5402 vs 15202 and Vintage Dealer Recommendations

[Watchman001]

All, considering a jumbo and trying to decide best course here. I am drawn to the superior sleekness and darker dial color of the 5402 vs the 15202, but vintage can be a bit of a minefield. Am I better off going with a recent 15202? Are there trusted vintage dealers for APs anyone can recommend? Finally, do prices look to be dropping more (should I wait?), or is the current market of mid 60s (15202) - mid/high 70s (5402) at bottom?

[Pixiedust]

Hello, This thread looks relevant. Can anybody recognize this 1960´s, 1970´s piece? It has a very rare electric blue dial which is stunning. I can see there are other extra flat watches but this seems to be a rare piece which I cannot find any information on and difficult to value. Its got a white gold case numbered 42036 and a blue sapphire on the crown. Calibre 2003. Pity I cant post a picture

[Watchman001]

You just hijacked my thread.

[edo]

I can't find it now but there is a thread on a Italian watch forum about vintage Jumbos that pop up for sale and that thread is 100 times scarier than any horror story I ever watch or heard in my life

There are a bunch of guys with a highest knowledge of vintage AP that contributed and I think one of them is guy that published this guide

https://www.calameo.com/read/002325141c9abc217352e

There is also a English version of this guide somewhere...

After all the scams the biggest auction houses and their vintage watch experts do and all watch media ignore that I will never go a full vintage road...

[Pixiedust]

Originally Posted by Watchman001

You just hijacked my thread.

Sorry didn´t mean to. Anyways its eye candy, never seen this dial

[bourgognebob]

Originally Posted by Pixiedust

Sorry didn´t mean to. Anyways its eye candy, never seen this dial

You say sorry then continue to do it..? Not cool.

[dh1]

Originally Posted by Watchman001

All, considering a jumbo and trying to decide best course here. I am drawn to the superior sleekness and darker dial color of the 5402 vs the 15202, but vintage can be a bit of a minefield. Am I better off going with a recent 15202? Are there trusted vintage dealers for APs anyone can recommend? Finally, do prices look to be dropping more (should I wait?), or is the current market of mid 60s (15202) - mid/high 70s (5402) at bottom?

My approach would be to pick based on the aesthetics you want (within your budget) rather than get something that isn't what you love because it's "safe".

There's a lot of deep questions here (e.g. models, vintage pitfalls, who to buy from, predict prices), but I'll just opine on the mostly aesthetic differences between the various Jumbos. In Jumbos sharing the 2121 movement (so not including the 16202 with the new movement) you have the following:

* 5402
* 14802 (the "Jubilee")
* 15002 (this is virtually a re-release of the 5402 2nd gen dial)
* 15202 (pre-2012, 0944 bracelet, larger tapisserie dial)
* 15202 (2nd gen, 1240 bracelet, return to first 5402 dial layout)

There's a lot of different tradeoffs between the different generations, but here are some thoughts. I'll limit my discussion to steel models here, because the considerations in the two-tone or solid gold (or tiny volume platinum) models are slightly different.

Dial tapisserie size
* The 5402, 14802 and 15002 have a vintage dial look with the "vintage petite tapisserie" pattern. It has the smallest pattern.
* The 15202 0944 (1st gen) dial has a different tapisserie style with larger blocks.
* The 15202 1240 dial is a return to the dial layout of the first 5402. The tapisserie is smaller than the previous 15202 but still not quite the same as the vintage ones. There are some minor variations in the tapisserie square size among three dial variants over the 2012-2022 run.

Some examples to illustrate:



Dial layout

* The 5402 had two dial configurations: AP @ 6 (first generation) and AP @ 12 (second generation). One quirk of the 5402 is that the original dials had "Swiss" instead of "Swiss Made". If the dial was replaced with a service dial (regardless of AP @ 6 vs. 12) it may say "Swiss Made".
* The 14802 and 15002 both looked very much like the 5402 AP @ 12 layout. There are MK1 and MK2 dials for both, and the biggest difference is the printing of "Audemars Piguet". MK1 is in small caps, while MK2 has mixed capital / lowercase and the text is slightly larger. The font for all of the text is also slightly different.
* The 15202 0944 (1st gen) is AP @ 12 but has changed the placement of "automatic" and has a lot of aesthetic differences (e.g. numerals in the outer minute mark ring and an outline around the date window).
* The 15202 1240 is very close to the style of the first generation 5402 AP @ 6 dial with a few tweaks.

