Interesting convo with my AD today…

[rolexjackson]

They told me that so far this year they have taken delivery of 4 White Stainless steel Daytona watches. This to me speaks volumes. I googled how many Rolex AD there are in the USA and I came up with 317 so that would mean only 1268 of these were delivered so far this year. I realize that there will be some dealers that get more than others but when they make over 1mm pieces a year you would think they would make more.


Life is short buy the watch-

[omar-rye]

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

[rolexjackson]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

Fair point Omar I wish I Was one of the 4 … i admire your ability to do math!


Life is short buy the watch-

[Mr. Superlative]

Very good explanation and number crunching breakdown.

I echo Jackson - life’s short: buy the watch.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

[ArtNouveau]

As you say, all dealers, in the US at least, are not created equal. In 2019, the year I got my 116500, my high volume AD told me they got 30, 15 of each dial.
If your AD is small they may be telling you the truth. Main point being you can’t determine how many of each piece an AD got based on a simple math equation. I think the continued thinning of ADs is also affecting allocations.

[Victor Cohen]

Here's an interesting study based on Chrono 24 data. Of course it's worth what it's worth because the figures are not official and there may be some bias.

But overall, on the basis of the assumptions made, the figures seem fairly consistent.

Daytona seems to be one of the most widely produced models because of its depth and variety.

The case study is there : https://quillandpad.com/2024/02/13/r...-rolex-make-2/

[Rolexatlast]

There are many versions of Daytonas, but hard to believe they make more Daytonas than Subs.

Seeing Subs in the wild is fairly common, but Daytonas are a rare sight for me

[1William]

Maybe. I have a hard time believing what AD's say based on my personal experience.

[Victor Cohen]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

There are many versions of Daytonas, but hard to believe they make more Daytonas than Subs.

Seeing Subs in the wild is fairly common, but Daytonas are a rare sight for me

This is also what I tend to think.


Nevertheless, I just took a look at chrono24 and here are the totals for the 12XX series for Daytona, Submariner and GMT

Daytona : 2000

Submariner : 3055

GMT : 4218


All models taken together, there are more SS than PM obviously, except for the Daytona.


My personal thoughts lead me to think two things

Indeed Rolex produces more Daytona PM with risks of unsold, because the entry ticket is much higher but also because the demand is much more concentrated on the SS than the PM. However, the popularity of the Daytona could push a shift into a buyer's mind towards PM, whereas on the other models perhaps less.


The second point is that Daytona models, and more particularly SSs, are so difficult to obtain from ADs that there are fewer of them on the after/grey market. Buyers are also more likely to keep them as they are difficult to obtain.

All of this is pure speculation, but it wouldn't seem crazy to me if the quantity of Daytonas produced wasn't close to, or even equivalent to Sub.

[brandrea]

I always enjoy AD intel

[m j b]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I always enjoy AD intel

By intel you mean "intel" right? As in, rolling-your-eyes sarcastic?

I dunno. Do Canadians do sarcastic?

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by m j b

By intel you mean "intel" right? As in, rolling-your-eyes sarcastic?

I dunno. Do Canadians do sarcastic?

Yes and yes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tricolore66]

There are hundred if not thousands of BNIB 116500’s for sale on any given day. Believe what you like but I’d be shocked if your AD doesn’t have a safe filled with new Daytonas.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

Short and sweet. Well done.

Originally Posted by rolexjackson

Fair point Omar I wish I Was one of the 4 … i admire your ability to do math!


Life is short buy the watch-

Me too

[worldofoyster]

Originally Posted by omar-rye

Did you ask them why one of the four wasn’t sold to you?

According to ChatGPT, there are 1800 ADs and boutiques worldwide. Also, according to ChatGPT, Rolex currently has 170 references in its lineup. It’s rumoured that Rolex produces around 1,000,000 watches annually. Dividing a million watches by 170 references gives approximately 5882 watches per reference. Then, dividing 5882 by 1800 ADs and boutiques results in about 3.2 watches per AD. Sounds about right

this is what we're talking about. post back by math and logic

[worldofoyster]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

There are many versions of Daytonas, but hard to believe they make more Daytonas than Subs.

Seeing Subs in the wild is fairly common, but Daytonas are a rare sight for me

Higher margin on the daytona due to its relatively high MSRP

[OU812]

Here's some actual allocation data (from 2021). At a door that sold approx. 600 units for the year, steel versions. Daytona was definitely fewer than Sub or GMT.

Sub date LN 37 units
Sub date LV 19 units
Sub 13 units

Daytona 16 units

GMT BLRO 17 units
GMT BLNR 22 units

[TheVision]

People usually "shyte" on AD's for gmts saying they get gmts all the time but choose the VIP customers.

