You Can Argue With Me But You Can't Argue With the Numbers

[cfidentification]

So here we are.... Your persuasion dictates your outlook and interpretation of the datum. Frankly, I don't really see this as a bad thing, but then again, I am not hanging a portion of my wealth on watches nor am I a dealer. To me, they are all tools, some of them may retain residual value but I am into watches because I enjoy them, not as a monetary vehicle. With any luck, with prices continuing to spiral downward this clears the way for enthusiasts to return to the market and obtain what they want without the hassle and runaround we've had to endure in recent years.

[brandrea]

I’ve never heard of the Rolex Index or Watchcharts.com, that said it would be nice if Rolex ADs had a mandate to sell a portion of their stock to enthusiasts. Maybe they need folks to fill out an application to qualify as such

[cfidentification]

Watch Charts are an interesting analytical tool which studies listings across the internet. They post interesting emails and even have a YouTube channel worth considering. I think some people try to squash them because they don't like what they have to say...

https://youtu.be/uz0fWtJxxVs?si=vW5TBZiAcnwJo7hm

[Podmornica]

Not only did the price collapse, but hardly anything moves. The stock is sitting for weeks unsold even at these lower prices. The demand is just not there anymore + the buyers are waiting for further price drops.

Lots of Rolex references is already sub msrp at grey dealers. They are the ones who actually need to follow the market trends. The AD are still clearing the years long accumulated wait lists and catching the last window lickers who will buy the full yellow gold yacht master models at retail price.

However, many are having the cold feet these days even at the AD prices and the lists are clearing fast since most of those that expressed their interest are nothing more than the flippers who are now ignoring the calls as they can't resell plain datejust at 30% profit next door like they could back in 2021.

The grey dealers are not even paying in cash anymore, unless it's a low ball offer. They will only take the watch for consignment.

[cfidentification]

You and I see eye to eye on this one. There are several indexes I would like to acquire but I am still waiting on further price drops as there are parties which should consider taking a loss on their inventory and selling what they can to get what they can out of it.

[stormshadow]

I think an option is missing that indicates "a combination of them all" as I feel all have contributed in some way. No different from other things that are in great demand but limited supply. Rolex just seems to be close (or at) the top of that list of luxury items.

[Rollei35]

Originally Posted by cfidentification

So here we are.... Your persuasion dictates your outlook and interpretation of the datum. Frankly, I don't really see this as a bad thing, but then again, I am not hanging a portion of my wealth on watches nor am I a dealer. To me, they are all tools, some of them may retain residual value but I am into watches because I enjoy them, not as a monetary vehicle. With any luck, with prices continuing to spiral downward this clears the way for enthusiasts to return to the market and obtain what they want without the hassle and runaround we've had to endure in recent years.

Of course I can argue with the numbers.
As a quant, statistician, I always argue with the numbers.
What's the sample size? what's the hypothesis, what's the t-value? what's the confidence interval? What's the degree of freedom?

[Calatrava r]

Demand is still very robust at ADs. Doesn't Wachcharts just measure used watch sale prices. Of course, as value retention dwindles, the field of buyers in the no risk of loss category will also fall.

[Dave O]

Originally Posted by cfidentification

So here we are.... Your persuasion dictates your outlook and interpretation of the datum. Frankly, I don't really see this as a bad thing, but then again, I am not hanging a portion of my wealth on watches nor am I a dealer. To me, they are all tools, some of them may retain residual value but I am into watches because I enjoy them, not as a monetary vehicle. With any luck, with prices continuing to spiral downward this clears the way for enthusiasts to return to the market and obtain what they want without the hassle and runaround we've had to endure in recent years.

I am in 100% agreement with this statement. I too don't care if the bottom falls out of the market as I am in it as an enthusiast and for the love of the watches I own. As you stated, if it did, it would make it a lot easier for us watch lovers to obtain the watches we want without the hassle.

[enjoythemusic]

M3 Money Supply (also see M2 and M1)

[Bartolo]

I'm tempted to say, "It's the economy, stupid." But it's more than that.

[illiguy]

I think you missed the root cause(s). Paul Newman Daytona auction in late 2017 + COVID + Crypto Bros = Scarce Demand with Lots of Overnight Money to Spend.

[Tylerlsu2008]

I think what could fix all of this is if ADs were allowed to sell at “market price” like a car dealership vs only retail. That would flush a lot of the BNIB grey market and kill flippers.

