Grey market pricing for SS RO and ROC

[R35GTR]

Hey all - what’s the general view on grey market SS RO and ROC pricing? Just this morning I saw a 37mm in the high 20s on Moda - first time I’ve seen that. Similarly im seeing 38mm ROC in the mid to low 50s (of course these are the non blue dial variants).

Do we think pricing pressure will continue downward? I don’t own either but have been building a relationship with an AD for 2 years and no idea whether one will happen for me so thinking of going grey while market is depressed.

[Ketan]

I have watches that are worth way less than what I paid. Brought because I like at the time, not for resale value. I can only suggest you do the same.

[S’portEye]

Originally Posted by Ketan

I have watches that are worth way less than what I paid. Brought because I like at the time, not for resale value. I can only suggest you do the same.

I don’t think he’s talking about resale.

Op, nobody can predict the future, so your guess is as good as anyone’s. If your are comfortable with today’s market price, buy it. Good luck!!

[Vince_76]

There’s has been no tested bottom on ROs and they continue to drop. Tell me one reason why this trend won’t continue.

Imo prices will continue to drop with fed tightening, QT, an impending recession, and lagged indicators of rate increases. ROs have been particularly hit hard. How much more will they drop? Who knows.

[R35GTR]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

There’s has been no tested bottom on ROs and they continue to drop. Tell me one reason why this trend won’t continue.

Imo prices will continue to drop with fed tightening, QT, an impending recession, and lagged indicators of rate increases. ROs have been particularly hit hard. How much more will they drop? Who knows.

Thanks, this is sort of what I’m feeling too. Rolex desirable models have stabilized and in some of the better cases are starting to tick up slightly (SS Daytona, BLRO). I’m wondering if the bottom for AP and PP are still to come given how high they got.

[PP&AP]

I don't follow this as closely across a wide range, but it seems that prices have largely stabilized for things like 15500s and 5167s. Is the bottom in? Who knows, but the vast majority of selloff is likely behind us.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by PP&AP

I don't follow this as closely across a wide range, but it seems that prices have largely stabilized for things like 15500s and 5167s. Is the bottom in? Who knows, but the vast majority of selloff is likely behind us.

I continue to see recent lows for run of the mill royal oaks and jumbos. Refer to WatchOut forum where myself (and others) have posted extensively on this.

[Ketan]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I continue to see recent lows for run of the mill royal oaks and jumbos. Refer to WatchOut forum where myself (and others) have posted extensively on this.

You da king!

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Ketan

You da king!

Ha thanks mate! I agree with your sentiments btw - buy what you like is the golden rule. Obviously want to feel good about the price, but if you’re keeping for the long term it’s less relevant.

[rolexandlange]

you can find the blue 15202st all day for 65k sitting and not selling. plenty of sellers still have pie in the sky offers hoping a sucker comes along. i still see some for sale asking 85-115k. i guess reality hasn't set in yet across the board.

and at the end of the day, 35k MSRP for the 16202ST, 65k for a 15202ST, or 90k for a grey 16202ST are all a lot of cheddar for the actual watch you're receiving for your hard earned $$. further, there are a lot fewer buyers wanting a jumbo than a pepsi or ceramic daytona.

i hope to add a jumbo someday.... for like 40k

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by rolexandlange

you can find the blue 15202st all day for 65k sitting and not selling. plenty of sellers still have pie in the sky offers hoping a sucker comes along. i still see some for sale asking 85-115k. i guess reality hasn't set in yet across the board.

and at the end of the day, 35k MSRP for the 16202ST, 65k for a 15202ST, or 90k for a grey 16202ST are all a lot of cheddar for the actual watch you're receiving for your hard earned $$. further, there are a lot fewer buyers wanting a jumbo than a pepsi or ceramic daytona.

i hope to add a jumbo someday.... for like 40k

100% agree. There’s a 15202 white dial (H serial) sitting for 48.5. Watch only though.

Jumbos will revert to the mean IMO

[CactusTreeFiddy]

These same sellers with ridiculous prices for jumbos (T ahem) have barely changed their prices for months, despite Fed news and the latest round of earnings reports

In short: prices go up very quickly, but come down very slowly

Be patient

[jgottsman11]

There have been 15450s and 15400s posted for $28,000 ish that aren't selling. I'd say get ready to go grey as it's an amazing time to buy and you can get a better deal than going through an AD anyways

[scottywein]

Not a bad time to go grey. The way AP keeps raising their prices you'll end up buying it at the same level anyway.

