb58 sitting in the case before.

Sometimes some are there, sometimes not, but over here, the bb58 seems very attainable.

[Tzachi]

The only confirmed fact about Rolex shipments is that no one knows what they’re going to get until packing slip arrived.

All the rest are rumors, guessing and wishful thinking..

[Tqmb79]

Originally Posted by Tzachi

The only confirmed fact about Rolex shipments is that no one knows what they’re going to get until packing slip arrived.

All the rest are rumors, guessing and wishful thinking..

I think this has recently changed. My AD knows what they are getting in advance now. Was offered a PM piece before it arrived…

[Tzachi]

Originally Posted by Tqmb79

I think this has recently changed. My AD knows what they are getting in advance now. Was offered a PM piece before it arrived…

They can’t tell you what they will get in July (for example), they know what’s coming soon as they get the shipping documents (miss use of the wording packing slip above), as they wire in advance for the actual confirmed shipment.

[Bizcut1]

I think this is a whole lot of wishful thinking...

"My AD said..." is usually worth it's weight in tin...

[TimepieceRPP]

Thanks for sharing the news, I still haven't head from my AD though.

[waterking]

I want to subscribe to the "I have a friend..." form of prognosticating...especially when I have just finished reading a thread about someone being offered the Daytona OF-Meteorite....but.....it is just too hard to buy into this op's obvious sincerity. I have an all PM collection and the AD's I deal with are not saying anything remotely close to the op's information.

Think I'll just move on around to GO and collect my $200.

[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by owl.

Hey all!

I have a friend that is the watch guy at the AD. He's been there for years.

I stopped by to say hi and just chat, not really to talk about watches.
The topic of "hot watches" recently dropping in market value, by about 10%, came up.

I thought this happed as America seems to be headed for a recession.

He says he thinks it is happening because ADs are receiving more watches.

So I asked him for details.

He said that previous years, they would receive 12 watches a month, but
he says, that recently they've received 24 watches a month, and that Rolex is saying they will send 30-40 watches a month soon.

So, he said, that the bubble seems to finally be bursting.

That those that want to make money off of watch, should sell NOW. Because of supply and demand of course.

Lastly, he said that enthusiasts, can be certain that they'll receive more calls soon.

Just wanted to share.

I hope all goes to plan!

it's very hard to believe that this AD used to get only 12 watches per month. How could this AD survive to be in the business to pay the rent and all the employees?

My SA at the boutique told me a year ago that they got more than 30 watches per week.

[ninjin]

More stock is coming through for sure (confirmed by AD) and the wait/wishlist's will be fullfilled much faster. Once these list's have been exhausted then we will see the watches back in the windows for sale. This will take time but it will happen.

Due to the nature of the beast, the waitlist reduction time will be exponential because many people on these 'lists' are people in there for expected profit. I'm not calling them all flippers as many will buy to wear, as their thinking is, "why not, I won't loose any money on it". As soon as they see the grey prices in a sustained downward trend, when they get the call, they will no longer follow through with the purchase.

Adding into the equation, the cost of living increases around the world, this year in my opnion will see substantial reductions in grey/used prices. By the end of the year, I expect grey/used pricing to be back to 2020 pricing.