Also, I don’t think people used to collect Rolex like they do now. So collectors + straight speculators + current flex culture creates a massive issue. Not sure corporate Rolex is to blame at all. Of course, shady ADs have some blame, but winter will ultimately come for the ones that were arrogant / tools just like what will happen in car sales.

[samson66]

I think COVID had a lot to do with the Rolex bubble. People at home with money flowing in from all sides figured they dip into the watch market. Some for investment, others as a hobby. Everything got inflated. Unlike the cost of food, goods and services, at least watch prices are settling back down.

[Marcjvr]

Yes it’s safe to wear your Rolex when visiting…my bad I hit the wrong dead horse reply button

[CKLinLA]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

M3 Money Supply (also see M2 and M1)

Attachment 1401185

Excellent
Looks like we are all set

[mgsooner]

[Giovannibravo]

What about Yahoo Finance saying watches are investments?

[cfidentification]

Which begs the question of how Rolex demand blew up so quickly. There was a time in the past when you walked into an AD and picked out what you wanted. I think the only exception which comes to mind was Miami in the early 1980s because of cocaine trafficking and so much loose cash floating around people just spent money on anything. Like any commodity which balloons, it fuels itself until it blows itself out. I am not convinced there ever was really a supply problem for legit buyers, it became a problem when agents of secondary dealers got in the way. Still now, look at the postings for watches for sale, these watches have warranty cards in some cases weeks old. That is not buyer's remorse or angry spouses forcing sale.

[1William]

I always like data and this is an interesting chart. So many factors play into this.

[BraveBold]

Few things:
* look at the scaling of the chart’s axis … not exactly a price collapse
* want to see a price collapse? See long bonds and crypto vs highs
* speculative fervor was across many areas - not watches- or Rolex-specific
* key driver was money supply due to stimulus not seen since the New Deal
* supply / demand dictates price - grey dealers had some impact to amplify effects due to hoarding / choking direct supply. They may have the same (yet opposite) effect on the way down

[alphadweller]

I recently quit looking at the value of my watches. It's been down for 2 1/2 years and we haven't reached the bottom yet. Ignorance is bliss. Watches are meant to be worn and enjoyed, not speculated upon.

[Potawatomi]

You can't blame rolex. This isn't the only product or even industry that suffers from flippers looking to make a quick profit.

[Mystro]

My watches, sport cars, boats, etc… are a lifestyle I love and would be buying regardless of value retention. I love em and enjoy them far more than what I initially pay to play with them. I can’t imagine going through life looking at everything through a financial monocle??? It just seems to take the air and fun out the very reason you are buying them in the first place.

[turfmanjon]

Originally Posted by Mystro

My watches, sport cars, boats, etc… are a lifestyle I love and would be buying regardless of value retention. I love em and enjoy them far more than what I initially pay to play with them. I can’t imagine going through life looking at everything through a financial monocle??? It just seems to take the air and fun out the very reason you are buying them in the first place.

Agreed. These are all adult toys that are a luxury to have and enjoy. I want to enjoy the ride of life, not worry about the worth of my toys. My kids don’t. That’s what investments are for.


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[kieselguhr]

I love these threads. Goes great with popcorn…reading all the bitter, passionate responses from both sides with great chagrin. The guys who are so mad their investment Rolex got blocked vs. the guys who are so mad that their investment Rolex are plunging.

Anywho… looking forward to these price drops. Mostly interested in other brands but always nice to see more actual end users finally getting their coveted Rolex.

[enjoythemusic]

Time itself is your most valuable asset imho.

[Dave O]

Originally Posted by Mystro

My watches, sport cars, boats, etc… are a lifestyle I love and would be buying regardless of value retention. I love em and enjoy them far more than what I initially pay to play with them. I can’t imagine going through life looking at everything through a financial monocle??? It just seems to take the air and fun out the very reason you are buying them in the first place.

100% agreement. The problem, however, are those that buy not for the love of the watch, but to rather make a profit or to ensure it holds its value. They are not buying them for the same reason you and I are. They are also the ones that are contributing to a supply issue leaving us watch lovers waiting for our grail watch(s) to come in.

[Uppersouth]

Originally Posted by illiguy

I think you missed the root cause(s). Paul Newman Daytona auction in late 2017 + COVID + Crypto Bros = Scarce Demand with Lots of Overnight Money to Spend.

This

[Tanuki]

You also missed the most obvious cause “flippers”. If people were buying to keep the fuel for the craze would have been that much less.