[Personal rambling] "The model after" effect

[sbyted]

Been in the watch game a while, observed this pattern.

The "upgrade"/version 2 model after a really popular watershed model generally tends to ring hollow a bit.

Examples:

- Patek 5070, came out in black and gold, harkoning back to a pocket chrono from Patek from way back and instantly became a favourate. Subsequently, 5070 were made in other variants and 5070 eventually got succeeded by 5170. But the 5070 in black and gold is always the fan favourate.

- 116500 panda. Instantly was the most difficult to get watch from AD. Fans were enthused about the ceramic bezel, the subdials and the black and white look. 126500 came after and is nice, but did not come out with the same "punch" as 116500. I suspect 126500 will become the "2nd child" and 116500 will eventually become more valuable.

- Rolex Hulk: Ceramic green bezel and all green. Succeeded by starbucks. Already worth more than starbucks that came after on grey market.


It seems the first watch was always the one that "captured lightning in a bottle"; and the ones after are just a shadow of the original magic.

[WatchGuy1966]

Originally Posted by sbyted

Been in the watch game a while, observed this pattern.

The "upgrade"/version 2 model after a really popular watershed model generally tends to ring hollow a bit.

Examples:

- Patek 5070, came out in black and gold, harkoning back to a pocket chrono from Patek from way back and instantly became a favourate. Subsequently, 5070 were made in other variants and 5070 eventually got succeeded by 5170. But the 5070 in black and gold is always the fan favourate.

- 116500 panda. Instantly was the most difficult to get watch from AD. Fans were enthused about the ceramic bezel, the subdials and the black and white look. 126500 came after and is nice, but did not come out with the same "punch" as 116500. I suspect 126500 will become the "2nd child" and 116500 will eventually become more valuable.

- Rolex Hulk: Ceramic green bezel and all green. Succeeded by starbucks. Already worth more than starbucks that came after on grey market.


It seems the first watch was always the one that "captured lightning in a bottle"; and the ones after are just a shadow of the original magic.

I understand your message.

In many cases, yeah.

On the Green Ceramic Subs, yes. Hulk smashes Starbucks. Yet I love the Kermit - I think it's the best looking. But ceramic was a reset on the Green Bezel Subs.

But I think the Daytona is more readable, thus an upgrade and the lume plots look better.

For the Explorer II 216750/226750, IMO your pattern holds up for the Black Dial. That Floating Orange GMT is nice.

[GGGMT]

Not unlike movie sequels oftentimes


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[piratfisk]

And children... Coming from the lofty position of firstborn

[Kingcobb]

Only time will say. On the 116500 vs 126500.....126 all the way personally.

[sbyted]

Originally Posted by piratfisk

And children... Coming from the lofty position of firstborn

This is so sad yet true. We see this a lot in sports where on the bio page of some greatest of all time: it would say, blah has a younger brother who is also a [insert sport]

[ROLEX*]

Nah, too objective here, there are predecessors too (16520, 16610LV)

[Kevin of Larchmont]

A buddy of mine used to say that a band’s first album was always the best because it’s the one they’d been waiting their whole lives to make.

An original idea can only be original once, subsequent ideas are often merely derivative.

[CarlOver]

We all have preferences. The 126 in black is a great looking watch maybe better than white 116.

[sbyted]

Originally Posted by CarlOver

We all have preferences. The 126 in black is a great looking watch maybe better than white 116.

Absolutely. Absolutely.

But I'm worried that 126500 panda will forever be known as the "upgraded" follow-up ceramic panda.

[East of Eden]

I would say the same about ceramic subs

[Spartacus]

Not always true. I think the 126660 wears better than the 116660.

I do prefer the 116500 over 126500. New sub 41 is a major improvement to me…

[brandrea]

I dunno … I’ve been around this forum for a while and in general it’s seems to me that there is predominantly a “the latest is the greatest” vibe here

[AK797]

Hulk was not liked by most when I bought it just as the hype was taking off in the UK ... and I don't think I started it all by myself . Starbucks got off to a much better reception. As for the CE Daytona well that had been awaited for many years so it was always going to blow up more than the second coming, but even there a Le Mans type in SS for the masses would have blown up just the same, so it is model dependent.

[garyk]

Since 116500 is not an actual panda watch but instead has a classic Daytona look with the addition of the ceramic bezel will forever remain the one to have. If it had come out with solid dark subdials like an actual panda dial, I would not have been interested.

The 126 is beautiful but I’m very happy with mine.




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[Jackie Daytona]

I’m not sure it’s really true in the way portrayed.

