What happens before a Rolex watch is discontinued?

[Djoker48]

For those OGs here that came in before the Covid craziness or those that have just witnessed the arena for a long time: What happens before a watch gets discontinued (Hulk, Motif Dial Datejusts, Palm Dial, SD 4K and others)? Does supply dry up months before? Do ADs get hints to not accept requests for these watches? Are there any leading indicators?

The reason for the question: A bunch of let’s say “unwise” folks are buying the Pepsi and Sprite in the hopes that it gets discontinued (fair game if you actually like it). But production appears to go on as usual. Doesn’t this indicate a watch won’t be discontinued this Watches and Wonders?

Or am I missing something and even discontinued watches continue to be sold till the last day before Watches and Wonders (or Basel World for the models prior)?

[CarlOver]

No one knows. The YG green dial Daytona was hoarded for a bit and then wasn't discontinued and many dealer were left withs lots of expensive over priced inventory.

[ArtNouveau]

I think back to the recent coral red and yellow OPs in all sizes abruptly being discontinued a mere 18 months after being introduced. There was no advance rumors or warnings that I recall they just quit making them. I got my 41mm red the second week of February ‘22, three weeks later they were gone. At the AD level my SA said they had zero warnings from their rep. He said I got the last one of 12 they had received over those 18 months and no more.
(The 41mm turquoise was also discontinued then too allegedly because Rolex wasn’t happy with the high hype market associated with it.)

[996marty]

I always think it’s always best to buy what you like and if it gets discontinued and goes up in value then it’s a win win

[Djoker48]

Originally Posted by 996marty

I always think it’s always best to buy what you like and if it gets discontinued and goes up in value then it’s a win win

Agreed 100%

[Easy E]

Once the rumor starts circulating that a watch is going away they become hard(er) to find. I’d say the historical accuracy of those rumors is 10% or less. That said, I going to lay it out there the Pepsi is not getting discontinued. I can own my guess if proven wrong.

Either way terrible risk, terrible watch buying strategy.

[enjoythemusic]

At 12am during the next full moon, AD's light a special green Rolex candle and look towards Switzerland while praying. This age-old tradition has never been reported, or seen, yet there was a web post about it.



No one knows in advance, but web guys sure like to speculate and post YouTube click bait just before the next big show. Might i suggest ignoring all the noise, wear what you love, visit the beach, invest time with those you love, and enjoy your time.

And get your wife hooked on horology too.

PS: Watch the actual release live, then send a text at 4am to your AD your Wish List. See, if you want to be first on the list, you gotta annoy them first (at 4am). ;)

[yowlie]

nothing

[Dr.Stu]

Totally unscientific anecdata, but to me, it always seems that there is a noticeable increase in incomings for the discontinued watch just before it's discontinuation is made official.

[jcdevoe26]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

At 12am during the next full moon, AD's light a special green Rolex candle and look towards Switzerland while praying. This age-old tradition has never been reported, or seen, yet there was a web post about it.



No one knows in advance, but web guys sure like to speculate and post YouTube click bait just before the next big show. Might i suggest ignoring all the noise, wear what you love, visit the beach, invest time with those you love, and enjoy your time.

And get your wife hooked on horology too.

PS: Watch the actual release live, then send a text at 4am to your AD your Wish List. See, if you want to be first on the list, you gotta annoy them first (at 4am). ;)

[scooba]

Last year in the UK ADs were told the YM 11 and Motif dials were discontinued. I shared it on here. you are welcome to search it. I received it from a local independent and also the biggest supplier in the UK a chain WOS. I was called out and basically told I was talking BS. Anyways It was correct , Same guys I have dealt with for 32yrs same MD . Same guy who got le my 126529LM at list .

Even if you do hear it some people know better . I have learnt to not bother to share .

[scooba]

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=935052

[askdanny]

Word of caution

It’s almost a given that a discontinued Rolex makes it instantly a more valuable reference. But that is not true.

The black-black-black GMT is still the cheapest six-digit GMT. (The other discontinued GMT — the two-tone 116713LN — is the second cheapest despite the high price of gold.)

The Submariner is less blocky than the previous edition; the Explorer II is more refined; the latest Air-King, which entered the professional line in 2022, was universally better received than its 2016 predecessor, the 116900.

The ceramic-bezel Daytona is more valuable than the discontinued steel-bezeled one. And while many prefer the subdials on the 116500, it is now selling for less than the 126500 that was introduced last year.

The discontinued Yacht-Master II can be found for $4000 (!!) less than what it sold at retail.

I know your question was not about price, but, rather, the signs of an impending discontinuation. I say buy what you like now. Life is too short.

And "experts" like me are often wrong. :-)

—Danny

[travisb]

It's all speculation and rumors. No one really knows until it happens.

