Robb Report/Everywatch says 36mm Day-Dates are up 57%?

[miamiclay]

This article was mentioned in passing in another thread, but I’m wondering about both the underlying data and what current buyers are seeing.

https://robbreport.com/style/watch-c...ng-1235871671/

The article cites Everywatch data claiming that 36mm DD values rose 57% just in August 2024. Considering there are almost 70 years of 36mm DDs, and a near-infinite range of conditions, dials, bracelets, accessories, etc., it seems awfully tough to come up with any meaningful figure. My first instinct is to suspect an inappropriately small sample size, but they claim otherwise.

Note that Chronopulse data (from C24) says 36mm DDs are down 12.73% over the last three months (although that may be measuring only 18238s, it’s not clear).

What’s the impression of people who have been shopping in the secondary market for a DD36 over the last few months? Has anyone dug into the Everywatch data to see how they reached their number? If that 57% number is anywhere close to accurate, what’s driving it? Is it really reflecting DD values, or just the values of a few rarer dials? (I’d also expect the percentage numbers are not uniform among 4-, 5-, and 6-digit DDs.)

[0nly5iv3Digits]

57% makes absolutely no sense. None. I'm sure they've gone up a bit. Many folks seem to be "convincing" themselves and *caugh* their "wives" *caugh caugh* that 36mm DD's make sense at the moment because gold is up and the economy is in the toilet. They do represent tremendous value imo in the current market, however.

[springer]

Maybe the DAY-DATE prices are up because some of us seasoned collectors from the past 25 years want to wear some real "bling" for a change instead of the same old sports and DATEJUST models.

Now, with more demand and a limited number of nice, older DAY-DATE models out there for sale, prices can only go up. Although a 57% increase as of late seems high, I'm sure they have gone up in price this year.

[Incroyable12]

I wonder if the average has been skewed by the extreme price rise of some of the rare DD dial configurations and the rare WG/PT models.

The run of the mill 18038 still seems to hover around the same price.

[1665fan]

Bunch of bs lol

[ronricks]

Not buying it. You can find great deals on 18038/18238 if you look hard enough and avoid buying retail from overpriced brick and mortar sellers.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by springer

Maybe the DAY-DATE prices are up because some of us seasoned collectors from the past 25 years want to wear some real "bling" for a change instead of the same old sports and DATEJUST models.

Now, with more demand and a limited number of nice, older DAY-DATE models out there for sale, prices can only go up. Although a 57% increase as of late seems high, I'm sure they have gone up in price this year.

Lovely

[1William]

OK. Don't understand most watch data related to prices. Very undependable most of the time based on deeper analysis.

[carwashchris]

Originally Posted by ronricks

not buying it. You can find great deals on 18038/18238 if you look hard enough and avoid buying retail from overpriced brick and mortar sellers.

this + 1

[foxytimes]

Imho that's complete nonsense. Given the variations of almost every Rolex model generalized statements about market prices are - to put it mildly - questionable.

Even the sought after Daytona has a wide spread. TT models are not that easy to sell like SS, the same applies to certain dial configurations in PM. Still strong seem to be vintage specimens but there it is all about condition and authenticity.

In the DD range it's even more difficult to distinguish. As a rule of thumb in the 5-digit universe I see stone dials and stella dials still quite expensive, serti dials have come down considerably except pavé or other crown collection dials especially if they are mounted in a rarer reference like 18148, 18168 or 18058. There are also relatively rarer references that are extremely difficult to appraise, a 18018 e.g. - You will pay a hefty premium buying it but selling at a similar price might be difficult because it attracts a small number of collectors only. This applies to certain dial categories too, e.g. wood dials. For the more common references in YG or WG I can't see significant price bumps as stated above. Tridors too have more sentimental value than fetching top dollar. And there are less common references like a 18108 that won't break the bank unless there is a special dial mounted.

As for 4-digit references I don't know enough about this market. Thus much: A nice guilloché dial will set you back a considerable amount. 6-digit models that are still in production tend to be under list price except a few special configurations like meteorite dials, stone dials or a heavy gem set 228398.

Upcoming October auctions in Europe will give us further information about pricing.

just my

[TuRo]

I think that is nonsense...a typo even !

My stats based on C24/eBay/Auction hammer show a 16% drop (vintagey 6611(B) to end of century pieces) from peak mkt Oct 2022 to Oct 24, but as with many Rolex and Tudor pieces prices seem to have started increasing 1-2% per month since Aug. So the 'great readjustment' might just be over folks !

Historically day dates (and precious djs) have been about the only Rolex that has been a great piece, but not a good investment with std dials just about keeping pace using inflation adjustment (btw on gem versions, I posted some data on here showing about a 30-40% loss infl adjusted/net present value 1984-2024). Makes second hand DD a mighty value buy.

Going forward I think they might enjoy nice lowish single digit growth, but I really doubt much more than that (except Uber rare 6510/6511 of course).

The price of gold (p/metals) has gone up last 6 months which also has a small positive impact on values.