Although prices sort of dictate what the reality of the market is, I believe it’s much like any collectibles. It attracts a sort of group of select devotees to that model just like movie fans, or Ferrari or Porsche collectors, etc..

People see the one they like personally and sort of rally together around why this model was the greatest much like any collectible, cars, art, coins etc. there’s all occurrences of this in these hobbies and in many other areas.

Doesn’t necessarily mean they are greater, just have a select group of devotees of a discontinued item keeping the prices where they are.

I don’t like seeing these items as collectibles, but they seem to be driven that way.

I guess I’m in the outsider group that like the latter model on both Rolexes referenced more.

[Kingcobb]

Originally Posted by sbyted

Absolutely. Absolutely.

But I'm worried that 126500 panda will forever be known as the "upgraded" follow-up ceramic panda.

What are you worried about? Who cares what they thunk. If you like It buy it. Don't chase the mobs approval.

[Boopie]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I dunno … I’ve been around this forum for a while and in general it’s seems to me that there is predominantly a “the latest is the greatest” vibe here

Rolex has definitely made some improvements over time, such as clasps and more solid bracelets. The older aluminum bezels on Subs and GMTs have their charms (and we have one of each watch with them), but the ceramic is a more durable material that maintains the color well.

I do like the faded bezel on my husband’s 16710, and I think that some of the ceramic blues haven’t always been consistent, in my opinion, but not everyone likes the faded, vintage look on a luxury watch. I own vintage cars and modern cars. I want my daily driver to look essentially new and perfect. Patina is awesome on a classic car.

I’d put case size changes and switching from an all brushed oyster bracelet and/or lugs to one with PCL or polished lugs as a modern change that is open to debate as to whether it’s an “improvement.”

[schwartz914]

I have the new ref panda and the old ref black ceramic. The new ref is so much better. Now when I see the old one the bezel looks too big. New ref all day

[ArtNouveau]

I stumbled into a white dial 16520 in early 2000 when a friend of mine found two of them at an AD in the Grand Caymans and sold one to me. I had it only a year or less when the 116520 came out and I “traded up” to a white dial version of that. In 2004 I sold that and got a black dial which I daily’d until 2008.
Skip forward to 2019 and I got a black dial 116500 after a 9 month wait at my AD. This time around I just don’t find the changes of the 126500 attractive enough to change. Hardcore collectors will say I should have kept them all but over those years I couldn’t really afford that and I really only wanted the latest thing. I’ve matured I guess in my latest run of Rolex, the only one sold in the last seven years was my 11 series BLNR. Sold it in 2018 just a few weeks after receiving my BLRO because I knew I wouldn’t wear it much if any.
At some point the GMTs will get a refresh but it will have to really knock my socks off to want to “upgrade” my BLRO.

[East of Eden]

Originally Posted by Boopie

I’d put case size changes and switching from an all brushed oyster bracelet and/or lugs to one with PCL or polished lugs as a modern change that is open to debate as to whether it’s an “improvement.”

Totally agree. PCLs really don’t work on a daily wearer, and I can see how many like the larger cases, but they need to offer Subs in two different sizes as they do with the Explorer. Belts aren’t one size fits all and neither are watches

[East of Eden]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I dunno … I’ve been around this forum for a while and in general it’s seems to me that there is predominantly a “the latest is the greatest” vibe here

Yup, it’s called marketing. The idea that a babied piece of expensive jewelry ‘needs’ a ceramic bezel is ridiculous, my 24 year old 14060 aluminum bezel looks perfect and can be inexpensively replaced if needed. Just like some have to have the latest model car, same goes for watches I guess

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Boopie

Rolex has definitely made some improvements over time, such as clasps and more solid bracelets. The older aluminum bezels on Subs and GMTs have their charms (and we have one of each watch with them), but the ceramic is a more durable material that maintains the color well.

I do like the faded bezel on my husband’s 16710, and I think that some of the ceramic blues haven’t always been consistent, in my opinion, but not everyone likes the faded, vintage look on a luxury watch. I own vintage cars and modern cars. I want my daily driver to look essentially new and perfect. Patina is awesome on a classic car.

I’d put case size changes and switching from an all brushed oyster bracelet and/or lugs to one with PCL or polished lugs as a modern change that is open to debate as to whether it’s an “improvement.”