Some examples to illustrate:





Dial colors

* In the 5402, 14802 and 15002 some of them are going to read as "black" or "charcoal" while others are more "dark blue". You specifically mentioned you like the "darker dial color of the 5402" so you'd probably be happiest with the 5402, 15002 or 14802.
* The 15202 0944 (1st gen) is notable for a variety of dial colors in steel. There is a white dial, a dark blue dial, a "cosmos" blue dial (lighter), and a black dial.
* The 15202 1240 (2nd gen) comes in a darker blue although the shade varies over the production run from 2012 to 2022.

Some examples to illustrate:



You can see more interesting stuff about the 5402 dials and colors and tapisserie in the AP Chronicles.

Caseback & Rotors
The 5402 and 15002 are solid casebacks, while 14802 and 15202 have display casebacks and skeletonized rotors.

I personally like the 1st gen 15202 rotor the best.



Bracelets
There are three generations of bracelets.
* The 5402 uses the 0344 bracelet. It has a simple single-fold style and a pull tab clasp that says "AP" or "Audemars Piguet" on it.
* The 14802 and 1st gen 15202 use the 0944 bracelet. The clasp is a little button and the bracelet is single-fold style like the 0344, but it is skeletonized rather than flat pieces of metal that fold together. Later in the 0944 run they changed the folding part to be the letters "A / P".
* The 2nd gen 15202 has the new 1240 bracelet which is also used on the 16202. It is a bifold bracelet and it has a more substantial clasp. It is thicker too.

IMO, the 0944 is my least favorite bracelet. The button clasp is more fiddly and less secure than the 5402 pull tab. The 1240 newest gen 15202 / 16202 is the best bracelet overall IMO as it is much more solid and the bifold makes it easier to put on. You can swap 1240 bracelet on the 14802 or 15202 1st gen. It's even possible to use it on the 5402 or 15002, but it is thicker, so it might look slightly "off" with the thinner solid back cases of the 5402 and 15002.

Here's a comparison of all of them:


Clasps on the single-fold bracelets (0344 and 0944):



You can see the thickness:


Date & font

The 15202 2nd generation is the only one that uses a blue color-matched date for a blue dial. The rest use a white datewheel.

The 5402 and 14802 generally use a retro looking font, while the 15202 font looks more basic.



I posted a bit in the past about the differences between the 1st and 2nd gen 15202 (0944 vs. 1240) in this post.

[edo]

Great, just great post... for me it's always AP at six, without numbers on minute track in monoblock case which you didn't cover on this post but did on the link posted...

Because 5402 is a mine field that will leave you without both legs I will always choose a 15202 w1240 in a monoblock case...

[ts3]

@dh1 Very helpful and much appreciated overview!

Agree re 15202 w1240 in a monoblock case being the safe and still great bet. Unless of course the heart wants a 14802ST salmon which I tend to prefer over the 15202BC salmon for steel vs WG, monoblock case, and the white date window (weird, I know).

[Watchman001]

Dh1, amazing post, thank you so much!

[Watchman001]

Edo and Ts3, how can you tell a 15202 with monobloc in pictures? Is it safe to go by year only, aka 2015-2017?

[NYG1121]

Great write up! For me, the 15202 1240 late generation checks all the boxes. Ideal dial layout and color, original 2121 movement, best bracelet.

[agsstructures]

Originally Posted by edo

I can't find it now but there is a thread on a Italian watch forum about vintage Jumbos that pop up for sale and that thread is 100 times scarier than any horror story I ever watch or heard in my life

There are a bunch of guys with a highest knowledge of vintage AP that contributed and I think one of them is guy that published this guide

https://www.calameo.com/read/002325141c9abc217352e

There is also a English version of this guide somewhere...

