AP RO wait times and secondary market

[FiveSigma]

Hi,

It looks like getting an AP RO (15500) is nearly impossible for a first-time customer.

I wonder - AP staff assures everyone how they really care what hands each watch gets sold to and how the head office approves every customer, however, when you look at online shops, Chrono24 *alone* has ~ 40 (forty) 15500st grey dials just in the US. Vast majority of year 2020 and later.

If you take into account that there is a total of ~ dozen AP boutiques in the US and each gets 'just a few of each dial color' per year, you are looking at more than half of all 15500st greys sold in the US in the last 2 years *already* being flipped online. Meaning *most*, not some, went to scalpers.

And you can't blame authorized dealers as AP ended their AD program in 2020.

It's not a good look for the brand, no?

Why is the AP head office not doing anything about it?

I wonder if any of you have any inside view/sentiment on how the company views it.

[GS93108]

AP HQ is well aware of the fubar that is this year, of their own making. The horse has gone...

[Vivalas]

I can’t answer your questions, but what I would say is that, do half the watches on chrono even exist? I’ve got the impression in the past that multiple dealers may be advertising the same watch and many don’t even have the watch - if they get a buyer they source one from their contacts. I can’t say for certainty, but maybe there’s a lot less than the 40 grey dials you mention?

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by Vivalas

do half the watches on chrono even exist?

No. Anything with just the generic brand photo of the watch is not likely in hand for that dealer. Sure there might be exceptions but I can't understand the logic of "i'm going to list this for tens of tens of thousands of dollars, but I can't be asked to take a few photos of it." How does that inspire buyer confidence?

[JettyOne]

Originally Posted by Trailboss516

No. Anything with just the generic brand photo of the watch is not likely in hand for that dealer. Sure there might be exceptions but I can't understand the logic of "i'm going to list this for tens of tens of thousands of dollars, but I can't be asked to take a few photos of it." How does that inspire buyer confidence?

Buyers’ confidence come from seller’s feedbacks. C24 photos carousel are among the crappiest. No point to take actual photos really, as it’s impossible to show hairline scratches on C24.

Their photographic compression algorithm is the equivalent of MySpace in 1995 - - and I’m being generous here.

To OP, It’s no longer impossible to land an RO, as first AP. Roughly 8-12 months wait. I am co-sign a colleague for his first AP, looking optimistic from 2023 on.

[SMD]

Here we go again.

[squall1]

There's a lot wrong with this post, but I'll start with...why do you assume the watches located in the US came from the US distribution?

[jts278]

Agreed with squall’s post above, I wouldn’t say most APs for sale in HK are from HK buyers flipping either. They just come from different places. Currently the Euro and Yen are very cheap so a lot of dealers would be sourcing from there. With regard to AP blacklisting customers, it is very real and I’m sure most who flip their first RO would be blacklisted.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by FiveSigma

If you take into account that there is a total of ~ dozen AP boutiques in the US and each gets 'just a few of each dial color' per year, you are looking at more than half of all 15500st greys sold in the US in the last 2 years *already* being flipped online. Meaning *most*, not some, went to scalpers.

Your numbers/math are off by a large factor, starting from the quote that each boutique gets only a "few of each dial color per year". With 4 dial colors and 100 boutiques, that would mean total 41mm RO production is only about 1200/year. That would less than the number of Jumbos they have confirmed making per year, which is obviously non-sensical. Your production estimate is off by at least a factor of 5.

In addition, many of the ads on C24 are just fishing expeditions with a stock photo, where the watch will only be procured from other greys once the sale is secured.

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by FiveSigma

Hi,

It looks like getting an AP RO (15500) is nearly impossible for a first-time customer.

I wonder - AP staff assures everyone how they really care what hands each watch gets sold to and how the head office approves every customer, however, when you look at online shops, Chrono24 *alone* has ~ 40 (forty) 15500st grey dials just in the US. Vast majority of year 2020 and later.

If you take into account that there is a total of ~ dozen AP boutiques in the US and each gets 'just a few of each dial color' per year, you are looking at more than half of all 15500st greys sold in the US in the last 2 years *already* being flipped online. Meaning *most*, not some, went to scalpers.