The 16710 is a perfect example of it it ain’t broke, don’t fix it

Yes, bracelets and clasps have “improved” I suppose, but in reality the older models have a certain charm that just can’t be replicated IMHO

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by East of Eden

Yup, it’s called marketing. The idea that a babied piece of expensive jewelry ‘needs’ a ceramic bezel is ridiculous, my 24 year old 14060 aluminum bezel looks perfect and can be inexpensively replaced if needed. Just like some have to have the latest model car, same goes for watches I guess

Exactly

[East of Eden]

Originally Posted by brandrea

The 16710 is a perfect example of it it ain’t broke, don’t fix it

Yes, bracelets and clasps have “improved” I suppose, but in reality the older models have a certain charm that just can’t be replicated IMHO

And if you want to bring a five digit up to speed you can easily put in an AR coated crystal and Easy Link

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by East of Eden

And if you want to bring a five digit up to speed you can easily put in an AR coated crystal and Easy Link

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[ol' Rex]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

A buddy of mine used to say that a band’s first album was always the best because it’s the one they’d been waiting their whole lives to make.

An original idea can only be original once, subsequent ideas are often merely derivative.

Aside from a few "one-hit wonders" I can't think of anyone about whom that could be said, but I would be curious to hear which bands or musicians you think never topped their debut albums. I actually have the just the opposite impression, namely that the greats typically needed a few releases before they finally "hit their stride".



As far as Rolex is concerned, I think it's silly to fixate on one reference as the pinnacle of development, and as much as I love the 1016, the 5513, the 6263, I still find the modern iterations of these watches to be excellent. I certainly don't think Rolex is going "backwards" in terms of design, quality, durability etc. The great strength of this company seems to me to be its ability to tastefully modernize its offerings while staying true to the spirit of the original designs.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by ol' Rex

Aside from a few "one-hit wonders" I can't think of anyone about whom that could be said, but I would be curious to hear which bands or musicians you think never topped their debut albums. I actually have the just the opposite impression, namely that the greats typically needed a few releases before they finally "hit their stride".



As far as Rolex is concerned, I think it's silly to fixate on one reference as the pinnacle of development, and as much as I love the 1016, the 5513, the 6263, I still find the modern iterations of these watches to be excellent. I certainly don't think Rolex is going "backwards" in terms of design, quality, durability etc. The great strength of this company seems to me to be its ability to tastefully modernize its offerings while staying true to the spirit of the original designs.

Well to be clear I didn’t say that, my buddy Roger did, but in the spirit of I can offer up two disparate examples: Van Halen’s self-titled first album blew the doors off of the big-hair metal genre and they continued downhill from there as Eddie discovered the white keys on the keyboard and Cold Play’s first album was so powerfully moody and distinct and each subsequent album seems an attempt to say “hey, remember how good our first album was?”

This is a strained analogy and these are subjective examples but at a casual glance it’s clear that my buddy Roger had a pretty good point.

[ol' Rex]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

Well to be clear I didn’t say that, my buddy Roger did, but in the spirit of I can offer up two disparate examples: Van Halen’s self-titled first album blew the doors off of the big-hair metal genre and they continued downhill from there as Eddie discovered the white keys on the keyboard and Cold Play’s first album was so powerfully moody and distinct and each subsequent album seems an attempt to say “hey, remember how good our first album was?”

This is a strained analogy and these are subjective examples but at a casual glance it’s clear that my buddy Roger had a pretty good point.

Good examples! With Cold Play I would say you're 100% correct, but with Van Halen I see it a little bit differently: Yes, the first album is amazing, and they never topped it, but in my opinion the first three are all excellent. After that though it was indeed a long descent...

Now since this thread is about watches, and the OP mentioned the white 116500, I'm going to try to stay on topic: I see the 116500 as The Dark Side of the Moon and the 126500 as Wish You Were Here: Some claim one is better; some prefer the other. Both are really, really good.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by ol' Rex

Good examples! With Cold Play I would say you're 100% correct, but with Van Halen I see it a little bit differently: Yes, the first album is amazing, and they never topped it, but in my opinion the first three are all excellent. After that though it was indeed a long descent...

Now since this thread is about watches, and the OP mentioned the white 116500, I'm going to try to stay on topic: I see the 116500 as The Dark Side of the Moon and the 126500 as Wish You Were Here: Some claim one is better; some prefer the other. Both are really, really good.

A long descent indeed and still a legend until the end, and I agree on the first three albums in descending order.

As for Daytonas I am indifferent with no ability to tell them apart by generation but I will echo my earlier point that you can only experience once what you haven’t experienced before. After that the shock and awe have dissipated and familiarity can’t be escaped. The only Daytona that stands out to me is the platinum Blue Ice dial with the brown bezel because to my eye those colors make the Daytona idea brand new again. But now I’m getting into the weeds. Watches, like great bands, can reinvent themselves for the better to remain interesting. Some never do, evolution in action I guess.