Btw - For anyone interested the biggest vintage fallers were the frothily priced 16520 Daytona (that had nearly tripled in price from 2015-22) at a 25-30% drop, and the lowest fallers (or in fact gainers) was the std dial 6265/63 that had actually gained 5-10% in the two years (as 2018-2022 it had been stymied/stayed almost the same value, while other Rolex esp professional rose 60-100%). Other factor I often see is 'demand differentiation' gap. Eg, as the 16520 values had got closer to the 6265/63 coat tails, the hitherto stymied 6265/63 suddenly spurt off. You see this when 1680 white values close on reds and 1665 gw gets to close to drsd, 16750 matte get close to 1675 etc etc ... i.e. the more hallowed or 'halo' model often exponentially spurts off !

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by 0nly5iv3Digits

57% makes absolutely no sense. None. I'm sure they've gone up a bit. Many folks seem to be "convincing" themselves and *caugh* their "wives" *caugh caugh* that 36mm DD's make sense at the moment because gold is up and the economy is in the toilet. They do represent tremendous value imo in the current market, however.

The most shocking thing about this thread is that "the economy is in the toilet". I had no idea! In what country? The bit about Day-Dates rising in value isn't particularly surprising.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by foxytimes

Imho that's complete nonsense. Given the variations of almost every Rolex model generalized statements about market prices are - to put it mildly - questionable.

Even the sought after Daytona has a wide spread. TT models are not that easy to sell like SS, the same applies to certain dial configurations in PM. Still strong seem to be vintage specimens but there it is all about condition and authenticity.

In the DD range it's even more difficult to distinguish. As a rule of thumb in the 5-digit universe I see stone dials and stella dials still quite expensive, serti dials have come down considerably except pavé or other crown collection dials especially if they are mounted in a rarer reference like 18148, 18168 or 18058. There are also relatively rarer references that are extremely difficult to appraise, a 18018 e.g. - You will pay a hefty premium buying it but selling at a similar price might be difficult because it attracts a small number of collectors only. This applies to certain dial categories too, e.g. wood dials. For the more common references in YG or WG I can't see significant price bumps as stated above. Tridors too have more sentimental value than fetching top dollar. And there are less common references like a 18108 that won't break the bank unless there is a special dial mounted.

As for 4-digit references I don't know enough about this market. Thus much: A nice guilloché dial will set you back a considerable amount. 6-digit models that are still in production tend to be under list price except a few special configurations like meteorite dials, stone dials or a heavy gem set 228398.

Upcoming October auctions in Europe will give us further information about pricing.

just my

From speaking to one of the vintage dealers recently he can’t move any four digit Day Date or Datejust unless it has a special/rare dial. People just aren’t buying them and they are a hard sell right now.

[Dan S]

I suspect that number is either a mistake or just badly skewed by poor statistics and one or two big sales. Common sense suggests that prices are currently flat or rebounding slightly, IMO.

[offrdmania]

Maybe it was supposed to read 5-7%

[swish77]

Originally Posted by cascavel

The most shocking thing about this thread is that "the economy is in the toilet". I had no idea! In what country? The bit about Day-Dates rising in value isn't particularly surprising.

x100. Stock market is soaring, unemployment at historic lows, and inflation dropping. Premium gas in CT is around $3.55 a gallon now.

Over the last couple of years, there’s been a trend away from larger watches and toward smaller pieces, even among younger buyers. You see it all over social media. That means 36mm is more in demand, and classic/vintage Rolexes at that size will increase in value as a result.

[offrdmania]

Maybe I was ahead of the game but I really enjoyed the 39mm line that Rolex had a few years back. Seemed to be the perfect size.

[crowncollection]

I see increases in prices overall, especially on rare dials. The large watch trend is passing. Greater demand. Run of the mill day dates have not risen over 50% imho


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[TomWambsgans]

Originally Posted by crowncollection

I see increases in prices overall, especially on rare dials. The large watch trend is passing. Greater demand. Run of the mill day dates have not risen over 50% imho


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Same. Prices on models in good condition seem to have been going up for the last few months. Not sure about 57% or whatever, though.


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[0nly5iv3Digits]

Originally Posted by cascavel

The most shocking thing about this thread is that "the economy is in the toilet". I had no idea! In what country? The bit about Day-Dates rising in value isn't particularly surprising.

Originally Posted by swish77

x100. Stock market is soaring, unemployment at historic lows, and inflation dropping. Premium gas in CT is around $3.55 a gallon now.

You chaps are funny. It’s an election year in the big old US of A

[Boopie]

Maybe because the new fluted bezel platinum 36mm DD cost so much more than the used market?

I’ve had my eye on a 6-digit platinum DD (smooth bezel) with an ice blue dial for years…it seemed like the very best prices I could find were $32-34k. Now I’ve seen a number of them for sale well under $30k, including down to $27k.

I haven’t looked at the market for any of the gold versions, whether YG, WG or RG.

[Incroyable12]

Loose rare DD dials often cost more than the actual watch.