After all the scams the biggest auction houses and their vintage watch experts do and all watch media ignore that I will never go a full vintage road...

This guide seems amazing, would love to see it in English!

[agsstructures]

5402 for me! Prices have plummeted and they are in line with 15202/16202's so that would be my choice. I purchased mine from Adam at Menta Watches, also consulted quite a bit with Marco in Italy (mstanga across various forums) who's an Encyclopedia on the 5402.

Either way good luck, one of the greatest watches ever made IMHO!

[edo]

Originally Posted by Watchman001

Edo and Ts3, how can you tell a 15202 with monobloc in pictures? Is it safe to go by year only, aka 2015-2017?

Someone few years ago posted this below quoted videos to explain... AP never did any kind of press release or reference last digits change or informed any way customers of this big big construction change of original design... there is some suggestions about which serial it started but not sure at this moment...

Here's a video showing/describing the monobloc:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_tBd1y5T8M&t=47s

and here's one showing tripartite (you can see the seam):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrF6NkAmaMQ

[Watchman001]

Thanks, I see it clearly

[Octagon Guy]

Originally Posted by dh1

* The 15202 0944 (1st gen) dial has a different tapisserie style with larger blocks.
* The 15202 1240 dial is a return to the dial layout of the first 5402.

Very informative Can you advise me further what does the 0944/1240 means for the 15202?

[dh1]

Originally Posted by Octagon Guy

Very informative Can you advise me further what does the 0944/1240 means for the 15202?

The 15202 had two generations: pre-2012 and 2012-2022. They looked different (dial aesthetics) and had different bracelets.

The reference numbers both start with 15202 but look like:
15202ST.OO.0944ST.01 (earlier)
15202ST.OO.1240ST.01 (later)

The 0944ST vs 1240ST refers to the different bracelet part numbers, but it also distinguishes the two 15202 generations which have very different dial aesthetics. If the 15202 watch full reference number had 0944 it would have been the earlier generation. If the reference number has 1240 it would have been the later generation.

[Octagon Guy]

Originally Posted by dh1

The 15202 had two generations: pre-2012 and 2012-2022. They looked different (dial aesthetics) and had different bracelets.

The reference numbers both start with 15202 but look like:
15202ST.OO.0944ST.01 (earlier)
15202ST.OO.1240ST.01 (later)

The 0944ST vs 1240ST refers to the different bracelet part numbers, but it also distinguishes the two 15202 generations which have very different dial aesthetics. If the 15202 watch full reference number had 0944 it would have been the earlier generation. If the reference number has 1240 it would have been the later generation.

Thank you so much! 😊

[l_chissle]

dh1 needs to make that a thread on its own, excellent write up!

[Vince_76]

Dh1, thank you for such an informative post. Posts like this are among the reasons why I like this forum so much. Learned a lot here.

@OP - also check out Marlon De Simone. He’s out of Italy and is not only a reputable watch dealer, but also among the most prolific RO collectors.

https://www.instagram.com/marlondesi...E1MWVjZGVmZQ==

[Watchman001]

Thanks Vince!

[hgb4529]

Great knowledge in this tread! After researching the Jumbo for many years I finally bought the 15202/0944ST dark blue dial version last year. I love it and I think it's still under appreciated, which is good for buyers because it's the cheapest Jumbo available.

I love how the 0944 version has a thinner case (last of the monocoque case construction) and thinner bracelet than the 1240 version. The rehaut and bezel are also thinner, which allows for a thinner hand-stack. All of this creates the illusion of a more elegant look that rivals the original Jumbo, 5402. I also like that the 0944 version had its dials made by Patek (Stern Freres) on the original Lienhard guilloche copying machines before AP moved this in-house. The rotor and the 'AP' clasp is more attractive and the clasp more comfortable to wear IMO. From what I've read it seems like the 0944 version is the last Jumbo where hand-finishing was evident and before AP really started to expand production and focus on cost-cutting (AP made ~3x more 1240s than 0944s)

The 1240 version is an amazing watch, don't get me wrong. The 16202 is amazing too, but I think as time goes on, collectors will start to put a premium on the JLC 920/AP2121 movement. You mentioned that buying vintage is a minefield. I actually think buying 5402s is drastically easier than buying vintage Rolex. For 5402s you only have to look out for overpolished bezels and bracelets; and service dials and crowns. It's fairly straightforward. Best of luck in your journey!