And you can't blame authorized dealers as AP ended their AD program in 2020.

It's not a good look for the brand, no?

Why is the AP head office not doing anything about it?

I wonder if any of you have any inside view/sentiment on how the company views it.

Let me see if I can help correct some misconceptions in this post.

First off, it's not impossible to get an RO as your first purchase. There have been plenty of examples on this sub forum. You just have to put some work into it. It's about establishing a good rapport with an SA. It may take visits to multiple boutiques before you make that connection. I did this and ended up with an awesome SA at a great boutique. I've also introduced my sister in law and brother in law to my BT in May and she got her 50th RO by September and his RO might happen before the year is up.


Most of the listings you see online are not real listings. A good portion of them don't have the watch in hand. They are fishing for a buyer since they are able to source existing inventory from other grey dealers. There is always going to be leakage from the shrinking AD network around the world. With AP taking the distribution in house via boutiques, they are trying to better control the vetting process. The vetting process is not perfect by any means though. You are always going to have some slip through the cracks.

I also agree with @vogelphoenix. I think your production numbers are way off.

Blacklisting by AP is absolutely real. I know a VIP AP client who got taken off the allocation rotation because of a watch he had gifted got sold. Apparently the friend he gifted it to ended up selling the watch because he didn't connect with the piece. Once it got registered in the new owners name, it got flagged immediately. He had to jump through hoops to get back to good standing.

Watch allocations are determined by the BT manager. The Jumbo needs regional corporate approval. Complications and limited edition pieces like QP, Tourbillon, and Openworked need Switzerland approval.

Hope that helps.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by mickyd329

Let me see if I can help correct some misconceptions in this post.

First off, it's not impossible to get an RO as your first purchase. There have been plenty of examples on this sub forum. You just have to put some work into it. It's about establishing a good rapport with an SA. It may take visits to multiple boutiques before you make that connection. I did this and ended up with an awesome SA at a great boutique. I've also introduced my sister in law and brother in law to my BT in May and she got her 50th RO by September and his RO might happen before the year is up.


Most of the listings you see online are not real listings. A good portion of them don't have the watch in hand. They are fishing for a buyer since they are able to source existing inventory from other grey dealers. There is always going to be leakage from the shrinking AD network around the world. With AP taking the distribution in house via boutiques, they are trying to better control the vetting process. The vetting process is not perfect by any means though. You are always going to have some slip through the cracks.

I also agree with @vogelphoenix. I think your production numbers are way off.

Blacklisting by AP is absolutely real. I know a VIP AP client who got taken off the allocation rotation because of a watch he had gifted got sold. Apparently the friend he gifted it to ended up selling the watch because he didn't connect with the piece. Once it got registered in the new owners name, it got flagged immediately. He had to jump through hoops to get back to good standing.

Watch allocations are determined by the BT manager. The Jumbo needs regional corporate approval. Complications and limited edition pieces like QP, Tourbillon, and Openworked need Switzerland approval.

Hope that helps.

Do you mind sharing what jumping through hoops meant? Genuinely curious.

On my side from those I know seems like VVIP go untouched, and bottom tier VIP get torched quickly.

Finally and most importantly, can you please introduce me as a long lost 3rd cousin of your brother in law? I kid, I kid.

[dmash]

Just wait until next year and you can get whatever you want

[FiveSigma]

I appreciate everyone's comments on my post.

You made good points on listings with generic photos potentially referring to the same watch or watch to be sourced if a dealer receives inbound interest.

It's just it's been three years of waiting for me and no end in sight. Sigh.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by FiveSigma

I appreciate everyone's comments on my post.

You made good points on listings with generic photos potentially referring to the same watch or watch to be sourced if a dealer receives inbound interest.

It's just it's been three years of waiting for me and no end in sight. Sigh.

on another thread here, a member posted that he got allocated a white dial 15510 with no purchase history, So it's happening! put the past 3 years away in your mind and consider 2023 a new start :)

[Vince M.]

Give it another year. De escalating from peak insanity takes some time.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by FiveSigma

It's just it's been three years of waiting for me and no end in sight. Sigh.

If you are based in Canada you're not exactly starting from high ground when it comes to AP. Good luck!