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by scottywein

Not a bad time to go grey. The way AP keeps raising their prices you'll end up buying it at the same level anyway.

I can’t speak globally but the way the cost of everything has rocketed in the U.K. in the last couple of years, I doubt AP’s price increases have been any different to the inflation we’ve had. I deal with a lot of varied businesses and their costs have risen beyond belief. Not a good thing, it all relative I guess.

[grahammackay86]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

100% agree. There’s a 15202 white dial (H serial) sitting for 48.5. Watch only though.

Jumbos will revert to the mean IMO

Hate getting into these debates but there is no way on Earth that Jumbo's will "revert to the mean".

The watch you mentioned is 12 years old, has no box, no papers, no service history, no receipt and can't even be guaranteed as genuine.

As others have mentioned here recently, each AP House/ Boutique receives a handful of jumbo's each year. You can bang on about the fed, recession all you want but the fact is there is no shortage of wealthy individuals and never will be. In times of recession the rich get richer, fact. That is, if a recession even happens, the outlook isn't as bad now as it was several months ago.

I've been in Dubai and London the last few weeks and I can assure you all the popular luxury brands still have queues just to get into the stores. AP, Rolex and Patek are no different. Hermes won't stop selling handbags and AP won't stop selling Royal Oaks.

Also the watch scene is different now, I got my first "luxury" watch 10 years ago, perhaps a handful of my friends would have noticed it back then. Nowadays, everyone knows it's a Rolex and more and more people know it's an AP or a Patek; this won't change either.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by grahammackay86

Hate getting into these debates but there is no way on Earth that Jumbo's will "revert to the mean".

The watch you mentioned is 12 years old, has no box, no papers, no service history, no receipt and can't even be guaranteed as genuine.

As others have mentioned here recently, each AP House/ Boutique receives a handful of jumbo's each year. You can bang on about the fed, recession all you want but the fact is there is no shortage of wealthy individuals and never will be. In times of recession the rich get richer, fact. That is, if a recession even happens, the outlook isn't as bad now as it was several months ago.

I've been in Dubai and London the last few weeks and I can assure you all the popular luxury brands still have queues just to get into the stores. AP, Rolex and Patek are no different. Hermes won't stop selling handbags and AP won't stop selling Royal Oaks.

Also the watch scene is different now, I got my first "luxury" watch 10 years ago, perhaps a handful of my friends would have noticed it back then. Nowadays, everyone knows it's a Rolex and more and more people know it's an AP or a Patek; this won't change either.

…ok. Your opinion

[PP&AP]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I continue to see recent lows for run of the mill royal oaks and jumbos. Refer to WatchOut forum where myself (and others) have posted extensively on this.

118 page thread....safe to say you are paying closer attention to this than me! I usually only buy retail and have no intention to sell anything. However, there are one or two out of production Pateks I would pickup if they fell a little further.

Out of curiosity, I scrolled through Moda listings for blue 15500s. ~50 in fall, fell to low 40s around year-end, but is now back up ~50 when looking at all the Jan/Feb listings.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by PP&AP

118 page thread....safe to say you are paying closer attention to this than me! I usually only buy retail and have no intention to sell anything. However, there are one or two out of production Pateks I would pickup if they fell a little further.

Out of curiosity, I scrolled through Moda listings for blue 15500s. ~50 in fall, fell to low 40s around year-end, but is now back up ~50 when looking at all the Jan/Feb listings.

45k for 15500 blue dial from 2019 seems pretty good to me. been sitting there for about 2 weeks already, I am sure you can negotiate a bit lower

https://nashvillewatch.com/product/a...st-box-papers/

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by PP&AP

118 page thread....safe to say you are paying closer attention to this than me! I usually only buy retail and have no intention to sell anything. However, there are one or two out of production Pateks I would pickup if they fell a little further.

Out of curiosity, I scrolled through Moda listings for blue 15500s. ~50 in fall, fell to low 40s around year-end, but is now back up ~50 when looking at all the Jan/Feb listings.

They’re in the 40s now actually. They haven’t bounced back at all

[s14roller]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I continue to see recent lows for run of the mill royal oaks and jumbos. Refer to WatchOut forum where myself (and others) have posted extensively on this.