[dh1]

Originally Posted by hgb4529

Great knowledge in this tread! After researching the Jumbo for many years I finally bought the 15202/0944ST dark blue dial version last year. I love it and I think it's still under appreciated, which is good for buyers because it's the cheapest Jumbo available.

I love how the 0944 version has a thinner case (last of the monocoque case construction) and thinner bracelet than the 1240 version. The rehaut and bezel are also thinner, which allows for a thinner hand-stack. All of this creates the illusion of a more elegant look that rivals the original Jumbo, 5402. I also like that the 0944 version had its dials made by Patek (Stern Freres) on the original Lienhard guilloche copying machines before AP moved this in-house. The rotor and the 'AP' clasp is more attractive and the clasp more comfortable to wear IMO. From what I've read it seems like the 0944 version is the last Jumbo where hand-finishing was evident and before AP really started to expand production and focus on cost-cutting (AP made ~3x more 1240s than 0944s)

The 1240 version is an amazing watch, don't get me wrong. The 16202 is amazing too, but I think as time goes on, collectors will start to put a premium on the JLC 920/AP2121 movement. You mentioned that buying vintage is a minefield. I actually think buying 5402s is drastically easier than buying vintage Rolex. For 5402s you only have to look out for overpolished bezels and bracelets; and service dials and crowns. It's fairly straightforward. Best of luck in your journey!

Glad to see some folks voicing appreciation for the 1st gen 15202 :-)

I also agree that the finishing in the 2nd gen 15202 started getting more "value engineered" (including the transition away from the monobloc case), while the 1st gen was closer to the 14802.

Your point about putting a premium on the 2121 movement: I don't know what collectors will value in the future (depends how much they dislike setting the date...), but one interesting less known "feature" is that you can interchange dials among all of the 2121 Jumbos. Some collectors customize their 15202s with 5402 service dials, for example. I have a 1st gen 15202 and modified it with a 14802 dial and a 2nd gen 1240 bracelet, creating a personal "remix" of my favorite features from multiple Jumbos.

[hgb4529]

"I have a 1st gen 15202 and modified it with a 14802 dial and a 2nd gen 1240 bracelet"

That's awesome! What color 14802 dial do you install? My dream is to source a salmon 14802 dial and install it on my 1st gen 15202. I too have put on a 1240 bracelet, but I didn't like the ridgedness and bulkiness so I now go back and forth between a white rubber strap and the original 0944 bracelet. I love how versatile the Royal Oak is and it looks beautiful in any configuration!

[dh1]

Originally Posted by hgb4529

"I have a 1st gen 15202 and modified it with a 14802 dial and a 2nd gen 1240 bracelet"

That's awesome! What color 14802 dial do you install? My dream is to source a salmon 14802 dial and install it on my 1st gen 15202.

It's a salmon. I posted some pics in the "what are you wearing" thread.

[hgb4529]

It's gorgeous! Congrats on acquiring that dial.

Originally Posted by dh1

It's a salmon. I posted some pics in the "what are you wearing" thread.

[Lkdub24]

Originally Posted by dh1

My approach would be to pick based on the aesthetics you want (within your budget) rather than get something that isn't what you love because it's "safe".

There's a lot of deep questions here (e.g. models, vintage pitfalls, who to buy from, predict prices), but I'll just opine on the mostly aesthetic differences between the various Jumbos. In Jumbos sharing the 2121 movement (so not including the 16202 with the new movement) you have the following:

* 5402
* 14802 (the "Jubilee")
* 15002 (this is virtually a re-release of the 5402 2nd gen dial)
* 15202 (pre-2012, 0944 bracelet, larger tapisserie dial)
* 15202 (2nd gen, 1240 bracelet, return to first 5402 dial layout)

There's a lot of different tradeoffs between the different generations, but here are some thoughts. I'll limit my discussion to steel models here, because the considerations in the two-tone or solid gold (or tiny volume platinum) models are slightly different.

