Worth buying Submariner date? / HULK discontinue in 2020

[samson66]

Originally Posted by djyolky

I don't think you realize the difference between 40 mm and 41 mm. It's a 1 mm difference. One millimeter.

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Found this photo on another thread. 41 mm Black Bay GMT vs 40 mm Sub C. Look at the difference in perceived size. The Black Bay also has the wider bracelet and longer lug-to-lug distance. Put it all together and it really looks a lot bigger than the Sub (and perfect size for me). Wild isn't it! The Sub almost look puny compared to the GMT

Photo credit: chazadams

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by vicsdca

My prediction:

If the new Submariner remains at 40mm but with thinner lugs, then it will be the best Sub to date. The maxi case will quickly be buried and forgotten. Price will go down significantly.

If super case is discontinued, prices of current Sub will go up.

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Does that include the Paul Newman Daytonas?

Actually, yes, believe it or not.

Assume a '69 vintage for a Paul Newman Daytona. Back then, they cost, what- a couple hundred bucks? If that wasn't the list price, it was certainly the discount price since no one would purchase them.

Say that today, in 2019, it appreciated to roughly $250,000.

That's roughly 15.3% compounded annually.

If you want to say the prices are higher, fine- let's say you sold one for $400,000. Over 50 years, that's 16.42% compounded annually.

I get 16-17% annually just from investing in high-yield REITs. Market's, what, 8-11%, on average?

So one could argue that investing in a Paul Newman Daytona has outperformed the market, but there are two really big caveats:

(1) very, very few people thought Paul Newman Daytonas would become something valuable. It wasn't the ADs, of course- they were sending the watches back to Rolex! If you have the clairvoyance to pick out watches that will reach astronomically heights, my guess is that you wouldn't be looking at Rolex watches.

(2) By the late 1960s, there were thousands of companies making chronographs, never mind watches. I can't imagine how many different types of watches were available on the market. To pick the Paul Newman Daytona to be the 'grail' collectible watch would have been quite the accident.

All for what? 16% annual return?

Adjusted for risk (picking the right watch), that's not really impressive.

OK, what about other watches? The same applies for mint condition 6542 GMTs, 6541 Milgausses, 5517 Milsubs, and so forth. Yes, they're worth so much- but their annual compounded interest rate isn't remotely anything to write home about.

Just buy the watches you love and if many years you're fortunate to sell at a big return, small return, break even, or whatever, at least you would have gained the pleasure of wearing the watch and enjoying it. The rest is just the cherry on top.

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by locutus49

Going back in time and picking one of the few watches out of thousands that gained in value is a fallacy called cherry-picking. Your logic is flawed.

Cherry picking isn't even the most fallacious part of bringing up Paul Newman Daytonas. When you calculate the compounded annual rate of return, they're shockingly not that impressive.

FWIW I'd totally blow the $250K on one if I had the money-but that's the WIS in me speaking.

Originally Posted by djgallo

Has nothing to do with logic....it‘s called history, and facts. In addition to the Paul Newman Daytona there are many watches previously sold that are worth much more today than what they originally sold for.

It has everything to do with logic. He's saying that you can't choose one watch like the Daytona and let its performance apply to investing in any Rolex watch. And he's correct.

[Tommy Smokeshow]

has any1 thought of the hulk relaunching in PM maybe yellow gold?

[WatchLurv]

Everyone has a crystal ball.

Let me summon mine......... Yes, it says nothing. Long list as ever. Prices? Depends on the Hong Kong protest.

[Rosex]

I bet that production on the Hulk has stopped and they are now making the new Sub.

Rolex have made a few thousand of the last few "old" subs and are trickling them to the network while we wait for 2020. Look at the previous GMT, on a rare occasion they still show up at ADs but production stopped a year or more ago.

So effectively the Sub as we know it is already discontinued.

[whited3]

In bazel 2020 Rolex will unveil the all new submariner price tag with platinum filled dollar signs and zeros

[123Blueface]

[peterpl]

I heard from a respected source that they heard Rolex will discontinue not only the Hulk but also the Bluesy and the ND sub.

Now to go and find each of the above and hoard as many as I can. Hoping to retire in 2021 :) - easy $30k profit on each of them no problems at all.

[legedema]

I would love to have a 41 or 42mm Sub

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I heard from a respected source that they heard Rolex will discontinue not only the Hulk but also the Bluesy and the ND sub.

Now to go and find each of the above and hoard as many as I can. Hoping to retire in 2021 :) - easy $30k profit on each of them no problems at all.

I can believe the bluesy and hulk going bye....but not the no date sub....no way.

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by daOnlyBG

Cherry picking isn't even the most fallacious part of bringing up Paul Newman Daytonas. When you calculate the compounded annual rate of return, they're shockingly not that impressive.

FWIW I'd totally blow the $250K on one if I had the money-but that's the WIS in me speaking.



It has everything to do with logic. He's saying that you can't choose one watch like the Daytona and let its performance apply to investing in any Rolex watch. And he's correct.

Oh really.....In addition to the Daytona‘s I can make a long list of sport watch‘s that sell today for considerably more than they did when originally purchased.

So for whatever reason you may not like it....but those are the facts.

[locutus49]

The truth is NO ONE knows what will happen at Basel and every year people make predictions that are wrong.

[Montremoi]

Originally Posted by locutus49

The truth is NO ONE knows what will happen at Basel and every year people make predictions that are wrong.

But they also make predictions that are right.

[Boaters]

Originally Posted by swils8610

Does anyone buy a Rolex to wear and not worry about value? Buy what you like and wear it...if you want an investment Rolex, buy one and put it away for 30 years unworn and hope for the best.


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Very well said

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Oh really.....In addition to the Daytona‘s I can make a long list of sport watch‘s that sell today for considerably more than they did when originally purchased.

So for whatever reason you may not like it....but those are the facts.

[Jedahl]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

Don’t over analyze it.
No one knows what will happen next year, and as they say “a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush”

He said it all.