You have posted before about wanting an AP and asking if they might view your involvement in certain groups as a negative. Each time I see a post from you it’s related to AP crashes. Perhaps you should be more worried about them seeing your desire for their watches to continue crashing

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by s14roller

You have posted before about wanting an AP and asking if they might view your involvement in certain groups as a negative. Each time I see a post from you it’s related to AP crashes. Perhaps you should be more worried about them seeing your desire for their watches to continue crashing

Alright man. Must be a slow day in your world to be hating on me. Lol

Perhaps you should make better use of your time.

By the way, the original poster just thanked me for my contributions and all the info. So it’s definitely helping some people. If you don’t like what I have to say, then don’t comment in this thread. You’re providing nothing of value. All your post did was try to son me.

Also, it’s the Internet… and I’m anonymous. My name isn’t even Vince. You sound a bit paranoid like AP corporate has a tail on me

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Alright man. Must be a slow day in your world to be hating on me. Lol

Perhaps you should make better use of your time.

By the way, the original poster just thanked me for my contributions and all the info. So it’s definitely helping some people. If you don’t like what I have to say, then don’t comment in this thread. You’re providing nothing of value. All your post did was try to son me.

Also, it’s the Internet… and I’m anonymous. My name isn’t even Vince. You sound a bit paranoid like AP corporate has a tail on me

Pretty sure Vince has never really advocated for the brand to crash. Instead, he (and many of us) are hoping the grey market continues to fall so we can get the pieces we want.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by psm11

Pretty sure Vince has never really advocated for the brand to crash. Instead, he (and many of us) are hoping the grey market continues to fall so we can get the pieces we want.

Thanks! Yes, in fact, it’s my favorite watch brand among the big three. I don’t agree with everything they do, of course, but their brand management, ethos, boutique, and house experience have all been exceptional.

Some folks (including the one that was trying to son me) conflate us wanting watches at reasonable prices with the downfall of a brand. These things are mutually exclusive. There’s no reason why a brand can’t prosper with their watches selling at or below retail on the secondary market. It baffles me that any watch enthusiast would have another way.

[VogelPhoenix]

Don't we have this thread already?

[Palex]

Originally Posted by grahammackay86

Hate getting into these debates but there is no way on Earth that Jumbo's will "revert to the mean".

The watch you mentioned is 12 years old, has no box, no papers, no service history, no receipt and can't even be guaranteed as genuine.

As others have mentioned here recently, each AP House/ Boutique receives a handful of jumbo's each year. You can bang on about the fed, recession all you want but the fact is there is no shortage of wealthy individuals and never will be. In times of recession the rich get richer, fact. That is, if a recession even happens, the outlook isn't as bad now as it was several months ago.

I've been in Dubai and London the last few weeks and I can assure you all the popular luxury brands still have queues just to get into the stores. AP, Rolex and Patek are no different. Hermes won't stop selling handbags and AP won't stop selling Royal Oaks.

Also the watch scene is different now, I got my first "luxury" watch 10 years ago, perhaps a handful of my friends would have noticed it back then. Nowadays, everyone knows it's a Rolex and more and more people know it's an AP or a Patek; this won't change either.

Couldn't agree more

[GWL2]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Don't we have this thread already?

I agree.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Don't we have this thread already?

Yes you’re right. Just realised this is similar to the Hong Kong thread that thankfully got moved off here.

[dh1]

Originally Posted by grahammackay86

Hate getting into these debates but there is no way on Earth that Jumbo's will "revert to the mean".

The watch you mentioned is 12 years old, has no box, no papers, no service history, no receipt and can't even be guaranteed as genuine.

As others have mentioned here recently, each AP House/ Boutique receives a handful of jumbo's each year.

What does "revert to mean" mean? :-) Used below retail? Close to retail? Used premium for instant gratification versus playing the boutique waiting game? 2019 levels? 2017 levels?

What are post-2012 15202STs listing for before everything went bonkers? Browsing TRF it looks like maybe (this could be kinda inaccurate):

2016-2017: low 20s
2018: <=30k
early 2019: mid 30s.
late 2019: high 30s / low 40s.
mid 2020: 40s
early 2021: 50s
2021 after discontinuation announcement but before 16202 announced: big jump: 70s, 80s+...
2022: peaking above 100k
2023: 70k and sinking

What is the demand "support" level where this settles when you take out all of the FOMO and arbitrage or growth expectation?