Reality is even high volume AD's barely get any gmts ...sub/datejust and explorer are far more shipments.

I have a good rep who allocated sub date to me with no purchase and in 7 weeks and now im on the waitlist for BLNR and she flat out told me sometimes they don't see a single gmt even after multiple shipments. Then all of a sudden, one shipment might have 4/5.

And cos of this, they have over 50 people on the waitlist and told me it might be a year before she can get me one (I'm ok with it).

When it comes to gmt2/daytona, this is where I'd tell people to consider going grey cos its VERY hard to be allocated one at the AD (unless u are a VIP or have a really good bond with the rep). Sub is far easier to get cos AD's get subs in shipments all the time. But then sub waitlist is also 100+ people at most ADs.

[Watch_aficionado]

I hate to say it, but I think most of the SA's at my AD's are full of crap...

[Carguy87]

Originally Posted by Watch_aficionado

I hate to say it, but I think most of the SA's at my AD's are full of crap...

To be fair there are layers to the BS. The management/ownership may be feeding the SA’s excuses and lying about allocations because they are funneling certain pieces to certain SA’s or to their own friends and family, so the SA may be telling you their truth, even if it’s not THE truth.

Bottom line is excuses and supply don’t matter just results right? I don’t care if my AD only gets in one of a certain reference I want as long as they call me for it and not someone else, and on the other side it doesn’t help me if they get 100 of them if I’m not one of the 100 chosen for a call.

[TickTockChuck]

Nice white dial Speedmaster, a real looker too.
Cheers!

[jacowestt]

It really does speak volumes about the supply of the white stainless steel Daytona. The distribution numbers you’ve worked out are fascinating and underscore just how rare these pieces are, even among Rolex ADs in the U.S.

Given that Rolex produces over a million watches annually, it’s intriguing how few of these highly coveted models are making it to market. It certainly puts into perspective the high demand for the Daytona and the strategy Rolex employs in allocating these watches to ADs.

Thanks again for sharing this—it’s definitely food for thought for collectors and enthusiasts alike.

[Michael T]

Originally Posted by rolexjackson

They told me that so far this year they have taken delivery of 4 White Stainless steel Daytona watches. This to me speaks volumes. I googled how many Rolex AD there are in the USA and I came up with 317 so that would mean only 1268 of these were delivered so far this year. I realize that there will be some dealers that get more than others but when they make over 1mm pieces a year you would think they would make more.


Life is short buy the watch-

The math here presupposes that his AD gets an “average” volume of Rolex allocations each year, when you project total USA deliveries of white dial Daytona.

[Nice marmot]

I would say your AD, like most, is full of shit.

[Nodzex]

Originally Posted by rolexjackson

They told me that so far this year they have taken delivery of 4 White Stainless steel Daytona watches. This to me speaks volumes. I googled how many Rolex AD there are in the USA and I came up with 317 so that would mean only 1268 of these were delivered so far this year. I realize that there will be some dealers that get more than others but when they make over 1mm pieces a year you would think they would make more.


Life is short buy the watch-

Man, that Speedy looks better and better every time I see it!

[Calatrava r]

To some extent ADs probably downplay the numbers to people not getting the watches to keep everything on a cordial basis.

[rolexjackson]

Originally Posted by Nodzex

Man, that Speedy looks better and better every time I see it!

It really is great!


Life is short buy the watch-

[Dr.Stu]

Originally Posted by Nodzex

Man, that Speedy looks better and better every time I see it!

It actually is really awesome on the wrist. Pretty much 100% quenched my desire for the new white Daytona. Still looking for the perfect white dial Zenith Daytona, though!

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Victor Cohen

This is also what I tend to think.


Nevertheless, I just took a look at chrono24 and here are the totals for the 12XX series for Daytona, Submariner and GMT

Daytona : 2000

Submariner : 3055

GMT : 4218


All models taken together, there are more SS than PM obviously, except for the Daytona.


My personal thoughts lead me to think two things

Indeed Rolex produces more Daytona PM with risks of unsold, because the entry ticket is much higher but also because the demand is much more concentrated on the SS than the PM. However, the popularity of the Daytona could push a shift into a buyer's mind towards PM, whereas on the other models perhaps less.


The second point is that Daytona models, and more particularly SSs, are so difficult to obtain from ADs that there are fewer of them on the after/grey market. Buyers are also more likely to keep them as they are difficult to obtain.

All of this is pure speculation, but it wouldn't seem crazy to me if the quantity of Daytonas produced wasn't close to, or even equivalent to Sub.

My guess is that a greater proportion of Daytonas sold at ADs are flipped, compared to Subs which are kept by their owners.