[padi56]

What happens before a Rolex watch is discontinued.

First its hyped on the net that they will go up in value,then those that think Rolex watches are just £££££$$$ object things rush out to buy them.

[1William]

Typically we will be discussing it for an extended period of time before it happens. The Hulk was discussed for a long time before it happened. AD's get notification that certain watches will no longer ship and so goes the game.

[majidessa]

Originally Posted by askdanny

Word of caution

It’s almost a given that a discontinued Rolex makes it instantly a more valuable reference. But that is not true.

The black-black-black GMT is still the cheapest six-digit GMT. (The other discontinued GMT — the two-tone 116713LN — is the second cheapest despite the high price of gold.)

The Submariner is less blocky than the previous edition; the Explorer II is more refined; the latest Air-King, which entered the professional line in 2022, was universally better received than its 2016 predecessor, the 116900.

The ceramic-bezel Daytona is more valuable than the discontinued steel-bezeled one. And while many prefer the subdials on the 116500, it is now selling for less than the 126500 that was introduced last year.

The discontinued Yacht-Master II can be found for $4000 (!!) less than what it sold at retail.

I know your question was not about price, but, rather, the signs of an impending discontinuation. I say buy what you like now. Life is too short.

And "experts" like me are often wrong. :-)

—Danny

These are very good points unfortunately grey dealers always try to spread false info to maximize their profits. Long story short, not every discontinued model becomes a hot model that sells for a big premium. I think the discontinuation of a certain hot configuration that is not replaced by similar and newer version might go up in price such as Hulk or PEPSI.
Certain discontinued models might become very desirable for reasons not related to its discontinuation (historical significance, celebrities, rarity,...etc).

[enjoythemusic]

On the other side of this, look for the smoke signal when Rolex introduces a new model.


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[brandrea]

They’ll all be discontinued or replaced with a new model eventually

[JRell]

Usually a long ceremony followed by 2 weeks of grieving up until the discontinuation date.

[Funkle]

Originally Posted by askdanny

The discontinued Yacht-Master II can be found for $4000 (!!) less than what it sold at retail.

—Danny

I got excited when I read this! So .. closest to that number I have found have been $7K ladies beaters

[Tools]

Folks have been speculating for decades and their average of success at guessing is not really high.

The hype cause temporary spikes, then folks have to wait years to even break even from the hyped prices. There are dozens of "discontinued" models that just represent an era, not a high dollar jewel.

[travisb]

Originally Posted by brandrea

They’ll all be discontinued or replaced with a new model eventually

Exactly.
So if you speculate and make predictions long enough, it's bound to happen.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by travisb

Exactly.
So if you speculate and make predictions long enough, it's bound to happen.

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[Funkle]

Originally Posted by Funkle

I got excited when I read this! So .. closest to that number I have found have been $7K ladies beaters

Maybe I misread, you meant $4,000 less than what it sold at retail.

[Zach69SS]

Rolex does not give any advanced notice on anything it does, it just does it. The short answer is, NO. Something new or a discontinued piece. The rumors start and like every story it get taller as it goes. Some people look at Rolex patent filings and to start rumors.

With Rolex you never know what is going to happen. I don’t know how they do it and nothing ever gets out of corporate

Buy what you like and enjoy it, if the value increases great if not that’s good to.
To buy this or that because of a rumor or the chance the market value will go up,
makes no sense to me. I buy because, I like the piece and the way it makes feel.

Cheers,

[MrMercedes]

nothing....!

[ronricks]

My AD was still getting in the 116500 Daytona’s well after it was discontinued along with the 126500 Daytona’s. Rolex simply will exhaust all supply via AD channels when its discontinued.

[thesharkfactor]

Originally Posted by askdanny

Word of caution

It’s almost a given that a discontinued Rolex makes it instantly a more valuable reference. But that is not true.

The black-black-black GMT is still the cheapest six-digit GMT...

I believe the 116710LN actually did spike in value upon it's discontuation. however it is still as you say, the best value six-digit GMT today

[Roddypeepa]

There’s too many variables here. I guess whether it dries up before being pulled depends on how popular it was in the first place?

Value sometimes spikes, sometimes doesn’t. For example the 116710ln went nuts in 2019 from being not all that on demand and asking selling for around £6-7k to being bandied around at £9-11 k within weeks. I should know I had the choice of it or 114060 the week before. I chose the sub! GMT black nothing for me but I love the sub so it’s so personal and it is what it is.

So it depends… most of the good folks on here would advise you to buy what you like and take it from there.

Milgauss never really hit its ceiling as prices were already done by down when was discontinued. So thing quirky and different could be a future classic. VTNR, BLRO, mint green skydweller, datejusts, possibly? Seadweller 4k ceramic is good value and probably a future classic. But already gone. If we had a crystal ball it’d be great.


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