Dial tapisserie size
* The 5402, 14802 and 15002 have a vintage dial look with the "vintage petite tapisserie" pattern. It has the smallest pattern.
* The 15202 0944 (1st gen) dial has a different tapisserie style with larger blocks.
* The 15202 1240 dial is a return to the dial layout of the first 5402. The tapisserie is smaller than the previous 15202 but still not quite the same as the vintage ones. There are some minor variations in the tapisserie square size among three dial variants over the 2012-2022 run.

Some examples to illustrate:



Dial layout

* The 5402 had two dial configurations: AP @ 6 (first generation) and AP @ 12 (second generation). One quirk of the 5402 is that the original dials had "Swiss" instead of "Swiss Made". If the dial was replaced with a service dial (regardless of AP @ 6 vs. 12) it may say "Swiss Made".
* The 14802 and 15002 both looked very much like the 5402 AP @ 12 layout. There are MK1 and MK2 dials for both, and the biggest difference is the printing of "Audemars Piguet". MK1 is in small caps, while MK2 has mixed capital / lowercase and the text is slightly larger. The font for all of the text is also slightly different.
* The 15202 0944 (1st gen) is AP @ 12 but has changed the placement of "automatic" and has a lot of aesthetic differences (e.g. numerals in the outer minute mark ring and an outline around the date window).
* The 15202 1240 is very close to the style of the first generation 5402 AP @ 6 dial with a few tweaks.

Some examples to illustrate:





Dial colors

* In the 5402, 14802 and 15002 some of them are going to read as "black" or "charcoal" while others are more "dark blue". You specifically mentioned you like the "darker dial color of the 5402" so you'd probably be happiest with the 5402, 15002 or 14802.
* The 15202 0944 (1st gen) is notable for a variety of dial colors in steel. There is a white dial, a dark blue dial, a "cosmos" blue dial (lighter), and a black dial.
* The 15202 1240 (2nd gen) comes in a darker blue although the shade varies over the production run from 2012 to 2022.

Some examples to illustrate:



You can see more interesting stuff about the 5402 dials and colors and tapisserie in the AP Chronicles.

Caseback & Rotors
The 5402 and 15002 are solid casebacks, while 14802 and 15202 have display casebacks and skeletonized rotors.

I personally like the 1st gen 15202 rotor the best.



Bracelets
There are three generations of bracelets.
* The 5402 uses the 0344 bracelet. It has a simple single-fold style and a pull tab clasp that says "AP" or "Audemars Piguet" on it.
* The 14802 and 1st gen 15202 use the 0944 bracelet. The clasp is a little button and the bracelet is single-fold style like the 0344, but it is skeletonized rather than flat pieces of metal that fold together. Later in the 0944 run they changed the folding part to be the letters "A / P".
* The 2nd gen 15202 has the new 1240 bracelet which is also used on the 16202. It is a bifold bracelet and it has a more substantial clasp. It is thicker too.

IMO, the 0944 is my least favorite bracelet. The button clasp is more fiddly and less secure than the 5402 pull tab. The 1240 newest gen 15202 / 16202 is the best bracelet overall IMO as it is much more solid and the bifold makes it easier to put on. You can swap 1240 bracelet on the 14802 or 15202 1st gen. It's even possible to use it on the 5402 or 15002, but it is thicker, so it might look slightly "off" with the thinner solid back cases of the 5402 and 15002.

Here's a comparison of all of them:


Clasps on the single-fold bracelets (0344 and 0944):



You can see the thickness:


Date & font

The 15202 2nd generation is the only one that uses a blue color-matched date for a blue dial. The rest use a white datewheel.

The 5402 and 14802 generally use a retro looking font, while the 15202 font looks more basic.



I posted a bit in the past about the differences between the 1st and 2nd gen 15202 (0944 vs. 1240) in this post.

This is such an amazing write up. Learned a lot.

[Benzsiam]

Wow, this is one of the best thread.

Thanks dh1 for the great information!

[dh1]

Thanks for the nice feedback! :-)